The Official College Football Realignment Thread

[GoSooners]

Since absolutely nothing is going on this time of year, I would like to hear a few of your opinions on realignment. Who is going where, when is it going to happen, or will it happen at all? I'm of the opinion that we'll eventually have four super conferences. I just have to idea how it will happen. But given the landscape of football as it is now, this is what I think has the best chance of happening. All subject to change tomorrow!





First, I think the entire realignment picture revolves around the Big 12 as it stands now with just 10 teams. The fact that the Big 12 is fighting off every rumor about expansion, and that it wasn't even brought up in their two days of formal meetings a couple weeks ago, tells me about everything I need to know. Especially after the Big 12 was snubbed from the first Big 12 playoff. If that didn't sway them, then I doubt they can be swayed from their great master plan. It sounds to me like the Big 12 has officially made up their minds and nothing is going to change it.

Commish Bowlsby has already come out and admitted that it isn't about the competition, it's about the money. Who cares if they are at a disadvantage without a CCG when they are getting their $$$. To me, it's all short term thinking because eventually the Big 12 has to stay competitive on the field to demand the dollars. If they miss out on the CCG will they be able to recruit with the ACC/Big? The SEC is in Texas and overlaps their market. Texas A&M can't stand Texas (who can?) and over time could use this as a plus being in the SEC as an advantage.

I'm curious to see how this plays out in the next couple of years. If they get frozen out of the playoffs will that affect recruits, which affects play on the field which affects dollar value? The Big 12 officials don't know it (yet), but I think they raised the white flag for expansion with their statement about no expansion on the table. If there is any conference who has seemingly read the Big East handbook of conference self-destruction, it's the Big 12. This conference will absolutely be toast by the time their next TV contract is up or their Grant Of Rights expires. There is no question about it. In the business world, the key for success is strength in numbers. And if you aren't going forward your going backwards. And make no mistake about it, college football is a business. And the Big 12 appears to be going backwards. How it plays out in the next couple of years will determine everything about this conference's future.

The Big 12 is basically being held together by money and the geographic proximity of Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas. But geographic proximity matters less and less now that money has gotten so high compared to travel costs. But the money is temporary, it expires in 10 years. I guarantee you at this point the networks can't believe they gave $25 million per school to this conference as it is. If they had to do it again, it wouldn't happen. The hell if they are going to negotiate another contract with the condition this conference is in at the moment. Again, subject to change, but I don't hold out a lot of hope. And no CCG also doesn't help. Plus a conference needs more than one or two competitive teams a year to get everyone's attention. And the Big 12 simply isn't doing it right now.

I believe the two teams who could jump the conference if Texas doesn't jump first are Kansas and Oklahoma. And if things don't get better i believe they'll jump at the first chance they get. These teams only signed the GOR because they had no where to go. I believe they have a place now. And I believe it will be the Big 10, with an outside chance at the SEC. If Notre Dame and Texas wanted in the Big 10, I believe they would be welcomed with open arms. But I really don't think either of these schools are realistic targets. They would love to get Kansas for their basketball. And Oklahoma because they would bring in at least part of the Texas market. And the football tradition.

But there is no way we can sell Texas short in this whole deal. Right now the conference is entirely dependent on the whims of UT. Should one day Texas decide they desire something different for their program, nothing will stop them from doing what they want to do. We've already seen an example of this with the LHN. If Texas leaves I believe the conference will be picked off one by one. The one thing about the Big 12 that has an advantage over every other conference is it is uniquely situated in a way that the majority of schools could be absorbed by neighboring P5 conferences. And I believe it will. This is basically the only way we can have 4 super conferences. The Pac-12 can't be a super conference without the Big 12. There aren't enough viable schools out west. BYU and Boise are basically the only two. And it won't be hard to get the ACC/Big/SEC to 16 teams since there won't be a huge amount of travel involved for most of the Big 12 schools. The only thing I don't know yet is how OU can leave the conference without OSU and Kansas without KSU. Those schools are kind of locked in with each other right now. But things could change. Right now the facts are the Big 12 is too small-minded to survive long term IMO. They chose short term riches over long term stability. That in and of itself is telling. This conference reminds me of many of those short term tech companies of the 90's. They wanted it all now. But eventually the bills came due. Then they'll be up shit creek.

 

[cloverleaf]

Excellent food for thought GS. Damn strong write up and look forward to forum's replies.

I don't have a clue how the Big 12 will shake out but agree the conference will be forced to do something in the not so distant future. Would love to see Oklahoma in the SEC. Man, talk about a tough SEC West...would add to the "big boy football" played in west division of the SEC.

 

[MackDonald]

Whew.....That was quite the read "Sooner".....You had to spend some time to research and compose that post-graduate seminar dissertation. I've been following college sports for almost 70 years and I have seen most of the changes that have occurred in modern day (post world war ll) college football.....player skill levels, coaching techniques, equipment (pads and uniforms), practice routines, length of seasons (i.e. number of games), year-around training in the weight-rooms, culinary/diet research, team travel logistics, stadium enlargements and playing field enhancements (turf et al), sideline techniques (electronics, heat, A/C etc.) and the incorporation of modern day broadcast communications...TV. Television is now dictating how the game of football is being presented to us, the fans, and how we now view the game whether it be at the stadium or in the comfort of our own home. Even the cheerleaders and their costumes have changed (have they ever).

To feed the "beast", conference change is inevitable (it has already changed drastically); Geographical considerations are meaningless with the advent of jet travel. There is nothing "Southeastern" about College Station, Texas or Rutgers playing in the upper-Midwest or Salt Lake City or Boulder being identified as the Pacific Coast....so much for regional and cultural identity. I always felt geographic identities were part of the beauty of the game of college football....Nothing like a Big-10 school slugging it out against a Pac-10 school or a Southern school going against one of those "Yankee" schools or Oklahoma "waging war" against Texas.....Sadly, those days are over (I guess that kind of reminiscing is the "sentimental old-fool" in me).

Yes Sooner....the really big changes are coming with conference makeups; How the power-brokers (the money changers) go about it remains to be seen. I hope and pray they don't ruin our beloved game in the process.

 

[GoSooners]

Speaking for my own team Oklahoma, I don't believe the fans will ever be satisfied with the schedule of teams coming to Norman. When you lose 3 flagships from a conference and you play another flagship at a neutral location, it no longer gives you much of a reason for driving down to Norman to watch a football game. OU's home schedule this year is Akron, Tulsa, WV, Texas Tech, Iowa State, TCU. With the exception of TCU this is a terrible home schedule for a P5 power program. It's the kind of schedule that isn't going to make you money. And eventually it's the kind of schedule that will end the days of sellouts in Norman. And one more reason for a school to pack it up and go elsewhere. I really think when things get dicey, the Big 10 is going to come after OU and Kansas. And there has been rumors for years about Kansas going to the BIG. It would probably be a pretty good fit for them.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Getting the Big 8 band back together! Ive thought Kansas would be one of the next programs. The Big Ten really holds bball high, they'd love that ad-on. Getting Oklahoma would bring the land bridge closer to Texas, but it also fulfills a huge Big Ten hard-on for rivalry games. Getting Oklahoma-Nebraska for Black Friday to set up their primiere rivalry on Saturday, would have them eye-rolling orgasmic just deciding on what name to put on the trophy. Two of the historic rivalries would be a nice feather. But keeping on the eastern coast could still be a factor....fuck the took Maryland and Rutgers to insure that Penn St didnt feel lonely. The ACC door closed, I think Uconn would be one of the few viable options left.

But like you say, Texas is a huge player in this. And whatever the whim of their ego aspires at the given moment will decide which direction the dominos fall.
I really hope its not Texas going north. They really dont fit well, but $ trumps a lot in this new era. I think Texas will end up West which will pull some other Big 12 teams in its wake....BYU, Boise, TCU.....Baylor? are fucked......

I couldnt even guess who SEC would go after.

 

[cloverleaf]

RLR, I for sure don't know who the SEC would add but it's well known the league would like a North Carolina team. I believe Florida State would be of interest...both to the league and the school. Virginia Tech would also be of interest.

As has been said many times it all comes down to $$$$$$.

 

[RunLeeRun]

I was reading around, and I thought it was interesting and may shed some more light into the move of the Big Ten adding Maryland. It seems that Maryland (last year) sent out a bunch of subpoenas for information as it built its case for lowering the buyout. One of those was to ESPN, which was rumored to be pushing the ACC to try and poach some Big Ten teams for expansion. This makes sense in that the Big Ten was the darling of ESPN before the Big Ten Network (FOX) came about. It seems to me that with the Penn St sanctions, both NCAA and Conference; its eastern location and relative short history in the Big Ten made them probably the prime target of that. So, Delaney may have been using some preemptive striking to assure Penn St didn't get any serious cold feet if a serious offer came up. That makes the move more understandable, imo.

Would the SEC/Big Ten still be able to poach ACC teams? I thought the ACC had closed the money gap some after expanding (renegotiation) and getting Notre Dame halfway in the door. Let's say the SEC strikes first and gets Vtech and North Carolina. The Big Ten will make a last push to get Notre Dame before looking at any other team. I've also heard they like Virginia.

Really, this could go anyway.

 

[GoSooners]

RLR, I for sure don't know who the SEC would add but it's well known the league would like a North Carolina team. I believe Florida State would be of interest...both to the league and the school. Virginia Tech would also be of interest.

As has been said many times it all comes down to $$$$$$.

If the SEC does raid a couple of ACC teams then we're really going to see the "P5 Shuffle" to form the 4 super conferences. If the SEC gets for example (just an example) Va Tech and NCST, then I'm betting the ACC picks up 4 Big 12 teams, or 3 depending on what Notre Dame wants to do. The ACC as it stands now is 14 teams with ND dipping their toes in the ACC waters. So in reality if things start coming together for 4 super conferences, the ACC could potentially just need one more school to get to 16 depending on the whims of the Irish when they are backed in a corner needing to join a conference. If there is one conference that could entice Texas to join it would be the ACC, especially if Notre Dame comes in as a full fledged member. Knowing UT I just don't think they are going to go anywhere where they don't have a chance to rule the roost. And the ACC looks like the only conference where it can push it's weight around a little.

 

[GoSooners]

I was reading around, and I thought it was interesting and may shed some more light into the move of the Big Ten adding Maryland. It seems that Maryland (last year) sent out a bunch of subpoenas for information as it built its case for lowering the buyout. One of those was to ESPN, which was rumored to be pushing the ACC to try and poach some Big Ten teams for expansion. This makes sense in that the Big Ten was the darling of ESPN before the Big Ten Network (FOX) came about. It seems to me that with the Penn St sanctions, both NCAA and Conference; its eastern location and relative short history in the Big Ten made them probably the prime target of that. So, Delaney may have been using some preemptive striking to assure Penn St didn't get any serious cold feet if a serious offer came up. That makes the move more understandable, imo.

Would the SEC/Big Ten still be able to poach ACC teams? I thought the ACC had closed the money gap some after expanding (renegotiation) and getting Notre Dame halfway in the door. Let's say the SEC strikes first and gets Vtech and North Carolina. The Big Ten will make a last push to get Notre Dame before looking at any other team. I've also heard they like Virginia.

Really, this could go anyway.

I'm still a little surprised Notre Dame never joined the BIG. They are such a good fit there both geographically and with their minor rivalries with Michigan, MSU and Purdue. If ND remains stubborn and wants to stay independent until they are backed against the wall, I think Cincinnati could be the next school in line from the east, and maybe UConn. The possibilty of the Big 10 looking south is what has my curiosity up. Especially if the Big 12 starts unraveling. I believe the Big 10 has the shortest TV contract of all of the other conferences, so they could be the ones to make the first move. I don't think the ACC is going away. Not as long as they have the presence of ESPN as their sugar daddy. The ideal get for them would be Notre Dame, OU, Kansas and Texas. With maybe TCU and another Big 12 team(s) going to the Pac-12.

 

[cloverleaf]

Whew.....That was quite the read "Sooner".....You had to spend some time to research and compose that post-graduate seminar dissertation. I've been following college sports for almost 70 years and I have seen most of the changes that have occurred in modern day (post world war ll) college football.....player skill levels, coaching techniques, equipment (pads and uniforms), practice routines, length of seasons (i.e. number of games), year-around training in the weight-rooms, culinary/diet research, team travel logistics, stadium enlargements and playing field enhancements (turf et al), sideline techniques (electronics, heat, A/C etc.) and the incorporation of modern day broadcast communications...TV. Television is now dictating how the game of football is being presented to us, the fans, and how we now view the game whether it be at the stadium or in the comfort of our own home. Even the cheerleaders and their costumes have changed (have they ever).

To feed the "beast", conference change is inevitable (it has already changed drastically); Geographical considerations are meaningless with the advent of jet travel. There is nothing "Southeastern" about College Station, Texas or Rutgers playing in the upper-Midwest or Salt Lake City or Boulder being identified as the Pacific Coast....so much for regional and cultural identity. I always felt geographic identities were part of the beauty of the game of college football....Nothing like a Big-10 school slugging it out against a Pac-10 school or a Southern school going against one of those "Yankee" schools or Oklahoma "waging war" against Texas.....Sadly, those days are over (I guess that kind of reminiscing is the "sentimental old-fool" in me).

Yes Sooner....the really big changes are coming with conference makeups; How the power-brokers (the money changers) go about it remains to be seen. I hope and pray they don't ruin our beloved game in the process.

Fun read Mack...really good!

My question to you is what was an old coot like you doing up at 4 AM in the morning. Hell, not so long ago I would stay up all night playing cards, drinking and posting here on the RX. Can't tell you how many times I got in trouble with my post during those all nighters. If you ever see me posting after midnight...help and old friend out and tell be to be careful. I like it here and don't want to get banned...been there, done that.

You are one of my favorites Mack, always have been. You and I as old timers both know there are some really good guys here...especially knowledgeable in college football. Fun for me and know you enjoy the banter also.

 

[GoSooners]

The timing of this whole thing is what I'm most interested in. The Playoffs contract will end before the Big 12's GOR's are up. And I believe the ACC too. The playoff situation could and probably will be the key to this whole alignment deal. If they go to a 8 team playoff after this first contract is up, I don't really see a reason why the Big 12 would expand to 12 teams since they will pretty much be guaranteed to get a team in the playoff. The problem with this conference is it is run by a bunch of old conservative swinging dicks that once their minds are made up, are pretty much going to stick with their plan. So unless they are somehow backed against the wall in the next couple of years, I think they will wait it out and see what happens with the Playoff. If they keep it at 4 teams, that's a different ballgame. This is when things could get interesting as far as realignment. BYU wants so badly to be a Power 5 team they can taste it. Of course Oregon has aspirations of winning a national championship every year. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. My only problem with BYU is they are too much like Texas. It's tough enough have one prima madonna in the conference. We don't need another. I still think the Big 12 should look eastward to teams like Cincy and UCF. Bigger TV markets and better recruiting areas.





[h=1]BYU AD Tom Holmoe: 'Intention' is to find Power 5 home in 'near future'[/h]By Jerry Hinnen | College Football Writer


February 25, 2015 10:50 am ET

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Will Algernon Brown (left) and BYU find a Power 5 home anytime soon? (USATSI)
BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe had no shortage of news to deliver at a campus event Tuesday, according to the Deseret News, as he touched on the topics of the team's Miami Beach Bowl brawl discipline, its unscheduled future home games vs. Notre Dame, its relationships with the Pac-12 and ESPN, and more.
But Holmoe's most eyebrow-raising comments came in regards to BYU's future as an independent football program -- or, if the Cougars have their way, their future as something else.
"It's our intention that we would be playing in what they commonly call a 'Power 5' conference sometime in the near future," Holmoe said, per the Desert News. "We're trying to put together games ... that would give us a position to better ourselves, and play in the biggest games that we can, meaning that would be conference championships and, the New Year's Day games and [the College Football Playoff].”
Holmoe said the gap in financial resources between current Power 5 programs and BYU was "real," and the school couldn't afford to let that gap expand "indefinitely." BYU has been linked with Big 12 expansion in the past, and Holmoe strongly implied he would be monitoring the league's current stance that it will not need a 12-team, two-division league -- and the championship game that comes with it -- to break into the Playoff.
"The question is, will [not expanding] be the solution to what they want to do?" Holmoe asked rhetorically. "Will that be their final move? That remains to be seen.”
There's been some good news on the BYU independence front lately, as the ACC has reportedly backed away from its stance that games against the Cougars wouldn't count towards the league's Power 5 nonconference scheduling requirement. But there's been no such report where the SEC is concerned and even if a shift there would help ease the Cougars' scheduling difficulties (and bottom line), it wouldn't erase the financial disparities, either.
If Holmoe is being this up front about needing a Power 5 invite -- while he said the school isn't about to just give up independence tomorrow, "that's what we've got and that's where we are" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement -- it's safe to assume BYU's spreadsheets aren't looking independence-friendly at the moment. But where could the Cougars land? A quick, knee-jerk ranking of the Power 5 conferences, from least to most likely to offer BYU safe haven:
5. SEC. Even college football realignment doesn't get this weird. Plagues of frogs raining from the sky don't get this weird, frankly.
4. ACC. This conference already has its religious football independent, thanks.
3. Big Ten. Well, it wouldn't be all that much stranger than inviting Maryland. But it would still be stranger than inviting Maryland.
2. Pac-12. Now we're getting into "not completely implausible territory," but it's worth remembering that even if the Pac-12 is interested in BYU -- hardly a given -- it has to also be interested in a second school, since no one wants a 13-team conference. And who might that second school be? Boise State? Fresno State? Finding a team No. 14 that could actually add to the Pac-12's revenues rather than just divide them by another school seems ... difficult.
1. Big 12. Yep, just who you'd expect in this slot, but not because of the old BYU-to-the-Big 12 rumors so much as the simple fact that Bob Bowlsby's league has -- by far -- the most obvious motivation to expand. The SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 could sit tight for the next decade and, most likely, no one will bat an eye; the Big 12, meanwhile, is one season into the CFP era and has had eyes batted at it from all directions. If the NCAA gives the thumbs-down to non-divisional conference title games and the CFP Selection Committee continues to give the thumbs-down to teams that haven't played a conference title game, it won't have much choice. Twelve teams it'll have to be.
And if it comes to that, unlike the Pac-12, there's several co-expansion partners that make some level of sense for the Big 12 (Houston, UCF, SMU, etc.).
It's not likely today, it won't be likely tomorrow, it likely won't be likely by the end of next year or the year after that ... but until either BYU kisses independence goodbye or the Big 12 knows it doesn't need expansion to rank fifth-out-of-the-Power 5, expect the speculation to continue.

 

[rolltide]

really don't understand why Houston isn't already in the Big 12 along with a school that can expand their footprint like Cincy

 

[GoSooners]

really don't understand why Houston isn't already in the Big 12 along with a school that can expand their footprint like Cincy

Houston would be useless for the Big 12. All they would do is further water down the Texas recruiting in this conference. Another Texas team is the last thing i want. Most of the downfall of the old SWC was because they had too many Texas teams. The Big 12 needs to expand their footprint to Florida, and Cincy also would be a decent pickup for the conference. But I really don't see anybody else without watering down the conference.

 

[tmader7]

Houston would be useless for the Big 12. All they would do is further water down the Texas recruiting in this conference. Another Texas team is the last thing i want. Most of the downfall of the old SWC was because they had too many Texas teams. The Big 12 needs to expand their footprint to Florida, and Cincy also would be a decent pickup for the conference. But I really don't see anybody else without watering down the conference.

Yeah, but it's coming. See ya brought the grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrls back, a little different "formation." LOL Hope all is well in Soonerland, they actually get snow here in the Carolinas, although they treat 2 inches like a blizzard.

~T~

 

[groundhog11]

really don't understand why Houston isn't already in the Big 12 along with a school that can expand their footprint like Cincy

I thiink it's because the rest of Texas schools don't want another Texas team...they don't make money. Don't they lose an avg of like26 million/yr.

 

[groundhog11]

my take on expansion: i think we slowed down because conferences are waiting on maryland lawsuit etc....once that is over i think we start to move to 4 conferences...most people seem to think BIG #15 team is Virginia.... The big 12 or acc will be gone, although i could see a BIg 12/acc merger in football, pushing wvu toward the east divison...that way texhoma schools, wvu, and acc schools will be happy. The BIG holds all the cards, and once they move the dominos start to fall....I could see Kansas or even Missouri go to BIg10 as 16th team...
what will be interesting is to see if some of these small schools can compete after giving multi yr shholarhsips, possibly paying players etc...like WF.

 

[groundhog11]

i cant see sec wanting anyone other than unc from the acc....possibly vt..

 

[GoSooners]

Yeah, but it's coming. See ya brought the grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrls back, a little different "formation." LOL Hope all is well in Soonerland, they actually get snow here in the Carolinas, although they treat 2 inches like a blizzard.

~T~

If they stay at 4 playoff teams, expansion/realignment is coming. If they go to 8 playoff teams, realignment probably isn't coming anytime soon. If they expand it to 8 teams and the Big 12 adds 2 teams, realignment is dead.

 

[GoSooners]

my take on expansion: i think we slowed down because conferences are waiting on maryland lawsuit etc....once that is over i think we start to move to 4 conferences...most people seem to think BIG #15 team is Virginia.... The big 12 or acc will be gone, although i could see a BIg 12/acc merger in football, pushing wvu toward the east divison...that way texhoma schools, wvu, and acc schools will be happy. The BIG holds all the cards, and once they move the dominos start to fall....I could see Kansas or even Missouri go to BIg10 as 16th team...
what will be interesting is to see if some of these small schools can compete after giving multi yr shholarhsips, possibly paying players etc...like WF.

I'm betting that the Big 10 will try to make some kind of move when their contract is up. They know it's their best and possibly only chance to pull themselves closer to the SEC. They will be first conference to the negotiating table. I mean c'mon, Rutgers and Maryland? What do these schools bring to the table? From what I've been reading, Rutgers is content to be awful. And their basketball program is a mess. Rutgers is the Snooki of the Big 10. A conference armpit with no ambition. They would have been better off going after UConn. At least they bring basketball. http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball...d_julie_hermann_have_surrendered_on_mens.html

I believe any moves the Big 10 makes for here on will be towards the bluebloods. Whether it be basketball with Kansas or football with Oklahoma.

 

[sendacash]

Speaking for my own team Oklahoma, I don't believe the fans will ever be satisfied with the schedule of teams coming to Norman. When you lose 3 flagships from a conference and you play another flagship at a neutral location, it no longer gives you much of a reason for driving down to Norman to watch a football game. OU's home schedule this year is Akron, Tulsa, WV, Texas Tech, Iowa State, TCU. With the exception of TCU this is a terrible home schedule for a P5 power program. It's the kind of schedule that isn't going to make you money. And eventually it's the kind of schedule that will end the days of sellouts in Norman. And one more reason for a school to pack it up and go elsewhere. I really think when things get dicey, the Big 10 is going to come after OU and Kansas. And there has been rumors for years about Kansas going to the BIG. It would probably be a pretty good fit for them.

No team cost me more last year than the vaunted Sooners at home, so maybe they need to eat some cupcakes? You guys should swap with the Colorado schedule, it would probably be a lot more competitive and entertaining, although Colorado should probably be in the MWC.