the math of the scalp. IM CONFUSED. help maybe?

[kailey]

I'm trying to figure out how the scalp works.
I do know you need the underdog + number to be above the favorites - number. I think I found my first one but I have no idea how o figure out the ideal wager for each.

Is there a formual or something? DO you guys just do trial and error to see where the payoff is?
I'm not a scalper nor do I plan to be but I have the last of my cash somewhere and i need it out. I have one more rollover requirement to go of 8x.

what ya got boys?

 

[Dante]

welcome kailey to the RX nice to have you at our site..good luck .


I am unsure of how scalping works also. but im sure there are a people here that will answer you

 

[Jazz]

Math is indeed involved.

Simple example:

Say there's an ML of +140 and the other side elsewhere is -130:

bet $100 at +140 ... wins $140
bet $135 at -130 ... wins $104

In either case, your profit would be a little under $5 per $100 unit (I rounded above).

Yes, it's math. Some can simply use their heads, others use equations imbedded in Excel spreadsheets which are beyond my scope here.

 

[kailey]

ahh ok so this is in fact complicated.

well is there a way to look at to make it easier. You look at the favorite first since that has to be your bigger bet and bet the max there then how do u know what to put on tha dog to exceed what you would lose on the other end?

 

[DarrylParsons]

kailey,

The good news is it's not important to find the optimum number. If you see an opportunity like that, bet large, roughly equal amounts on both sides, and take a little extra on the side you like.

So if you see a +140 and a -136, say...

Bet $1000 on the +140, bet 1360 to win 1000 on the other one, and then put a couple hundred extra on the one you like better.

You will do very well in the long run if you find lots of those. The easy part is putting the money on. The hard part is finding them.

 

[Jazz]

amt to bet on favorite=(A*((B/100)+1)*(C/100))/((C/100)+1)

A = amt you bet on the dog in dollars and cents
B = dog odds (140)
C = favorite odds (130)

This equation derives the amt to bet on the favorite to maximize profit regardless of the bet's outcome.

Sorry, gotta go watch some foots

 

[kailey]

Jazz,

Parsons,
I had one today and missed it cuz i wasnt fast enough thats why Im asking. I can find em. and I can cap games I like but i know there has gotta be a website for converting this


THERE has got to be a site where you type in a bet amount for the favorite and it calculates the amount for the dog.

gotta be! if not im gonna figure this out and make one

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by kailey:
Jazz,

Parsons,
I had one today and missed it cuz i wasnt fast enough thats why Im asking. I can find em. and I can cap games I like but i know there has gotta be a website for converting this


THERE has got to be a site where you type in a bet amount for the favorite and it calculates the amount for the dog.

gotta be! if not im gonna figure this out and make one<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

blah

 

[kailey]

well i was just playing around with the money line calculator at http://www.linesheet.com/parlay.htm

(ignoring the parlay part)

and though I cant grasp jazzes formula I do know how to go about doing it.

Bet the favorite first see what your win be at that amount then cut off a lil of that number and try to win a lil more than your risking. SHuld be trial n error but gettable in 3 trys.

 

[Jazz]

(A*((B/100)+1)*(C/100))/((C/100)+1)

The equation above is a solution to this more general equation - you're simply trying to have the sides of the equation equal each other:

(Dog win - Favorite loss) = (Favorite win - Dog loss)

A = amt you bet on the dog in dollars and cents ($100)
B = dog odds (140)
C = favorite odds (130 – though actually -130, leave the minus sign off)

($100 * ( (140/100)+1) * (130/100)) / ( (130/100) +1)

($100 * ( (1.4+1) * (1.3)) / (1.3 +1)

($100 * ( 2.4 * 1.3)) / ( 2.3 )

($100 * 3.12) / ( 2.3 )

$312 / 2.3

$135.65 = amt to bet on the favorite to make identical profits regardless of the outcome

Dog wins: win $140 – loss $135.65 = $4.35
Fav wins: win $104.35 – loss $100 = $4.35

Program this into Excel and it will work, or have someone do it for you. GL – and Pancho, this is as far as I’ll go – lol

 

[peteep]

I will jump in with a question about scalping. How does one find a good game to scalp? For example, it is VERY rare that a book will have a game at -136 while another book has the same game at +140 for the dog. Do you put a chunk of change on one side and hope the line moves before game time in order to be able to scalp?

Also, is baseball the only game you can scalp on?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Pe you can scalp any sport.

I've scalped baseball, basketball, football, hockey, golf, tennis, auto racing etc...

 

[peteep]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by EveryGamblersDream:
Pe you can scalp any sport.

I've scalped baseball, basketball, football, hockey, golf, tennis, auto racing etc...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

How do you do this? Is it a matter of making a bet on a line which you perceive to be "soft", and then hoping the line moves so that you bet the other side?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Most times the scalps are there, you just have to look for them. Sometimes I take leads on games & sometimes they pan out & sometimes they don't.

 

[smokey]

Kailey, the best scalps I think are in football when you can get -2.5 on the favourite and get +3-4 on the underdog with little juice and all these places now give out bonuses too. One great place is Blue Marlin where you get a free half a point when you buy one. If you want to be a middler, scalp the best thing to do is have as many solids outs as you can. But the problem is that you need a larger bankroll. Boxing is another good sport like when they opened De La Hoya at -140 and now if Mosley wins you are guaranteed big coin. If you are just starting out the best thing to do is follow one or two sports and not everyone. If you gamble long enough a lot of times you can get the feeling if the spreads are going to move up or down. If you are just wanting to rollover your money one more time, just bet the other side somewhere else and lose juice without the bonus. There are some places where they will give you a 10% bonus with one time rollover. Hope this helps.

 

[neverstop]

Scalps aren't around that much like they use to be. Most people starting out betting shouldn't even be worried about that part of sportsbetting right now, especially with the problems with some of the lesser known books out there right now that do have the juicy lines and do not change them quick enough. I do not know if one day it will become a lost art, but in my opinion it is certainly heading in that direction.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Harder and harder to do this by itself. Always a nice tool to have but you can't hardly be a one trick pony anymore. The more outs you have obviously the better it is but the more vulnerable you are as well. Getting tougher and tougher I hear.


Kailey - a scalp is simply when you can bet both sides of the same game and are guaranteed to make a profit. In simple terms, when you add up the two sides and the number is positive you have a scalp. For instance an easy one...

Tampa +105
Toronto +105

If you bet both sides you are going to make 5 cents regardless of who wins. Got it? More later if you aren't clear.

 

[PO69]

OK maybe it is just me, but who in the hell scalps for only $5.00 per $100 bet??????

The seems line a waste of time to me and you always risk not getting paid from one book or another or having to pay the neteller fees.

Maybe it is just me, but guys scalping for only $50 on a $1000 bet need to get a life! Sooner or later they wont get paid

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Players - Most play quite a bit bigger than that and you also can find bigger scalps than the example I used. Still a grind though.......

 

[raiders72001]

I agree scalps are becoming harder and harder to find although you can still find some good ones in boxing from time to time. I also take leads on games like EGD hoping that I'm correctly predicting which way the line will go. Also when scalping I'll make it sided.