I've been out of the NFL for just about 5 years, having switched over to NCAAF only. The NCAAF is going really well, so I'm dipping my toes back into the NFL waters. I'll be posting my NFL Market Cheat Sheet and recommended plays near the time that the lines open offshore for the following week's action. My NCAAF lines were originally a simplified version of my NFL lines, because you can't get as many NCAAF stats as NFL ones. After a warm up season the lines started to perform really well. Instead of going back and working with my behemoth NFL system of before (as it would require a lot of updating to accommodate current statistical formatting), I rejiggered my NCAAF system back into an NFL version. I'm hoping that the successful additions I made to the NCAAF system will counterbalance using less available statistics than I used to use in the NFL. Tracking the market moves and results over the next couple of months will tell the tale, but it didn't take much tinkering at all for this first remodel to spit out lines pretty close to what's on the market. Anyway, here are my week #1 lines and plays, and I'll post a week #2 thread on Sunday.
For any people newer to the forum, I posted regularly here from near the turn of the century up until 2011, with the exception of 2-3 seasons. I'm pretty sure I showed a higher total profit on NFL wagering than anyone else over that time span.
Forum not letting me upload the market cheat sheet image directly, so here's a link to view:
http://imgur.com/a/YIqQ8
1 Unit:
KC, ARIZ @ SEA ML Parlay (+1.27)
SEA -10 vs MIA (-115) -- Obviously would've been in much better shape with the opening -7, but still think there's value.
NE @ ARIZ Under 47.5 -- NE will miss Brady, but they still have a pretty good defense, as does Arizona.
1/2 Unit:
OAK PICK @ NO (EV)
TB ML @ ATL (+130)
NYJ +3 VS CIN (-130)
CHI +7 @ HOU (-125)
DET @ IND UNDER 51
PIT @ WASH UNDER 50
For any people newer to the forum, I posted regularly here from near the turn of the century up until 2011, with the exception of 2-3 seasons. I'm pretty sure I showed a higher total profit on NFL wagering than anyone else over that time span.
Forum not letting me upload the market cheat sheet image directly, so here's a link to view:
http://imgur.com/a/YIqQ8
1 Unit:
KC, ARIZ @ SEA ML Parlay (+1.27)
SEA -10 vs MIA (-115) -- Obviously would've been in much better shape with the opening -7, but still think there's value.
NE @ ARIZ Under 47.5 -- NE will miss Brady, but they still have a pretty good defense, as does Arizona.
1/2 Unit:
OAK PICK @ NO (EV)
TB ML @ ATL (+130)
NYJ +3 VS CIN (-130)
CHI +7 @ HOU (-125)
DET @ IND UNDER 51
PIT @ WASH UNDER 50
