Years ago I expressed concern to a statistician friend about odds of my boarding a plane where someone might have a bomb.
He ran the numbers and reported back the odds were 12million to one.
But then I started thinking of 1500+ flights daily in the USA alone with avg 200 passengers and it seemed those odds would shrink fast.
So he did some more numbers and reported back, "Just smuggle a bomb on board yourself!"
Because, he had figured out the odds of TWO bombs on the same plane were closer to 1billion to one.
It was about then I lost faith in statistics for forecasting the future