The Nfl Line!!!! What You Should Know

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EX BOOKIE
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I HAVE A BOOK....THAT HAVE A LOT OF WHAT I CALL FOOTNOTES TO LIVE BY.....IN MY MIND ...THIS IS NO.1

AS A EXBOOKIE I KNEW HOW THE LINE WAS MADE .....THIS IS WHY I MADE
A PROGRAM TO FIND THE LINE VS THE SPORTBOOK LINE TO FIND VALUE + OR -
I'M NOT SURE WHO DID THIS.....BUT HERE IT IS....

FOOTNOTE NUMBER (1)


Successful football handicapping starts with throwing out those old strategies and systems that, on the surface, seem like they should work, but in reality never do. When most sports gamblers set out to make pro football picks, they call upon all manners of statistics as well as their knowledge of the sport to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the spread. Seems logical, right?

Wrong!

This is how most people go about handicapping games, and almost everyone loses. To make enough winning picks to beat the sportsbooks over the long run, you must begin by analyzing the NFL betting lines to match the perspective of the oddsmakers.

This can be accomplished by looking backwards to determine why the odds on a given game involving 2 teams has been set at a particular number, adjusted to a particular number, or maintained at a particular number. How did the line originate? Why is the line the way it is?

By analyzing NFL betting lines in reverse, you'll be able to do two important things for increasing the success of your pro football picks:

1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge, and other unprofitable techniques to pick which team you think will cover the point spread.

2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications in the NFL betting line on a given game to identify which team oddsmakers & insiders think will cover.

Looking for indications in the sportsbooks' point spreads is your best bet for picking which team the oddsmakers and insiders think will cover the spread in a given game.

The key is to understand that the sportsbooks' point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the monetary betting action in half for a given game. In other words, the very existence of NFL betting lines and point spreads gives a sportsbook an element of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game.

To start, the odds on a game are not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors.

Oddsmakers are masters at using point spreads to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments in a given point spread oddsmakers can sway large numbers of sports bettors who have not yet made a decision on which team to bet on in a game to place their bet on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game with a 3 point spread only to make your decision after the line moved down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2? The movement in the spread was the book's effort to balance the action, and often times it can have a direct result on your wagering decision.

Of course, when point spreads are moved, it can also sway sports bettors who have already placed a bet on a game to "put down" additional action on that game... Or to even reverse their direction and bet the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both sides. But as far as the oddsmakers are concerned, keeping the action split at each odds line number (dollar number) or point spread is the key. Doing so allows the sportsbooks to make their juice.

By controlling the odds, the bookmakers have an amazing amount of control over who bets what amount, and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep the action divided in half. However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make adjustments to keep action divided in half, they must choose a starting point or "opening line" for the game.

When creating opening lines, the incentive for a sportsbook's oddsmaker is to choose football odds that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action in half. Doing so guarantees that they can make the most juice.

If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the spread can be adjusted to draw even action, the more vig the sportsbook can guarantee for itself. Simply put, the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk the sportsbook is exposed to, and the lower the profit they stand to make. This is because the sportsbook can get stuck with uneven betting action for any given point spread number, which cuts into profits.

Therefore, you can see that the oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing what specific point spread number would draw even action for a given game before having to release the opening line for that game to the public!

But before oddsmakers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at to draw even action, oddsmakers would need to know which team sports bettors planned to put their money on in advance of that game! And for a variety of different odds line numbers. This brings us to the oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using point spreads to divide betting action in half.

The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing betting action in half is based on the fact that most sports bettors make their decisions by relying on some level of information they have collected about the matchup. To cope, oddsmakers have developed techniques to allow them to measure the level of information that prospective sports bettors know about a given game, and oddsmakers can look at this information before having to release the opening line for that game.

One method oddsmakers use to measure the information level known to sports bettors about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "insiders" to bet into.

For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test lines, it's like having access to free money. Because if the odds end up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit.

But it's well worth it for the oddsmakers to give these insiders the sandwich opportunity. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place bets against early test lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine whether or not the insiders are playing the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they are wagering.

Collecting this type of information about how insiders are evaluating their selection on a given game helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the opening line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of inside sports bettors and general public sports bettors on a given game.

Of course oddsmakers also study general public wagering patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider wagering interest because insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.

For example, insiders may know:

What types of strategies the teams plan to use?

Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play?

Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles?

Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb?

Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside info/inside reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the game that most people simply wouldn't believe it. The level of information that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since oddsmakers are providing insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, sportsbooks' football odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is known to insiders about a given game. This is the golden egg of pro football handicapping.
 

EX BOOKIE
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Turnovers are the number one statistic that leads to victory both straight-up and against-the-spread. As a matter of fact, the team that wins the turnover battle in a given game covers the spread 75-80 percent of the time.
...that plus "line-off"....are the two biggest part in making"MY LINE" THAT KICK IN WEEK 4.....IT WHEN 60% LAST YEAR....AND I FINE TUNE ONE PART...


MORE TO COME

ACE-ACE
 

Rx. Senior
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ACE-ACE said:
Turnovers are the number one statistic that leads to victory both straight-up and against-the-spread. As a matter of fact, the team that wins the turnover battle in a given game covers the spread 75-80 percent of the time.
...that plus "line-off"....are the two biggest part in making"MY LINE" THAT KICK IN WEEK 4.....IT WHEN 60% LAST YEAR....AND I FINE TUNE ONE PART...


MORE TO COME

ACE-ACE

Unfortunately after the event, predicting turnovers before the event can lead to confusion as the better teams can overcome them. So basically they become part of the Favs perceived advantage.
 

EX BOOKIE
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FOR THE NEWBIE THAT WAS NOT HERE LAST YEAR...

What Is Line-off.....as Far As I Know...i'm The Only One That Use This To Get A Line On The Game ....before The Line Comes Out....

Here How It Works:

Last Year Week 1 For Phi....

Phi Was -9 Vs Nyg...phi Won 31-17 They Cover By 5....or +5
So Nyg Was -5

You Do This To Each Game(that Why It Tell A Few Weeks To Kick In...

This Was Phi....last Year

The Line.........line-off.......total
-9 +5 +5
-3 +8 +13
-51/2 +11 +24
-9 +1 +25
-9 +13 +38
-7 -4 +34 Still Won The Game But Not Ats
-7.5 -2 +32
-1 -25 +7
-6.5 +21 +28
-11 +10 +38
-7 +14 +52
-6 +24 +76
-9 -3 +73
-12 -7 +66
+2.5 -10 +56
+3.5 -10 +46
-8.5 +5 +51
-5 +12 +63

There Has Never Been A Team With A Minus In The Superbowl

It Tell Me If Phi Is +63 And The Lions At +20 It Would Tell Me Part Of The Formula To Find A Line ON THAT GAME...I Also Use Time.... Penalties And Turnover.....but By Wt. It More On T/o And Line-off. there are about 10 other thing all so...


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Oh boy!
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"To start, the odds on a game are not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors."

I guess the debate between "even action" and "public money" will continue on for quite some time. For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, "even action" is what Ace explains here. The bookmakers make a line so that the public will be split on either side of the line. "Public money" is making a line so that a larger majority will be on the losing side of a line.

I happen to believe lines are adjusted for public money to some extent. When the Lakers or Yankees play the bookmakers know they will get public money for either of these teams even if the line is adjusted away from these teams because of the sheer numbers of their fans. That insures the book of making more money.

Regardless, I always enjoy reading your articles Ace and I look forward to reading your picks. Good luck this year.
 

EX BOOKIE
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quantumleap said:
"To start, the odds on a game are not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be. It is their assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors."

I guess the debate between "even action" and "public money" will continue on for quite some time. For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, "even action" is what Ace explains here. The bookmakers make a line so that the public will be split on either side of the line. "Public money" is making a line so that a larger majority will be on the losing side of a line.

I happen to believe lines are adjusted for public money to some extent. When the Lakers or Yankees play the bookmakers know they will get public money for either of these teams even if the line is adjusted away from these teams because of the sheer numbers of their fans. That insures the book of making more money.

Regardless, I always enjoy reading your articles Ace and I look forward to reading your picks. Good luck this year.

I COULD NOT OF SAY IT BETTER MY FRIEND....
 

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What types of strategies the teams plan to use?

Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play?

Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles?

Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb?


So are you still privy to this kind of insider information?

TM
 

EX BOOKIE
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Trashmonster said:
What types of strategies the teams plan to use?

Whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play?

Who is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles?

Whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb?


So are you still privy to this kind of insider information?

TM

I TRY TO KEEP UP WITH MY E-MAIL.....I GET ONE ONE NOW AND THAN:suomi:
 

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ACE-ACE said:
The key is to understand that the sportsbooks' point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the monetary betting action in half for a given game. In other words, the very existence of NFL betting lines and point spreads gives a sportsbook an element of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game.

.


I like your posts ACE and i dont want to seem like i am hounding you. But that statement is categorically wrong. I thought it was the truth all this time i was gambling until i had a chat with a sportsbook insider from a casino about 6 months ago and i got to understand that Casinos do take a fair number of gambles (albeit at odds better than us but most gamblers dont know better)

Its correct for a majority of contests but not always the rule the books use.
 

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ACE-ACE said:
Phi Was -9 Vs Nyg...


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Ace, I presume you take the closing line but is it a consensus or do you take it from a certain book?
 

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I would have to say the the process of setting the opening line that is outlined by Ace-Ace is essentially correct. Books need to know the perception of the wagering public. No, they don't care about the $50 recreational player. They care about the $20,000 player. You get the idea.

The whole point is to balance the book. By knowingly taking it in the shorts by offering a pre-opening line to big players, they gain so much knowledge about perception that those losses are worth their weight in gold. Perception is far more important than reality. Crappy books may "take a gamble" but the best in the business are not about gambling, they are about making money in every way possible.

The two worst scenarios for bookmakers are these:

1. Getting middled.
2. Getting hammered at one particular line before they can react. This can happen 10 minutes before kickoff.
 

RX Member
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The reason that any (well-capitalized) bookmaker takes a position on a game rather than achieving equal amount on both sides issimply because the 5 or 10% vig will eventually provide profit.

The problem with such an action is that is is inherently stupid when you
can alternatively lock in 5% of total action by simply balancing the books
(laying off excess action on one side) UNLESS the book knows that his
customers' side is the "square side" .

How can he know this? Re-read Ace's comments regarding fixing the line.

Of course the reason that any bookie or sportsbook fails is because
they have taken positions rather than balancing the books.

Greed is a terrible thing but it is the common denominator of
bookies.
 

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I read that above thread in slightly different words sometime last year and it was very interesting. Since then i've been trying to go furthur with the steps on handicapping backwards, and it takes alot of time and discipline.

Appreciate all the knowledge you bring here. As i did get to see you in work last year when i wasn't a member, and you we're very impressive from what i saw. Look forward to your insight this year:party: good skills:103631605 ACE-ACE
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ray Luca said:
Ace, I presume you take the closing line but is it a consensus or do you take it from a certain book?

9 TIME OUT OF TEN ITS THE CLOSING LINE......."THE LINE OF IS JUST ONE PART OF THE MAKING OF "MY LINE",,,,,,SO IF IT CLOSE AT 8 1/2.....I ALWAY ROUND IT UP OR DOWN....BASE ON WHERE THE LINE WAS MOST OF THE WEEK...
 

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MathProf said:
The reason that any (well-capitalized) bookmaker takes a position on a game rather than achieving equal amount on both sides issimply because the 5 or 10% vig will eventually provide profit.

The problem with such an action is that is is inherently stupid when you
can alternatively lock in 5% of total action by simply balancing the books
(laying off excess action on one side) UNLESS the book knows that his
customers' side is the "square side" .

How can he know this? Re-read Ace's comments regarding fixing the line.

Of course the reason that any bookie or sportsbook fails is because
they have taken positions rather than balancing the books.

Greed is a terrible thing but it is the common denominator of
bookies.


my statement was mostly in reference to las vegas books. Most of them have enough money to cover well over 10X the bets placed with them and as such are very willing to gamble (with the better odds as you posted above)...And in the long run they always end up taking your money...(this is because their bank roll is infinately bigger than yours hence the saying "Vegas always wins")

Case and point (ok this is kind of an extreme example) 2005 superbowl where pretty much all vegas casinos took in way more money on the Patriots -7 than any thing) fine there was a bunch of wise money on the Eagles, but the crowd was over whelmingly pro patriot and not a single one of the casinos moved the line to -6 (the lowest i personally saw was -6.5) on friday night when i arrived and Tom Bradys grand mom had died about 24 to 48 hours before that.

By the time i placed my bet at stardust, i got even money on the Eagles and same thing at the Bellagio where i ultimately stopped to watch the game.


But the truth is at times the casinos will put out a line full well knowing that fans of one team ultimately always get sucked into betting the line no matter what due to their bias. Like in the superbowl, the casual bettors' money out weighs the wiseguys.. (This is where the idea of betting against the public arises, but some people unfortunately dont consider its genesis and mistakenly think that the rule of thumb is simply bet against the public)
 

EX BOOKIE
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HERE A FOOTNOTE ON ME AS A BOOK...

I HAD 75 PLAYERS MOST OF THE TIME
NO MORE THAN 100 AT ANY TIME
I FOR ONE.. DID NOT WANT 50-50 ON EACH SIDE OF THE GAME

IF EVERY ONE BET A $100.......I WOULD OF MADE $500 ON THAT GAME

EVERY YEAR AS A BOOK....I WON MONEY!!!!

EVERY YEAR IT WAS ABOUT THE SAME

5%-10% OF THE 100 WOULD WIN

AND HOW DID THEY WIN ACE
(THERE THAT VOICE AGAIN)

ONLY BETTING NO MORE THAN 5 GAMES A WEEK-END

I WANTED 75-25 PER SIDE....SO THAT I COULD GET MORE
OF THE PLAYERS MONEY...

TOTALY BASE ON "BAD GAMBLING"....
I NEED TO BET.... "ACTION PLAYER"
I'M GOING TO GET RICH FROM THIS....
MOST GAMBLER SPEND NO MORE THAN
1 DAY THINKING ABOUT WHAT SIDE THEY WANT
SOME NO MORE THAN 1 HOUR...IF THAT.....
IF ALL THAT DONT BET YOU
THE 10% JUICE WILL

THE ONES THAT WON DID THEIR HOMEWORK
AND PUT IN THEIR TIME...
THERE'S RARELY A FAST TRACK TO SUCCESS

I ALWAYS TOLD MY PLAYER'S: HAVE FUN WITH BETTING....SET ASIDE THE MONEY THAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.....
YOU AS A GAMBLER WILL NOT TAKE ALL MY MONEY.....AND I DONT WANT TO TAKE ALL YOU YOURS.....

(WORD TO LIVE BY)
 

Rx. Senior
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Its incredible how many posters on this Forum make a statement about bookmaking. 99% have never done it and the other 1% only ever took match bets.
 

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