Don't forget that Prior spent about three weeks on the DL around the All Star Break. His arm is not ragged out like most this time of year.
116 pitches for him is nothing. He averages something closer to 124 this postseason. Plus Cubs pen sucks and Cubs had to win Game 2. In a must win you stay with your stud, 11 run lead or not, esp with a low pitch count (for him)
If Gonzalez fields that ball cleanly it's a double play end of inning. Bring in closer. End of game. Not saying he's the goat per se but that was much bigger imho than the fan non-interference or Prior's pitch count. Just my opinion.
116 pitches for him is nothing. He averages something closer to 124 this postseason. Plus Cubs pen sucks and Cubs had to win Game 2. In a must win you stay with your stud, 11 run lead or not, esp with a low pitch count (for him)
If Gonzalez fields that ball cleanly it's a double play end of inning. Bring in closer. End of game. Not saying he's the goat per se but that was much bigger imho than the fan non-interference or Prior's pitch count. Just my opinion.
The fact that he averages 124 pitches doesn't mean anything. What does it mean if he average 124 pitches? All it means is that Dusty Baker keeps him in the game until he makes 124 pitches (on average) and that's what I am saying he shouldn't do. You're defending Dusty by saying Prior averages 124 pitches when my whole point is that Dusty used him too much. You are defending him with the same argument that I am making - which is: Prior has been overused and he paid for it last night.
11 run lead, 85 pitches. There was no reason to keep him there. Dusty didn't pay for it then, but he paid for it in the 8th inning last night when Prior's arm started tiring.
I looked up Prior's averages and after pitch 120, he has an ERA of 6.00 and batters hit 0.357 off of him - and that doesn't count last night because he never reached 120, but it does prove that Prior tires after a certain point.
EVERYONE has a limit. Prior had one too - and Dusty just didn't see it.
PS: IS Dusty a brain surgeon or something? The TV commentators and the people in Chicago think he's REAL smart for some reason
11 run lead, 85 pitches. There was no reason to keep him there. Dusty didn't pay for it then, but he paid for it in the 8th inning last night when Prior's arm started tiring.
I looked up Prior's averages and after pitch 120, he has an ERA of 6.00 and batters hit 0.357 off of him - and that doesn't count last night because he never reached 120, but it does prove that Prior tires after a certain point.
EVERYONE has a limit. Prior had one too - and Dusty just didn't see it.
PS: IS Dusty a brain surgeon or something? The TV commentators and the people in Chicago think he's REAL smart for some reason
I'm not defending Dusty as much as I'm saying the Cubs bullpen sucks, hence the high pitch counts. I'm saying it's lose/lose -- leave Prior in he tires, bring in Cubs relievers they get hammered. I'm saying any manager would have the same problem -- if that's "defending" I guess I am...
I actually agree he should have been taken out in Game 2. BUT I also know Prior has some of the best mechanics in baseball and does not tire as easily as most. Given a choice between a few mph off his fastball late in a game vs the Cubs pen, I'll take the former...at least this season. That was my point: I don't think Dusty had much choice. Prior and Wood are expected to go deep. 116 pitches is a lot but not a ridiculous amount for Prior. If Prior says he's ok, let him stay in. If Prior gets pulled and bullpen shells up 12 runs to lose Game 2 Cub fans would be screaming for his head, not to mention Prior may not get another start if they go down 0-2. Managing in postseason is a different ballgame.
I would be interested in seeing the post-120 pitch data. I was not aware that Prior implodes like that after pitch 120. Very interesting observation.
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 11:54 AM.]
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 11:56 AM.]
I actually agree he should have been taken out in Game 2. BUT I also know Prior has some of the best mechanics in baseball and does not tire as easily as most. Given a choice between a few mph off his fastball late in a game vs the Cubs pen, I'll take the former...at least this season. That was my point: I don't think Dusty had much choice. Prior and Wood are expected to go deep. 116 pitches is a lot but not a ridiculous amount for Prior. If Prior says he's ok, let him stay in. If Prior gets pulled and bullpen shells up 12 runs to lose Game 2 Cub fans would be screaming for his head, not to mention Prior may not get another start if they go down 0-2. Managing in postseason is a different ballgame.
I would be interested in seeing the post-120 pitch data. I was not aware that Prior implodes like that after pitch 120. Very interesting observation.
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 11:54 AM.]
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 11:56 AM.]
Here it is:
http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6787/situational
He has only pitched 3 innings after the 120 pitch count, so it's not like he is used to it either.
There is difference between managing a ball game and managing a series. Dusty managed a ballgame.
If you can't trust your bullpen with an 11 run lead and 4 innings to go and an off day the following day, you should take your ball and bat and go home.
http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6787/situational
He has only pitched 3 innings after the 120 pitch count, so it's not like he is used to it either.
There is difference between managing a ball game and managing a series. Dusty managed a ballgame.
If you can't trust your bullpen with an 11 run lead and 4 innings to go and an off day the following day, you should take your ball and bat and go home.
Thanks for the link.
Yes, I do not trust the Cubs bullpen no matter what the lead:
CHC bullpen Last 3 games for each:
24.1 IP, 6.29 ERA
That's actually worse than Prior over 120 pitches!
Now refering to your chart: You mention he only logged 3 innings of work over 120 pitches. Between 106-120 pitches he logged a more repectable 17+ innings carrying a 2.55 ERA. Are you trying to suggest he flips a switch at 121 and suddenly sucks??? Heck, he even has 5 Ks in those 3 innings over 120 pitches. That's not usually the telltale signs of getting tired.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, but thank you again for the data.
And I still contend that if Gonzalez fields that can-o-corn grounder we aren't even talking about Prior getting tired.
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 12:25 PM.]
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 12:32 PM.]
Yes, I do not trust the Cubs bullpen no matter what the lead:
CHC bullpen Last 3 games for each:
24.1 IP, 6.29 ERA
That's actually worse than Prior over 120 pitches!
Now refering to your chart: You mention he only logged 3 innings of work over 120 pitches. Between 106-120 pitches he logged a more repectable 17+ innings carrying a 2.55 ERA. Are you trying to suggest he flips a switch at 121 and suddenly sucks??? Heck, he even has 5 Ks in those 3 innings over 120 pitches. That's not usually the telltale signs of getting tired.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, but thank you again for the data.
And I still contend that if Gonzalez fields that can-o-corn grounder we aren't even talking about Prior getting tired.
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 12:25 PM.]
[This message was edited by Knucklecurve on October 15, 2003 at 12:32 PM.]
I am saying he gets tired - he doesn't get stronger as the game goes into the latter innings ... and if you think he doesn't get tired, plug in the VCR and look at his pitches in the 8th inning yesterday.
I will say it one last time:
With an 11 run lead in the 6th inning, he should not have been pitching ... but the Brain Surgeon kept him in, and that's all that matters.
Also, you seem to contradict yourself - you blame Gonzalez by saying the following:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>If Gonzalez fields that ball cleanly it's a double play end of inning. Bring in closer. End of game. Not saying he's the goat per se but that was much bigger imho than the fan non-interference or Prior's pitch count. Just my opinion.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
First of all, AGonz wouldn't have had a double play with the speed on the bases - secondly, I thought you said the bullpen sucked and that is why Prior had to be kept in the game.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Yes, I do not trust the Cubs bullpen no matter what the lead <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, the bullpen needed 4 outs and would have had a 2 run lead - so you trust them with a 2 run lead but not with an 11 run lead???
I will say it one last time:
With an 11 run lead in the 6th inning, he should not have been pitching ... but the Brain Surgeon kept him in, and that's all that matters.
Also, you seem to contradict yourself - you blame Gonzalez by saying the following:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>If Gonzalez fields that ball cleanly it's a double play end of inning. Bring in closer. End of game. Not saying he's the goat per se but that was much bigger imho than the fan non-interference or Prior's pitch count. Just my opinion.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
First of all, AGonz wouldn't have had a double play with the speed on the bases - secondly, I thought you said the bullpen sucked and that is why Prior had to be kept in the game.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Yes, I do not trust the Cubs bullpen no matter what the lead <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, the bullpen needed 4 outs and would have had a 2 run lead - so you trust them with a 2 run lead but not with an 11 run lead???
cincy, he's already said he thinks that prior should've probably been taken out in game 2. however he also doesn't believe it was a wrong decision to keep him in because you can't trust the cubs bullpen even with an 11 point lead. the cubs bullpen got shelled for 5 extra runs in a single inning last night, so i think he's in the right here. i also think agon's error is much bigger than the fan interference or prior's pitch count. getting at least one extra out at that point would clearly have stifled the subsequent outburst.
besides, i think prior's implosion wasn't so much about his exhaustion as opposed to his mental lapse. in a series-clinching game like with with an ace like prior on the mound, he's probably going on adrenaline alone and the standard exhaustion theory doesn't apply as well. but he was visibly upset when the fan prevented the 2nd out, and that may have made him impatient, nervous, etc. in any case, three innings isn't nearly enough sample data to prove anything about prior's performance at 120+ pitches, AND it is inapplicable as he hadn't thrown 120+ pitches in this case.
besides, i think prior's implosion wasn't so much about his exhaustion as opposed to his mental lapse. in a series-clinching game like with with an ace like prior on the mound, he's probably going on adrenaline alone and the standard exhaustion theory doesn't apply as well. but he was visibly upset when the fan prevented the 2nd out, and that may have made him impatient, nervous, etc. in any case, three innings isn't nearly enough sample data to prove anything about prior's performance at 120+ pitches, AND it is inapplicable as he hadn't thrown 120+ pitches in this case.
What?? Where did I contradict myself?
Prior had an 11 run lead on only 85 pitches. he was in the zone. Yes he doesn't have to stay in but the Cubs are playing at home in front of fans that want to see Prior dominate. Its called momentum. Let him pitch if he wants to pitch. If he starts to get hit, take him out. Not brain surgery.
I maintain the Cubs bullpen sucks -- especially middle relief. Borowski is solid other than him the numbers support it.
Going back to last night: you don't think that error was a huge reason the inning lasted as long as it did???
And why would Gonzo not have made the double play to end the inning???
You mention speed but Cabrera hit the ball w/ "pudge" IRod chugging to second. It was a routine DP grounder. He didn't even have to charge. If Gonzalez makes that play, the Cubs in all liklihood get out of the inning and Borowski comes in for the save and they call it a day. There is no "Prior is overworked" discussion.
I'm not going to get is a p*ssing match over what coulda and shoulda happened. I simply disagree with your notion Prior was too tired and it's all Dusty's fault. With the same logic Diamondbacks would have never won a championship w/ an equally overworked Unit & Schilling. You do what you have to do to win in the postseason and I feel (right or wrong) that leaving Prior is an extra few innings when you are down 0-1 in a best-of-7 series is not a Cardinal sin. Especially when your pen is less than reliable. I am entitled to my opinion. You are entitled to yours. Lets end it.
Prior had an 11 run lead on only 85 pitches. he was in the zone. Yes he doesn't have to stay in but the Cubs are playing at home in front of fans that want to see Prior dominate. Its called momentum. Let him pitch if he wants to pitch. If he starts to get hit, take him out. Not brain surgery.
I maintain the Cubs bullpen sucks -- especially middle relief. Borowski is solid other than him the numbers support it.
Going back to last night: you don't think that error was a huge reason the inning lasted as long as it did???
And why would Gonzo not have made the double play to end the inning???
You mention speed but Cabrera hit the ball w/ "pudge" IRod chugging to second. It was a routine DP grounder. He didn't even have to charge. If Gonzalez makes that play, the Cubs in all liklihood get out of the inning and Borowski comes in for the save and they call it a day. There is no "Prior is overworked" discussion.
I'm not going to get is a p*ssing match over what coulda and shoulda happened. I simply disagree with your notion Prior was too tired and it's all Dusty's fault. With the same logic Diamondbacks would have never won a championship w/ an equally overworked Unit & Schilling. You do what you have to do to win in the postseason and I feel (right or wrong) that leaving Prior is an extra few innings when you are down 0-1 in a best-of-7 series is not a Cardinal sin. Especially when your pen is less than reliable. I am entitled to my opinion. You are entitled to yours. Lets end it.
