Hello all,
Long story short, I’ve developed a proprietary college basketball program that makes ATS picks. My friends and those familiar with it began calling it “The Machine”, so I’ve adopted that nomenclature as well. In brief, the initial inputs are the offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team (SOS adjusted, obviously), which are solely used to determine the Vegas opening lines. Every now and then, the opening line will differ by a few points, resulting from public preference, injuries, etc.; but, in general, the line is based off of these efficiencies, in conjunction with pace figures for each team. What this doesn’t take into account is individual matchups. I don’t want to get too in depth into the underlying processes, but by exploiting matchups that are not taken into account in the Vegas lines (i.e. aspects that are incorporated into a team’s offensive/defensive efficiency and thus the spread but that will not have an impact in a given game based on how those individual teams match up with each other, for example) an advantage can be obtained. The Machine exploits those advantages.
I know most will be skeptical of that explanation, as well as previous records I will state for the system, but please hold off on judgment/criticism until you see the results. For a reference point, from 12/15/2014 through the end of last year’s NCAAB season, The Machine's record was 294-237-7. The win percentage was even better as the season went on: 113-86-1 over the last 200 games of the season, and even better over the smaller sample sizes further along (for what it’s worth, I’ve made a few refinements and believe the numbers should be slightly better for the given periods above for the remainder of this season compared to last season). The Machine produces a lot of plays, as it seeks to exploit any type of advantage as much as possible. Although it may not be as pretty, a 16-10 record produces a greater dollar return than a 4-0 record. These plays are produced for investment purposes as opposed to entertainment purposes. Please do not follow if you’re looking to find a play on every marquee matchup you’re going to watch each night. I follow college basketball intensely but realized long ago that you can’t make money subjectively betting on primetime games. Those who should follow these plays are ones looking to exploit an advantage and make money, even if that means betting on seven games the likes of Western Illinois +8 over IUPUI on a given night. Every now and then, a supremely attractive play will arise, on which I will bet double the standard amount; but, even if there is a 55% advantage to be had on a given game, I will certainly be betting a standard unit on that side.
For those still around, below are the plays for tonight. I will keep track of an overall record and total dollar amount (each standard play is $1,000). Teasers are rare, but it just so happens that there is one tonight. The lines below are what I played each at earlier today - some may have changed (I believe Monmouth can be had at two or so points better now), but I would like to use what I actually played for record keeping purposes.
Good luck to all tonight.
The Machine
Long story short, I’ve developed a proprietary college basketball program that makes ATS picks. My friends and those familiar with it began calling it “The Machine”, so I’ve adopted that nomenclature as well. In brief, the initial inputs are the offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team (SOS adjusted, obviously), which are solely used to determine the Vegas opening lines. Every now and then, the opening line will differ by a few points, resulting from public preference, injuries, etc.; but, in general, the line is based off of these efficiencies, in conjunction with pace figures for each team. What this doesn’t take into account is individual matchups. I don’t want to get too in depth into the underlying processes, but by exploiting matchups that are not taken into account in the Vegas lines (i.e. aspects that are incorporated into a team’s offensive/defensive efficiency and thus the spread but that will not have an impact in a given game based on how those individual teams match up with each other, for example) an advantage can be obtained. The Machine exploits those advantages.
I know most will be skeptical of that explanation, as well as previous records I will state for the system, but please hold off on judgment/criticism until you see the results. For a reference point, from 12/15/2014 through the end of last year’s NCAAB season, The Machine's record was 294-237-7. The win percentage was even better as the season went on: 113-86-1 over the last 200 games of the season, and even better over the smaller sample sizes further along (for what it’s worth, I’ve made a few refinements and believe the numbers should be slightly better for the given periods above for the remainder of this season compared to last season). The Machine produces a lot of plays, as it seeks to exploit any type of advantage as much as possible. Although it may not be as pretty, a 16-10 record produces a greater dollar return than a 4-0 record. These plays are produced for investment purposes as opposed to entertainment purposes. Please do not follow if you’re looking to find a play on every marquee matchup you’re going to watch each night. I follow college basketball intensely but realized long ago that you can’t make money subjectively betting on primetime games. Those who should follow these plays are ones looking to exploit an advantage and make money, even if that means betting on seven games the likes of Western Illinois +8 over IUPUI on a given night. Every now and then, a supremely attractive play will arise, on which I will bet double the standard amount; but, even if there is a 55% advantage to be had on a given game, I will certainly be betting a standard unit on that side.
For those still around, below are the plays for tonight. I will keep track of an overall record and total dollar amount (each standard play is $1,000). Teasers are rare, but it just so happens that there is one tonight. The lines below are what I played each at earlier today - some may have changed (I believe Monmouth can be had at two or so points better now), but I would like to use what I actually played for record keeping purposes.
| Date | Play | Spread | Opponent | Juice | Risk | To Win | |
| 12/15/2015 | Michigan | -21.5 | Northern Kentucky | -110 | $1,000 | $909.09 | |
| 12/15/2015 | Green Bay | -9 | Pacific | -110 | $1,000 | $909.09 | |
| 12/15/2015 | UC Davis | -2.5 | San Diego | -106 | $1,000 | $943.40 | |
| 12/15/2015 | UNC Greensboro | +15 | Wake Forest | -104 | $1,000 | $961.54 | |
| 12/15/2015 | Tennessee Tech | +12 | Chattanooga | -101 | $1,000 | $990.10 | |
| 12/15/2015 | Monmouth | +8.5 | Georgetown | -110 | $1,000 | $909.09 | |
| 12/15/2015 | Teaser: Oregon -3.5/Eastern Kentucky -2 | -110 | $1,000 | $909.09 |
Good luck to all tonight.
The Machine
