The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 3

WillyBoyXXX · Sep 19, 2023

It’s still early, but the quality of NFL offenses – especially QB play – has, to my eyes, taken a huge nosedive. There are, of course, predictable exceptions, and horrendous O-Line play across the league has a big impact, but watching MNF yesterday left me cringing. Dogs, per usual, are feasting ATS at nearly 59%; homefield is no advantage for anyone (34.5% ATS and 40.3% SU); and Overs are a fraction better than Unders. The model had a decent bounce-back week, but if I had some wood to knock on, I would. GLTA

phillyfranko · Sep 20, 2023

Good stuff, thanks brother

WillyBoyXXX · Sep 20, 2023

WillyBoyXXX · Sep 21, 2023

WillyBoyXXX · Sep 22, 2023

Just for fun: a WAY TO EARLY ranking of Offenses, Defenses, Quarterbacks, etc. Mostly because last season’s Mr. Irrelevant, as of two games, today holds the number one position among QBs. It’s also fun to see Baker Mayfield in the top 10, and a smidgen ahead of Patrick Mahomes. And there’s a brief sighting of Garner Minshew (I wonder if the Jets are paying attention).

uscmd · Sep 23, 2023

WillyBoyXXX said:
It’s still early, but the quality of NFL offenses – especially QB play – has, to my eyes, taken a huge nosedive. There are, of course, predictable exceptions, and horrendous O-Line play across the league has a big impact, but watching MNF yesterday left me cringing. Dogs, per usual, are feasting ATS at nearly 59%; homefield is no advantage for anyone (34.5% ATS and 40.3% SU); and Overs are a fraction better than Unders. The model had a decent bounce-back week, but if I had some wood to knock on, I would. GLTA

WILLIE BOY, I think it's predictable. Fewer and fewer starters play in the preseason. Offense is highly interdependent. 1 guy can ruin an offensive play. Defense is not quite as "timing dependent."

I also think we're dealing with Pete Rosselle's legacy, i.e., wanting a league dominated by parity. Every year half the playoff teams are out. Something like 18 years since a Super Bowl winner has repeated. So like the old movie title, 'On any Sunday...........'

I bet college mostly first 3 weeks. Hoping the have and have-nots and injuries start to sort out by then.

BOL 2 all.

WillyBoyXXX · Sep 23, 2023

Couldn’t agree more, and although lack of preseason hurts offenses early on, playing 17 games – and the fact that, for a number of teams, the last few games matter a lot more – has had, I think, more of an impact that people may have first thought.