The proper Hedge on 3400 4 teamer....1 game left

[zeketaylor]

This is the bet placed at bookmaker

<TABLE class=fTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bCell>Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 06/26/2007 @ 03:19 PM </TD><TD class=cCell>PARLAY (4 TEAMS)</TD><TD class=dCell>Risking: 300.00</TD><TD class=eCell>To Win: 3423.37</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=sTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 07:15 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[916] GIANTS -125 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


at 1015 the giants game starts, as i type this....

the braves lead 5-1 after a tight 1-1 game.....they r at home vs the nats and have control in the 6th.

the wsox lead 5-1 over drays, in top of 8th


a's just took 4-3 lead and then blew bases loaded with 1 out..and that game feels long from over.


the a's was my weakest game here....as i thought the books were beggin for haren backers to back this weak a's offense.....but haren got hit harder than he usually does early, and a's have hit quite clutch..........the giants and wsox and braves were always on this blueprint for parlay....the yankees over 8.5, yanks -160, and bjs were all my 4th game, and eliminated becs the plays all seemed square.


all that said....at least 3 approaches i can see here for hedge.

1. dont hedge at all....its gambling after all right?

2. lock up exactly half profits. if the bet wins, i get my 300 back plus 3400+. i dont know bout u, bout once i wager on something like this, the money is gone, so whatever comes back....is bonus....so i net 3700 if i win....

Bookmaker has padres at +105, i can wager 1600/1680.......if giants win 3700 into my account -1600=2100 to the good.
padres win= 3280 into my account, profit 1680, or 1580 if u take into account my 300 wager .....but the 300 wager gives me shot to free roll on bad pitcher like wells, id never back in this case.........


3. Some smaller hedge on padres. Iliked zito and giants for a reason in the first place....perhaps 33% hedge?


this could all be premature...haren could be imploding here in the 7th, and a's only have so much offense in them.....they wont come back again if haren surrenders lead again...


either way, this could start fun hedge/gambling conversation

 

[cincy_]

Why parlay something that you were planning on hedging?

Why parlay two games that start 3 hours apart?

All you end up doing is paying the extra juice.

 

[zeketaylor]

WHO said iw as planning on hedging?

why wouldnt i parlay 2 games that start 3 hrs apart? that infact leaves opportunity to hedge...

not trying to offend u, but u got anything of value to say? this is serious question

if a's hold...im gonna have 3400 riding on giants with only 300 at risk

 

[AJPantano]

WHO said iw as planning on hedging?

why wouldnt i parlay 2 games that start 3 hrs apart? that infact leaves opportunity to hedge...

not trying to offend u, but u got anything of value to say? this is serious question

if a's hold...im gonna have 3400 riding on giants with only 300 at risk

Put a G on the Pods. That's easy.

 

[zeketaylor]

top 8th......a's 4-3 escaping 7th inn bases loaded and hafner up

 

[zeketaylor]

Put a G on the Pods. That's easy.

aj u think a's game in top 8th will be done by 1003 pm?

2 full innings to go.....i dont wann a hedge 1k on padres if a's arent money in bank with 3-4 run lead.....i got 34 minutes till giants start

 

[cincy_]

This would have been MY play

<table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </td><td class="sCell">[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">
</td><td class="sCell">
</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </td><td class="sCell">[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </td><td class="sCell">[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr></tbody></table>

Then at 10 pm even if the games weren't final, I would have made an IF-WIN bet for what ever amount on the Giants.

Or I would have had two different parlays:

<table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </td><td class="sCell">[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 07:15 PM </td><td class="sCell">[916] GIANTS -125 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </td><td class="sCell">[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </td><td class="sCell">[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr></tbody></table>
for $100-$150

<table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </td><td class="sCell">[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell"> </td><td class="sCell">
</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </td><td class="sCell">[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr><tr><td class="fCell">06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </td><td class="sCell">[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</td></tr></tbody></table>

for $150-$200

Bottom line when you hedge ... you pay 10 cents in juice for no reason

 

[zeketaylor]

This would have been MY play

<TABLE class=sTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>

</TD><TD class=sCell>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Then at 10 pm even if the games weren't final, I would have made an IF-WIN bet for what ever amount on the Giants.

Or I would have had two different parlays:

<TABLE class=sTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 07:15 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[916] GIANTS -125 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
for $100-$150

<TABLE class=sTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:35 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[908] BRAVES -157 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell></TD><TD class=sCell>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:08 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[921] ATHLETICS -118 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR><TR><TD class=fCell>06/26/2007 @ 04:10 PM </TD><TD class=sCell>[923] WHITE SOX +128 ( ACTION ) - MLB</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

for $150-$200

Bottom line when you hedge ... you pay 10 cents in juice for no reason

k...that response made more sense and seemed less argumentative.....thanks for the input.....but..in this case...i also knew if i hedged...im betting on + odds dog......so no juice.

 

[soswalter]

Bet $1,000 on the Padres... At least 300 so you get your money back at worst

 

[CalvinTy]

I would agree here... with the Nats down to their final outs & A's actually getting an insurance run in top of 9th.... I'd say you would be safe to at least bet a nickel on the Padres as dogs. Since they are dogs *and* not your choice to bet on (since you had chosen SF/Zito), no reason to bet more than $500 on the Padres esp if Zito wins it for you. But, I agree with the other posters that if you put a dime on them, it'll reduce your parlay payout to $2,400 net after SF wins but hey, still a nice score even after knowing it was a hedge bet.

* CalvinTy

 

[CalvinTy]

A late comment addressed to cincy_. Your concept of 3-team early parlay with a 4-team night parlay would be exactly what I would have done if I was interested in doing parlays. One comment though... the act of hedging implies that it's a counter-bet (not necessarily "counter-productive bet") & eating extra juice in the process. Still, many of us including myself, would rather to pay "insurance" (the overlapped juice) to ensure a winning night, though.

* CalvinTy

 

[zeketaylor]

hafner ruined it....glad i didnt hedge it

 

[soswalter]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, I guess.

Hope you win man, GL

 

[zeketaylor]

and for those of u wondering iw as on rockies last night....9-8 comeback only to lose to matsuis boot......

5 run 9th with 2 outs for cleveland here ruins my 3400 dollr prayer......go fk yrself allan embree

 

[zeketaylor]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, I guess.

Hope you win man, GL

dont worry iw asnt...a's were weakest game on this parlay.....i almost left them off for toronto, yankees, or yanks over 8.5......not surte if any of those woulda won....but i hated falling for this haren trap

 

[CalvinTy]

Wow, what a turn of events in that CLE game, sorry about the parlay loss. It would have been interesting to see how you decided to deal with the parlay had the A's held on.

* CalvinTy