The lies about conference strengths

[Conan]

Of course as a so-called Pac-10 "expert" I would be a bit incensed by the way schedules play out with regards to National rankings and perceived strengths..

A perfect example... 7 SEC teams were in the top 10 at the beginning of the year. With teams like Citadel on their dockets, they win all their OOC games and who can argue? But because of an easy schedule, a false perception of conference and team strengths are left and the polls reflect that. Take Tennessee as an exception. They had the guts to get out and play out west and it cost them. This is exactly what every other SEC school is afraid of... losing national ranking if they chose to play a tougher schedule. Is it any wonder that they get beat up in the bowls by teams like Utah who also took down a couple of Pac-10 schools the same year (they ended up #2 in the polls)

Well if Utah can rip down the Pac-10 and do the same to the SEC, then why shouldn't the Pac-10 stick with Weber St. and Eastern Washington, Idaho St. etc. and match schedules with the SEC an work their way up the ratings charts the same way as the SEC?

Everyone accused the Pac-10 of being down but they ended up the only conference that went undefeated in the Bowls. Go figure. What this cost USC was a legitimate shot at the NC... and as it turned out, their "weak" schedule was nothing more than perception... far from the truth.

Hopefully that will be fixed, but I would rather see conference schools in the SEC ramp up their schedules to match other conferences instead of conferences like the Pac-10 downgrade their schedules if that's what it takes to make thier schools rank with the rest.

 

[LSUzealot]

wow you are a homer....the pac-10 was underrated this year but who did they play in bowl games? they had 2 good wins...the SEC however had 4 underdogs come in & WIN + another national championship.

 

[Conan]

wow you are a homer....the pac-10 was underrated this year but who did they play in bowl games? they had 2 good wins...the SEC however had 4 underdogs come in & WIN + another national championship.

Yes but Alabama who was your top dog for much of the year IN THE POLLS (which is what counts towards the NC and BCS bowls) were soundly beaten by Utah. I remember all the talk about the MWC, especially Utah beating the Pac-10 scholls which cost them rankings. Had Alabama played Utah and lost earlier in the year like the Pac-10 schools, they would have been nowhere near the ranking they got. That's the point. The way the polls play out, too many east coast writers who almost never see any west coast games, have nothing to go on except game results... irrespective of strength of schedule from the beginning of the season, including all the patsies SEC schools roll on a yearly basis. There's something wrong with that.

I may be a wc homer but my reasoning is accurate. So stay on point snd off the homer thing or you won't make much sense.

 

[russ1945]

Conan: With that kind of an avatar I am with you. Get ready for the SEC onslaught and the Floridians will be all over you. I actually do agree. There is not a lot of incentive to take on all comers during the regular season. Even if you are just trying to defend the Pac 10 these guys will descend on you like a pack of wolves. Utah and USC both had impressive wins in the bowls and these guys will whittle them down to nothing in no time. As long as this whole thing revolves around a mythical champion then it is all about impressing pollsters and computers. Is the risk of a big win overide an undefeated season? Probably not. Perception may now be at an all time high. Although I think there are way too many bowls those who watched them probably did add hind sight to the perception equation.
Some teams need more exposure and that is the networks control. These SEC guys are the flavor of the day and their supporters are going to call you a homer like they aren't themselves. They will excuse away Alabama over one players absence and lack of motivation, on and on. But the main thing is you have the best Avatar and some damn good teams in the PAC 10 that the SEC do not seem to be in any hurry to put on their schedule.

 

[Conan]

Conan: With that kind of an avatar I am with you. Get ready for the SEC onslaught and the Floridians will be all over you. I actually do agree. There is not a lot of incentive to take on all comers during the regular season. Even if you are just trying to defend the Pac 10 these guys will descend on you like a pack of wolves. Utah and USC both had impressive wins in the bowls and these guys will whittle them down to nothing in no time. As long as this whole thing revolves around a mythical champion then it is all about impressing pollsters and computers. Is the risk of a big win overide an undefeated season? Probably not. Perception may now be at an all time high. Although I think there are way too many bowls those who watched them probably did add hind sight to the perception equation.
Some teams need more exposure and that is the networks control. These SEC guys are the flavor of the day and their supporters are going to call you a homer like they aren't themselves. They will excuse away Alabama over one players absence and lack of motivation, on and on. But the main thing is you have the best Avatar and some damn good teams in the PAC 10 that the SEC do not seem to be in any hurry to put on their schedule.

Let them come Russ. As long as the SEC's record vs the Pac-10 is only 7 wins out of the last 18 games, they've got nothing to stand on.

 

[russ1945]

When you go to compare conferences it gets tough in and of itself. When you take strength of schedule and throw that in there it gets even tougher. How many polls had Georgia #1 in the preseason? Why because of their QB and RB and who knows. The point is that these same pollsters will try to defend their choices until their choices have been brought down definitively. When prejudice goes up against perception
then it is in the eyes of the beholder. LSUzealot calls you a homer but will not own up to the fact that he is too. There is nothing wrong with being an ardent fan and it is not easy being a Sooner fan right now but logic and stats will not work against these SEC guys while they are on whatever they are on. Nobody wants to schedule USC and not many teams will venture west to play anyone from the Pac 10 much less take on Utah, Boise St. or TCU. I have been trying to find 2009 schedules so as to study them especially strength of schedules. If you know where this info can be obtained I would be grateful if you would pass it along.

 

[UoweDucks]

Much like Oregon scheduling Boise St. it is a lose/lose for SEC teams to schedule Pac 10 teams.

If they win, they were supposed to and if they lose they'll be hearing about it all year.

 

[MackDonald]

It is virtually impossible to suggest one (major) conferance is stronger than the other because conferances don't schedule conferances, teams schedule games with other teams.

Why would an SEC school schedule a Pac 10 game during the regular season and vice-versa (a few have done it and it might have cost the coach his job).

Play your conferance games first and then let the PLAYOFFS BEGIN. There would be plenty of time and we would end up with a true national champion that every one could live with (for the most part).

Basketball doesn't seam to have a problem
other than an alledged "bad whistle" or call from time to time.

 

[russ1945]

I just compared the USA today preseason rankings to their final season rankings and I think it shows how perception starts everything off wrong before the season even starts. 12 teams on their preseason top 25 didn't stick. That just goes to show and until those teams lose they hang in the rankings just because. The SEC had three teams ranked in the preseason top six which included LSU which did not live up to expectations. Utah, TCU, and Boise St did not make the preseason list although Michigan, Illinois, and Clemson did. Go figure.

 

[SunDodger]

I have been trying to find 2009 schedules so as to study them especially strength of schedules. If you know where this info can be obtained I would be grateful if you would pass it along.

Some non-conference schedules for 2009 as of now:

Florida -- Charlston Southern, Troy, Florida Int., Florida St.
Alabama -- vs. Virginia Tech, Florida Int., N. Texas, Tenn. Chattanooga

Oklahoma -- vs. Brigham Young, at Miami FL, Tulsa, TBA
Texas -- Louisiana-Monroe, at Wyoming, UCF, UTEP

USC -- San Jose St., at Ohio State, at Notre Dame
Oregon -- at Boise State, Purdue, Utah



Here's a link for 2009 schedules.

http://nationalchamps.net/NCAA/college_football_2009_schedules/index.htm

 

[Conan]

This past year everyone put the SEC in front at first with an honorable mention of the B-12. The Pac was regarded as down from the beginning and a few tough games vs Utah and Boise St. brought that perception down even further... but

It was te start of the season and almost every team had it's issues to resolve. And, so after a few weeks when things began to shake out, some teams improved a lot and some got worse (perception-wise.) The SEC lost when it was expected to win and all of their top teams (except Alabama - ironically) took a dump. Florida came on after a hard loss as Alabama did, they escaped a near loss or 2. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 was sorting itself out and a few interesting things happened along the way such as Oregon St. coming on and winning 9 games when most people had them pegged to win only 6 because of its harsh schedule but that didn't matter. Oregon finally found itself with a running QB who was missing from the beginning... then look at what they ultimately did to OK St.

By the end of the year, all of these perceived down "non-USC" Pac-10 teams took care of business in the bowls going undefeated. How ironic that the major conference that was regarded as the most down, the Pac-10, ended up the only undefeated conference in the bowls -- (with the B-10 next up the scale having PSU and OSU both landing BCS spots, and both of them going down.)

Judging from bowl results and final polls which were way more accurate than the preseson polls, would USC's strength of schedule been considered tougher... perhaps tough enough for them to overcome their early season loss to the 18th ranked Oregon St. Beavers who no one thought worthy of even being on the same field as the Trojans? Would it have mattered if their wins vs #10 Oregon and 24th ranked Cal. helped out? I think so. Maybe, as it turned out, their schedule wasn't quite as easy as everyone thought. I am suggesting that once again, it was nothing more than a mis-perception (of their schedule) that kept them out of the NC game.

As someone here said, it's all nothing more than perception by the sportswriters who need to be slapped a few times before they finally get it close to right. (I say close in a generous way because they are never correct in most cases most of the time.)

But, all that aside about people's perception of the Pac-10, a few other teams took it worse. Boise St. (though they lost a 1-point game to TCU and covered) is ALWAYS underrated, and Utah as well were probably the 2 that were hit as bad as anyone possibly could be by the early polls.

Utah made it look easy vs the team that Florida barely beat in the last 6 minutes of their game (vs Alabama.) But how likely will you see a WAC or MWC team in the top 10? Never at the start, never. I don't remember a single case where they were and they are 2 of the most successful programs in the country. (Ask anyone in Florida what they think of Kyle Wittingham's predecessor... UM.) So it's really nothing new about Utah being hoodwinked, including their past undefeated season in '04, Urban Meyer's last season there.

Clearly the writers are full of themselves but the sad thing is that their preseason and early season rankings really do help some conferences and harm others unjustifiably.

The SEC benefits from this prejudice the most. Had their teams been ranked right from the beginning, I doubt that Florida and Alabama's SOS would have counted the same. For God sakes, Mississippi should have gotten a lot more credit from the beginning than LSU and Georgia got. How down is that? But will that matter? I think not. It will take years for these things to level out if it ever does because sportswriters are just as prejudiced as anyone else.

So the bottom line is this... at the end of the day, if you took the top 4 teams from the Pac-10, the SEC and the B-12, there wasn't more than a hairline difference between the conferences.

Why? Because of things like Oregon State beating USC, shutting out Pitt, and nearly beating Utah in their own house, the same team that took care of Alabama easily. But who will remember these things next year? Nothing will change. It's home brewed prejudice and stupidity.

 

[russ1945]

I know that Northcoast gets a lot of credit (or give themselves a lot of credit) about their pre-season analysis. As I recall they picked Notre Dame to be the most improved team in the country. Ouch! These guys spend all the time from Jan to Aug doing nothing but scrutinizing all the tangible factors that they can find. One thing is for sure. I think, and maybe for the first time, people every where have come to terms with the fact that teams like Utah, TCU, Boise St. deserve more recognition. Some teams never live up to expectations, some get stronger every week, some get up for bowl games and some don't. Unfortunately the polls count and the prejudice and agendas are unavoidable because of the human factor.
You throw in some questionable officiating, weather conditions, and injuries then we are right back where we started. Polls are the traditional barometer, tried but not proven. The BCS fiasco is the same black hole it always has been. BUT - life goes on. It is important but probably not as important as a lot of non sport issues, especially now. We are still addressing this issue because we care, because we are competitors ourselves, and because it is hard to let go of one season when you are not sure what the next season will bring when it starts out with one foot in the bucket right from the get go. At the end of the day, in terms of wagering, if you would have bet on no one except OU and Florida you would have gone something like 22 and 4. I think of all the time I spent handicapping last year I have to ask myself why didn't I just plop down a couple grand on those two teams every time they played and let the rest of the games go. Go figure.

 

[Gator627]

Of course as a so-called Pac-10 "expert" I would be a bit incensed by the way schedules play out with regards to National rankings and perceived strengths..

A perfect example... 7 SEC teams were in the top 10 at the beginning of the year. With teams like Citadel on their dockets, they win all their OOC games and who can argue? But because of an easy schedule, a false perception of conference and team strengths are left and the polls reflect that. Take Tennessee as an exception. They had the guts to get out and play out west and it cost them. This is exactly what every other SEC school is afraid of... losing national ranking if they chose to play a tougher schedule. Is it any wonder that they get beat up in the bowls by teams like Utah who also took down a couple of Pac-10 schools the same year (they ended up #2 in the polls)

The season started with UNRANKED Alabama beating the piss out of #9 Clemson. Seriously, using Tennessee should not be allowed. They even lost to Wyoming....it was a bad year in Knoxville.

 

[guitarjosh]

Here is part of the problem: the Pac-10 schedules 9 conference games, something no other conference does. That means that half the conference is guaranteed to lose a game. Plus they always play a much more difficult OOC schedule. The SEC and Big-12, the ones called far and away the 2 best conferences this year, scheduled more 1-AA OOC opponents then ranked OOC opponents. The Big-12 scheduled 6 ranked OOC teams this year, the SEC 5. The Pac-10, scheduled 11. So basically the Pac-10 loses 10-15 games every year just because they schedule so much tougher.

 

[Conan]

The season started with UNRANKED Alabama beating the piss out of #9 Clemson. Seriously, using Tennessee should not be allowed. They even lost to Wyoming....it was a bad year in Knoxville.

Imagine that, an unranked team busting into the top 10 much less being ranked #1 for weeks on end. Who else but a biased east coast sportswriter's beloved SEC could this ever happen to? How ironic that another unranked team at the start of the season from the west beat the snot out of Alabama... but it also took an undefeated season to bitchslap the pollsters into making any sense. So much for the eastern sportswriters who make the polls and their eastern bias.

Thanks for pointing Alabama out. You helped make my point. Too bad you left Utah out of the equation or you would have gotten it right all by yourself.

 

[Conan]

I know that Northcoast gets a lot of credit (or give themselves a lot of credit) about their pre-season analysis. As I recall they picked Notre Dame to be the most improved team in the country. Ouch! These guys spend all the time from Jan to Aug doing nothing but scrutinizing all the tangible factors that they can find. One thing is for sure. I think, and maybe for the first time, people every where have come to terms with the fact that teams like Utah, TCU, Boise St. deserve more recognition. Some teams never live up to expectations, some get stronger every week, some get up for bowl games and some don't. Unfortunately the polls count and the prejudice and agendas are unavoidable because of the human factor.
You throw in some questionable officiating, weather conditions, and injuries then we are right back where we started. Polls are the traditional barometer, tried but not proven. The BCS fiasco is the same black hole it always has been. BUT - life goes on. It is important but probably not as important as a lot of non sport issues, especially now. We are still addressing this issue because we care, because we are competitors ourselves, and because it is hard to let go of one season when you are not sure what the next season will bring when it starts out with one foot in the bucket right from the get go. At the end of the day, in terms of wagering, if you would have bet on no one except OU and Florida you would have gone something like 22 and 4. I think of all the time I spent handicapping last year I have to ask myself why didn't I just plop down a couple grand on those two teams every time they played and let the rest of the games go. Go figure.

I don't know about you but I was banking against both Washington teams every week, even in games where they were getting upwards of 40 points! I think between the 2 of them they covered 3 or 4 times all season.

Yeah I see your point. Coulda woulda shoulda. At least I did pretty well overall getting almost 2 out of every 3 bets right. It wasn't easy. It took a ton of reading and sorting through the weekly schedules to make out, but like you, I wish I had a time machine or a crystal ball. I think if I had one now I'd see both Washington teams doing mostly the same next season.... but not as extreme as this year. Spring practices begin in about 2 months. I can hardly wait.

 

[MackDonald]

It would be interesting to find out if weather affects teams in differant ways.

Southern schools (SEC etc.) spring-train and preseason practice in stiffling heat (April-July and August) where as Pac-10 schools conduct their pre-season training in more moderate temperatures/humidity (Washington, Oregon, Northern California etc.) The Arizona desert has plenty of heat but less humidity.

Just curious as to whether this could be factor down the stretch of a long season involving warm weather/cold weather teams?

 

[Conan]

Here's a great way to get yourself ranked and get a jump on all the rest of CFB.... (brilliant)

SEC OOC games by team:

LSU: (weeks 1-4)
@Washington
Vandy
LA Lafayette
@Miss St.
LA Tech (week 10)

Florida: (weeks 1-4)
Charleston Southern
Troy
Tennessee
@Kentucky
FL International (week 11)

Alabamaweeks 1-5)
V Tech.
FL International
N.Texas
Arkansas
@Kentucky
Chattanooga (week 11)

Auburn: (week 1-4)
LA Tech
Miss St.
WVA
Ball St.
Furman (week 10)

Georgia:
OK St. (week 1)
ASU (week 4)
Tennessee Tech (week 9)

It looks to me like LA Tech and Fl International are popular for being passed around the SEC like a cheap ho. Then they find other teams to play that most people have never heard of.

I'm not surprised. Georgia is the only "elite" SEC team with more than one BCS opponent outside of conference play. They play 2 BCS teams which is equal to the entire SEC elite COMBINED. Auburn plays WVA and 'Bama plays WVA... that's all folks. (unless you count LSU traveling to play hapless UW)

What a sham. What a weak SOS that conference plays. But the sportswriters that do the polls will give all 5 teams I mentioned a free pass and an elite top 10 rank anyway after they all go undefeated for the first 4 weeks of the season. Typical.

The point is that there is so much eastern bias even in the light of cheap patsy schedules like that, and it won't matter because they will all be UNDEFEATED and ranked anyway (despite the fact that they beat nobody.) Only 2 out of 20 OOC opponents rate but who notices these thngs, who cares? And with Florida having only ONE tough game all season (@LSU), they might go undefeated beating next to nobody. Should Florida deserve to go witn a schedule like theirs, having proven nothing and by beating who again?

And this is how SEC teams "earn" their rank, even if USC plays just one patsy and travels more than 2000 miles twice?

This is a typical year. The polls that decide who is ranked where and who plays in the NC is pure bias. But then again, the SEC deserves a berth in that game because after all, it is the SEC. Ask almost any SEC fan, they'll tell you the very same thing as they whup the daylights out of all those patsies and confront each other maybe twice.

 

[russ1945]

Sun Dodger: thanks for the link. I breezed thru the schedules and a few things looked pretty clear to me. Florida has a pud schedule and does not play Georgia this year. Their two toughest games are LSU (and they have two weeks to get ready for that one), and Florida State in the last game of the year. Florida St must have one of the toughest schedules in the country next year and if they get by all those teams successfully the Florida game would be one of the biggest of the year. Florida with every body they have back and really only having to get up two or three times all year I have to admit they should be there at the end of the year. Penn St. has a pud schedule also having only to get by Ohio State from all appearances. If they go undefeated this whole thing could get really complicated. For instance, if TCU beats Utah at home they have a good chance to go undefeated. OU and USC have tough schedules and the winner of the Texas/OU game might run the table. Texas has a much better chance than OU but if OU beats Texas their strength of schedule might pay dividends at the end of the season. Texas has three home games in a row against weak opponents going into the OU game. USC plays at Ohio St, at N.D. and still has to get by Cal, Ore, and Ore St. Utah has to get by TCU and then they are right back where they were last time. Boise St. has to beat Oregon and Tulsa. Then there are all the sleepers. All in all in looks good for Florida and Penn St and the winner of the OU/Texas game. Now what is wrong with all of this. This is exactly what the so called experts look at before they come up with the preseason polls. I gave it a cursory glance and it is not hard to see how they come up with their "revelations".
Whenever the preseason rankings come out, based on past experience as many as half of those teams will be out of it by December. I guess that is why they play the games, huh.

 

[MajorGCG]

Conan I understand your point, but I don't agree with it. First to use UT as your example is terrible because they are an awful team with little talent, no depth, no leadership, and no coaching. You send a bevy of any other SEC teams to UCLA and they leave with a win.

As for the OOC schedule, more often than not the SEC itself is incredibly strong. It was weaker last year because of the huge turnover in QB's from the 07 season. Next year will see a bit of a revitalization - Mallet/Nathan Dick at Arky, Jefferson at LSU, Snead for yr2 at Ole Miss, Tebow returns, Cox at UGA is underrated IMO. The East will definitely be the weaker side as USCe, UK, UTn and Vandy will be poor again. However, on a regular basis the league beats up on each other. Even Vandy made and won a bowl this year. You just dont see that in other conferences. Indiana will always suck. Some combo or ASU/ UA/UW/WSU will always suck. So teams like SoCal can schedule tougher OOC because they don't take the beating week in week out that teams in the SEC take. The SEC is a BRUTAL conference and to schedule a tough OOC team is stupid for them to do. They prove themselves every week. Just look at the title winners. The SEC has nothing to prove to anyone. They play the best ball, even if the QB play was a little down last year.