Finally – the Finals!
The model had an excellent regular season, but the NBA Finals are always a different story – especially the first two days Round 1. The problem being that too much statistical baggage is carried forward that, no matter how much I massage the numbers, there’s seldom a positive outcome. That said, my own personal betting keys are to watch for lingering injuries to starters or other key players, and a team’s relative regular-season success over good teams vs bad. Also, unless a line is a wacky one, I usually go with which team I think will win, regardless of the line. (Vegas usually gets conservative come the playoffs.); and, despite my own contrary numbers, I’m a die-hard zig-zag player (shout out to Mrvolo).
Because of early weekend tipoffs, my projections posts will usually be the night before, the reason being I’m just too old and lazy to get up before the first game starts. A drawback to living in Hawaii, but – not much of one.
FWIW - The regular season standings posted below have been massaged to show the play-in-corrected seedings. GLTA
The model had an excellent regular season, but the NBA Finals are always a different story – especially the first two days Round 1. The problem being that too much statistical baggage is carried forward that, no matter how much I massage the numbers, there’s seldom a positive outcome. That said, my own personal betting keys are to watch for lingering injuries to starters or other key players, and a team’s relative regular-season success over good teams vs bad. Also, unless a line is a wacky one, I usually go with which team I think will win, regardless of the line. (Vegas usually gets conservative come the playoffs.); and, despite my own contrary numbers, I’m a die-hard zig-zag player (shout out to Mrvolo).
Because of early weekend tipoffs, my projections posts will usually be the night before, the reason being I’m just too old and lazy to get up before the first game starts. A drawback to living in Hawaii, but – not much of one.
FWIW - The regular season standings posted below have been massaged to show the play-in-corrected seedings. GLTA
