The Sports Cruncher's 2009 Preseason Week #1 Write Ups

thecruncher · Aug 9, 2009

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Bills vs. Titans<o

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Hall of Fame Game<o

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As a general rule, favorites of more than a point are a dicey proposition in most weeks of the preseason, especially week’s number 1 & 4, where more scrubs see action than your local hospital. Not only that, the general sentiment in this game seems to favor taking the points with the Bills as their scrubs may be playing for more roster spots than their counterparts on the Titans. Add to that the general preseason trend of teams with poor records in the prior year doing better than teams with a good winning record, and suddenly I have a bit of a contrarian play on my hands, so here we go, 2009 NFL!<o

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Nobody's at home for this game in <st1:state w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1

lace></st1:state>. Is that to imply that nobody will show up for this first preseason game of the year? Not entirely. It is a nationally televised game, which should get the blood pumping a little bit more for all players who find playing time. Being a week #1 game, nearly the entire training camp roster should see the field at some point. And hey, it’s football – pride and testosterone take over once you’re lining up against an opponent.<o

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Kerry Collins is locked in as the Titans’ starting quarterback, and being long in the tooth he should see very little, if any time on the field this game, as this is his first training camp being #1 on the depth chart. The real story here involves Vince Young and newly acquired 3rd string QB, Patrick Ramsey. Ramsey has more career NFL pass attempts than Young (913 to 775) and a higher career QB rating (74.9 to 68.8). The average QB rating of the 2nd string QBs in training camps (with more than 50 career pass attempts) right now is 75.5, close to Ramsey's rating, while the average QB rating of 3rd string QBs in camps (with once again more than 50 career pass attempts) is 69.6, closer to Vince Young's rating. So, denials of any competition for the 2nd string QB spot aside, which QB looks more suited for the task of the position based on career numbers? Both Young and Ramsey know that serious playing time in the regular season/playoffs is a distinct possibility if 1. The elderly Collins is injured (though the Titan's O-line was fantastic at protecting him last year, and are all returning this year) and 2. They perform well in preseason games. Vince Young played a lot more in the preseason games last year than a starting QB normally does, with the intention by Coach Fisher, I suspect, of seeing if he could really be the starter. Turns out the answer was “No.” Young should play a lot of series this preseason to see where he’s at as well.<o

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With this kind of experience and motivation (if not stellar ability) at the 2nd and 3rd string QB positions, I expect the Titans to be a threat to score fairly deep into the contest. At 4th position on the QB roster for the Titans is the rookie Alex Mortensen out of <st1:state w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Arkansas</st1

lace></st1:state>. A 4th string QB on the roster is never a good thing for teams who you'd like to cover a point spread in the preseason, but they tend to see significantly less playing time than the 2nd and 3rd string QBs. Preseason week #4 is where 4th string QBs saw the most playing time last year, followed by the 1st, 2nd and 3rd weeks, in that order.<o

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The Bills will have a new 3<sup>RD</sup>/4<sup>th</sup> string QB of their own in this game, Matt Baker, who spent his rookie season with the Cowboys last year, and who is still a regular season playing time virgin.<o

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Trent Edwards comes into the season as the Bills’ starting QB, with arguably the least amount of controversy surrounding this appointment in the last couple of years. He’s the guy, and J.P. Losman is out of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1

lace></st1:city>. Behind Edwards at #2 is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played for the Bengals in Carson Palmer’s lengthy injury absence last year. That was not an easy position to be in, playing from behind in most games, and Fitzpatrick managed only a 66.9 QB rating. So, Edwards should get 2 series tops in this game, and Fitzpatrick 3 or 4. At that point it will be up to Dick Jauron to decide on how to split the remaining series between 4<sup>th</sup> string Baker and 3<sup>rd</sup> string Gibran Hamdam, who has been preseason cannon fodder for Jauron for at least a couple of years now, but has a grand total of 2 pass attempts in the regular season. <o

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And to top it off, OC Schonert will be employing a healthy amount of the no-huddle this year, which doesn’t sound promising early on with QBs with limited NFL experience and a completely rebuilt offensive line that will probably fair better in the run game than pass protection anyway. Any way you slice it or dice it, once Edwards leaves the game for the Bills, the <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1

lace></st1:city> quarterbacks are going to struggle. Heck, they’re going to struggle before Edwards hits the bench, as his 79.1 career QB rating is bound to find it tough going against the Titan’s defensive starters or even 2<sup>nd</sup> stringers.<o

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So the quarterback rotation advantage in this game is firmly on the side of <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:state w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:state></st1

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Coach Jauron is apparently not one to chase the fool’s gold of preseason wins, as his record is a poor 12-20 in preseason games, though the Bills have done better in their first game of the preseason than the remaining others. Maybe with his perennially below average talent, he knows that his best chance to not be shut out in the preseason is in weeks 1 & 4 so he tries a little harder then. Just speculating, lol. Though his job is perhaps approaching the hot seat bubble, unless I hear otherwise, there’s no reason to expect anything that far out of the norm for Jauron and the Bills this preseason in terms of playing the starters deeper than normal. Coach Fisher for the Titans has a 27-21 preseason record. Fisher is a top-notch coach and they have a top-notch system in <st1:state w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1

lace></st1:state>, which gives them superior depth on the roster which leads to more preseason wins. <o

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A key factor for success in the NFL is offensive line continuity. The Titans are returning all 5 starters, which will help them for at least a portion of this game. The Bills lost their disgruntled but lone Pro-Bowl caliber offensive lineman, Jason Peters, to the Eagles during the offseason, and may actually be starting new players at all 5 spots this year. Good luck getting that sorted out early in the year, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1

lace></st1:city>!<o

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In spite of bringing in Terrell Owens at WR and having a couple of good running backs, I’m not sure how the Bills are going to have any offensive success in this game with their completely rebuilt offensive line and poor depth at QB versus a good Titans’ defense. The Titans, with experienced QBs battling for the backup role, a solidly built franchise with a superior head coach with a much better preseason record (where preseason records are typically not indicative of actual team strength – see the Lions 4-0 preseason record of last year. The fact that the Titans would wax the Bills during the regular season has no bearing here) and a phenomenal returning offensive line, should cruise to victory and a cover.<o

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A play on the Titans has the least amount of value of all my recommended preseason plays (especially now that -2.5 at normal juice is no longer available), so it’s just a smaller 0.7% bankroll play, a little something to whet the appetite in the first game of the season, lol. I wouldn’t take the Titans at -3 without some kind of positive juice. Your best option may be to shop around for the best ML on the Titans, as every point below 3 is of far more importance in preseason games. 1 and 2 point victories are common as coaches are looking to win games late, not tie them, to avoid overtime.<o

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Final Score Projection: Titans 17 – Bills 13

ZJP6050 · Aug 9, 2009

good to see ya old man!! back for the year, i hope?! bol in all your endeavors buddy, as always!

thecruncher · Aug 9, 2009

ZJP6050 said:
good to see ya old man!! back for the year, i hope?! bol in all your endeavors buddy, as always!

Thx, brother! So far so good, as the Titans have benefited from the big plays. I'm awful tempted to take the Titans +1 in the 2nd half. Sure, the Bills start with the ball, but it should be Baker and Hamdan at QB for them, versus an experienced Ramsey (and possibly some rookie Mortensen). Fitzpatrick moved the ball pretty well, but they should slow down pretty fast if he's done for the game. Down by 15, the Bills will be going for touchdowns, not field goals if the margin stays the same anywhere near the 4th quarter.

ZJP6050 · Aug 9, 2009

agreed! you know i have to give you a hard time and ask about your success and well being in the dark profession! been a dreary baseball season for a lot of us. i'm cracking back around even, better than being down though. i'm on the over in this preseason game only, just need 1 more fg.

thecruncher · Aug 9, 2009

ZJP6050 said:
agreed! you know i have to give you a hard time and ask about your success and well being in the dark profession! been a dreary baseball season for a lot of us. i'm cracking back around even, better than being down though. i'm on the over in this preseason game only, just need 1 more fg.

Well, I lit up the dark profession like a Roman candle last season, lol, best season ever and one of the best ever by a dark lord on file, I'd imagine. You know that last field goal is always going to be the hardest one to bank, eh?

ZJP6050 · Aug 9, 2009

thecruncher said:
Well, I lit up the dark profession like a Roman candle last season, lol, best season ever and one of the best ever by a dark lord on file, I'd imagine. You know that last field goal is always going to be the hardest one to bank, eh?

an int for a td is even better haha. your titan play looks good as well at this point! hope you're around for the season bud. at least just to pop in and conversate at the very least!

thecruncher · Aug 12, 2009

Cowboys @ Raiders

The Cowboys should have minimal interest in being competitive in this game, other than coach Phillips’ desire to keep Jerry Jones’ probably rancid breath from tickling the hairs under his shirt collar. The Cowboys have no new coaches or schemes, and no new major starters at key positions. Look for Romo to play one or two series, than newly acquired Jon Kitna to finish out the half, than rookies Carpenter and McGee to balk in the second half while the Raiders pull ahead to a victory. Not only that, but Romo has been a notoriously slow starter in games, so the Cowboys may struggle to score during all phases of this game.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have no rookie QBs on their roster. Heck, until earlier in the week they had as many as 5 QBs with NFL experience on board. Andrew Walter was dealt to the Patriots, so the Raiders’ current rotation will be: Russell, Garcia, Frye, and Gradkowski (with 1-year man Soutwick 5th on the depth). So you’ve got one proven QB, Garcia, and 3 poster childs for mediocrity remaining. Still, these are guys who should do better than rookies seeing any type of NFL action for the first time.

Coach Cable of the Raiders is entering his first preseason as the head man, so I think he’ll feel at least a portion of the rookie coach desire to win preseason games, especially with a meddling owner lurking vulture-like in the rafters as well. On the balance, the Raiders are a team looking to carry the bit of positive mojo they got from ending last season on an up note through this preseason and hopefully into the regular season before it runs dry.

Another rookie coach and QB battle combination that should lead to a preweek game #1 victory. The line was OAK -1 when I created my first preseason lines last week and posted the recommended play. The line has since moved to -2.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 21 – Cowboys 14

BORO · Aug 12, 2009

I think your write-up is right on. Add to the fact that Dallas's o-line won't be playing much either. Their starting tackles at least. Colombo and Adams won't play much and Jerry wants to see want kind of depth he has on the o-line.

cashflow50 · Aug 13, 2009

j russ to start and garcia to finish. i like the play crunch

midman2161 · Aug 13, 2009

I'm seeing that Garcia is expected to miss the game.. that could hurt the Raiders chances

thecruncher · Aug 13, 2009

Thanks, midman, I just went and confirmed that on cbssportsline this morning. Garcia's absence will hurt, but their is still plenty of value left on the Raiders.

season-push2 · Aug 13, 2009

Gl This Season Crunch:toast:

acanto · Aug 13, 2009

gl crunch, always love your insights & pix!!

JimmyWynn · Aug 13, 2009

Jimmy see's trouble with oakland so far lots of peeps on them
Jimmy is worried!

thecruncher · Aug 14, 2009

JimmyWynn said:
Jimmy see's trouble with oakland so far lots of peeps on them
Jimmy is worried!

That's why Jimmy doesn't get paid to handicap the NFL.

2-0 forum ytd. :103631605

gynecologist · Aug 14, 2009

Good to see ya crunch.. GL this season

southbeach · Aug 14, 2009

very nice cruncher :103631605

TheSaint · Aug 14, 2009

great calls, great write-ups

BORO · Aug 14, 2009

Nice job.

jed4176 · Aug 14, 2009

:toast:

The Sports Cruncher's 2009 Preseason Week #1 Write Ups

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