The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 04 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: KU +13 @ RUTG
1 Unit: BAY -33 vs RICE
1/2 Unit: BUFF pick vs NEV
1 Unit: PSU -12 vs SDSU (-115)
1/2 Unit: ARK +3.5 @ TA&M (EV)
1 Unit: M-OH +21.5 @ WKUj
1/2 Unit: MTU +7 @ ILL
1/2 Unit: ALA -39 vs ULM
1 Unit: TTU +9.5 vs TCU (-120)
1/2 Unit: CAL -2 @ WASH
1 Unit: USC -6 @ ASU (-112)

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: USM +24.5 @ NEB

 

[GoSooners]

BOL has TT at +13. Man has Rutgers taken a big fall. Only 13 point faves over the worst team in the Power 5.

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: GT -10 @ DUKE (+105)

 

[GoSooners]

Wow, that TTU line changed fast. 3.5 points in a matter of seconds.

 

[thecruncher]

BOL has TT at +13. Man has Rutgers taken a big fall. Only 13 point faves over the worst team in the Power 5.

My BOL lines was and still is +9.5 (-120). I like TTU to win, baby!

Wow, would've loved that +13 obviously. I wasn't quite ready for the insta-grabs.

 

[GoSooners]

My BOL lines was and still is +9.5 (-120). I like TTU to win, baby!

Wow, would've loved that +13 obviously. I wasn't quite ready for the insta-grabs.

It wouldn't surprise me..

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: CMU +28.5 @ MSU

 

[thecruncher]

Crud, some of my lines seemed a bit off and after a necessary adjustment I'm not showing as much value on the ALA & BAY plays. I'd pass on both of those now if you haven't got down on them, but I'll have to ride them out and see where the line goes. All the other plays still have good value.

Adding for 1 Unit: OHIO +12.5 @ MINN

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: VAN +27 @ MISS
Adding for 1/2 Unit: BALL +18 @ NW

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: SYR +24 vs LSU (-105)

This line has already moved up from 23 to 24, but I'm willing to go against that little movement. SYR is getting pretty thin at QB, but LSU hasn't shown anything in the passing game yet. Fournette is a super beast, it's true, but SYR's run defense has been pretty good this year, albeit against far inferior run offenses. I don't bank on motivation generally, but this can't be a spot where LSU is particularly motivated.

 

[thecruncher]

I don't recommend the GT play anymore, either, as my line is pretty much right on that now.

Grr, because of commitments yesterday I was racing the clock trying to have my lines ready today, and I wasn't quite ready when the first lines came out. Balls.

 

[silver7]

Crud, some of my lines seemed a bit off and after a necessary adjustment I'm not showing as much value on the ALA & BAY plays. I'd pass on both of those now if you haven't got down on them, but I'll have to ride them out and see where the line goes. All the other plays still have good value.

Adding for 1 Unit: OHIO +12.5 @ MINN

Best play on the board, pound it. Cats W SU!!! Leidner is awful. BOL

 

[MoneyMiller]

Cal-2! Were almost laying a td in austin. Lots of travel tho

 

[thecruncher]

Week #3 Recap -- the score of my lines against the market Saturday morning before I had to leave. Some of these may have closed a bit differently but I wasn't around to track them. I had a few outliers on totals that tell me I have some refining to do, and I know specifically what I have to do. Still, did very well over all on totals, with the median score being a full point on the market. Sides were positive, but didn't gain as much market value. I ran well on sides, though, when it came to wagers. I experimented with some added plays on totals this past week, which is why I ended up with so many totals plays, lol. I think the adds were pretty near break even. It was unfortunate that I had to be off the grid most of the day, as there were some totals I was going to buy back on and just didn't have time, and the buy backs were the right move.

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: HAW +27 @ WIS

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: FIU +14 @ LT

 

[thecruncher]

Cal-2! Were almost laying a td in austin. Lots of travel tho

Lots of travel = less distractions from home.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Like the way ur thinking bud, have to say i was shocked u put up a unit against my owls.
I try to keep it on the low. RICE IS GOLD, have been an atm for almost a decade.
Scary good as home faves. Not playing them this sat, but just putting it out there.

 

[thecruncher]

Like the way ur thinking bud, have to say i was shocked u put up a unit against my owls.
I try to keep it on the low. RICE IS GOLD, have been an atm for almost a decade.
Scary good as home faves. Not playing them this sat, but just putting it out there.

You must have missed the post where I backed off the play, lol. I had a spreadsheet adjustment to do that was jacking up a few spreads. Other than Driphus, though, Rice doesn't look good to me this year, especially defensively. I think Baylor is gonna score batshit crazy on 'em. Like I said, I wouldn't bet Baylor now, but I still like the Bears to win by 35 or so.