Good luck today gentlemen
The Pick: My 200 Dime winner is the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Line: The current line is -5 1/2 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 9:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Note: At -5 1/2 you play as is, if this price moves to anywhere from -6 to -7 1/2 points you buy the half-point down.
My Analysis
We're not in Kansas anymore Toto.
On paper, you would think Dilliion Gabriel's debut for the Browns was a success!
Blessed with playing on a neutral field in London, his numbers were ok: 19 of 33 for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns with no turnovers in the 21-17 loss.
However, a closer look will reveal that the young rookie QB wasn't asked to do much other than throw checkdowns and get rid of the ball quickly.
Of his 19 completions, 12 of them were inside 5 yard throws and he was 3 of 11 on throws 10+ yards.
Now he must put on his big boy pants and play in one of the toughest environments in the NFL against a defensive front that will put pressure on him.
And if he comes into this stadium, against this team, and plays perfect error free football and stays within 7 points, congrats son, you beat me.
My dollar says that isn't happening, especially with the numbers going againt him and his Cleveland Browns.
The last 4 trips the Browns have made into Pittsburgh, they are 0-4 SU/ATS.
Secondly, in true road games the Browns are 0-2 SU/ATS this year losing at Baltimore 41-17 and at Detroit 34-10.
Going back to last year they have now lost their last 7 road games SU/ATS.
The last 4 years coming off their bye week, Mike Tomlin and his children are 4-0 SU/ATS.
What you have here today is the wrong QB, facing the wrong team, at the wrong time.
END OF STORY.
As much as head coach Kevin Stefanski protected him last week against the Vikings, he won't be able to today.
Lastly, in his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers including playoffs, head coach Mike Tomlin has a 26-6 record against rookie QB's, second only to Don Shula.
Here comes your ace on the river: His home record versus rookies......14-1.
The only QB to beat him: Trust me, Dillion Gabriel isn't going to be #2 today.
And against this overhyped and overrated Browns defense Carson Wentz went 25 of 34 for 236 yards and a touchdown.
I am pretty confident Aaron Rodgers, with a week to prepare, has a better day against this Jim Swartz defense.
This is a double digit winner all day long.
