Monday night football analysis
Tonight, the Detroit Lions take on the Seattle Seahawks. Most books have Seattle as 10 point favorites, though I have seen -11, -10.5, and -9.5 at a few books. The over / under is 43.
Here we are in week 4, and yet tonight is already a contest of the must win variety. A loss for Detroit all but ends any hope of returning to the playoffs. A loss for Seattle, while not season ending, would leave them in 3rd in the NFC west, with a head to head loss against the Rams. I expect teams to play with a serious sense of urgency tonight.
To this point, 60% of spread bets have been placed on Seattle, 87% of money line plays are on Seattle, and lastly, 72% of bettors are going over 43. Those of you that know the public are not surprised by these numbers in the least.
Stats that matter for Detroit:
- Detroit has lost 6 of last 7 times in the Pacific time zone.
- Detroit is dead last in the league in rushing. Just 45 rush attempts through 3 games.
- Stafford has only completed 1 actual pass that was thrown 20 yards down field.
- Stafford is averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
- Matt Stafford has been hit the most through 3 games in the NFL.
- Due to poor OL play, and no rushing attack, Stafford has thrown 5 INT.
- One bright spot has been rush defense which has been good in 2 of 3 games, and is a top 12 unit.
- Detroit is 28th in defensive passer rating.
- Detroit is 28th in Passer rating differential.
- Detroit's offensive line is ranked 30 of 32.
- Detroit scores 6.12 pts per 100 yards gained.
- Detroit allows 7.00 pts per 100 opponent yards gained.
- Detroit only averaging 2.7 plays of 20 yards or more a game, down each year from 4.0 in 2011.
Stats that matter for Seattle:
- Seattle is 23-2 in last 25 games at home. Avg margin of victory in last 25 home games is 15.3. The avg score in these games has been 28-13.
- Seattle has struggled against #3 and #4 WR's as well as tight ends. Detroit has good TE, and solid depth at WR. Will be interesting matchup.
- Seattle is 16th in Passer rating differential.
- Seattle is 21st in defensive passer rating.
Seattle has the 9th best DL
- Seattle has the 19th ranked offensive line.
- Seattle scores 7.13 points per 100 yards gained.
- Seattle allows 7.10 points per 100 yards allowed.
Deciding factor: Seattle is the much better team. The Seahawks have a nice advantage with their DL vs the Detroit OL. Avril and Bennett should both have nice games, and I expect Stafford to be under pressure much of the game. If Detroit is going to win this game, they must be able to exploit the matchup advantages of Eberon vs LB's, Abdullah vs LB's, they absolutely must also establish the run, and protect Matthew Stafford much better than they have to this point. This offense has turned the ball over 8 times already to the tune of 5 INT and 3 fumbles. At the end of the day, Seattle is just better, and it will show on Monday night.
The pick: The matchups, and stats that matter point to a double digit Seattle victory and the over. How much will the sense of urgency change the way Detroit plays? I expect Detroit to try and stretch the field more than they have thusfar. Sherman plays exclusively on the left side, so he will not be covering Calvin Johnson. I don't think there is any question that Seattle wins this game. The margin of victory I am unsure of. Both teams weak on offensive line makes me think Detroit covers the number, but the way Seattle plays at home, coupled with Chancellor being back on defense made me feel like Seattle will easily cover the number BC Detroit is very one dimensional. I hate laying double digits in the NFL, so tonight I'm going SEAHAWKS MONEY LINE -390. predicted outcome based on simple algorithm says Seattle 31 Detroit 20. If this was not a must win game for Detroit I would buy hook and lay 9.5.
Best of luck to all. Hope this post wasn't too long!
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