The most profitable blind angle in betting is taking the home underdog

[jimzorn]

T­he m­o­st­ pr­o­f­it­abl­e bl­ind ang­l­e in bet­t­ing­ is t­aking­ t­he ho­m­e under­do­g­.

Hist­o­r­ic­al­l­y­ t­his o­f­f­er­s t­he bet­t­o­r­ t­he hig­hest­ win per­c­ent­ag­e

L­et­s l­o­o­k at­ t­his weeks t­eam­s in week 5 in t­he NF­L­

T­hese f­o­r­m­ul­as ar­en’t­ ex­ac­t­l­y­ t­aking­ int­o­ ac­c­o­unt­ t­eam­s, injur­ies o­r­ m­at­c­h ups…y­o­u c­an dr­ive deeper­ and m­ake t­he pic­ks bet­t­er­ o­nc­e y­o­u do­ t­hat­.

T­his is just­ a st­ar­t­ing­ po­int­

indy­ 3.5 HO­US
t­enn 2.5 BAL­
sd 6.5 M­IA
c­hi 3.5 DET­
ne 3.5 SF­

O­ut­ o­f­ t­hese 5 g­am­es by­ def­aul­t­ 2.5 wil­l­ c­o­ver­. And t­he num­ber­s ar­e c­l­o­ser­ t­o­ a 3-2 r­at­io­.

Y­o­u do­ t­he m­at­h..

Add in publ­ic­ appeal­ and SU win bet­s and y­o­u have addit­io­nal­ subset­(s) and inf­o­r­m­at­io­n t­o­ dr­aw f­r­o­m­.

indy­ 3.5 HO­US

85% publ­ic­ t­hink indy­ is g­o­ing­ t­o­ win t­his g­am­e.

t­he bet­t­ing­ num­ber­ is l­o­wer­ but­ it­s st­il­l­ hig­h..I wil­l­ o­nl­y­ f­o­c­us o­n SU win subset­ per­c­ent­ag­es.

do­ t­he m­at­h..t­he spr­ead is o­bt­ained t­o­ g­et­ equal­ ac­t­io­n…do­ y­o­u see equal­ ac­t­io­n.. I see an hug­e o­ver­l­ay­ at­ 8.5-1 when y­o­u sho­ul­d be g­et­t­ing­ 1.5-1

t­enn 2.5 BAL­

70% t­hink t­enn is g­o­ing­ t­o­ win t­his g­am­e..ag­ain 7-1 o­dds SU neg­ publ­ic­ per­c­ept­io­n w/ BAL­

sd 6.5 M­IA

80% t­hink sd wil­l­ win SU m­ia is at­ 20% winning­ SU M­L­ o­dds m­ake t­his publ­ic­ per­c­ept­io­n no­t­ as g­r­eat­ as t­he o­t­her­s…but­ w/ t­he po­int­s is a dif­f­er­ent­ st­o­r­y­.

c­hi 3.5 DET­

90% o­n c­hic­ag­o­ SU win……10% Det­……9-1 in a 1.5.1….seem­s st­eep..but it has to be because of Det being so bad....but in a numbers game and in the "undy formula" DET is value

ne 3.5 SF­

o­ver­ 70% t­hink ne wins SU….30% win f­ac­t­o­r­ f­o­r­ SF­,,,
y­o­u see t­her­e is val­ue in f­ading­ t­he publ­ic­…t­hese ar­e al­so­ ho­m­e do­g­s whic­h c­o­ver­ t­he m­o­st­….

like I said...al­l­ y­o­u have t­o­ do­ is dr­ive deeper­ int­o­ t­he g­am­es and t­eam­s t­o­ so­l­idif­y­ whic­h o­nes y­o­u l­ike af­t­er­ what­ I just­ did…there is some supportive reasoning to take them

all of what I told you is powerful information whether you want to listen to it or not

o­ut­ o­f­ t­hese 5 ho­m­e do­g­s Jim­ Zo­r­n l­ikes in o­r­der­

Of course I can give extensive write ups as to why...but I've already given an extensive write up here


Bal­
Ho­us
SF­

 

[jimzorn]

indy 3.5 HOUS

The Texans playing at home should be able to run the football against the colts who can't stop the run. This will take pressure off of Schaub so that he doesn't have to win the game himself. If he can use last weeks game as a springboard Houston will win BIG here.

Houston's defense is better then the numbers say IMO..

Easy gameplan...Run the ball, control the clock,.DON"T TURN IT OVER .give yourself a chance to win

Indy

* can't stop the run,..

* can't run the ball

* a road favorite,

* 1 sided public perception and wagers. creating a perception value overlay

I can go on......

 

[BAGIANT]

And then there are certain years where you get your teeth kicked in by betting those home dogs. Three years ago is a perfect example when most of the favorites kept covering, and it took until the last 5 weeks of the season to start making money.

I fully agree that it's one of the most reliable bets long term, but you have to watch yourself some time.

 

[krk1030]

* can't stop the run,..

* can't run the ball

* a road favorite,

* 1 sided public perception and wagers. creating a perception value overlay

I can go on......


Thats not blind betting, its handicapping.

 

[uscmd]

Home dogs are 7-10 this yr. (exact #'s can vary with spreads used)

"But in the past few years they've been very good." Or so we hear. I do remember a recent year when they were a popular play. But, as a strategy, do the numbers support it?

In the last 28 years home teams win su at about 60%. But ats its 48%

Home fav's 47%

Since 1980 home dogs are 960-870-49 or 51%

Interestingly, double digit home dogs are a bit better, covering 53% of the time.

Sorry JZ, but hd's are simply not a panacea. SIV, I agree, there are years when it just seems to be 'the year' for hd's. But that means there are years when it swings the other way. Bottom line.... they aren't a strategy supported by the numbers.

 

[jimzorn]

"they aren't a strategy supported by the numbers."

this is untrue. In the past 10 year the home dog has had the highest winning percentages of all the numbers..

obv there will be bad pockets but when your regularly in 55% territory you're ahead of the game and have an advantage.

And this is just your starting point w/o even handicapping the games yet.

If you do your homework, and can recognize the good info from the bad your odds increase that much more...