Once again I applaud Wild Bills' efforts, but disagree totally with his article.
To say 5-10% succeed has got to be one of the worst estimates I have ever seen. It's enough to completely discredit you Wild Bill. One reads this and it's very tough to not just say "This guy is in such fantasy land, he misses his estimate by a factor of 100, how can I give him any serious attention? How can I respect him as any kind of expert?
Over 99% of people coming to Vegas to become a professional gambler fail miserably. 95% of them have no clue what they are doing and aren't even playing with an edge. 5% play with an edge, but only 10% OF THOSE even discover any sizable edges. So we are down to .5% of those trying to win. Now you need discipline, a bankroll, good money management, etc. .1% (1 out of 1000 looks about right).
Disagree with me? Then refute this. Every Thursday night Park Place has -105 vig with decent limits. Surely "every" pro sports bettor would at least wander into a PPE book to make some bets right? Lines should be around the corner! Turns out 10-15 guys will show up. How could ANY pro sports gambler avoid this???? It's not a trap, as the Hilton has a good reputation for taking action. Also, one could rotate amongst properties to stay anonymous if desired.
Ok, maybe their are more pro poker players out there, and maybe 1% of those who come here succeed IN THAT CATEGORY. But 5-10%?
It's been said that it's easier to be a rock star than a pro gambler. If 1/20 of those who tried it succeeded, then their must be a lot of people with Solid Gold records out there.
Another refutation. I know guys who have TREMENDOUS knowledge and ability to beat sports and 21, and some other games. And many of these guys are bust outs. I could give many reasons but it comes down to a few:
1. Expenses too high (and with every big win they blow some of the winnings)
2. Bad lifestyles (too much drinking, smoking, etc)
3. Getting sucked into some bad negative situations betting (I'm getting heat playing 21, I'll just go play some craps for awhile). I liked the bet -6, what's the big deal if I have to lay -6.5? Etc.
4. Missing obvious great situations to make some serious money (Terrible's suited 21s pay triple 2 weeks ago for 1 day).
5. NO BANKROLL. This is a killer guys try to get it done with 30k or less. This forces them to either bet small (killing their earing rate) or overbet their bankroll......leaving them to go bellyup during the losing streak.
Seriously, "everyone" loses out here. The exceptions are easy to spot.
Wild Bill, PLEASE stop writing such things as 5-10% succeed. At best, it's terribly wrong and makes you look like a foolish author. At worst, it encourages people to go become a pro gambler, and ruins their lives.........
