The Monday nite football "guess the line movement" thread...

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

I think (and hope) we are pretty safe with the -3 (my 1,000 and fish's 30, LOL) but now it is time to make a decision on the total. Seems like the real sharp books (matchbook and Pinny) are on 37, a key number, while the rest are on 37.5. This may be just like last weeks game and the total bottoms out in middle of the day and when the public gets home from work they will drive the number up. I may bet over 37 at Pinny right now. Was hoping to get some 36.5 but not looking like it, than come back with hopefully some under 39 (but doubt that is happening) around kickoff.

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

Iceman said:
I think (and hope) we are pretty safe with the -3 (my 1,000 and fish's 30, LOL) but now it is time to make a decision on the total. Seems like the real sharp books (matchbook and Pinny) are on 37, a key number, while the rest are on 37.5. This may be just like last weeks game and the total bottoms out in middle of the day and when the public gets home from work they will drive the number up. I may bet over 37 at Pinny right now. Was hoping to get some 36.5 but not looking like it, than come back with hopefully some under 39 (but doubt that is happening) around kickoff.

Not getting involved with the total ICE.

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
Not getting involved with the total ICE.

After thinking it over I say it's too risky. I think with the threat of Garcia and bad weather just too much guesswork involved. Now if I ever see a 36.5 than I am in with an over 36.5 and a play back at under 38, but until then I am out.

Piranha · Dec 4, 2006

I think those that like Philly tonight.......the safer play is Philly +1.5 1st half even though the money is heavy on Carolina and the public was on Seattle yesterday........this is my adjusted way of thinking for this and next week.

boatboatboat · Dec 4, 2006

I want to bet Philly to cover the 3.....

I'll wait, and hope I can get 3.5 latter today.

IMO we won't see 3.5 at Matchbook.

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

boatboatboat said:
I want to bet Philly to cover the 3.....

I'll wait, and hope I can get 3.5 latter today.

IMO we won't see 3.5 at Matchbook.

Philly +3 +110 at SIA

boatboatboat · Dec 4, 2006

I can get +109 at matchbook (the only book I play).

I just keep thinking it mayl move to a 3.5 line. I did place a ML bet for 100 at +156.

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

boatboatboat said:
I can get +109 at matchbook (the only book I play).

I just keep thinking it will move to a 3.5 line. I did place a ML bet for 100 at +156.

At MB, been taking a little off my table at the +109.........the line has come down SLIGHTLY at a few shops the past hour.

boatboatboat · Dec 4, 2006

does your gut think we will see 3.5?

Mine says no.......

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

boatboatboat said:
does your gut think we will see 3.5?

Mine says no.......

At this point, no.

Iceman · Dec 4, 2006

boatboatboat said:
does your gut think we will see 3.5?

Mine says no.......

I have an ace in the hole . A local but I still say yes on the 3.5 (esp at a few obscure books).

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

Iceman said:
I have an ace in the hole . A local but I still say yes on the 3.5 (esp at a few obscure books).

fookineejit · Dec 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
Philly +3 +110 at SIA

SIA back to +3 -105 now.

For +3.5 the best line I can see is -115 but this is at Betfair so is one for the canadians only. With commission it is probably closer to -120 anyway unless you are a frequent bettor there and receive reduced commission.

nhoj · Dec 4, 2006

I would like to see the numbers on this prop.

Stay awake +1200
Fall asleep -2400

This should be another good one tonight. What has happened to MNF?

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

nhoj said:
I would like to see the numbers on this prop.

Stay awake +1200
Fall asleep -2400

This should be another good one tonight. What has happened to MNF?

LOL!

It will be worth it just to see the PHILLY fans booing, crying, and throwing snowballs at Santa.

Fasten your seatbelts.

royboy_3831 · Dec 4, 2006

nhoj said:
I would like to see the numbers on this prop.

Stay awake +1200
Fall asleep -2400

This should be another good one tonight. What has happened to MNF?

This looked like a great game before the season started, hard to figure out which games are the best before the season starts though...

Fishhead · Dec 4, 2006

The Eagles placed Pro-Bowl long snapper Mike Bartrum on injured reserve Wednesday after he suffered a herniated disc in last week’s loss to the Colts. His season is likely over.

Deranbos was signed to replace Bartrum and will see his first action as an Eagle in the Monday nighter.
Philadelphia is Derenbos’ fourth team in three NFL seasons.

hno:

Journeyman · Dec 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
LOL!

It will be worth it just to see the PHILLY fans booing, crying, and throwing snowballs at Santa.

Fasten your seatbelts.

not a cloud in the sky tonight in these parts....cold and crisp tonight.

WharfRat+ · Dec 4, 2006

Fishhead said:
Deranbos was signed to replace Bartrum and will see his first action as an Eagle in the Monday nighter.
Philadelphia is Derenbos’ fourth team in three NFL seasons.

hno:

The guy was also a magician in vegas. No joke.

quantumleap · Dec 4, 2006

Iceman said:
+3.5 is coming for the EXACT reason you said because everyone will be on Carolina, the UGLY :monsters- road favorite.

I've noticed where some lines will go the opposite way of the team being bet on. For example, a team will start out at -3 and will have a lot of bets on it only to move to -2.5.