Other games with value is early lines>
(1 Unit) Memphis -12 @ SFLA, (1 Unit) NC +10 @ GT,
(1/2 Unit)BG-6.5 @ Buff, (1 Unit)NW-6 vs Minne,
(1/2 unit) WV+7 @ Okla, (1/2 Unit) Iowa+9 @ WISC
(1 Unit) WKY-6 @ Rice, (1/2 Unit) Tulsa+10 @ HOU,
(1/2 Unit) Texas +19.5 @ TCU, (1/2 Unit)Duke-6.5 vs BC,
(1 Unit)N.ILL -3 @ CM, (1/2 Unit) SJ ST+21.5 @ Auburn,
(1 Unit) SC +3.2 @ Mizzo, (1/2 Unit) Ark +7 @ Tenn,
(2 Unit) Mich-11.5 @ Mary, (1 Unit) Colo St +6.5 @ Utah St,
(1 Unit) UTSA-2 @ UTEP,
(1 Unit) Memphis -12 @ SFLA, (1 Unit) NC +10 @ GT,
(1/2 Unit)BG-6.5 @ Buff, (1 Unit)NW-6 vs Minne,
(1/2 unit) WV+7 @ Okla, (1/2 Unit) Iowa+9 @ WISC
(1 Unit) WKY-6 @ Rice, (1/2 Unit) Tulsa+10 @ HOU,
(1/2 Unit) Texas +19.5 @ TCU, (1/2 Unit)Duke-6.5 vs BC,
(1 Unit)N.ILL -3 @ CM, (1/2 Unit) SJ ST+21.5 @ Auburn,
(1 Unit) SC +3.2 @ Mizzo, (1/2 Unit) Ark +7 @ Tenn,
(2 Unit) Mich-11.5 @ Mary, (1 Unit) Colo St +6.5 @ Utah St,
(1 Unit) UTSA-2 @ UTEP,
Adding for .55 unit: MIZZ -3.5 vs SCAR
This is purely a situation play, as the numbers only like MIZZ to barely cover this. I don't play situations much, but it seems like a good spot for MIZZ to play harder than SCAR, given a loss and a win respectively last week. First road start for SCAR QB Nunez, and MiZZ still has a pretty good defense. It tells you how poor MIZZ' offense is playing this year that the line is this low after SCAR got cremated at UGA just a couple of weeks ago. They didn't have a terrible game @ Kentucky, and were really only let down by their pass defense or they are right there for the win. Nunez is not going to have that same kind of success.
This is purely a situation play, as the numbers only like MIZZ to barely cover this. I don't play situations much, but it seems like a good spot for MIZZ to play harder than SCAR, given a loss and a win respectively last week. First road start for SCAR QB Nunez, and MiZZ still has a pretty good defense. It tells you how poor MIZZ' offense is playing this year that the line is this low after SCAR got cremated at UGA just a couple of weeks ago. They didn't have a terrible game @ Kentucky, and were really only let down by their pass defense or they are right there for the win. Nunez is not going to have that same kind of success.
Adding for .55 Unit: TTU +15.5 vs Baylor (-105 neutral field)
Well, let me get down for at least a little bit on this one. Baylor offense plenty capable of destroying defenses like TTU's, just banking on TTU keeping up like they did against TCU, though Baylor's defense is currently better than the injured Frog's squad. TTU QB Mahomes gimpy yesterday, hope that's not going to be an issue.
Well, let me get down for at least a little bit on this one. Baylor offense plenty capable of destroying defenses like TTU's, just banking on TTU keeping up like they did against TCU, though Baylor's defense is currently better than the injured Frog's squad. TTU QB Mahomes gimpy yesterday, hope that's not going to be an issue.
Adding for .55 Unit: ASU +14 @ UCLA
I liked both UCLA and USC to cover yesterday, but neither was as good as the final score might have you think, lol. This is a good match up for the ASU defense, who is better against the run than the pass. They're still pretty good against the pass, give or take a few short passes that went for abnormally long distances when they played TA&M and USC, lol.
I liked both UCLA and USC to cover yesterday, but neither was as good as the final score might have you think, lol. This is a good match up for the ASU defense, who is better against the run than the pass. They're still pretty good against the pass, give or take a few short passes that went for abnormally long distances when they played TA&M and USC, lol.
Adding for .55 unit: ODU +20.5 @ MRSH
Sure I'd like a 21, but I'm not holding my breath it'll get there. Both of these teams have seen the lack of last year's starting QB (and running backs, etc.) send their offenses plummeting faster than a depressed German pilot. These might literally be the two offenses with the most amount of negative regression this year. Marshall's current problem is compounded by the fact that they're down to their backup QB already. #! Birdsong is "?" for this game, but I'm not gonna' sweat it too bad if he ends up playing, he hasn't been very good either. Marshall absolutely didn't deserve to cover the 6.5 points against Kent, but they got the game into OT and the ball first in the 2nd OT, got the touchdown and held Kent out. It was my only really lucky cover of the day, requiring a specific sequence of events to happen. Trust me, I've been downgrading Marshall's projections as the season has gone along, but it's been such a sharp downturn that it was beyond what I'd anticipated.
I've docked ODU's projections beyond the normal amount now, too. They've had pretty anemic offensive numbers these past two games, failing to reach 200 yards in either of those games. So yeah, against anyone not named Eastern Michigan they have been bad. Marshall's defense had been playing okay, but then they let Kent have their first average+ game on offense this year.
With both offenses so far down, 20.5 is a lot of points to cover, which is creating the value on the not just Old, but Expired and Moldy Around the Rim Dominion.
Sure I'd like a 21, but I'm not holding my breath it'll get there. Both of these teams have seen the lack of last year's starting QB (and running backs, etc.) send their offenses plummeting faster than a depressed German pilot. These might literally be the two offenses with the most amount of negative regression this year. Marshall's current problem is compounded by the fact that they're down to their backup QB already. #! Birdsong is "?" for this game, but I'm not gonna' sweat it too bad if he ends up playing, he hasn't been very good either. Marshall absolutely didn't deserve to cover the 6.5 points against Kent, but they got the game into OT and the ball first in the 2nd OT, got the touchdown and held Kent out. It was my only really lucky cover of the day, requiring a specific sequence of events to happen. Trust me, I've been downgrading Marshall's projections as the season has gone along, but it's been such a sharp downturn that it was beyond what I'd anticipated.
I've docked ODU's projections beyond the normal amount now, too. They've had pretty anemic offensive numbers these past two games, failing to reach 200 yards in either of those games. So yeah, against anyone not named Eastern Michigan they have been bad. Marshall's defense had been playing okay, but then they let Kent have their first average+ game on offense this year.
With both offenses so far down, 20.5 is a lot of points to cover, which is creating the value on the not just Old, but Expired and Moldy Around the Rim Dominion.
Dayton, Ohio. Guided by Voices, bruh. #MostUnderratedRockBandEver
Toledo has some impressive wins, Ball State has had some impressive losses, I think it plays out tight. I'm really excited for these MAC games this year, the upper half of teams are all playing pretty well and capable of knocking each other off on any given day.
My lines final score for last week. In my new Cheat Sheet format (available before lines come out - details at my website).
On the few lines where the market went strongly against my lines -- I won with Western Michigan, the biggest steamer against my lines. You can say under thrown this or whatever excuses, but at the end of the game it was WMU who survived against the early spread after giving up a short pick 6 and having a FG blocked. No woulda' coulda' shoulda's are that tangible. The Navy Over -- last week I got the market, this week the market got me, but it came down to Navy not kicking a FG on 4th and 1 late in the game, instead failing on the fourth down play. So not a great pick either way, unlike the previous week against ECU. The TXST @ HOU Over -- honestly, I hadn't raised Houston's offensive projections enough to match their reality, because they'd only played one FBS opponent before this week. TXST's defense is bad, but we mostly already knew that. At the end of the day the market closed on the correct total of 73 for a push.
On the few lines where the market went strongly against my lines -- I won with Western Michigan, the biggest steamer against my lines. You can say under thrown this or whatever excuses, but at the end of the game it was WMU who survived against the early spread after giving up a short pick 6 and having a FG blocked. No woulda' coulda' shoulda's are that tangible. The Navy Over -- last week I got the market, this week the market got me, but it came down to Navy not kicking a FG on 4th and 1 late in the game, instead failing on the fourth down play. So not a great pick either way, unlike the previous week against ECU. The TXST @ HOU Over -- honestly, I hadn't raised Houston's offensive projections enough to match their reality, because they'd only played one FBS opponent before this week. TXST's defense is bad, but we mostly already knew that. At the end of the day the market closed on the correct total of 73 for a push.
Thanks, Mark.
Woke up just now to see that the lines were realllllly hit in the direction my lines would indicate on every single game with decent value. The action on UTEP last night was just a juke and UTSA has been hammered hard now. That was the one line move that had me scratching my head last night. All 3 of those games with P5 teams where the line was 7.5 or 8 -- I did have leans on all the dogs there, but not quite enough value to bet them even being on the right side of 7. Maybe I should've taken a position to try middles, as of now they'e come down and shouldn't finish higher than 7. The question if is they close lower than 7. One game I'm going to have to look at for further info. is MISS @ FLA, as I'm not sure why that one has crossed above 7 when I'm showing a little value on FLA. I would've taken APP at -17 for a little but that ship sailed before I even got to put a play it and I'm not touching it as high as it's gotten, in spite of how badly they beat a bad ODU team while WYO is still a winless floundering mess.
Adding for 1 Unit: IND +21 vs OSU
Is this going to be a thing, still? OSU getting bet up every week in spite of failing to cover their last 3? I'm not seeing any significant injuries for IND that would otherwise explain this line moving up. IND does have the leading rusher in the nation and watching the OSU game last week you can move the ball on their defense (scoring touchdowns against them might be another matter, though). IND has a decent passing game to provide necessary balance, too. IND's defense is still ripe for ripping through, but playing at home they'll play hard and score enough to lose in the 35-21 ball park.
Woke up just now to see that the lines were realllllly hit in the direction my lines would indicate on every single game with decent value. The action on UTEP last night was just a juke and UTSA has been hammered hard now. That was the one line move that had me scratching my head last night. All 3 of those games with P5 teams where the line was 7.5 or 8 -- I did have leans on all the dogs there, but not quite enough value to bet them even being on the right side of 7. Maybe I should've taken a position to try middles, as of now they'e come down and shouldn't finish higher than 7. The question if is they close lower than 7. One game I'm going to have to look at for further info. is MISS @ FLA, as I'm not sure why that one has crossed above 7 when I'm showing a little value on FLA. I would've taken APP at -17 for a little but that ship sailed before I even got to put a play it and I'm not touching it as high as it's gotten, in spite of how badly they beat a bad ODU team while WYO is still a winless floundering mess.
Adding for 1 Unit: IND +21 vs OSU
Is this going to be a thing, still? OSU getting bet up every week in spite of failing to cover their last 3? I'm not seeing any significant injuries for IND that would otherwise explain this line moving up. IND does have the leading rusher in the nation and watching the OSU game last week you can move the ball on their defense (scoring touchdowns against them might be another matter, though). IND has a decent passing game to provide necessary balance, too. IND's defense is still ripe for ripping through, but playing at home they'll play hard and score enough to lose in the 35-21 ball park.
ULL's passing game, which was average with QB Broadway last year, has really dropped off this year. I line it at LT -16.4, so not looking at that one for a play at all.
Adding for .55 unit: FLA +7.5 vs MISS
Don't love this play, but what the heck. FLA had it's first sub-par game on defense last week, which doesn't bode well facing the best offense they've seen this year with Ole Miss. The "I ain't gonna' implicate myself by taking this drug test!" players are back for Florida (useful if FLA wants to continue their history of waffling on a true starting QB). I look for FLA to have a slight advantage in the run game, and Ole Miss to have a pretty sizable one in the passing game. That's a good enough type of match up for the home team on the right side of a key number to back for a bit.
Adding for .55 unit: FLA +7.5 vs MISS
Don't love this play, but what the heck. FLA had it's first sub-par game on defense last week, which doesn't bode well facing the best offense they've seen this year with Ole Miss. The "I ain't gonna' implicate myself by taking this drug test!" players are back for Florida (useful if FLA wants to continue their history of waffling on a true starting QB). I look for FLA to have a slight advantage in the run game, and Ole Miss to have a pretty sizable one in the passing game. That's a good enough type of match up for the home team on the right side of a key number to back for a bit.
Hope my Totals are as spot on as my Sides have been so far this week, because I feel like I just got some pretty good grabs.
1 Unit:
NMSU @ UNM OVER 65
CSU @ USU OVER 47.5 (Don't worry about the QB change for USU)
GASO @ ULM UNDER 51
VAN @ MTU UNDER 53
BC @ DUKE UNDER 41 (Wanted that 41, minimum)
ALA @ UGA OVER 52 (Gynormous value)
WKU @ RICE OVER 69.5
FIU @ MASS OVER 54.5 (What, is there a Noreastern forecast next weekend?)
TOL @ BALL UNDER 56
OHIO @ AKRON UNDER 46
IOWA @ WIS OVER 46.5 (Ruh roh, I'm back to liking the Over on a Wisky game -- been on the right side of every Wisky total last 3 weeks.)
PUR @ MSU UNDER 59
.55 Unit: (bumped up my half units 10% this week to reflect 10% growth in bankroll so far)
HAW & BSU UNDER 51.5 (may add another 1/2 if the number rises above 52 for whatever odd reason)
MISS @ FLA OVER 51.5 (one of the weaker plays I just put in)
M-OH @ KENT UNDER 46.5
UNC @ GT OVER 62.5 (GT frequently takes Under action when I like the Over, fyi)
SCAR @ MIZZ UNDER 43
1 Unit:
NMSU @ UNM OVER 65
CSU @ USU OVER 47.5 (Don't worry about the QB change for USU)
GASO @ ULM UNDER 51
VAN @ MTU UNDER 53
BC @ DUKE UNDER 41 (Wanted that 41, minimum)
ALA @ UGA OVER 52 (Gynormous value)
WKU @ RICE OVER 69.5
FIU @ MASS OVER 54.5 (What, is there a Noreastern forecast next weekend?)
TOL @ BALL UNDER 56
OHIO @ AKRON UNDER 46
IOWA @ WIS OVER 46.5 (Ruh roh, I'm back to liking the Over on a Wisky game -- been on the right side of every Wisky total last 3 weeks.)
PUR @ MSU UNDER 59
.55 Unit: (bumped up my half units 10% this week to reflect 10% growth in bankroll so far)
HAW & BSU UNDER 51.5 (may add another 1/2 if the number rises above 52 for whatever odd reason)
MISS @ FLA OVER 51.5 (one of the weaker plays I just put in)
M-OH @ KENT UNDER 46.5
UNC @ GT OVER 62.5 (GT frequently takes Under action when I like the Over, fyi)
SCAR @ MIZZ UNDER 43
.55 unit: ODU @ MRSH Under 53
Profiled this as an Under+, but didn't see a ton of value on the opening # of 54. You can see which way the wind is blowing, though, so going to lock in a little something above 52 here.
On a side note, I would have made this total 76.5 with last year's teams, lol.
Profiled this as an Under+, but didn't see a ton of value on the opening # of 54. You can see which way the wind is blowing, though, so going to lock in a little something above 52 here.
On a side note, I would have made this total 76.5 with last year's teams, lol.
