The Sports Cruncher's 2009 Preseason Week #3 Write Ups

[thecruncher]

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COwner%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" name="City"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" name="place"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <wunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <wontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id=ieooui></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> Jaguars @ Eagles<o></o>
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Play: OVER 37 (strong) JAX +7.5 (medium)<o></o>
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This dogfight…er, bird vs. cat fight Thursday night features the return of Michael Vick to the football field. Coach Reid said Mike will see some action at QB with the first team offense, so it will be interesting to see how quick old Vick can learn new tricks. And thank God that the offensive gimmickry unleashed by the Dolphins last year and subsequently picked up by many teams is called the “Wildcat,” and not the “Wilddog,” or we’d never see the end of the clever pun parade.<o></o>
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The Eagles are well-known as a pass-happy team, and this preseason has been no different. As evidenced by the numbers, teams run the ball a higher percentage of the time in the preseason than they do during the regular season. In preweek #1 the Eagles ran a fairly balanced offense in spite of falling behind early to the Patriots. Last week they were one of 6 teams to throw the ball for more than 60.2% of their offensive plays after again falling behind early to the Colts.<o></o>
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Last week the Jaguars were another of the 6 teams that favored the pass heavily in their game. They did find themselves trailing by 10 points fairly early into the 2^nd half, but had cut the lead to 7 by the time the 4^th quarter got underway. The Jaguars were also 1 of only 5 teams to favor the pass in week #1 in their game versus the Dolphins, when they never trailed by more than 3 points – a pretty strong indicator that working on their passing game is a priority this preseason. Working on their run game doesn’t appear to be a priority, as their top back, Maurice Jones-Drew, has had only one carry in each of the first two games. <o></o>
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A proclivity for passing leads to higher scoring games, as long as the passing games can be relied on for at least average results. Should both of these teams have at least near-average success with their passing games? Yes, they should. <o></o>
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Let’s start with the negatives for the Eagles, though. Their offensive line, barring center <st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jackson</st1lace></st1:city>, has not played in the preseason yet. That’s correct – 4 of their 5 starters have yet to see the field. Brothers Stacy and Shawn Andrews are supposed to hold down the right side of the line, but have both been out due to injuries. Shaun missed all of last year with a herniated disk and reinjured his back on the first day of camp. Stacy is recovering from a January ACL surgery. There is a good chance Stacy will play this week, however. Winston Justice has been filling in at right tackle and has been much improved from his former turnstile style of “blocking.” Todd Herremans, LG, will be out for the entire preseason, and possibly longer. Newly acquired Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters is listed as probable for the first time so I’m guessing will see some playing time. The Eagles have been uncomfortable in the ground game, and averaged an embarrassingly low 1.4 yards per carry on 17 attempts versus the Colts last week with no first downs.<o></o>
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Moving on to the positives – the Eagles should have their best offensive game of the preseason versus an injured Jaguars defense. The Jaguars started off with a strong run defense against the Dolphins, then slipped to average versus the Bucs last week, while injuries have mounted. The Jaguars will be without their starting 3 linebackers in this game. It doesn’t matter when Vick enters the game – whenever he does he’ll be facing non-starting linebackers forced to make difficult reads and reactions. Brian Westbrook is also now listed as probable, but how many plays the “King of Playing Hurt” will go in his first game back is up in the air. He will present another tough challenge for the backup linebackers in pass coverage. The Jaguars have been only average in pass defense versus two average pass offenses. Now they face an explosive pass offense and will more than likely have a poor day of pass defense.<o></o>
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The Eagles had a very tough defense last year, but were hit with some early injuries in camp this year. Their run defense hasn’t suffered, as they limited both the Patriots and Colts to less than 3.8 yards per carry in both games. They’ve had average numbers in pass defense versus one half of ball from Brady, and one half from Peyton, which doesn’t add up to good pass defense. Garrard has had some success passing the ball so far, including a couple of bombs to Troy Williamson, and will hopefully be playing for 3 quarters of this game, as his primary backup Bouman has been dreadful (9/26 for 120 yards last game).<o></o>
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The match ups for both teams indicate that they will continue to pass the ball at a higher rate than the average team in this game. Both teams are winless in the preseason, and with this being the week #3 dress rehearsal game will both play to win, which means doing what rates to work best for both of them for the entire game (unless the score is extremely lopsided in the 2^nd half) – pass the ball. Garrard is no Brady or Manning, but he’s a solid QB nonetheless, and should have decent success versus a defense that allowed rookie Curtis Painter to go 11/19 for 116 yards (though with no tds and 1 int), and Peyton to go 10/14 for 167 yards and 2 tds. CB Ellis Hobbs is freshly injured, to boot.<o></o>
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Every drive for both teams should present a decent opportunity to put points on the board through the first 3 quarters of this game, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Over 37 is already on or past the number by the end of the 3^rd quarter, and that the Jaguars get the lone 4^th quarter score that backdoors the cover for them.<o></o>
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Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Jaguars 20<o></o>

 

[jbragg10]

good luck

 

[McCrazy]

I'm on the other side, but good luck anyways Cruncher.

 

[ClayBetting]

I'm on both these plays. In fact, you helped me decide to raise my Over bet from 1/2 to 2 units. GL!

 

[midman2161]

Anyone know if this is gonna be on tv for those without directv? NFL Network or somethin?

 

[thecruncher]

I'm seeing the MIA/TB on Fox, with the PHI/JAX game on NFL network after it's already over at 11pm EST. Lame, if there was one game people wanted to watch live, it was this one.

I also think I heard this morning that Vick is going to play in the 1st quarter of this game. Not what I wanted to see for my 1st half Over play, so fingers crossed that he either creates some big plays or sits down quickly if he doesn't.

 

[midman2161]

Yeah it is absurd who wants to watch Bucs Fins when this game is on? Crazy that NFL Net cant even show a preseason game live

 

[simple-man]

good luck cruncher

 

[thecruncher]

"so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Over 37 is already on or past the number by the end of the 3rd quarter"

40 points with 7 and half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, sweeeeet.

Check, that, 47 points with 4+ minutes left in the 3rd, lol.

 

[Huego]

nice call man

 

[Green17]

Keep a' Crunchin!

Thank you sir.

 

[thecruncher]

No write up for the first game, but WAS +4.5 is a strong play, as they can afford to fall behind early when Brady is in the game and make up the difference in the 2nd half, challenging for the win or the backdoor cover at worst.

I will have a write up for the later game, though. GL all.

 

[BORO]

Nice work yesterday.

 

[thecruncher]

Packers @ Cardinals

Play: Under 41.5 (strong)

While the Packers are yet to face an above average defense this preseason, the Cardinals have faced the Steelers #1 2008 defense, and the Chargers #18 (though their defense rates to be better this year with the return of their sparkplug of a linebacker, Merriman). The Packers have had to do little besides let Aaron Rodgers get a couple of scores for them early, then do almost nothing offensively the rest of the way when Matt Flynn (newly gimped shoulder) and Brian Brohm (don’t blink or you might miss him leaving the roster) spell Matt at QB.

The Packers’ defense, to be honest, has faced little in the way of potent offensive talent versus the Lions and Browns, and has been fortunate enough to get several turnovers so far when the opposing offenses have threatened to score. The Packers’ defense has been getting turnovers at any spot on the field so far, really, as I think they’ve logged 8 takeaways. While turnovers are nice to get, they can’t be counted on. So while their defense has been pretty good against both the run and pass, I don’t have them ranked in the top 5 for defensive performances so far this preseason, and that’s not even taking the competition into account. The Packers’ starting cornerbacks might not even play to the half, to be honest, and they’re still a bit dinged up at safety.

It’s starting to sound like a write up for the Over at this point, so let’s get down to the factors favoring the Under. Firstly, the line dropped from 42 to 41 midweek – the sharp money favors the Under in this game. Today, game day, sees the line climbing back to 41.5 at many shops. BookMaker and TheGreek are two of the last holdouts at 41, but it just went to 41.5 at BM at this very moment. Pinnacle is holding on a line courting Over action as well.

The Cardinals’ starting defense has only played in the first quarter so far, and has done pretty well, not allowing any points. Adrian Wilson says their defense is 100% better than what it was before. Last year’s Linebacker Coach Bill Davis was promoted to defensive coordinator to replace the released Clancy Pendergast. So far it’s looking positive for the Cardinals’ defense, but this first half versus the Packers will be a real test. The Packers are healthy at all the offensive skill positions and will test the Cardinals’ defense on every possession – as long as it’s Rodgers taking the snaps, which will account for about half of the game. The Cardinals’ are projected to play their starters into the third quarter, which will make more of a difference on defense than offense, at this point.

The Cardinals’ offense will most likely be without WRs Boldin and Breaston and rookie RB Beanie Wells. That’s two of their top three receivers out for a team that likes to go 4 wide and air it out, something they did on 38% of their plays last season, tops in the league. Their passing game is a bit crippled right now, as a result, and won’t even have the benefit of having their top QB in for the entire game. Old Man Warner may make it to halftime, but that would have to be the maximum. There’s no reason to risk him in the preseason, and they are still sorting out the backup roles with Leinart, St. Pierre, and Palko.

With bullets missing from their offensive gun, and a 2nd half rotation of different fingers on the trigger, the Cardinals’ offense isn’t poised to have a breakout game versus a decent Packers’ defense here. The Packers are only suited to one half of offensive production at best in this game. One half of okay or even above average offense for both teams is not enough to put this game over the “high for preseason” total of 41.5.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 17 – Cardinals 20

 

[thecruncher]

Washington, winner. Write up? Epic fail, lol. This first attempt at preseason handicapping has been an up and down affair, to be sure. Let's see if we can get back on the up.

Chargers @ Falcons

Play: Chargers +3 (strong) Under 42 (medium)

The Falcons, in spite of being mere seconds away from a preseason 2-0 record, are largely untested as their games have been against two of the worst teams of last season, the Lions and Rams. The Lions and Rams had the two worst run defenses last year, the Lions had the worst pass defense, and the Rams were only a few spots ahead at 27th (by my rescored rankings). For a balanced offense like the Falcons, it should have been easy pickings for their first team offense. Matt Ryan has gone 12/15 for 114 yards and one touchdown in his limited series. The Falcons have definitely upgraded at the TE position with Tony Gonzalez, but if there is one team that is familiar with Tony, it is, of course, the Chargers. The Falcons’ first half defense has done well at limiting opponent’s points, surrendering only 3 to both Detroit and St. Louis.

Good offense, solid defense? Too soon, too soon to say, I say. When looking at the entire game stats, the Lions outgained the Falcons 454 to 228 in offensive yards. That’s almost getting doubled up. Last week, when Ryan played deeper into the game, the Falcons outgained the Rams 331 to 283 yards. That’s an average of 279 yards per game versus the two worst defenses of last year. Those 283 yards allowed to the Rams were versus a subpar offensive team missing their starting quarterback. The 454 yards surrendered to the Lions were versus a QB on his 4th or 5th wind, Culpepper, and a rookie, Stafford, who is not projected to be a great NFL quarterback by collegiate statistical measurements. An argument can be made that most of the damage was done or left undone by the Atlanta non-starters, but it doesn’t bode well even in week #3 of the preseason where the starters see the most playing time, because the starters still typically won’t be playing the 4th quarter.

Turning to the Chargers – have they managed to find the electrical socket yet this preseason? At the QB position, Rivers has not seen much action, throwing only 8 passes in the first game, and 7 in the second. He did gain 116 yards on his 7 attempts versus the Cardinals, which is a pretty healthy yards per attempt average. One thing is for certain, though – the Chargers have played two tougher defenses than the Falcons have. Not top-notch defenses, mind you, but both better than the Lions and Rams, as you can’t get any worse than worst and second worst defense in the league last year. The Chargers’ ground game hasn’t done much yet, but Tomlinson and Sproles have combined for only 18 of the 54 preseason rush attempts. The Chargers’ run defense has been phenomenal so far, limiting their opponent’s to 2.8 and 3.0 yards per carry.

When you look at all the pieces, there seems to be no reason the Chargers shouldn’t score on most of their possessions with Phillip Rivers in the game, and they stand a pretty good chance of doing the same with Billy Volek in there. If current trends continue, Ryan should go a little deeper into this game than Rivers, probably into the 3rd quarter, while Rivers probably won’t go past the half. As long as Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t enter the game for the Chargers, it’s all good in the hood. The Falcons’ on the other hand, will find it more challenging to score on any of their possessions, especially when their cavalcade of NFL-untested quarterbacks replace Ryan. Rivers is a proven quarterback in this league without a doubt. At this point of his career, he may be the top quarterback a franchise would choose to run their offense for several years to come. Matt Ryan has one decent year under his belt, but his QB rating is only 3 points higher than that of the average starting quarterback in the league this year. He is definitely a solid QB, but he benefitted from catching many teams gearing up to stop the Falcons’ run offense while taking their chances forcing a rookie QB to beat them through the air, something Ryan did prove able to do on most occasions. He won’t be taking anyone by surprise this year, and he won’t be able to outduel Phillip Rivers, and the Falcons will lose their first preseason home game.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Falcons 17