Wizard's 2016 kentucky derby
Pace Scenario With DANZING CANDY breaking from post 20, Mike Smith should have no trouble getting to the front with an alert break. He is simply quicker early than any other horse in the Derby field. The horses breaking from posts 1-2-3-4, TROJAN NATION, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and MO TOM have no early speed and figure to drop well back of the leaders early on. GUN RUNNER, DESTIN, NYQUIST, MOHAYMEN, OUTWORK, TOM'S READY, SHAGAF , EXAGGERATOR and MOR SPIRIT will spread out behind the pacesetter, some taking up the chase, but all within the top 10 positions entering the backstretch. MY MAN SAM, OSCAR NOMINATED, LANI, WHITMORE, MAJESTO and BRODY'S CALL are the others who are expected to do their running from the back of the pack.
The fractions set by DANZING CANDY will be honest with several horses making middle moves, which will result in the pace heating up around the far turn. I cannot recall a Kentucky Derby in recent memory that has so many deep closers who look very similar on paper and ability. A good trip or a bad one will spell the difference in the outcome of many of these runners. Obviously NYQUIST has the best credentials, but if he does not get the distance and the right set up as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, you can expect big prices and generous payoffs if he does not win.
M/L Jockey Trainer 1st Selection # 6 MY MAN SAM 20-1 ORTIZ, JR. I BROWN C
Along with Outwork and Shagaf, My Man Sam is the third horse in the Kentucky Derby field that has the least racing experience with just 4 starts. His inexperience should not be held against this steadily improving 3-year-old conditioned by top horseman Chad Brown.
Draw a line through his debut when a troubled fifth sprinting on the Aqueduct inner dirt track in December. 6 furlongs is far too short for him. It was evident My Man Sam wanted distance when he exploded to an 8 length maiden win stretching out to 2 turns for the first time in his 3-year-old debut. On March 6, My Man Sam was bet down to the 7-5 favorite, despite facing stakes winner Matt King Coal, who was the lone front runner in the field, but who was also returning from a layoff. As expected Matt King Coal took command right from the start and held on gamely, with My Man Sam cutting into his lead with every stride. Time had run out for him to overhaul the front runner on a track which played kind to speed.
My Man Sam had shown enough ability to search for the right Grade 1 stake to try to accumulate enough points to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than keeping him in New York for the Wood Memorial where Chad Brown had the favorite with Shagaf, Brown shipped his charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes. Little did the connections know until entries were drawn that a full field of 14 horses would break from the gate, with My Man Sam drawing post 14.
When I handicapped the race, there was really no hesitation on my part to make him my top selection, even knowing that his post was going to be very difficult for him to overcome. If My Man Sam had shown an affinity to race on or near the lead or even rate in mid pack, the outside draw would have certainly resulted in a very wide trip and certain defeat. The fact that he is a deep closer, gave jockey Julian Leparoux no choice but to take My Man Sam back to the rear of the field and ease his way to the inside. From that vantage point, racing a dozen lengths off the leaders, he could bide his time as the race developed in front of him and then ask My Man Sam to begin his rally on the far turn. This colt prefers to race outside of horses, so the danger from falling so far back and having to pass 13 horses, was likely to force Leparoux to take the overland route. My Man Sam, under a full head of stream, was fanned out towards the middle of the track turning for home. He had to find another gear once straightened out for the stretch run. Once he did, My Man Sam was picking up horses one-by-one. In the end, he had too much ground to make up and too little time to run down winner Brody's Cause who got the jump on him. In the end, it was post 14 that was the main culprit for his defeat. The fact that My Man Sam could even run second with so much ground loss, proved to everyone watching his performance that he was more than worthy of consideration as one of the major contenders in the Run for the Roses.
The question going forward is can My Man Sam continue to improve making only his fifth career start after having run nearly once a month since December. That is quite a bit of racing over a relatively short period of time. Like many others in the field, My Man Sam has no early speed and will drop well back off the early leaders into the clubhouse turn. He is not quite as slow in the early going as several others in the Derby field who I would label deep stone cold closers. I can see at least 5 other horses who could be lagging farther behind him.
My Man Sam is more a grinder than a horse with cat-like acceleration. My concern is that he will have to sustain too long a run, which could take the punch out of him in the late stages of the race. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz will be back aboard. Ortiz is one of racing's bright young jockeys, who has a keen sense of timing. Ortiz will have to utilize every ounce of his talent to time his move just perfectly and avoid trouble in the midst of his late run. It is certain that Chad Brown will have My Man Sam as good as hands can make him. If everything falls just in place and the stars are aligned for his connections on Saturday, My Man Sam can win the Kentucky Derby at a generous price.
My Man Sam drew post 6 which is ideal for him, unlike post 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like many others in this field, he will have to work out a trip, but I have complete faith in Irad Ortiz Jr. that he will get My Man Sam to settle and avoid trouble and too
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wide a trip. I picked My Man Sam to win the Blue Grass without Irad aboard. Now one of my favorite riders is back in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning-line, My Man Sam now becomes my top pick. Since I can see either of my top 4 selections winning, this year's Kentucky Derby becomes a 'price play' for the Wizard. At those generous odds which I expect My Man Sam to be, I'll take my shot for a generous payoff and hold my breath for a trouble free journey.
2nd Selection #19 BRODY'S CAUSE 12-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D
The son of Giant's Causeway is the only horse entered in the Derby field who can say he is 'Kentucky's' hometown boy. There are many in the field who have been bred in the 'Blue Grass' state. Not only was Brody's Cause born here, but his trainer Dale Roman has been a fixture on the Churchill Downs backstretch since taking out his trainer's license in 1984. Born in Louisville and a son of a former trainer, Roman's saddled his first winner at Turfway Park in Florence Kentucky three year later. Romans has saddled many Grade 1 stakes winners since, including three Breeders' cup victories, winning the 2005 Dubai World Cup with Roses In May and the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford. Other notable horses trained by Roman's are Kitten's Joy, Paddy's O'Prado, Little Mike and who could forget Keen Ice who he predicted would upset American Pharoah in last year's Travers Stakes at 16-1 odds and he did just that. The highlight of Dale Roman's career came in 2012 when he was the recipient of the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer. But all these accomplishments would pale in comparison to winning the one race which has eluded him, the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Romans has started six horses in the Derby. The closest he has come are a pair of third place finishes with Paddy O'Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012. This year Dale Romans, along with successful owner Albaugh Family Stable (owner of Paddy O'Prado) arrive at the big dance with Brody's Cause, who completes the Kentucky connection.
Brody's Cause began his career on turf at Ellis Park located in Henderson Kentucky. He was defeated by 25 lengths that day and has never seen the grass again... except for eating it. Brody's Cause made a huge turnaround when placed on dirt for the first time 41 days later at a 1 turn mile at Churchill Downs to upset a strong maiden field at 33-1. He proved that win was no fluke by stepping up sharply in class into the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October to score again, this time at 11-1. In both races, Brody's Cause picked off rivals one by one from the back of the pack.
Brody's Cause had earned the chance to conclude his 2-year-old campaign with a victory and Eclipse Award as the top 2-yearold in the country in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Churchill Down leading rider Corey Lanerie, who had been aboard for the first time in the Breeders' Futurity victory, was once again content to let Brody's Cause lag far off the early leaders. He made up ground at every call to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. If the race had been run at 1 1/8 miles, a 1/16th of a mile longer, Brody's Cause would probably have won. Dale Roman's and anyone who observed Brody's Call strong finish, knew that Roman's had a quality 2-year-old, soon to be 3, on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Brody's Cause first race back from his Breeders Cup loss would be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He would be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff and racing outside of Kentucky for the first time. Bet down to the favorite at 2-1 for the first time in his career, Brody's Cause was bumped soon after the start. He took up his usual position at the back of the pack. At the half mile pole, he was 12 lengths back of the leader. He never picked up a hoof, finishing 12 lengths back at the wire, beating only 2 horses, in what was beyond a disappointing performance. What had possibly gone wrong for Brody's Cause to finish a well beaten seventh?
Whether it was not handling the quirky Tampa Bay surface, Florida heat and humidity, the lengthy layoff or simply an 'off day', no one knew for certain. Even Romans and his longtime companion Tammy Fox, a former jockey and for several years Romans main exercise rider and integral part of his successful stable, had no answers to Brody's Cause not showing up that afternoon at Tampa.
It was time to put that race behind them and seek redemption four weeks later back in the friendly confines of the state of Kentucky at Keeneland race-course. Brody's Cause would have to show big improvement and at the very least hit the board, to provide his connections with the confidence he was worthy of a start in the Kentucky Derby. They only had to wait 1:50 1/5 seconds to have their answer. Brody's Cause was back to himself with a decisive 1 3/4 length victory against 13 rivals. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, Brody's Cause rallied from far back to split horses in mid-stretch and win with plenty left in the tank. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the first time, asked Brody's Call to begin making his move midway on the far turn. Knifing his way between horses and then easing outside and splitting rivals again in mid-stretch to take the lead, Saez still had enough left to fend off the late run of My Man Sam and Cherry Wine. Brody's Call's victory, which was a huge rebound from his Tampa debacle, should not be underestimated. What's so impressive is that he could sustain such a long rally, while navigating his way through traffic, and still prevail.
Brody's Call enters the Kentucky Derby with renewed confidence and must be considered a major player. Dale Romans is a master at pointing a horse to a major race and winning at generous odds. Brody's Cause will have to take another step forward to win the Derby, but what I expect to see on Saturday is a career best performance stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. However, like many others in this field who are deep closer's, it will come down to a trouble free trip and a well-timed ride. If both happen, Brody's Cause is on a short list of those likeliest to succeed closing from far back.
When posts were drawn, Brody's Call drew 19. With the pacesetter breaking in post 20, it comes down to what type of trip jockey Luis Saez can work out. He will have to take back as was expected, but now Saez must try not to lose too much ground as he
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attempts to move closer inside to avoid a very wide journey. If Brody's Call had drawn a better post, he would have been my top selection. The most difficult thing for me in races like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, when I like a horse that I planned on putting on top who does not get any number of post positions which I was looking for, is having to call a late audible. In this case, I must call the audible.
3rd Selection #13 NYQUIST 3-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D
Nyquist brings an unblemished record, 7 starts with 7 wins and $3.2 million in earnings, into the Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite. He has won at 5 different distances at 4 different races tracks. Nyquist has won on the lead, stalking up close and even closing from well back of the leaders, as he did in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, after being bumped hard at the start. That victory resulted in his fifth straight victory, earning him an Eclipse Award and the role as the future book favorite for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Can history repeat itself for the trio of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez? All three orchestrated the 15-1 upset victory by I'll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Unlike I'll Have Another, whose final Derby prep came in the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist shipped across country to contest the Florida Derby as his final tune up. The decision was based on the $1-million-dollar bonus his owner would receive as a result of being sold at a 2-year-old sale in Florida.
Nyquist would face off with Mohaymen, who was also undefeated in 5 starts. Mohaymen held a big 'home court' edge. He had spent the winter in south Florida and had 2 stakes wins to his credit at Gulfstream Park as a 3-year-old. Mohaymen had also proven himself at the Florida Derby distance, winning the Remson at Aqueduct in his final start at 2. For these reasons, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5 with Nyquist at 6-5. The odds of the other 8 runners ranged from the third choice going off at 15-1 to the longest price in the field at 180-1. This unusual betting variance in the Florida Derby tells an interesting tale. The obvious is that handicappers and the betting public clearly felt it was a 2 horse race, which it clearly looked like on paper. What the odds also told you was that the opposition was simply overmatched on all handicapping principles. Some were considered so outclassed, that you wondered if they could even win an entry-level Allowance race. One horse was still a maiden. 6 others had only a maiden win to their credit. Fellowship, who was making his 11th start, had won 2 races, a win in his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs and a win around 2-turns last October. To put it mildly, other than Mohaymen and Nyquist, this was one bad Florida Derby field!
As soon as the gate opened for the Florida Derby, you knew right away that Gutierrez was going to be aggressive and ride Nyquist like he was the best horse in the race. The tactics were simple, 'catch me if you can'. It was no free pass for Nyquist on the front end, except that the 2 horses who put pressure on him were the 124-1 maiden and a 136-1 recent maiden claiming winner for a $50,000 tag. Fighting those 2 rivals off to await the challenge of Mohaymen would set the stage for a stretch battle which never materialized. Sometimes there are outcomes which are simply 'head scratchers'. We all knew where Nyquist was positioned turning for home. Now our sights were set squarely on Mohaymen to await his attack. Just as quickly as he began to make his move while racing wide turning for home, it only took a few more strides to realize that Mohaymen would come up empty. He flattened out to finish a well beaten fourth, an inexplicable 8 1/4 lengths back of the Nyquist. Nyquist showed up to the dance. Mohaymen declined the invitation when it was time to respond.
What did the outcome of the Florida Derby tell us? It told us Nyquist is a very good horse and even a deserving favorite, who will be over bet because of his credentials. He defeated an awful field in a race where something had to be amiss with the favorite to have run so poorly. The main track had plenty of moisture and was labeled 'good' from the rains which fell on and off throughout the day. The track had been sealed and then the seal was removed for the Florida Derby after 3 previous stakes races which were run on grass. From the last dirt race run at 4:34 PM, to the start of the Florida Derby which went off at 6:57 PM, a span of 2 hours and 23 minutes, a lot changed with the dirt surface, which had a hand in the final outcome. It was a quirky track that that some horses handled and others did not.
When I look closely at Nyquist's lifetime past performances, I see a horse who faced a west coast based horse named Swipe in 4 of his 5 starts as a 2-year-old. Swipe ran second each time. Swipe returned in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in his 3year-old debut April 16 as the co-favorite and was awful. Nyquist was impressive winning the BC Juvenile, but he did have a relatively trouble free trip. In the San Vincente, which was his first start at 3, he beat a quality horse in Exaggerator as the 1-5 favorite breaking from the rail against only 4 rivals.
For all Nyquist's conquests and the fact that he is battled hardened and the will to win, I still cannot pick him as my top selection. Many people will point out that his pedigree is not suited to 1 1/4 miles. I put little credence in that statement because he does have enough stamina influence on his dam side, and speed and middle distance from his sire Uncle Mo. The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race in that 20 horses will all be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their career and may never see that distance again. Nyquist is a very good horse and in the end could develop into a great horse. Nevertheless, as the clear cut betting favorite and a horse who certainly has all the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby, I have enough reasons not to choose him as my top selection. He will be included in many of my exacta and trifecta wagers.
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Nyquist draws a very good post in 13, but as the morning-line favorite at 3-1, I cannot pick him to win. It's as simple as that for me.
4th Selection #14 MOHAYMEN 10-1 ALVARADO J MCLAUGHLIN K
Mohaymen took his unblemished record of 5 wins in 5 starts into the Florida Derby. 3 of those victories came as a 2-year-old, including a win in the Remsen at Aqueduct to conclude his juvenile campaign. With Mohaymen on the sidelines, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist was voted 2-year-old horse of the year. A legitimate argument could be made over which horse was the best juvenile colt. If you believed that Mohaymen was the better of the two, the debate would be settled at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby where these two undefeated 3-year-olds would face off in what looked on paper to be a 2 horse race.
In the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5, with Nyquist at 6-5. The rest of the field was 15-1 and higher. What was billed as a "match race" ended up nothing of the sort. Nyquist proved much the best with a decisive win. Mohaymen could not have been any more disappointing, finishing a well beaten fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The result of the Florida Derby will now have a huge impact on the odds on these two runners when they meet up for part two of their encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If Mohaymen had won the Florida Derby, he would no doubt be the 'clear cut' betting favorite in the Run for the Roses at around 7-2. Nyquist would be in the vicinity of 8-1. A switch in roles and closing odds between these two now changes, with favorite Nyquist going off in the vicinity of 4-1.
Handicappers and the betting public have short memories. Many times too much emphasis is placed on a winning or losing effort. In Mohaymen's case losing by such a lengthy margin and even being out finished by two long shots, who on paper had no right at all to finish in front of him, makes you have to come up with some very sound reasons to draw a line threw his race. After thinking about it long and hard, I am doing just that.
First and foremost, Mohaymen ran well enough in his 5 previous starts to distinguish himself as a top class 3-year-old, especially when compared to many on the Derby trail who are nothing more than good horses with much to prove. In the Florida Derby Mohaymen was asked to run over a very 'quirky' wet track for the first time in his career. He never seemed comfortable over the footing. Mohaymen raced wide throughout on the part of the track which appeared more tiring than the inside paths. He was unable to get any traction to sustain a move he began making approaching the stretch, but then flattened out from the 3/16th pole to the wire. It was also a hot and humid day with a big crowd. Perhaps something was amiss that would only be discovered after he was walked back to the barn and cooled out.
Finding legitimate excuses to discount a race is only one piece of the puzzle. The main piece is what has developed in the days following the race as a horse like Mohaymen prepares for his date with destiny. You look for clues like insightful comments by the connections and, most importantly, how the horse trains leading up to the race. When Mohaymen ran in the Florida Derby, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was in a rare bad slump. One week earlier, he had fired blanks with all his starters at Meydan, in the Dubai World Cup races. His prized runner, Frosted, from whom he expected big things, came up totally empty. We all have our bad runs and good runs. It's a fact of life and racing is no exception. McLaughlin is a super horseman and time heals all ills. He has been at Churchill supervising the training of Mohaymen since he arrived in mid-April. He wants no stone unturned in his preparation. You want to see your Derby horse work well over the surface. Mohaymen has done just that, working brilliantly under the Twin Spires. McLaughlin has been 'fine tuning' a little bit with the shoeing, adding glue on shoes which seems to improve a lot of horses.
I expect a vastly improved performance by Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby. He is bred on both his sire and dam side to adapt well to 1 1/4 miles. His best asset is his tactical speed, which will allow jockey 'Junior' Alvarado to settle him in perfect striking position early on and get first run on both the mid pack runners and the deep closer's. Mohaymen has been the favorite in all 6 starts at odds as low as 2-5, but never higher than 9-5, which was in his career debut. In the Kentucky Derby you will be generously rewarded at a price you would never dream of getting before the Florida Derby and possibly never again if Mohaymen redeems himself on Saturday.
Mohaymen drew post 14 which is ideal for his stalking running style. 'Junior' Alvarado should be able to work out a good trip without much ground loss. Now it's up to Mohaymen to show that his last race was an aberration and he is up to the task winning at 1 1/4 miles.
5th Selection # 2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1 QUINONEZ L VON HEMEL D
This 3-year-old gelding is a mirror image of several deep closers in this year's Kentucky Derby field. Like those horses, Suddenbreakingnews has been a gem of consistency, winning 3 races, twice in stakes and placed 4 times in 8 career starts. His lone off the board finish was when he ran 5th as the 5-2 favorite breaking from post 14. Only once has he shown any early speed and that was in his maiden win setting a pressured moderate pace going a mile at Remington Park. It's very unusual to see a horse show speed in just 1 race, but in every other start flounder towards the back of the pack before unleashing a late rally.
Mid-west based and longtime horseman Donnie Von Hemel, as expected, took the Arkansas route with Sunddenbreakingnews. To illustrate how far back he is positioned after the first 1/2 mile, just look at the number of lengths he lags behind the leader in
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his last 3 starts. In the Southwest he was last of 14 runners, 12 lengths back. In the Rebel he was in 13th place, 10 lengths back and in the Arkansas Derby he raced in 9th position, also 10 lengths back of the pacesetter.
Over a 'good' track in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews rallied in the stretch like he was shot from a cannon to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Then came the Rebel, his only off the board finish. Last time out in the Arkansas Derby, his regular rider Luis Quinonez made the last move, swinging out widest into the stretch. He rallied to get the place money, while set up perfectly by the fast fractions, collapsing speed and a perfectly timed ride.
There is no reason to expect that Suddenbreakingnews will not be positioned towards the back of the pack entering the backstretch in the Kentucky Derby, some 15-20 lengths off the early leaders. He has the benefit of a rider who knows him well, having ridden the 3-year-old in all 8 starts. Like the other deep closers in the field, any success he will have will be directly correlated to the amount of trouble he can avoid. He should get the right pace set up to close into, so the question then becomes if he does have a trouble free trip, is he good enough to win.
Suddenbreakingnews is bred to on both his sire and dam side to have no trouble handling the Derby distance. Even though he has only raced at Oaklawn and at Remington, switching to Churchill should not be an issue. Von Homel has trained over 70 stakes winners in his career with Evansville Slew, Custer, Leave a Legacy, Explosive Girl and Bien Nicole among his notable stars. Even though Suddenbreakingnews has been successful over a dry track, I feel he may be better racing on a wet surface. I would not be shocked if he won the Derby at big odds, especially how good he has been training at Churchill Downs. It is more likely Suddenbreakingnews ceiling is an 'on the board finish' if everything falls just right for horse and rider. This is a huge bomb who must be included in some of your wagers.
6th Selection # 5 GUN RUNNER 10-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S
With the lone exception of a determined fourth place finish in his lone start over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at Churchill last November, Gun Runner is undefeated in 4 starts over a dry surface. He broke his maiden going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in his career debut. The fact that Gun Runner has run well over the track is a feather in his cap.
Trainer Steve Asmussen took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby with Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride was a game winner in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his 3-year old debut off an 84-day layoff. 35 days later Gun Runner scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. In both those races, he was ridden by Florent Geroux, who will be back aboard for the Derby.
I have mixed feeling concerning Gun Runner's ability to win the Kentucky Derby. In his favor is his versatility. In a race which features a lot of deep closer's and several others who will be positioned well off the early leaders entering the backstretch, Gun Runner has shown he can be placed in perfect striking position early on allowing Geroux to get first run on the closer's. His will to win and his experience over the Churchill dirt surface has been documented. Gun Runner is also bred for distance. His dam won 5 of her 6 races going long. What concerns me is the quality of competition he defeated as a 2-year-old and in both starts this year.
The 3-year- olds at Fair Grounds were no better than average. In the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner could not have fallen into a better trip and pace scenario. The fractions he stalked were at best moderate. He easily took command from a very tired pacesetter turning for home and quickly opened up a clear lead. In mid-stretch, Gun Runner drifted towards the rail racing a bit erratically and then switched to his wrong lead. In most instances I would say that he was getting leg weary, which does not bode well on the first Saturday in May when asked to run an additional 1/8th of a mile. You can also look at this erratic behavior another way. This was the first time Gun Runner had opened up such a lengthy lead on his closest pursuer in mid-stretch. He could have just been 'playing around' looking for some competition to challenge him. Gun Runner's margin of victory was 4 1/2 lengths. If rival Mo Tom would not have checked sharply in the midst of his closing rally in mid-stretch, Gun Runner would have probably still won, but it would have been a much closer finish.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won many prestigious Grade 1 races, but the closest he has come to winning the Kentucky Derby was a third place finish with Curlin in 2007. Gun Runner's owner Verne Winchell has had 3 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Go Go was his closest finisher when he ran fourth in 1981. In 1991 his Sea Cadet, known as the 'Tailless Wonder', finished eighth. Winchell's last starter was Valiant Nature who finished thirteenth in 1994. Gun Runner provides both Asmussen and Verne Winchell their best chance to win their first Kentucky Derby.
7th Selection #15 OUTWORK 15-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
Winning a horse race is no easy task, and the degree of difficulty in winning the Kentucky Derby is multiplied many times over. Trainer Todd Pletcher enters 2 runners this year, and one cannot adequately analyze his Derby entrants without examining his overall Derby record. Pletcher has a total of 43 Kentucky Derby runners through 2015. To summarize a Washington Post article penned last year by handicapper Andy Beyer: Pletcher has had but a single winner, Super Saver, from 43 Derby starters. Fully 29 of the 43 have finished 9th or worse. It is near mind boggling that a trainer who owns high percentage stats in nearly every
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category of training horses has been so abysmal in the Derby, given he trains nothing but the best well-bred runners. In truth, Todd Pletcher has had significantly more "at bats" in the Derby than most trainers. Since he usually has the horse flesh, that 1/43 record must come down to both racing luck and method of preparation for this unique race. Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby by two horses, Destin and Outwork. Of particular interest this year, in the context of his overall record, is the different prep path for each of his 44th and 45th Derby starters.
Destin has the more versatile running style as he has shown the ability to stalk, attack and finish. Outwork is a bit more forwardly placed early on. In 4 career starts, the farthest back he has been from the lead is a half-length after a 1/4 mile and a head off the lead after a 1/2 mile. Twice Outwork took command right from the start.
After breaking his maiden going 4 1/2 f in his debut in April 2015, Outwork was laid up until resurfacing Feb 13 at Tampa Bay Downs stretching out to 6f. He easily won his return after fighting off a stiff challenge into the stretch. Outwork's victory set him up nicely to try to rack up some Derby qualifying points in the Tampa Bay Derby. He would face off with Destin, a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher. Outwork set the pace right from the start with his stable-mate in close pursuit. These 2 would battle tooth and nail down the stretch with Destin prevailing by a length at the wire. Unlike Destin, who has trained up to the Kentucky Derby as a result of earning enough points to safely insure a start, Outwork would have to travel to New York for the Wood Memorial, needing at least a second place finish to get him into the field.
In the Wood, Outwork would be confronted by a wet track for the first time and pick up 7 Lbs. traveling 1 1/8 miles. Jockey John Velazquez, who had been aboard Outwork for all three previous starts, was back on. Velazquez wasted no time hustling the son of Uncle Mo to put pressure on the pacesetter Matt King Coal. He raced just a head back of that rival until edging clear at the top of the stretch. Outwork was able to fend off the closers late, in particular the maiden and 81-1 shot Trojan Nation, who was gaining on him in the final yards, just running out of ground to finish a head short of a monumental upset. Considering the track conditions, a new distance and racing right on on top of a fast pace, Outwork gutted out a very impressive victory, proving he is more than worthy of starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.
My main concern for Outwork is his running style. He has not yet shown that he can rate a few lengths behind a pacesetter, attack and finish. It must be assumed that his best game is racing on the lead or sitting right off of it. With the fleet footed Danzig Candy expected to establish the front end early with a good break from the gate, Velazquez has no choice but to take up a tracking position. If he uses him early not to allow Danzig Candy a free ride on the lead, both runners will be cooked at the top of the stretch. If Velazquez takes back, he will have to make a middle move, something that Outwork has never done before.
Outwork has been training beautifully since arriving at Churchill Downs. As far as size goes, he is the biggest 3-year-old in the field. There is no doubt in my mind that Outwork will handle the Derby distance just fine. If Velazquez can get him to relax early, Outwork will get first run on many of his rivals, which could prove to be a huge tactical advantage. Despite Pletcher's abysmal record in the Kentucky Derby, Outwork must be respected as win candidate for high profile owner Mike Repole.
8th Selection #11 EXAGGERATOR 8-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J
Exaggerator is one of more experienced and accomplished horses in the field. All four wins have come at four different race tracks and at four different distances. As a 2-year-old, his first two victories came in sprints last summer. The first was his maiden win at Del Mar. Exaggerator then shipped east and won a Grade 2 stake at Saratoga. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a stakes victory at Delta Downs, earning him 60 % or $600,000 of the $1-million-dollar purse.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to take the Santa Anita route to the Kentucky Derby, mapping out a three race campaign to have Exaggerator in peak form the first Saturday in May. He returned from an eighty six day layoff in the San Vincente at 7f. Showing speed from the start, Exaggerator chased quick fractions outside of Nyquist, but was unable to make up any ground on that rival through the stretch, finishing a very determined second. 26 days later in the San Felipe, stretching back out to two turns, Exaggerator was forced out at the start, quickly finding himself last of six runners. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, riding for his brother, made a huge middle move into second with dead aim on pacesetter and eventual winner Danzig Candy midway on the far turn. Exaggerator fought hard through the stretch to cut into the pacesetter's lead, but came up short and had to settle for third.
With two sharp races off the layoff under his belt, Exaggerator was primed for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. It rarely rains in southern California in the spring and for the most part, dry weather can be an everyday occurrence for weeks on end. When the track comes up sloppy, it creates havoc in predicting the outcome of races, because most of the horses rarely run on sloppy tracks nor do they train over it. There was an unsettling weather pattern in southern California the week leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. That Saturday, the track was a quagmire throughout the 12 race card. The lukewarm favorite was Mor Spirit, who had run second in the his only start over a wet track at Churchill. 26-1 Uncle Lino who ran third, had one race in the slop at 5f, where he was beaten a neck. The 8-5 second choice in the betting Danzig Candy, had never run on wet track. Only one horse in the field, Exaggerator had a win and a second place finish on wet tracks, both in graded stakes. The rest of the field had no wet track experience.
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Once the gate opened for the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy, who was a bit fractious loading, ran off to a big lead into the first turn. Jockey Mike Smith was unable to throttle him down, resulting in a blistering pace which would take its toll on Danzing Candy in mid-stretch. The beneficiary of the pace meltdown was Exaggerator. His trainer's original plan was to stay close to the pacesetter early because Desormeaux felt that on wet tracks you are compromised if you have to close from far back. His plans were scrapped when Danzing Candy bottomed out the field early and Kent Desormeaux wisely elected to settle Exaggerator and make one late run. The last move was the winning move, as Exaggerator just inhaled the front runner at the top of the stretch with a perfectly timed rally, and drew off to an easy 6 1/4 length win. He could not have gotten a better pace set up, ride and trip over a wet surface he simply glides over.
Exaggerator's best trait is his versatility. He has proven he can win from on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. In the Kentucky Derby, he figures to be rating in mid pack before making his customary middle move. Unlike in the Santa Anita Derby when everything possible fell his way, this scenario is not likely to occur in a twenty horse field going 1 1/4 miles.
Exaggerator gets his stamina from his sire Curlin, but his dam line is slanted more towards sprint and middle distances. He has faced Nyquist three times and has lost all three. It is difficult for me to envision him turning the tables on that rival at the Derby distance, especially on a fast track. Exaggerator is a horse I will only use underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers.
9th Selection # 3 CREATOR 10-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S
It took Creator six starts before he broke his maiden. It was not for lack of quality or being entered in difficult spots that prevented this well bred son of top sire Tapit from winning.
For starters, Creator has no early speed, which compromises his chances. He falls victim to the pace scenario and having his rider navigate him through traffic, especially in large field sizes which Creator has faced in most of his starts. Even his past performance trouble lines will point this out with such notations as 'wide', 'shuffled back', 'bumped', 'waited' and 'thru traffic'. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 starters, it is likely another trouble line comment will be added to this list.
When Creator finally put it together in one of few races where the only comment from the chart caller was 'wide', he sustained a powerful and very impressive run through the stretch as if shot from a cannon to win by 7 1/4 lengths on February 27 making his first start at Oaklawn Park. In a bold move by newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Creator was entered in the Rebel Stakes. Once again Creator fell back into another zip code early on. He put in his customary late run, finishing third. The only way Creator and his high profile owners WinStar Farm would be represented in the Kentucky Derby with Creator was a victory and at minimum as second place finish 4 weeks later in the Arkansas Derby. Under a picture perfect ride by Oaklawn Park's leading rider Santana, Creator rallied through traffic from the back of the pack to split horses late, springing an 11-1 upset victory and earning him a date with destiny.
Like several others in the Derby field, Creator will find himself many lengths off the early leaders passing the Twin Spires for the first time. And like his fellow one-run deep closers, Creator will put in his customary late rally. Everything must fall into place for him to loom a danger in the latter stages of the race.
Creator is a talented 3-year-old whose human connections must be respected as much as his equine ability. Nevertheless, Creator is not the type of horse I could select on top, because he is would be more a 'wish and a prayer' selection that the seas will part and he will plow on through to victory. It is more likely that Creator stands a much better chance to pick up the pieces in deep stretch and land a sliver of the pie.
10th Selection # 4 MO TOM 20-1 LANERIE C AMOSS T
If there is one horse on Saturday who will have a legion of racing fans rooting for him based on the horrific trips he experienced on the road to the Kentucky Derby, it is Mo Tom.
As a 2-year-old Mo Tom showed steady improvement in all 4 starts, each in Kentucky at 3 different tracks. His last 2 starts in 2015 resulted in a stakes victory at Churchill Downs stretching out to a mile. Mo Tom concluded his juvenile campaign with a third place finish over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at 2 turns under the Twin Spires.
High percentage winning trainer Tom Amoss elected to take the Louisiana road to the Derby at the Fair Grounds with their 3 race series consisting first of the La Comte, which Mo Tom passed with flying colors. Despite hitting the gate at the break, he recovered to sustain a strong closing run to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths.
No one could envision what would occur in Mo Tom's next 2 starts. In the Risen Star, as his jockey Corey Lanerie was making a bold move along the rail in mid-stretch to loom a danger to blow on by the leaders, the hole quickly closed up, forcing Mo Tom to check sharply. He lost all momentum but showed enough fight to recover and make another run in the closing yards. But the door had already closed on his likely victory.
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Mo Tom would seek redemption 5 weeks later in the Louisiana Derby. As you would have expected with anyone who had observed his bad fortune during the stretch run of the Risen Star, the son of Uncle Mo was bet down to the 2-1 favorite. And once again, backers of Mo Tom would have to suffer through a second stretch debacle costing him another possible victory. This time the pain would last even longer. Once again Mo Tom was gathering a full head of steam, picking up horses one-byone from the back of the pack. Nearly at the same spot in mid-stretch as in the Risen Star, Mo Tom and Lanerie were forced to check sharply, only this time his traffic troubles would last for 1/16th of mile. He never even had a chance to fully recover and get himself back into stride to start a second run at the leaders. Mo Tom had to settle for fourth money, with his connections muttering in disgust 'what could have been'.
With the dust having cleared in the ensuing weeks and the connections of Mo Tom forgiving his rider for those 2 troubled trips, they are all hoping for a turn of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby. As one of the many deep closers in the field, it will be up to the Racing Gods to determine the fate of horses like Mo Tom.
If everything falls in place for Mo Tom and Lanerie, it now becomes an issue if he is good enough to win the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. I feel that a victory is probably not in the cards, even if there is not a straw in Mo Tom's path, which is unlikely. He is a one-run closer that is not very athletic and nimble enough to escape trouble very easily as we have observed and has distance limitations beyond 1 1/8 miles. It is my opinion that the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby featured the lesser quality 3 year olds. Mo Tom is not likely to win, but if everything falls his way, he could possibly hit the board.
11th Selection #10 WHITMORE 20-1 ESPINOZA V MOQUETT R
Whitmore is one of 5 horses in the Derby field who has won over the Churchill Downs main track. In his debut last November, the 3-year-old gelding broke slowly and then rushed up to chase fast fractions. He easily took command at the top of the stretch, drawing clear to a 7 1/4 length win at 15-1.
In his first 2 starts as a juvenile, Whitmore did not wear blinkers. Blinkers were added for his third start on Jan 16 cutting back to a sprint. The result was a decisive victory. What is interesting is in his next 3 starts back at 2 turns, Whitmore has not shown any early speed, quickly finding himself far back of the leaders. Was this by design, or simply a lack of interest by Whitmore in the early proceedings?
Since his trainer Ron Moquett is based in the midwest, it was logical that Whitmore's road to the Derby would go through Oaklawn Park. He would rally from far back to get second money in both the Southwest and Rebel, each run at 1 1/16 miles. In the Arkansas Derby, stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile, Whitmore and his rider Irad Ortiz were once again content to lag far off the early leaders after racing in tight between horses and checking soon after the start. The fractions set by the pacesetter were quick, resulting in a well spread out field of 12. Ortiz was able to get Whitmore to relax a couple paths off the rail on the backstretch. Approaching the far turn, Ortiz pushed on the gas and Whitmore responded instantly to begin his customary late run. Turning for home Whitmore was fanned out very wide while full of run. In mid-stretch, he ran out of gas and was unable to keep pace with winner Creator, who blew on by. Nearing the wire, Whitmore could not hold off Suddenbreakingnews, who had made the last move to get the place.
Whitmore clearly has talent, but he also can be his own worst enemy. He has developed traits which usually raise their ugly heads in a 20 horse field he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If you look at his trouble lines to the far right of his Past Performances, you will see notations in all 6 of his starts such as 'Broke slow, veered out in stretch', 'Pinched start', 'Middle moved', 'Steadied', 'Bobbled', 'Nothing left'. Whitmore will need everything to fall his way in the Derby and not a straw in his path when he begins his late run from the back of the pack. Even if this happens, he does not give me the impression of being able to sustain his run at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Whitmore's ceiling is an 'on the board' finish and nothing more.
12th Selection #17 MOR SPIRIT 12-1 STEVENS G BAFFERT B
When you see any horse entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Bob Baffert, it would be folly to dismiss his chances. Since 1996, Baffert Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a mind-boggling 4 times. He won back-to-back Derbies with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. 4 years later Baffert scored with War Emblem. Last year American Pharoah became the first American Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the twelve in history. In contrast to a Derby trainer like Todd Pletcher (1/43 with 29 runners finishing ninth or worse). Even in defeat, Baffert-trained Derby runners have hit the board 5 times. In the last 20 years', Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby entrants have either won or hit the board 9 times or 45 % of the time. Simply amazing.
Mor Spirit will be Bob Baffert's lone runner in this year's Kentucky Derby. In 7 starts, he has won 3 races including 2 stakes and 4 second place finishes. 5 of those races came at his home base at Santa Anita with 1 win at Los Alamitos. The only time he left southern California, Mor Spirit shipped to Kentucky where he ran a very good second in a Grade 2 stake as a 2-yearold at Churchill Downs.
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There is no denying that Mor Spirit has quality and is very consistent. At times he is a bit head strong early in his races, as he demonstrated when second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe. This characteristic was on display even in his workout April 26, when he blasted away under regular rider Gary Stevens to set fast fractions, with his first 3 furlongs run in 33.93 while racing in company. However, even when Mor Spirit has settled nicely in his races, when he begins his rally, he is one-paced. This was illustrated in all 3 of his victories and last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, when he finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Exagerrator over a sloppy track.
The key to his success in the Kentucky Derby will come down to Stevens being able to get him to relax early and time his move perfectly to avoid any trouble along the way. This could be a lot to ask in a 20 horse field stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. If it was any other trainer than Bob Baffert calling the shots, I would consider Mor Spirit as one of several in this field who can hit the board but not win. With Gary Stevens riding, Baffert's tremendous record in the Kentucky Derby and a horse who will get first run on the deep closer's, Mor Spirit has to be respected.
13th Selection # 9 DESTIN 15-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby with two lightly raced and well-bred colts who both appear on the improve. Destin and Outwork faced off against one another on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Destin prevailed over his barn-mate by one length. His determined victory would serve as his final Derby prep. Destin has been trained up to the Derby off a 56-day layoff after having run 4 straight races about a month apart. The break was well deserved, especially for a 3year-old who has made forward moves in his last 3 starts with the addition of blinkers.
Destin is a grey son of the very good distance producing sire Giant's Causeway, out of a dam who won 4 route races totaling $847,000 in earnings, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. He is a full brother to $1-million-dollar earner Creative Cause, winner of 4 distance races, including the Norfolk and Best Pal as a 2-year-old and the San Felipe as a 3-year old. Creative Cause also placed in the Santa Anita Derby, skipped the Kentucky Derby and then went on to run third in the Preakness. Despite having not run further than 1 1/16 miles, Destin clearly has the pedigree to perform well at 1 1/4 miles. He has very good tactical speed to position himself in good striking position entering the backstretch, which minimizes the chances of his rider navigating through traffic and get first run on the deep closers. The danger is if the pace is quick and he is too close to it. The ability to get Destin to relax the first mile is imperative, so he has enough punch in the stretch.
Several of his rivals exit final prep races in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. All five races were run at 1 1/8 miles. Only the Florida Derby was run 36 days out from the Kentucky Derby. The other four were 28 days out. Destin must overcome his longer layoff and the added distance over a new racing surface toting more weight than he has ever carried before. In Destin's favor is that the route to the Kentucky Derby through Tampa Bay Downs has been fruitful in recent years. Todd Pletcher has started a lot of horses in the 'Run for the Roses'. Super Saver is Pletcher's only Kentucky Derby winner, who had his final prep race in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing third. Street Sense parlayed a win in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man ran third at huge odds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby. The reason for such success is that the racing surface at Tampa is deep and tiring, which provides horses plenty of 'bottom' and stamina when they ship to other tracks which are harder and quicker racing surfaces. Trainers and owners love to race there during the winter months, not for the paltry purses they offer, but for their next stop, where Tampa shippers more than make up for lost income.
This year's Kentucky Derby has more contenders than pretenders. Several Derby starters do their best running from far off the pace, which requires a perfectly timed ride and a traffic free trip to have any chance of winning. Destin is clearly on the contender side of the ledger. His tactical speed and top rider Javier Castellano aboard, will help Destin get first run on the closers and a better chance to avoid trouble. Despite the positives, there comes some negatives, such as his layoff and Todd Pletcher's dismal record with his Kentucky Derby starters.
14th Selection #18 MAJESTO 30-1 JARAMILLO E DELGADO G
This $300,000 yearling purchase was cut out to be a quality runner and bred to relish a distance of ground the day he was conceived. He is a half-brother to Overanalyze, winner of the 2012 Remsen as a 2-year-old and the Arkansas Derby at 3.
It took 5 starts for Majesto to finally break his maiden, but that confidence boost victory helped propel him to a career best performance in the Florida Derby. Even though Majesto was no threat to Nyquist, he sustained a strong rally to get the place money at 21-1. He did benefit by getting a beautiful ground saving trip by top rider Castellano, while racing on the best part of the track.
Majesto loses Castellano in the Derby and it's unlikely he will get the same dream inside trip. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss his chances to nibble at a piece of the purse at huge odds. Majesto has yet to reach his ceiling and clearly the 'light bulb' went off in his maiden win. He is a not a dead stone closer as many in the field are, yet he won't race close to the early leaders entering the backstretch. Majesto is the type of horse who can just clunk along when others are tiring. You know he will handle the Derby distance well. If you watched his gallop out past the wire in the Florida Derby, you could see that there was plenty left in the tank.
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15th Selection #20 DANZING CANDY 15-1 SMITH M SISE, JR. C
If you want to predict who the pacesetter will be in this year's Kentucky Derby, you need to look no further than Danzing Candy. With the exception of his debut last November at Del Mar when he broke awkwardly, quickly finding himself last of twelve runners and seventh after the first call, in 4 subsequent starts Danzing Candy has not been headed after the first quarter mile. In each race, the distances got longer, which only made it easier for Danzing Candy to open up bigger margins between himself and the rest of the field after a half mile had been run. In 3 of those races, including the San Felipe, Danzing Candy would go wire-to-wire.
His toughest test to date came last time out in the Santa Anita Derby where his stamina would be tested for the first time at 1 1/8 miles, as well as his ability to handle a sloppy track, conditions he had neither raced on nor in all likelihood trained over.
Danzing Candy's fate in the Santa Anita Derby was sealed after running four furlongs in a blistering :45 1/5. Mike Smith was not able to control his runaway speed with six furlongs in 1:10 flat. At that point Exaggerator just swooped on by a very tired horse. Smith did not abuse Danzing Candy as he steadily dropped back through the stretch.
Danzing Candy will not have to run over sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby which is a good thing. The bad news is that he will probably have to go faster than par for the first 6 furlongs of the race, which has been run in 1:11 (2003-2015). He will likely face intense pressure on the far turn, resulting in his inability to withstand the onslaught of horses closing from behind. Danzing Candy does not have the breeding, nor does he give me the impression that he is suited to 1 1/4 miles the first Saturday in May.
16th Selection #16 SHAGAF 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C
Shagaf makes his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby after being soundly defeated April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Wood would be the fourth straight time that he would be sent off as the post time favorite following 3 impressive victories, twice in New York and his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park.
It was not surprising that Shagaf's connections would begin his career going a mile. From all this year's Kentucky Derby entrants, Shagaf is one the best bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam Muhaaware is a half-sister to Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles. The previous year, Eldaafer won the Brooklyn BC Handicap at the same distance at Belmont Park. There are several other long-winded and quality performers throughout the family. Ironically, Eldaafar's sire was A. P. Indy, the same sire as Shagaf's father Benardini, both who won prestigious Grade 1 stakes going a distance of ground.
Shagaf could not have been more impressive winning his first start by 6 lengths. He shipped to Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut at the same 2-turn mile. Similar to his debut win, Shagaf stalked early and drew clear at the top of the stretch, on his way to a decisive victory. Trainer Chad Brown shipped him back north for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and stretched Shagaf out to 2-turns for the first time on the inner dirt track. He had to work harder to get the win, but did so with a perfect ride and trip.
His final Derby prep would come 35 days later in the Wood Memorial. Shagaf would be facing some new shooters, but more importantly a sealed sloppy track for the first time while stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile and picking up 7 Lbs. After racing up close to the leaders in the early stages of each of his prior 3 starts, Shagaf and jockey Irad Ortiz, who had ridden him each time, found themselves towards the rear of the field, 11 lengths back into the clubhouse turn. Shagaf made up ground to loom dangerously for a brief moment at the top of the stretch, but flattened out when it counted.
One might say that the muddy surface, which he clearly did not like, compromised his chances. But Shagaf is bred well to handle wet tracks and he got quick fractions to close into. I feel that the Wood Memorial probably exposed him as a 3-year-old who does not yet possess the quality of several others in the Kentucky Derby field. Top rider Irad Ortiz probably feels the same way. Ortiz has elected to jump off Shagaf in favor of another Chad Brown entrant My Man Sam in the Kentucky Derby, who he had ridden in his first 3 starts. Ortiz chose instead to ride Shagaf in the Wood, rather than My Man Same the same day at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. This is a jockey switch, which means something. Joel Rosario, who had been sidelined because of an injury and but resumed riding 1 week ago, will have the mount aboard Shagaf in the Derby.
Expect Shagaf to return to stalking tactics with a clean break. Rosario will go after front running Danzig Candy on the far turn, but will have to work hard to try to go by. This middle move is likely to take its toll on Shagaf in the stretch.
17th Selection # 1 TROJAN NATION 50-1 GRYDER A GALLAGHER P
Obviously the connections of this 3-year-old son of Street Cry knew something more than I did and everyone else looking over his past performances when he arrived at Aqueduct from Santa Anita for the Wood Memorial. If I am grasping at straws, you could say that his bullet 5f workout, the best of 59, just 6 days before the Wood, was a tip off to them that a huge form reversal was upcoming. He had never worked that fast in the past. Even so, there was absolutely no way you could consider Trojan Nation a contender, even in an 8 horse field. He was winless in 5 starts and had never even run second. In 3 races Trojan Nation had run third, finishing 1 3/4, 3 3/4 and 9 lengths back of the winner, all in Maiden Special Weight races.
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Would anyone who owned a horse with his resume go to the expense of flying him across country? I really doubt it, but trainer Patrick Gallagher and Trojan Nation's owners had the courage to do it. For their confidence in this colt, they fell a head short of one of the greatest upsets 'on the road to the Kentucky Derby'. One more jump and Trojan Nation would have lit up the board to the tune of 81-1 or a mutual payoff of $165.00 for every $2.00 wagered. Even though he did not win, Trojan Nation earned enough qualifying points to earn a spot in the Derby field.
How could this monumental turnaround in fortunes occur? 3 factors obviously came into play and each are intertwined. This was the first time Trojan Nation had raced over a wet track listed as 'muddy'. He obviously handled the footing very well. He was allowed to drop back into another zip code by his New York based rider Aaron Gryder. As a result of the fast pace, Trojan Nation settled in last place, 17 lengths back of the leaders while taken to the rail to save valuable ground. With the ensuing speed duel developing around the far turn, and horses making middle moves forcing some to suffer wide trips, Gryder was content to let each horse do the dirty work and just ride the fence hoping to pick off tired horses in the stretch. The tactics nearly worked out, but unfortunately the last horse standing was the winner Outwork, who amazingly held on as well as he did setting a pressured fast pace from start to finish of the 1 1/8-mile race. Trojan Nation even experienced some trouble when in tight and brushed inside the 1/8th pole.
Going forward into the Kentucky Derby, what can we expect from Trojan Nation back on a dry surface? A wet track can truly be an equalizer as some horses handle the going fine and others clearly prefer dry footing. It is very difficult for me to endorse a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. Like many others in the Derby, Trojan Nation is a deep closer who will need all the breaks to fall his way. I'm still not convinced, off a single huge effort, that Trojan Nation has developed into a horse who is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, or even hitting the board.
18th Selection # 8 LANI 30-1 TAKE Y MATSUNAGA M
It is difficult to properly assess the quality of competition Lani faced and defeated in Japan and last time out when he was victorious in the U A E Derby at Meydon on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Equally difficult and just as important are the effects of all the frequent flyer miles he has accumulated traveling from Japan to Dubai and then to the US in less than 2 months.
Lani is a monster of a colt in terms of size, so I am presuming the travel is not an issue. The 3-year-old grey is one of the bestbred runners in the field. Lani was sired by Tapit, the top stallion in the US, out of a dam who won $3.5 million. He is a halfbrother to Amour Biller, winner of $1.5 million in Japan and victor of 5 stakes races, all going a distance of ground.
Lani concluded his juvenile campaign with 2 straight wins in Japan for top Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who I would favorably compare to Chad Brown in the US. Both are young horsemen on the brink of stardom. Even in those 2 victories, as well as in each of his 3 prior starts, Lani showed a lack of interest early, as if he was just enjoying goofing around a bit until set down by his rider. Once again in the U A E Derby, Lani broke awkwardly and took his time to settle into his stride which on camera is not very fluid, but powerful, hitting the ground very hard. He quickly made a huge brush to go from last to second while racing well out on the track. In the stretch, Lani dropped back a bit as if beaten, but he found another gear, grinding down the leaders and out finishing the betting favorite Polar River in the shadow of the wire.
Bad habits raise their ugly head in a twenty horse Kentucky Derby field amidst the massive Churchill Downs crowd. Lani has raced in field sizes up to 16 horses twice, so that is not the concern. The issues are his lethargic behavior in the early part of his races and the traffic he is likely to encounter when he does make his move. Even though Lani's rider Take has experience in the US, the Derby is a whole different ball game. I have watched Lani move over the Churchill dirt surface in morning works and long distance gallops since arriving and do not like what I am seeing. Lani pounds the ground too hard and he just doesn't seem very comfortable over it. There are too many obstacles Lani must overcome for me to consider him a contender.
19th Selection # 7 OSCAR NOMINATED 50-1 LEPAROUX J MAKER M
Owner Ken Ramsey, who has helped carry the torch for enthusiasm and sportsmanship in the current climate of the game, struck some gold when he claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 last October at Belmont. Ramsey could not pass up a grass bred distance horse sired by his very own mainstay and prolific sire Kitten's Joy, who was an outstanding race horse in his own right, but has been the anchor for his breeding business and a yearly annuity.
Once Oscar Nominated was dropped in for the tag, Ramsey did not hesitate to lay down the cash. His astute purchase is reaping him huge dividends. If the colt can pull off a monster upset victory in the Kentucky Derby, Oscar Nominated would go down as the greatest claim since Stymie, who was purchased for $1500 by the legendary trainer Hirsch Jacobs in 1943. Stymie went on to win 35 races for Jacob's, including 20 stakes victories, many graded and nearly $1 million in earnings.
In 4 starts for Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, Oscar Nominated has run second twice, beaten a head and a neck, and then won his last 2 races, capped off by the neck victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on April 2. The obstacle that Oscar
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Nominated will have to overcome, and it cannot be minimized in any way, is that in 7 starts, 6 have been run on turf and last time out over Polytrack.
5 years ago Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with a similar profile. He had never run on dirt prior to the Derby. That year, I ended up making Animal Kingdom my top selection when he upset the field at 25-1 in a very similar wide open affair. There is a significant difference this year. I had discovered through reliable sources, and later confirmed, that Animal Kingdom had worked very well on dirt training in preparation for his career debut. Even though he had run several races before making his first start on dirt, the fact that he handled it very well and hardly anyone knew it, was the main reason I decided to take a chance selecting him. In the case of Oscar Nominated, he has worked over dirt several times. If you go back to his workouts in February and March in the Past Performances, you can even see 4 listed workouts on dirt at the Fair Grounds. They are respectable, but they also don't provide you any strong indicators that dirt will be a surface he will feel at home over. This has also been confirmed in his works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.
Oscar Nominated is clearly improving and his versatile running style is his greatest asset. But the field he will be facing Saturday is a far different animal to the much weaker competition he has been meeting on his upward trajectory. Add in the surface switch to dirt for the first time and what you have is a horse that is difficult to consider a Kentucky Derby winner or for that matter hitting the board. Were he to win, Oscar Nominated, would not only win a piece of racing's version of Hollywood's Oscar, but possibly position himself right for a spot next to Stymie in Racing's Hall of Fame on Union Avenue directly across the street from Saratoga Race Course.
20th Selection #12 TOM'S READY 30-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B STEWART D
Tom's Ready is one of the most experienced horses in the Kentucky Derby field with 9 starts. Only Fellowship has run more races with 11 and Exaggerator next in line with the same 9 career outings. He will be huge odds in the Derby and deservedly so.
Tom's Ready lone victory was his maiden win at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. It was the only time he raced on the lead from the start going wire-to-wire setting a moderate pace while adding blinkers for the first time. He has started 6 times since then, with 4 second place finishes.
Trainer Dallas Stewart took the Louisiana route to the Derby with Tom's Ready with starts in the Le Comte, Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In 2 of those stakes, he rallied for second, but was no threat to Mo Tom and Gun Runner, 2 rivals he will be facing again Saturday. Tom's Ready has a multitude of trouble lines in his Past Performances, which does not bode well for him in a 20 horse field. It is highly unlikely to imagine that Tom's Ready's first win going 2 turns will come in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles. To think he will even hit the board is a stretch.
Wagering Strategy * Win & Place bet on (6) MY MAN SAM * Exacta box (2) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (6) MY MAN SAM, (13) NYQUIST, (14) MOHAYMEN & (19) BRODY'S CALL = $40 for a $2 wager * Exacta box 6-13-14-19 = $24 for a $2 wager * Trifecta 6-13-14-19 over 2-6-13-14-19 over 2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-13-14-15-17-18-19-20 = $104 for a $0.50 wager
Pace Scenario With DANZING CANDY breaking from post 20, Mike Smith should have no trouble getting to the front with an alert break. He is simply quicker early than any other horse in the Derby field. The horses breaking from posts 1-2-3-4, TROJAN NATION, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and MO TOM have no early speed and figure to drop well back of the leaders early on. GUN RUNNER, DESTIN, NYQUIST, MOHAYMEN, OUTWORK, TOM'S READY, SHAGAF , EXAGGERATOR and MOR SPIRIT will spread out behind the pacesetter, some taking up the chase, but all within the top 10 positions entering the backstretch. MY MAN SAM, OSCAR NOMINATED, LANI, WHITMORE, MAJESTO and BRODY'S CALL are the others who are expected to do their running from the back of the pack.
The fractions set by DANZING CANDY will be honest with several horses making middle moves, which will result in the pace heating up around the far turn. I cannot recall a Kentucky Derby in recent memory that has so many deep closers who look very similar on paper and ability. A good trip or a bad one will spell the difference in the outcome of many of these runners. Obviously NYQUIST has the best credentials, but if he does not get the distance and the right set up as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, you can expect big prices and generous payoffs if he does not win.
M/L Jockey Trainer 1st Selection # 6 MY MAN SAM 20-1 ORTIZ, JR. I BROWN C
Along with Outwork and Shagaf, My Man Sam is the third horse in the Kentucky Derby field that has the least racing experience with just 4 starts. His inexperience should not be held against this steadily improving 3-year-old conditioned by top horseman Chad Brown.
Draw a line through his debut when a troubled fifth sprinting on the Aqueduct inner dirt track in December. 6 furlongs is far too short for him. It was evident My Man Sam wanted distance when he exploded to an 8 length maiden win stretching out to 2 turns for the first time in his 3-year-old debut. On March 6, My Man Sam was bet down to the 7-5 favorite, despite facing stakes winner Matt King Coal, who was the lone front runner in the field, but who was also returning from a layoff. As expected Matt King Coal took command right from the start and held on gamely, with My Man Sam cutting into his lead with every stride. Time had run out for him to overhaul the front runner on a track which played kind to speed.
My Man Sam had shown enough ability to search for the right Grade 1 stake to try to accumulate enough points to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than keeping him in New York for the Wood Memorial where Chad Brown had the favorite with Shagaf, Brown shipped his charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes. Little did the connections know until entries were drawn that a full field of 14 horses would break from the gate, with My Man Sam drawing post 14.
When I handicapped the race, there was really no hesitation on my part to make him my top selection, even knowing that his post was going to be very difficult for him to overcome. If My Man Sam had shown an affinity to race on or near the lead or even rate in mid pack, the outside draw would have certainly resulted in a very wide trip and certain defeat. The fact that he is a deep closer, gave jockey Julian Leparoux no choice but to take My Man Sam back to the rear of the field and ease his way to the inside. From that vantage point, racing a dozen lengths off the leaders, he could bide his time as the race developed in front of him and then ask My Man Sam to begin his rally on the far turn. This colt prefers to race outside of horses, so the danger from falling so far back and having to pass 13 horses, was likely to force Leparoux to take the overland route. My Man Sam, under a full head of stream, was fanned out towards the middle of the track turning for home. He had to find another gear once straightened out for the stretch run. Once he did, My Man Sam was picking up horses one-by-one. In the end, he had too much ground to make up and too little time to run down winner Brody's Cause who got the jump on him. In the end, it was post 14 that was the main culprit for his defeat. The fact that My Man Sam could even run second with so much ground loss, proved to everyone watching his performance that he was more than worthy of consideration as one of the major contenders in the Run for the Roses.
The question going forward is can My Man Sam continue to improve making only his fifth career start after having run nearly once a month since December. That is quite a bit of racing over a relatively short period of time. Like many others in the field, My Man Sam has no early speed and will drop well back off the early leaders into the clubhouse turn. He is not quite as slow in the early going as several others in the Derby field who I would label deep stone cold closers. I can see at least 5 other horses who could be lagging farther behind him.
My Man Sam is more a grinder than a horse with cat-like acceleration. My concern is that he will have to sustain too long a run, which could take the punch out of him in the late stages of the race. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz will be back aboard. Ortiz is one of racing's bright young jockeys, who has a keen sense of timing. Ortiz will have to utilize every ounce of his talent to time his move just perfectly and avoid trouble in the midst of his late run. It is certain that Chad Brown will have My Man Sam as good as hands can make him. If everything falls just in place and the stars are aligned for his connections on Saturday, My Man Sam can win the Kentucky Derby at a generous price.
My Man Sam drew post 6 which is ideal for him, unlike post 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like many others in this field, he will have to work out a trip, but I have complete faith in Irad Ortiz Jr. that he will get My Man Sam to settle and avoid trouble and too
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wide a trip. I picked My Man Sam to win the Blue Grass without Irad aboard. Now one of my favorite riders is back in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning-line, My Man Sam now becomes my top pick. Since I can see either of my top 4 selections winning, this year's Kentucky Derby becomes a 'price play' for the Wizard. At those generous odds which I expect My Man Sam to be, I'll take my shot for a generous payoff and hold my breath for a trouble free journey.
2nd Selection #19 BRODY'S CAUSE 12-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D
The son of Giant's Causeway is the only horse entered in the Derby field who can say he is 'Kentucky's' hometown boy. There are many in the field who have been bred in the 'Blue Grass' state. Not only was Brody's Cause born here, but his trainer Dale Roman has been a fixture on the Churchill Downs backstretch since taking out his trainer's license in 1984. Born in Louisville and a son of a former trainer, Roman's saddled his first winner at Turfway Park in Florence Kentucky three year later. Romans has saddled many Grade 1 stakes winners since, including three Breeders' cup victories, winning the 2005 Dubai World Cup with Roses In May and the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford. Other notable horses trained by Roman's are Kitten's Joy, Paddy's O'Prado, Little Mike and who could forget Keen Ice who he predicted would upset American Pharoah in last year's Travers Stakes at 16-1 odds and he did just that. The highlight of Dale Roman's career came in 2012 when he was the recipient of the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer. But all these accomplishments would pale in comparison to winning the one race which has eluded him, the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Romans has started six horses in the Derby. The closest he has come are a pair of third place finishes with Paddy O'Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012. This year Dale Romans, along with successful owner Albaugh Family Stable (owner of Paddy O'Prado) arrive at the big dance with Brody's Cause, who completes the Kentucky connection.
Brody's Cause began his career on turf at Ellis Park located in Henderson Kentucky. He was defeated by 25 lengths that day and has never seen the grass again... except for eating it. Brody's Cause made a huge turnaround when placed on dirt for the first time 41 days later at a 1 turn mile at Churchill Downs to upset a strong maiden field at 33-1. He proved that win was no fluke by stepping up sharply in class into the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October to score again, this time at 11-1. In both races, Brody's Cause picked off rivals one by one from the back of the pack.
Brody's Cause had earned the chance to conclude his 2-year-old campaign with a victory and Eclipse Award as the top 2-yearold in the country in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Churchill Down leading rider Corey Lanerie, who had been aboard for the first time in the Breeders' Futurity victory, was once again content to let Brody's Cause lag far off the early leaders. He made up ground at every call to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. If the race had been run at 1 1/8 miles, a 1/16th of a mile longer, Brody's Cause would probably have won. Dale Roman's and anyone who observed Brody's Call strong finish, knew that Roman's had a quality 2-year-old, soon to be 3, on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Brody's Cause first race back from his Breeders Cup loss would be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He would be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff and racing outside of Kentucky for the first time. Bet down to the favorite at 2-1 for the first time in his career, Brody's Cause was bumped soon after the start. He took up his usual position at the back of the pack. At the half mile pole, he was 12 lengths back of the leader. He never picked up a hoof, finishing 12 lengths back at the wire, beating only 2 horses, in what was beyond a disappointing performance. What had possibly gone wrong for Brody's Cause to finish a well beaten seventh?
Whether it was not handling the quirky Tampa Bay surface, Florida heat and humidity, the lengthy layoff or simply an 'off day', no one knew for certain. Even Romans and his longtime companion Tammy Fox, a former jockey and for several years Romans main exercise rider and integral part of his successful stable, had no answers to Brody's Cause not showing up that afternoon at Tampa.
It was time to put that race behind them and seek redemption four weeks later back in the friendly confines of the state of Kentucky at Keeneland race-course. Brody's Cause would have to show big improvement and at the very least hit the board, to provide his connections with the confidence he was worthy of a start in the Kentucky Derby. They only had to wait 1:50 1/5 seconds to have their answer. Brody's Cause was back to himself with a decisive 1 3/4 length victory against 13 rivals. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, Brody's Cause rallied from far back to split horses in mid-stretch and win with plenty left in the tank. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the first time, asked Brody's Call to begin making his move midway on the far turn. Knifing his way between horses and then easing outside and splitting rivals again in mid-stretch to take the lead, Saez still had enough left to fend off the late run of My Man Sam and Cherry Wine. Brody's Call's victory, which was a huge rebound from his Tampa debacle, should not be underestimated. What's so impressive is that he could sustain such a long rally, while navigating his way through traffic, and still prevail.
Brody's Call enters the Kentucky Derby with renewed confidence and must be considered a major player. Dale Romans is a master at pointing a horse to a major race and winning at generous odds. Brody's Cause will have to take another step forward to win the Derby, but what I expect to see on Saturday is a career best performance stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. However, like many others in this field who are deep closer's, it will come down to a trouble free trip and a well-timed ride. If both happen, Brody's Cause is on a short list of those likeliest to succeed closing from far back.
When posts were drawn, Brody's Call drew 19. With the pacesetter breaking in post 20, it comes down to what type of trip jockey Luis Saez can work out. He will have to take back as was expected, but now Saez must try not to lose too much ground as he
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attempts to move closer inside to avoid a very wide journey. If Brody's Call had drawn a better post, he would have been my top selection. The most difficult thing for me in races like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, when I like a horse that I planned on putting on top who does not get any number of post positions which I was looking for, is having to call a late audible. In this case, I must call the audible.
3rd Selection #13 NYQUIST 3-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D
Nyquist brings an unblemished record, 7 starts with 7 wins and $3.2 million in earnings, into the Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite. He has won at 5 different distances at 4 different races tracks. Nyquist has won on the lead, stalking up close and even closing from well back of the leaders, as he did in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, after being bumped hard at the start. That victory resulted in his fifth straight victory, earning him an Eclipse Award and the role as the future book favorite for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Can history repeat itself for the trio of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez? All three orchestrated the 15-1 upset victory by I'll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Unlike I'll Have Another, whose final Derby prep came in the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist shipped across country to contest the Florida Derby as his final tune up. The decision was based on the $1-million-dollar bonus his owner would receive as a result of being sold at a 2-year-old sale in Florida.
Nyquist would face off with Mohaymen, who was also undefeated in 5 starts. Mohaymen held a big 'home court' edge. He had spent the winter in south Florida and had 2 stakes wins to his credit at Gulfstream Park as a 3-year-old. Mohaymen had also proven himself at the Florida Derby distance, winning the Remson at Aqueduct in his final start at 2. For these reasons, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5 with Nyquist at 6-5. The odds of the other 8 runners ranged from the third choice going off at 15-1 to the longest price in the field at 180-1. This unusual betting variance in the Florida Derby tells an interesting tale. The obvious is that handicappers and the betting public clearly felt it was a 2 horse race, which it clearly looked like on paper. What the odds also told you was that the opposition was simply overmatched on all handicapping principles. Some were considered so outclassed, that you wondered if they could even win an entry-level Allowance race. One horse was still a maiden. 6 others had only a maiden win to their credit. Fellowship, who was making his 11th start, had won 2 races, a win in his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs and a win around 2-turns last October. To put it mildly, other than Mohaymen and Nyquist, this was one bad Florida Derby field!
As soon as the gate opened for the Florida Derby, you knew right away that Gutierrez was going to be aggressive and ride Nyquist like he was the best horse in the race. The tactics were simple, 'catch me if you can'. It was no free pass for Nyquist on the front end, except that the 2 horses who put pressure on him were the 124-1 maiden and a 136-1 recent maiden claiming winner for a $50,000 tag. Fighting those 2 rivals off to await the challenge of Mohaymen would set the stage for a stretch battle which never materialized. Sometimes there are outcomes which are simply 'head scratchers'. We all knew where Nyquist was positioned turning for home. Now our sights were set squarely on Mohaymen to await his attack. Just as quickly as he began to make his move while racing wide turning for home, it only took a few more strides to realize that Mohaymen would come up empty. He flattened out to finish a well beaten fourth, an inexplicable 8 1/4 lengths back of the Nyquist. Nyquist showed up to the dance. Mohaymen declined the invitation when it was time to respond.
What did the outcome of the Florida Derby tell us? It told us Nyquist is a very good horse and even a deserving favorite, who will be over bet because of his credentials. He defeated an awful field in a race where something had to be amiss with the favorite to have run so poorly. The main track had plenty of moisture and was labeled 'good' from the rains which fell on and off throughout the day. The track had been sealed and then the seal was removed for the Florida Derby after 3 previous stakes races which were run on grass. From the last dirt race run at 4:34 PM, to the start of the Florida Derby which went off at 6:57 PM, a span of 2 hours and 23 minutes, a lot changed with the dirt surface, which had a hand in the final outcome. It was a quirky track that that some horses handled and others did not.
When I look closely at Nyquist's lifetime past performances, I see a horse who faced a west coast based horse named Swipe in 4 of his 5 starts as a 2-year-old. Swipe ran second each time. Swipe returned in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in his 3year-old debut April 16 as the co-favorite and was awful. Nyquist was impressive winning the BC Juvenile, but he did have a relatively trouble free trip. In the San Vincente, which was his first start at 3, he beat a quality horse in Exaggerator as the 1-5 favorite breaking from the rail against only 4 rivals.
For all Nyquist's conquests and the fact that he is battled hardened and the will to win, I still cannot pick him as my top selection. Many people will point out that his pedigree is not suited to 1 1/4 miles. I put little credence in that statement because he does have enough stamina influence on his dam side, and speed and middle distance from his sire Uncle Mo. The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race in that 20 horses will all be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their career and may never see that distance again. Nyquist is a very good horse and in the end could develop into a great horse. Nevertheless, as the clear cut betting favorite and a horse who certainly has all the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby, I have enough reasons not to choose him as my top selection. He will be included in many of my exacta and trifecta wagers.
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Nyquist draws a very good post in 13, but as the morning-line favorite at 3-1, I cannot pick him to win. It's as simple as that for me.
4th Selection #14 MOHAYMEN 10-1 ALVARADO J MCLAUGHLIN K
Mohaymen took his unblemished record of 5 wins in 5 starts into the Florida Derby. 3 of those victories came as a 2-year-old, including a win in the Remsen at Aqueduct to conclude his juvenile campaign. With Mohaymen on the sidelines, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist was voted 2-year-old horse of the year. A legitimate argument could be made over which horse was the best juvenile colt. If you believed that Mohaymen was the better of the two, the debate would be settled at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby where these two undefeated 3-year-olds would face off in what looked on paper to be a 2 horse race.
In the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5, with Nyquist at 6-5. The rest of the field was 15-1 and higher. What was billed as a "match race" ended up nothing of the sort. Nyquist proved much the best with a decisive win. Mohaymen could not have been any more disappointing, finishing a well beaten fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The result of the Florida Derby will now have a huge impact on the odds on these two runners when they meet up for part two of their encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If Mohaymen had won the Florida Derby, he would no doubt be the 'clear cut' betting favorite in the Run for the Roses at around 7-2. Nyquist would be in the vicinity of 8-1. A switch in roles and closing odds between these two now changes, with favorite Nyquist going off in the vicinity of 4-1.
Handicappers and the betting public have short memories. Many times too much emphasis is placed on a winning or losing effort. In Mohaymen's case losing by such a lengthy margin and even being out finished by two long shots, who on paper had no right at all to finish in front of him, makes you have to come up with some very sound reasons to draw a line threw his race. After thinking about it long and hard, I am doing just that.
First and foremost, Mohaymen ran well enough in his 5 previous starts to distinguish himself as a top class 3-year-old, especially when compared to many on the Derby trail who are nothing more than good horses with much to prove. In the Florida Derby Mohaymen was asked to run over a very 'quirky' wet track for the first time in his career. He never seemed comfortable over the footing. Mohaymen raced wide throughout on the part of the track which appeared more tiring than the inside paths. He was unable to get any traction to sustain a move he began making approaching the stretch, but then flattened out from the 3/16th pole to the wire. It was also a hot and humid day with a big crowd. Perhaps something was amiss that would only be discovered after he was walked back to the barn and cooled out.
Finding legitimate excuses to discount a race is only one piece of the puzzle. The main piece is what has developed in the days following the race as a horse like Mohaymen prepares for his date with destiny. You look for clues like insightful comments by the connections and, most importantly, how the horse trains leading up to the race. When Mohaymen ran in the Florida Derby, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was in a rare bad slump. One week earlier, he had fired blanks with all his starters at Meydan, in the Dubai World Cup races. His prized runner, Frosted, from whom he expected big things, came up totally empty. We all have our bad runs and good runs. It's a fact of life and racing is no exception. McLaughlin is a super horseman and time heals all ills. He has been at Churchill supervising the training of Mohaymen since he arrived in mid-April. He wants no stone unturned in his preparation. You want to see your Derby horse work well over the surface. Mohaymen has done just that, working brilliantly under the Twin Spires. McLaughlin has been 'fine tuning' a little bit with the shoeing, adding glue on shoes which seems to improve a lot of horses.
I expect a vastly improved performance by Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby. He is bred on both his sire and dam side to adapt well to 1 1/4 miles. His best asset is his tactical speed, which will allow jockey 'Junior' Alvarado to settle him in perfect striking position early on and get first run on both the mid pack runners and the deep closer's. Mohaymen has been the favorite in all 6 starts at odds as low as 2-5, but never higher than 9-5, which was in his career debut. In the Kentucky Derby you will be generously rewarded at a price you would never dream of getting before the Florida Derby and possibly never again if Mohaymen redeems himself on Saturday.
Mohaymen drew post 14 which is ideal for his stalking running style. 'Junior' Alvarado should be able to work out a good trip without much ground loss. Now it's up to Mohaymen to show that his last race was an aberration and he is up to the task winning at 1 1/4 miles.
5th Selection # 2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1 QUINONEZ L VON HEMEL D
This 3-year-old gelding is a mirror image of several deep closers in this year's Kentucky Derby field. Like those horses, Suddenbreakingnews has been a gem of consistency, winning 3 races, twice in stakes and placed 4 times in 8 career starts. His lone off the board finish was when he ran 5th as the 5-2 favorite breaking from post 14. Only once has he shown any early speed and that was in his maiden win setting a pressured moderate pace going a mile at Remington Park. It's very unusual to see a horse show speed in just 1 race, but in every other start flounder towards the back of the pack before unleashing a late rally.
Mid-west based and longtime horseman Donnie Von Hemel, as expected, took the Arkansas route with Sunddenbreakingnews. To illustrate how far back he is positioned after the first 1/2 mile, just look at the number of lengths he lags behind the leader in
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his last 3 starts. In the Southwest he was last of 14 runners, 12 lengths back. In the Rebel he was in 13th place, 10 lengths back and in the Arkansas Derby he raced in 9th position, also 10 lengths back of the pacesetter.
Over a 'good' track in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews rallied in the stretch like he was shot from a cannon to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Then came the Rebel, his only off the board finish. Last time out in the Arkansas Derby, his regular rider Luis Quinonez made the last move, swinging out widest into the stretch. He rallied to get the place money, while set up perfectly by the fast fractions, collapsing speed and a perfectly timed ride.
There is no reason to expect that Suddenbreakingnews will not be positioned towards the back of the pack entering the backstretch in the Kentucky Derby, some 15-20 lengths off the early leaders. He has the benefit of a rider who knows him well, having ridden the 3-year-old in all 8 starts. Like the other deep closers in the field, any success he will have will be directly correlated to the amount of trouble he can avoid. He should get the right pace set up to close into, so the question then becomes if he does have a trouble free trip, is he good enough to win.
Suddenbreakingnews is bred to on both his sire and dam side to have no trouble handling the Derby distance. Even though he has only raced at Oaklawn and at Remington, switching to Churchill should not be an issue. Von Homel has trained over 70 stakes winners in his career with Evansville Slew, Custer, Leave a Legacy, Explosive Girl and Bien Nicole among his notable stars. Even though Suddenbreakingnews has been successful over a dry track, I feel he may be better racing on a wet surface. I would not be shocked if he won the Derby at big odds, especially how good he has been training at Churchill Downs. It is more likely Suddenbreakingnews ceiling is an 'on the board finish' if everything falls just right for horse and rider. This is a huge bomb who must be included in some of your wagers.
6th Selection # 5 GUN RUNNER 10-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S
With the lone exception of a determined fourth place finish in his lone start over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at Churchill last November, Gun Runner is undefeated in 4 starts over a dry surface. He broke his maiden going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in his career debut. The fact that Gun Runner has run well over the track is a feather in his cap.
Trainer Steve Asmussen took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby with Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride was a game winner in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his 3-year old debut off an 84-day layoff. 35 days later Gun Runner scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. In both those races, he was ridden by Florent Geroux, who will be back aboard for the Derby.
I have mixed feeling concerning Gun Runner's ability to win the Kentucky Derby. In his favor is his versatility. In a race which features a lot of deep closer's and several others who will be positioned well off the early leaders entering the backstretch, Gun Runner has shown he can be placed in perfect striking position early on allowing Geroux to get first run on the closer's. His will to win and his experience over the Churchill dirt surface has been documented. Gun Runner is also bred for distance. His dam won 5 of her 6 races going long. What concerns me is the quality of competition he defeated as a 2-year-old and in both starts this year.
The 3-year- olds at Fair Grounds were no better than average. In the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner could not have fallen into a better trip and pace scenario. The fractions he stalked were at best moderate. He easily took command from a very tired pacesetter turning for home and quickly opened up a clear lead. In mid-stretch, Gun Runner drifted towards the rail racing a bit erratically and then switched to his wrong lead. In most instances I would say that he was getting leg weary, which does not bode well on the first Saturday in May when asked to run an additional 1/8th of a mile. You can also look at this erratic behavior another way. This was the first time Gun Runner had opened up such a lengthy lead on his closest pursuer in mid-stretch. He could have just been 'playing around' looking for some competition to challenge him. Gun Runner's margin of victory was 4 1/2 lengths. If rival Mo Tom would not have checked sharply in the midst of his closing rally in mid-stretch, Gun Runner would have probably still won, but it would have been a much closer finish.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won many prestigious Grade 1 races, but the closest he has come to winning the Kentucky Derby was a third place finish with Curlin in 2007. Gun Runner's owner Verne Winchell has had 3 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Go Go was his closest finisher when he ran fourth in 1981. In 1991 his Sea Cadet, known as the 'Tailless Wonder', finished eighth. Winchell's last starter was Valiant Nature who finished thirteenth in 1994. Gun Runner provides both Asmussen and Verne Winchell their best chance to win their first Kentucky Derby.
7th Selection #15 OUTWORK 15-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
Winning a horse race is no easy task, and the degree of difficulty in winning the Kentucky Derby is multiplied many times over. Trainer Todd Pletcher enters 2 runners this year, and one cannot adequately analyze his Derby entrants without examining his overall Derby record. Pletcher has a total of 43 Kentucky Derby runners through 2015. To summarize a Washington Post article penned last year by handicapper Andy Beyer: Pletcher has had but a single winner, Super Saver, from 43 Derby starters. Fully 29 of the 43 have finished 9th or worse. It is near mind boggling that a trainer who owns high percentage stats in nearly every
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category of training horses has been so abysmal in the Derby, given he trains nothing but the best well-bred runners. In truth, Todd Pletcher has had significantly more "at bats" in the Derby than most trainers. Since he usually has the horse flesh, that 1/43 record must come down to both racing luck and method of preparation for this unique race. Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby by two horses, Destin and Outwork. Of particular interest this year, in the context of his overall record, is the different prep path for each of his 44th and 45th Derby starters.
Destin has the more versatile running style as he has shown the ability to stalk, attack and finish. Outwork is a bit more forwardly placed early on. In 4 career starts, the farthest back he has been from the lead is a half-length after a 1/4 mile and a head off the lead after a 1/2 mile. Twice Outwork took command right from the start.
After breaking his maiden going 4 1/2 f in his debut in April 2015, Outwork was laid up until resurfacing Feb 13 at Tampa Bay Downs stretching out to 6f. He easily won his return after fighting off a stiff challenge into the stretch. Outwork's victory set him up nicely to try to rack up some Derby qualifying points in the Tampa Bay Derby. He would face off with Destin, a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher. Outwork set the pace right from the start with his stable-mate in close pursuit. These 2 would battle tooth and nail down the stretch with Destin prevailing by a length at the wire. Unlike Destin, who has trained up to the Kentucky Derby as a result of earning enough points to safely insure a start, Outwork would have to travel to New York for the Wood Memorial, needing at least a second place finish to get him into the field.
In the Wood, Outwork would be confronted by a wet track for the first time and pick up 7 Lbs. traveling 1 1/8 miles. Jockey John Velazquez, who had been aboard Outwork for all three previous starts, was back on. Velazquez wasted no time hustling the son of Uncle Mo to put pressure on the pacesetter Matt King Coal. He raced just a head back of that rival until edging clear at the top of the stretch. Outwork was able to fend off the closers late, in particular the maiden and 81-1 shot Trojan Nation, who was gaining on him in the final yards, just running out of ground to finish a head short of a monumental upset. Considering the track conditions, a new distance and racing right on on top of a fast pace, Outwork gutted out a very impressive victory, proving he is more than worthy of starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.
My main concern for Outwork is his running style. He has not yet shown that he can rate a few lengths behind a pacesetter, attack and finish. It must be assumed that his best game is racing on the lead or sitting right off of it. With the fleet footed Danzig Candy expected to establish the front end early with a good break from the gate, Velazquez has no choice but to take up a tracking position. If he uses him early not to allow Danzig Candy a free ride on the lead, both runners will be cooked at the top of the stretch. If Velazquez takes back, he will have to make a middle move, something that Outwork has never done before.
Outwork has been training beautifully since arriving at Churchill Downs. As far as size goes, he is the biggest 3-year-old in the field. There is no doubt in my mind that Outwork will handle the Derby distance just fine. If Velazquez can get him to relax early, Outwork will get first run on many of his rivals, which could prove to be a huge tactical advantage. Despite Pletcher's abysmal record in the Kentucky Derby, Outwork must be respected as win candidate for high profile owner Mike Repole.
8th Selection #11 EXAGGERATOR 8-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J
Exaggerator is one of more experienced and accomplished horses in the field. All four wins have come at four different race tracks and at four different distances. As a 2-year-old, his first two victories came in sprints last summer. The first was his maiden win at Del Mar. Exaggerator then shipped east and won a Grade 2 stake at Saratoga. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a stakes victory at Delta Downs, earning him 60 % or $600,000 of the $1-million-dollar purse.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to take the Santa Anita route to the Kentucky Derby, mapping out a three race campaign to have Exaggerator in peak form the first Saturday in May. He returned from an eighty six day layoff in the San Vincente at 7f. Showing speed from the start, Exaggerator chased quick fractions outside of Nyquist, but was unable to make up any ground on that rival through the stretch, finishing a very determined second. 26 days later in the San Felipe, stretching back out to two turns, Exaggerator was forced out at the start, quickly finding himself last of six runners. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, riding for his brother, made a huge middle move into second with dead aim on pacesetter and eventual winner Danzig Candy midway on the far turn. Exaggerator fought hard through the stretch to cut into the pacesetter's lead, but came up short and had to settle for third.
With two sharp races off the layoff under his belt, Exaggerator was primed for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. It rarely rains in southern California in the spring and for the most part, dry weather can be an everyday occurrence for weeks on end. When the track comes up sloppy, it creates havoc in predicting the outcome of races, because most of the horses rarely run on sloppy tracks nor do they train over it. There was an unsettling weather pattern in southern California the week leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. That Saturday, the track was a quagmire throughout the 12 race card. The lukewarm favorite was Mor Spirit, who had run second in the his only start over a wet track at Churchill. 26-1 Uncle Lino who ran third, had one race in the slop at 5f, where he was beaten a neck. The 8-5 second choice in the betting Danzig Candy, had never run on wet track. Only one horse in the field, Exaggerator had a win and a second place finish on wet tracks, both in graded stakes. The rest of the field had no wet track experience.
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Once the gate opened for the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy, who was a bit fractious loading, ran off to a big lead into the first turn. Jockey Mike Smith was unable to throttle him down, resulting in a blistering pace which would take its toll on Danzing Candy in mid-stretch. The beneficiary of the pace meltdown was Exaggerator. His trainer's original plan was to stay close to the pacesetter early because Desormeaux felt that on wet tracks you are compromised if you have to close from far back. His plans were scrapped when Danzing Candy bottomed out the field early and Kent Desormeaux wisely elected to settle Exaggerator and make one late run. The last move was the winning move, as Exaggerator just inhaled the front runner at the top of the stretch with a perfectly timed rally, and drew off to an easy 6 1/4 length win. He could not have gotten a better pace set up, ride and trip over a wet surface he simply glides over.
Exaggerator's best trait is his versatility. He has proven he can win from on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. In the Kentucky Derby, he figures to be rating in mid pack before making his customary middle move. Unlike in the Santa Anita Derby when everything possible fell his way, this scenario is not likely to occur in a twenty horse field going 1 1/4 miles.
Exaggerator gets his stamina from his sire Curlin, but his dam line is slanted more towards sprint and middle distances. He has faced Nyquist three times and has lost all three. It is difficult for me to envision him turning the tables on that rival at the Derby distance, especially on a fast track. Exaggerator is a horse I will only use underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers.
9th Selection # 3 CREATOR 10-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S
It took Creator six starts before he broke his maiden. It was not for lack of quality or being entered in difficult spots that prevented this well bred son of top sire Tapit from winning.
For starters, Creator has no early speed, which compromises his chances. He falls victim to the pace scenario and having his rider navigate him through traffic, especially in large field sizes which Creator has faced in most of his starts. Even his past performance trouble lines will point this out with such notations as 'wide', 'shuffled back', 'bumped', 'waited' and 'thru traffic'. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 starters, it is likely another trouble line comment will be added to this list.
When Creator finally put it together in one of few races where the only comment from the chart caller was 'wide', he sustained a powerful and very impressive run through the stretch as if shot from a cannon to win by 7 1/4 lengths on February 27 making his first start at Oaklawn Park. In a bold move by newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Creator was entered in the Rebel Stakes. Once again Creator fell back into another zip code early on. He put in his customary late run, finishing third. The only way Creator and his high profile owners WinStar Farm would be represented in the Kentucky Derby with Creator was a victory and at minimum as second place finish 4 weeks later in the Arkansas Derby. Under a picture perfect ride by Oaklawn Park's leading rider Santana, Creator rallied through traffic from the back of the pack to split horses late, springing an 11-1 upset victory and earning him a date with destiny.
Like several others in the Derby field, Creator will find himself many lengths off the early leaders passing the Twin Spires for the first time. And like his fellow one-run deep closers, Creator will put in his customary late rally. Everything must fall into place for him to loom a danger in the latter stages of the race.
Creator is a talented 3-year-old whose human connections must be respected as much as his equine ability. Nevertheless, Creator is not the type of horse I could select on top, because he is would be more a 'wish and a prayer' selection that the seas will part and he will plow on through to victory. It is more likely that Creator stands a much better chance to pick up the pieces in deep stretch and land a sliver of the pie.
10th Selection # 4 MO TOM 20-1 LANERIE C AMOSS T
If there is one horse on Saturday who will have a legion of racing fans rooting for him based on the horrific trips he experienced on the road to the Kentucky Derby, it is Mo Tom.
As a 2-year-old Mo Tom showed steady improvement in all 4 starts, each in Kentucky at 3 different tracks. His last 2 starts in 2015 resulted in a stakes victory at Churchill Downs stretching out to a mile. Mo Tom concluded his juvenile campaign with a third place finish over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at 2 turns under the Twin Spires.
High percentage winning trainer Tom Amoss elected to take the Louisiana road to the Derby at the Fair Grounds with their 3 race series consisting first of the La Comte, which Mo Tom passed with flying colors. Despite hitting the gate at the break, he recovered to sustain a strong closing run to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths.
No one could envision what would occur in Mo Tom's next 2 starts. In the Risen Star, as his jockey Corey Lanerie was making a bold move along the rail in mid-stretch to loom a danger to blow on by the leaders, the hole quickly closed up, forcing Mo Tom to check sharply. He lost all momentum but showed enough fight to recover and make another run in the closing yards. But the door had already closed on his likely victory.
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Mo Tom would seek redemption 5 weeks later in the Louisiana Derby. As you would have expected with anyone who had observed his bad fortune during the stretch run of the Risen Star, the son of Uncle Mo was bet down to the 2-1 favorite. And once again, backers of Mo Tom would have to suffer through a second stretch debacle costing him another possible victory. This time the pain would last even longer. Once again Mo Tom was gathering a full head of steam, picking up horses one-byone from the back of the pack. Nearly at the same spot in mid-stretch as in the Risen Star, Mo Tom and Lanerie were forced to check sharply, only this time his traffic troubles would last for 1/16th of mile. He never even had a chance to fully recover and get himself back into stride to start a second run at the leaders. Mo Tom had to settle for fourth money, with his connections muttering in disgust 'what could have been'.
With the dust having cleared in the ensuing weeks and the connections of Mo Tom forgiving his rider for those 2 troubled trips, they are all hoping for a turn of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby. As one of the many deep closers in the field, it will be up to the Racing Gods to determine the fate of horses like Mo Tom.
If everything falls in place for Mo Tom and Lanerie, it now becomes an issue if he is good enough to win the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. I feel that a victory is probably not in the cards, even if there is not a straw in Mo Tom's path, which is unlikely. He is a one-run closer that is not very athletic and nimble enough to escape trouble very easily as we have observed and has distance limitations beyond 1 1/8 miles. It is my opinion that the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby featured the lesser quality 3 year olds. Mo Tom is not likely to win, but if everything falls his way, he could possibly hit the board.
11th Selection #10 WHITMORE 20-1 ESPINOZA V MOQUETT R
Whitmore is one of 5 horses in the Derby field who has won over the Churchill Downs main track. In his debut last November, the 3-year-old gelding broke slowly and then rushed up to chase fast fractions. He easily took command at the top of the stretch, drawing clear to a 7 1/4 length win at 15-1.
In his first 2 starts as a juvenile, Whitmore did not wear blinkers. Blinkers were added for his third start on Jan 16 cutting back to a sprint. The result was a decisive victory. What is interesting is in his next 3 starts back at 2 turns, Whitmore has not shown any early speed, quickly finding himself far back of the leaders. Was this by design, or simply a lack of interest by Whitmore in the early proceedings?
Since his trainer Ron Moquett is based in the midwest, it was logical that Whitmore's road to the Derby would go through Oaklawn Park. He would rally from far back to get second money in both the Southwest and Rebel, each run at 1 1/16 miles. In the Arkansas Derby, stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile, Whitmore and his rider Irad Ortiz were once again content to lag far off the early leaders after racing in tight between horses and checking soon after the start. The fractions set by the pacesetter were quick, resulting in a well spread out field of 12. Ortiz was able to get Whitmore to relax a couple paths off the rail on the backstretch. Approaching the far turn, Ortiz pushed on the gas and Whitmore responded instantly to begin his customary late run. Turning for home Whitmore was fanned out very wide while full of run. In mid-stretch, he ran out of gas and was unable to keep pace with winner Creator, who blew on by. Nearing the wire, Whitmore could not hold off Suddenbreakingnews, who had made the last move to get the place.
Whitmore clearly has talent, but he also can be his own worst enemy. He has developed traits which usually raise their ugly heads in a 20 horse field he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If you look at his trouble lines to the far right of his Past Performances, you will see notations in all 6 of his starts such as 'Broke slow, veered out in stretch', 'Pinched start', 'Middle moved', 'Steadied', 'Bobbled', 'Nothing left'. Whitmore will need everything to fall his way in the Derby and not a straw in his path when he begins his late run from the back of the pack. Even if this happens, he does not give me the impression of being able to sustain his run at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Whitmore's ceiling is an 'on the board' finish and nothing more.
12th Selection #17 MOR SPIRIT 12-1 STEVENS G BAFFERT B
When you see any horse entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Bob Baffert, it would be folly to dismiss his chances. Since 1996, Baffert Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a mind-boggling 4 times. He won back-to-back Derbies with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. 4 years later Baffert scored with War Emblem. Last year American Pharoah became the first American Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the twelve in history. In contrast to a Derby trainer like Todd Pletcher (1/43 with 29 runners finishing ninth or worse). Even in defeat, Baffert-trained Derby runners have hit the board 5 times. In the last 20 years', Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby entrants have either won or hit the board 9 times or 45 % of the time. Simply amazing.
Mor Spirit will be Bob Baffert's lone runner in this year's Kentucky Derby. In 7 starts, he has won 3 races including 2 stakes and 4 second place finishes. 5 of those races came at his home base at Santa Anita with 1 win at Los Alamitos. The only time he left southern California, Mor Spirit shipped to Kentucky where he ran a very good second in a Grade 2 stake as a 2-yearold at Churchill Downs.
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There is no denying that Mor Spirit has quality and is very consistent. At times he is a bit head strong early in his races, as he demonstrated when second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe. This characteristic was on display even in his workout April 26, when he blasted away under regular rider Gary Stevens to set fast fractions, with his first 3 furlongs run in 33.93 while racing in company. However, even when Mor Spirit has settled nicely in his races, when he begins his rally, he is one-paced. This was illustrated in all 3 of his victories and last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, when he finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Exagerrator over a sloppy track.
The key to his success in the Kentucky Derby will come down to Stevens being able to get him to relax early and time his move perfectly to avoid any trouble along the way. This could be a lot to ask in a 20 horse field stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. If it was any other trainer than Bob Baffert calling the shots, I would consider Mor Spirit as one of several in this field who can hit the board but not win. With Gary Stevens riding, Baffert's tremendous record in the Kentucky Derby and a horse who will get first run on the deep closer's, Mor Spirit has to be respected.
13th Selection # 9 DESTIN 15-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby with two lightly raced and well-bred colts who both appear on the improve. Destin and Outwork faced off against one another on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Destin prevailed over his barn-mate by one length. His determined victory would serve as his final Derby prep. Destin has been trained up to the Derby off a 56-day layoff after having run 4 straight races about a month apart. The break was well deserved, especially for a 3year-old who has made forward moves in his last 3 starts with the addition of blinkers.
Destin is a grey son of the very good distance producing sire Giant's Causeway, out of a dam who won 4 route races totaling $847,000 in earnings, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. He is a full brother to $1-million-dollar earner Creative Cause, winner of 4 distance races, including the Norfolk and Best Pal as a 2-year-old and the San Felipe as a 3-year old. Creative Cause also placed in the Santa Anita Derby, skipped the Kentucky Derby and then went on to run third in the Preakness. Despite having not run further than 1 1/16 miles, Destin clearly has the pedigree to perform well at 1 1/4 miles. He has very good tactical speed to position himself in good striking position entering the backstretch, which minimizes the chances of his rider navigating through traffic and get first run on the deep closers. The danger is if the pace is quick and he is too close to it. The ability to get Destin to relax the first mile is imperative, so he has enough punch in the stretch.
Several of his rivals exit final prep races in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. All five races were run at 1 1/8 miles. Only the Florida Derby was run 36 days out from the Kentucky Derby. The other four were 28 days out. Destin must overcome his longer layoff and the added distance over a new racing surface toting more weight than he has ever carried before. In Destin's favor is that the route to the Kentucky Derby through Tampa Bay Downs has been fruitful in recent years. Todd Pletcher has started a lot of horses in the 'Run for the Roses'. Super Saver is Pletcher's only Kentucky Derby winner, who had his final prep race in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing third. Street Sense parlayed a win in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man ran third at huge odds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby. The reason for such success is that the racing surface at Tampa is deep and tiring, which provides horses plenty of 'bottom' and stamina when they ship to other tracks which are harder and quicker racing surfaces. Trainers and owners love to race there during the winter months, not for the paltry purses they offer, but for their next stop, where Tampa shippers more than make up for lost income.
This year's Kentucky Derby has more contenders than pretenders. Several Derby starters do their best running from far off the pace, which requires a perfectly timed ride and a traffic free trip to have any chance of winning. Destin is clearly on the contender side of the ledger. His tactical speed and top rider Javier Castellano aboard, will help Destin get first run on the closers and a better chance to avoid trouble. Despite the positives, there comes some negatives, such as his layoff and Todd Pletcher's dismal record with his Kentucky Derby starters.
14th Selection #18 MAJESTO 30-1 JARAMILLO E DELGADO G
This $300,000 yearling purchase was cut out to be a quality runner and bred to relish a distance of ground the day he was conceived. He is a half-brother to Overanalyze, winner of the 2012 Remsen as a 2-year-old and the Arkansas Derby at 3.
It took 5 starts for Majesto to finally break his maiden, but that confidence boost victory helped propel him to a career best performance in the Florida Derby. Even though Majesto was no threat to Nyquist, he sustained a strong rally to get the place money at 21-1. He did benefit by getting a beautiful ground saving trip by top rider Castellano, while racing on the best part of the track.
Majesto loses Castellano in the Derby and it's unlikely he will get the same dream inside trip. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss his chances to nibble at a piece of the purse at huge odds. Majesto has yet to reach his ceiling and clearly the 'light bulb' went off in his maiden win. He is a not a dead stone closer as many in the field are, yet he won't race close to the early leaders entering the backstretch. Majesto is the type of horse who can just clunk along when others are tiring. You know he will handle the Derby distance well. If you watched his gallop out past the wire in the Florida Derby, you could see that there was plenty left in the tank.
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15th Selection #20 DANZING CANDY 15-1 SMITH M SISE, JR. C
If you want to predict who the pacesetter will be in this year's Kentucky Derby, you need to look no further than Danzing Candy. With the exception of his debut last November at Del Mar when he broke awkwardly, quickly finding himself last of twelve runners and seventh after the first call, in 4 subsequent starts Danzing Candy has not been headed after the first quarter mile. In each race, the distances got longer, which only made it easier for Danzing Candy to open up bigger margins between himself and the rest of the field after a half mile had been run. In 3 of those races, including the San Felipe, Danzing Candy would go wire-to-wire.
His toughest test to date came last time out in the Santa Anita Derby where his stamina would be tested for the first time at 1 1/8 miles, as well as his ability to handle a sloppy track, conditions he had neither raced on nor in all likelihood trained over.
Danzing Candy's fate in the Santa Anita Derby was sealed after running four furlongs in a blistering :45 1/5. Mike Smith was not able to control his runaway speed with six furlongs in 1:10 flat. At that point Exaggerator just swooped on by a very tired horse. Smith did not abuse Danzing Candy as he steadily dropped back through the stretch.
Danzing Candy will not have to run over sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby which is a good thing. The bad news is that he will probably have to go faster than par for the first 6 furlongs of the race, which has been run in 1:11 (2003-2015). He will likely face intense pressure on the far turn, resulting in his inability to withstand the onslaught of horses closing from behind. Danzing Candy does not have the breeding, nor does he give me the impression that he is suited to 1 1/4 miles the first Saturday in May.
16th Selection #16 SHAGAF 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C
Shagaf makes his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby after being soundly defeated April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Wood would be the fourth straight time that he would be sent off as the post time favorite following 3 impressive victories, twice in New York and his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park.
It was not surprising that Shagaf's connections would begin his career going a mile. From all this year's Kentucky Derby entrants, Shagaf is one the best bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam Muhaaware is a half-sister to Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles. The previous year, Eldaafer won the Brooklyn BC Handicap at the same distance at Belmont Park. There are several other long-winded and quality performers throughout the family. Ironically, Eldaafar's sire was A. P. Indy, the same sire as Shagaf's father Benardini, both who won prestigious Grade 1 stakes going a distance of ground.
Shagaf could not have been more impressive winning his first start by 6 lengths. He shipped to Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut at the same 2-turn mile. Similar to his debut win, Shagaf stalked early and drew clear at the top of the stretch, on his way to a decisive victory. Trainer Chad Brown shipped him back north for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and stretched Shagaf out to 2-turns for the first time on the inner dirt track. He had to work harder to get the win, but did so with a perfect ride and trip.
His final Derby prep would come 35 days later in the Wood Memorial. Shagaf would be facing some new shooters, but more importantly a sealed sloppy track for the first time while stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile and picking up 7 Lbs. After racing up close to the leaders in the early stages of each of his prior 3 starts, Shagaf and jockey Irad Ortiz, who had ridden him each time, found themselves towards the rear of the field, 11 lengths back into the clubhouse turn. Shagaf made up ground to loom dangerously for a brief moment at the top of the stretch, but flattened out when it counted.
One might say that the muddy surface, which he clearly did not like, compromised his chances. But Shagaf is bred well to handle wet tracks and he got quick fractions to close into. I feel that the Wood Memorial probably exposed him as a 3-year-old who does not yet possess the quality of several others in the Kentucky Derby field. Top rider Irad Ortiz probably feels the same way. Ortiz has elected to jump off Shagaf in favor of another Chad Brown entrant My Man Sam in the Kentucky Derby, who he had ridden in his first 3 starts. Ortiz chose instead to ride Shagaf in the Wood, rather than My Man Same the same day at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. This is a jockey switch, which means something. Joel Rosario, who had been sidelined because of an injury and but resumed riding 1 week ago, will have the mount aboard Shagaf in the Derby.
Expect Shagaf to return to stalking tactics with a clean break. Rosario will go after front running Danzig Candy on the far turn, but will have to work hard to try to go by. This middle move is likely to take its toll on Shagaf in the stretch.
17th Selection # 1 TROJAN NATION 50-1 GRYDER A GALLAGHER P
Obviously the connections of this 3-year-old son of Street Cry knew something more than I did and everyone else looking over his past performances when he arrived at Aqueduct from Santa Anita for the Wood Memorial. If I am grasping at straws, you could say that his bullet 5f workout, the best of 59, just 6 days before the Wood, was a tip off to them that a huge form reversal was upcoming. He had never worked that fast in the past. Even so, there was absolutely no way you could consider Trojan Nation a contender, even in an 8 horse field. He was winless in 5 starts and had never even run second. In 3 races Trojan Nation had run third, finishing 1 3/4, 3 3/4 and 9 lengths back of the winner, all in Maiden Special Weight races.
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Would anyone who owned a horse with his resume go to the expense of flying him across country? I really doubt it, but trainer Patrick Gallagher and Trojan Nation's owners had the courage to do it. For their confidence in this colt, they fell a head short of one of the greatest upsets 'on the road to the Kentucky Derby'. One more jump and Trojan Nation would have lit up the board to the tune of 81-1 or a mutual payoff of $165.00 for every $2.00 wagered. Even though he did not win, Trojan Nation earned enough qualifying points to earn a spot in the Derby field.
How could this monumental turnaround in fortunes occur? 3 factors obviously came into play and each are intertwined. This was the first time Trojan Nation had raced over a wet track listed as 'muddy'. He obviously handled the footing very well. He was allowed to drop back into another zip code by his New York based rider Aaron Gryder. As a result of the fast pace, Trojan Nation settled in last place, 17 lengths back of the leaders while taken to the rail to save valuable ground. With the ensuing speed duel developing around the far turn, and horses making middle moves forcing some to suffer wide trips, Gryder was content to let each horse do the dirty work and just ride the fence hoping to pick off tired horses in the stretch. The tactics nearly worked out, but unfortunately the last horse standing was the winner Outwork, who amazingly held on as well as he did setting a pressured fast pace from start to finish of the 1 1/8-mile race. Trojan Nation even experienced some trouble when in tight and brushed inside the 1/8th pole.
Going forward into the Kentucky Derby, what can we expect from Trojan Nation back on a dry surface? A wet track can truly be an equalizer as some horses handle the going fine and others clearly prefer dry footing. It is very difficult for me to endorse a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. Like many others in the Derby, Trojan Nation is a deep closer who will need all the breaks to fall his way. I'm still not convinced, off a single huge effort, that Trojan Nation has developed into a horse who is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, or even hitting the board.
18th Selection # 8 LANI 30-1 TAKE Y MATSUNAGA M
It is difficult to properly assess the quality of competition Lani faced and defeated in Japan and last time out when he was victorious in the U A E Derby at Meydon on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Equally difficult and just as important are the effects of all the frequent flyer miles he has accumulated traveling from Japan to Dubai and then to the US in less than 2 months.
Lani is a monster of a colt in terms of size, so I am presuming the travel is not an issue. The 3-year-old grey is one of the bestbred runners in the field. Lani was sired by Tapit, the top stallion in the US, out of a dam who won $3.5 million. He is a halfbrother to Amour Biller, winner of $1.5 million in Japan and victor of 5 stakes races, all going a distance of ground.
Lani concluded his juvenile campaign with 2 straight wins in Japan for top Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who I would favorably compare to Chad Brown in the US. Both are young horsemen on the brink of stardom. Even in those 2 victories, as well as in each of his 3 prior starts, Lani showed a lack of interest early, as if he was just enjoying goofing around a bit until set down by his rider. Once again in the U A E Derby, Lani broke awkwardly and took his time to settle into his stride which on camera is not very fluid, but powerful, hitting the ground very hard. He quickly made a huge brush to go from last to second while racing well out on the track. In the stretch, Lani dropped back a bit as if beaten, but he found another gear, grinding down the leaders and out finishing the betting favorite Polar River in the shadow of the wire.
Bad habits raise their ugly head in a twenty horse Kentucky Derby field amidst the massive Churchill Downs crowd. Lani has raced in field sizes up to 16 horses twice, so that is not the concern. The issues are his lethargic behavior in the early part of his races and the traffic he is likely to encounter when he does make his move. Even though Lani's rider Take has experience in the US, the Derby is a whole different ball game. I have watched Lani move over the Churchill dirt surface in morning works and long distance gallops since arriving and do not like what I am seeing. Lani pounds the ground too hard and he just doesn't seem very comfortable over it. There are too many obstacles Lani must overcome for me to consider him a contender.
19th Selection # 7 OSCAR NOMINATED 50-1 LEPAROUX J MAKER M
Owner Ken Ramsey, who has helped carry the torch for enthusiasm and sportsmanship in the current climate of the game, struck some gold when he claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 last October at Belmont. Ramsey could not pass up a grass bred distance horse sired by his very own mainstay and prolific sire Kitten's Joy, who was an outstanding race horse in his own right, but has been the anchor for his breeding business and a yearly annuity.
Once Oscar Nominated was dropped in for the tag, Ramsey did not hesitate to lay down the cash. His astute purchase is reaping him huge dividends. If the colt can pull off a monster upset victory in the Kentucky Derby, Oscar Nominated would go down as the greatest claim since Stymie, who was purchased for $1500 by the legendary trainer Hirsch Jacobs in 1943. Stymie went on to win 35 races for Jacob's, including 20 stakes victories, many graded and nearly $1 million in earnings.
In 4 starts for Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, Oscar Nominated has run second twice, beaten a head and a neck, and then won his last 2 races, capped off by the neck victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on April 2. The obstacle that Oscar
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Nominated will have to overcome, and it cannot be minimized in any way, is that in 7 starts, 6 have been run on turf and last time out over Polytrack.
5 years ago Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with a similar profile. He had never run on dirt prior to the Derby. That year, I ended up making Animal Kingdom my top selection when he upset the field at 25-1 in a very similar wide open affair. There is a significant difference this year. I had discovered through reliable sources, and later confirmed, that Animal Kingdom had worked very well on dirt training in preparation for his career debut. Even though he had run several races before making his first start on dirt, the fact that he handled it very well and hardly anyone knew it, was the main reason I decided to take a chance selecting him. In the case of Oscar Nominated, he has worked over dirt several times. If you go back to his workouts in February and March in the Past Performances, you can even see 4 listed workouts on dirt at the Fair Grounds. They are respectable, but they also don't provide you any strong indicators that dirt will be a surface he will feel at home over. This has also been confirmed in his works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.
Oscar Nominated is clearly improving and his versatile running style is his greatest asset. But the field he will be facing Saturday is a far different animal to the much weaker competition he has been meeting on his upward trajectory. Add in the surface switch to dirt for the first time and what you have is a horse that is difficult to consider a Kentucky Derby winner or for that matter hitting the board. Were he to win, Oscar Nominated, would not only win a piece of racing's version of Hollywood's Oscar, but possibly position himself right for a spot next to Stymie in Racing's Hall of Fame on Union Avenue directly across the street from Saratoga Race Course.
20th Selection #12 TOM'S READY 30-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B STEWART D
Tom's Ready is one of the most experienced horses in the Kentucky Derby field with 9 starts. Only Fellowship has run more races with 11 and Exaggerator next in line with the same 9 career outings. He will be huge odds in the Derby and deservedly so.
Tom's Ready lone victory was his maiden win at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. It was the only time he raced on the lead from the start going wire-to-wire setting a moderate pace while adding blinkers for the first time. He has started 6 times since then, with 4 second place finishes.
Trainer Dallas Stewart took the Louisiana route to the Derby with Tom's Ready with starts in the Le Comte, Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In 2 of those stakes, he rallied for second, but was no threat to Mo Tom and Gun Runner, 2 rivals he will be facing again Saturday. Tom's Ready has a multitude of trouble lines in his Past Performances, which does not bode well for him in a 20 horse field. It is highly unlikely to imagine that Tom's Ready's first win going 2 turns will come in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles. To think he will even hit the board is a stretch.
Wagering Strategy * Win & Place bet on (6) MY MAN SAM * Exacta box (2) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (6) MY MAN SAM, (13) NYQUIST, (14) MOHAYMEN & (19) BRODY'S CALL = $40 for a $2 wager * Exacta box 6-13-14-19 = $24 for a $2 wager * Trifecta 6-13-14-19 over 2-6-13-14-19 over 2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-13-14-15-17-18-19-20 = $104 for a $0.50 wager
Derby Contenders - Part I
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The first of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from California. And what better way to start our coverage than with the undefeated, juvenile Eclipse champion, Nyquist.
From the same connections that brought you 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another – owner Reddam Racing, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez – Nyquist figures to go to post as the favorite in what figures to be one of the most wide-open runnings of the event in recent history. It’s deserving since he is arguably THE most accomplished runner to ever enter the race.
Easily the highest earning entrant, with over $3.3 million already banked in his seven race career, Nyquist was a perfect five for five in his two-year-old season, closing out the year with three consecutive G1 tallies in the Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner at Santa Anita and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.
O’Neill announced rather early on that Nyquist would have just two preps for the Derby and brought the son of red hot freshman sire Uncle Mo back in mid-February at his Santa Anita headquarters in the G2 San Vicente going seven furlongs. Breaking from the rail against just four others, Gutierrez put Nyquist in the game early, and after briefly battling on the front end, assumed the lead, eventually winning by 1 ½ lengths while stopping the clock in 1:20 3/5.
Gulfstream and the G1 Florida Derby would be his final stop on the road to Louisville as Nyquist would collect a $1 million bonus with a win in South Florida’s premiere Derby prep as a graduate of a Fasig-Tipton sale in Florida. He’d take on the leader in the east, the undefeated Mohaymen, in a historic prep battle. It didn’t live up to the hype.
Aggressive once again, Nyquist was send right to the top and while Mohaymen took a short-lived run at him on the far turn, Nyquist easily vanquished his rival before drifting in and out through the stretch to win by 3 ¼ lengths.
Nyquist was sent straight to Kentucky after the Florida Derby but went to Keeneland as opposed to the home of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs. He had a reported high white blood cell count upon his arrival in Lexington and missed a couple of days of training but worked three times at Keeneland, including a mile in 1:41 on Friday, April 29th, in his final major move.
Having already made nine starts, Exaggerator is one of the most seasoned runners on the Derby Trail. A family affair, as trainer Keith Desormeaux will give his three time Derby winning, Hall of Famer brother, jockey Kent, a leg up. Kent won the 1998 Derby aboard Real Quiet, in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and in 2008 with Big Brown.
As for Exaggerator, the son of 2007/2008 Horse of the Year Curlin has won half of his six juvenile starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot and finished second in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the B.C. Juvenile.
He returned from a near three month break in the San Vicente this season when he chased Nyquist for the final half mile before he tired ever so slightly in the stretch to finish second. Nearly a month later, Exaggerator was bothered a bit at the start of the G2 San Felipe, made a strong move midway through the 1 1/16 mile event then leveled off in the stretch to be third.
In his most recent start, the G1 Santa Anita Derby, the Desormeaux brothers decided they would take Exaggerator back and make one big run as opposed to the middle move he had grown accustomed to making. Already accomplished on a wet track, having won at Delta and finished second at Keeneland in the mud, his connections were more than happy to run over a sloppy track out west in the S.A. Derby.
As was the plan, Kent took Exaggerator back to last, got a blistering :45 1/5 half-mile time to run into and exploded as the field approached the far turn, going from fourth to first in a matter of seconds before making the lead midway on the far turn on his way to an easy 6 ¼ length score. It could have very well been the most impressive and dominant prep effort of the season.
He’s done the bulk of his training leading up to the Derby in California but did record his final work before the race, a five furlong drill in 1:02 3/5, at Churchill on Saturday, April 30th for his conglomerate of owners, led by Big Chief Racing.
While Nyquist is the richest and Exaggerator was the most dominant of late, Mor Spirit sports the most successful connections when it comes to the Run for the Roses as his trainer/jockey combo of Hall of Famers Bob Baffert and Gary Stevens have won seven of these between them. Stevens was victorious aboard the filly Winning Colors in 1988, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Silver Charm, who turned out to be Baffert’s first, in 1997. Along with Silver Charm, Baffert also won it in 1998 with Real Quiet, in 2002 with War Emblem and last year with eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh.
Owned by Michael Petersen, Mor Spirit, by Eskendereya, is one of the more consistent runners in the field, having finished first or second in all seven of his starts. He closed out a four race juvenile campaign with a second place finish in the slop in the G2 KJC at Churchill and a win in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
After a short seven week rest, Mor Spirit returned in the G3 Robert Lewis at the same 1 1/16 mile distance of his prior two starts and put in a similar march from mid-pack to win by 1 ½ lengths as the 3/5 favorite. He put in a similar effort in the G2 San Felipe but was no match for the front running winner.
Last out in the S.A. Derby, Mor Spirit stretched out to nine furlongs and for the first time in a while ran an even race, in my opinion. While the speed was fading and the closers, namely Exaggerator did their running, he didn’t move much until gaining a slight bit of ground nearing the wire to grab the place money.
Mor Spirit worked a quick :59 4/5 on Tuesday, April 26 at Churchill shortly after arriving in Kentucky but is without regular morning rider Martin Garcia who had a dust up with Baffert and won’t be around to assist in his training in the days leading up to the race.
Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith won his lone Derby in 2005 with deep closer Giacomo at over 50-1. If he gets his second this year he’ll do it in the opposite manner with the front running Danzing Candy for owners Jim & Diane Bashor and Halo Farms and trainer Clifford Sise, Jr.
After an off the board finish in his debut while sprinting, Danzing Candy rattled off three straight, including an allowance optional claimer at a mile and a brazen, gate-tow-ire score in the San Felipe.
A son of Twirling Candy, Danzing Candy is bred to handle the off going but never seemed comfortable in the S.A. Derby when he blazed his way through a sharp half-mile in run-off fashion and was all but done by the time they reached the far turn. He trudged home fourth, beaten over 13 lengths.
Sise decided to get Danzing Candy out of the spotlight and shipped him to San Luis Rey Training Center to get ready for the first Saturday in May. He wrapped up his preparations with a five furlong move in :59 4/5 on Saturday, April 30th.
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The first of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from California. And what better way to start our coverage than with the undefeated, juvenile Eclipse champion, Nyquist.
From the same connections that brought you 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another – owner Reddam Racing, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez – Nyquist figures to go to post as the favorite in what figures to be one of the most wide-open runnings of the event in recent history. It’s deserving since he is arguably THE most accomplished runner to ever enter the race.
Easily the highest earning entrant, with over $3.3 million already banked in his seven race career, Nyquist was a perfect five for five in his two-year-old season, closing out the year with three consecutive G1 tallies in the Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner at Santa Anita and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.
O’Neill announced rather early on that Nyquist would have just two preps for the Derby and brought the son of red hot freshman sire Uncle Mo back in mid-February at his Santa Anita headquarters in the G2 San Vicente going seven furlongs. Breaking from the rail against just four others, Gutierrez put Nyquist in the game early, and after briefly battling on the front end, assumed the lead, eventually winning by 1 ½ lengths while stopping the clock in 1:20 3/5.
Gulfstream and the G1 Florida Derby would be his final stop on the road to Louisville as Nyquist would collect a $1 million bonus with a win in South Florida’s premiere Derby prep as a graduate of a Fasig-Tipton sale in Florida. He’d take on the leader in the east, the undefeated Mohaymen, in a historic prep battle. It didn’t live up to the hype.
Aggressive once again, Nyquist was send right to the top and while Mohaymen took a short-lived run at him on the far turn, Nyquist easily vanquished his rival before drifting in and out through the stretch to win by 3 ¼ lengths.
Nyquist was sent straight to Kentucky after the Florida Derby but went to Keeneland as opposed to the home of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs. He had a reported high white blood cell count upon his arrival in Lexington and missed a couple of days of training but worked three times at Keeneland, including a mile in 1:41 on Friday, April 29th, in his final major move.
Having already made nine starts, Exaggerator is one of the most seasoned runners on the Derby Trail. A family affair, as trainer Keith Desormeaux will give his three time Derby winning, Hall of Famer brother, jockey Kent, a leg up. Kent won the 1998 Derby aboard Real Quiet, in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and in 2008 with Big Brown.
As for Exaggerator, the son of 2007/2008 Horse of the Year Curlin has won half of his six juvenile starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot and finished second in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the B.C. Juvenile.
He returned from a near three month break in the San Vicente this season when he chased Nyquist for the final half mile before he tired ever so slightly in the stretch to finish second. Nearly a month later, Exaggerator was bothered a bit at the start of the G2 San Felipe, made a strong move midway through the 1 1/16 mile event then leveled off in the stretch to be third.
In his most recent start, the G1 Santa Anita Derby, the Desormeaux brothers decided they would take Exaggerator back and make one big run as opposed to the middle move he had grown accustomed to making. Already accomplished on a wet track, having won at Delta and finished second at Keeneland in the mud, his connections were more than happy to run over a sloppy track out west in the S.A. Derby.
As was the plan, Kent took Exaggerator back to last, got a blistering :45 1/5 half-mile time to run into and exploded as the field approached the far turn, going from fourth to first in a matter of seconds before making the lead midway on the far turn on his way to an easy 6 ¼ length score. It could have very well been the most impressive and dominant prep effort of the season.
He’s done the bulk of his training leading up to the Derby in California but did record his final work before the race, a five furlong drill in 1:02 3/5, at Churchill on Saturday, April 30th for his conglomerate of owners, led by Big Chief Racing.
While Nyquist is the richest and Exaggerator was the most dominant of late, Mor Spirit sports the most successful connections when it comes to the Run for the Roses as his trainer/jockey combo of Hall of Famers Bob Baffert and Gary Stevens have won seven of these between them. Stevens was victorious aboard the filly Winning Colors in 1988, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Silver Charm, who turned out to be Baffert’s first, in 1997. Along with Silver Charm, Baffert also won it in 1998 with Real Quiet, in 2002 with War Emblem and last year with eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh.
Owned by Michael Petersen, Mor Spirit, by Eskendereya, is one of the more consistent runners in the field, having finished first or second in all seven of his starts. He closed out a four race juvenile campaign with a second place finish in the slop in the G2 KJC at Churchill and a win in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
After a short seven week rest, Mor Spirit returned in the G3 Robert Lewis at the same 1 1/16 mile distance of his prior two starts and put in a similar march from mid-pack to win by 1 ½ lengths as the 3/5 favorite. He put in a similar effort in the G2 San Felipe but was no match for the front running winner.
Last out in the S.A. Derby, Mor Spirit stretched out to nine furlongs and for the first time in a while ran an even race, in my opinion. While the speed was fading and the closers, namely Exaggerator did their running, he didn’t move much until gaining a slight bit of ground nearing the wire to grab the place money.
Mor Spirit worked a quick :59 4/5 on Tuesday, April 26 at Churchill shortly after arriving in Kentucky but is without regular morning rider Martin Garcia who had a dust up with Baffert and won’t be around to assist in his training in the days leading up to the race.
Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith won his lone Derby in 2005 with deep closer Giacomo at over 50-1. If he gets his second this year he’ll do it in the opposite manner with the front running Danzing Candy for owners Jim & Diane Bashor and Halo Farms and trainer Clifford Sise, Jr.
After an off the board finish in his debut while sprinting, Danzing Candy rattled off three straight, including an allowance optional claimer at a mile and a brazen, gate-tow-ire score in the San Felipe.
A son of Twirling Candy, Danzing Candy is bred to handle the off going but never seemed comfortable in the S.A. Derby when he blazed his way through a sharp half-mile in run-off fashion and was all but done by the time they reached the far turn. He trudged home fourth, beaten over 13 lengths.
Sise decided to get Danzing Candy out of the spotlight and shipped him to San Luis Rey Training Center to get ready for the first Saturday in May. He wrapped up his preparations with a five furlong move in :59 4/5 on Saturday, April 30th.
Derby Contenders - Part 2
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The second of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from Kentucky. The Bluegrass State offers up four runners who to the Derby Gods this season and could supply some of the more mysterious, intriguing contenders. With that said, we will start with a two time G1 winner, Brody’s Cause.
Owned by Albaugh Family Stables and trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause has done his best work in horse country, with all three of his victories coming in the state. After a failed debut on the turf, the son of Giant’s Causeway to win a one mile maiden event at Churchill Downs at over 33-1 with a powerful last-to-first move.
Wheeled back three weeks later, Brody’s Cause put in a similar late rally to win the Breeders’ Futurity in the mud at Keeneland before finishing out his juvenile campaign with a strong third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Romans waited over four months to run him for the first time this year and Brody’s Cause surfaced in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Over a notoriously quirky racing surface, he didn’t raise a hoof as the 2-1 favorite after getting bumped slightly at the start and beat just two in the field of nine, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winner.
He returned to the scene of his greatest score for what would be his final prep and was sent off at 4-1 in the Blue Grass. Under new rider Luis Saez for the first time, as regular rider Corey Lanerie stuck with another Romans runner in Cherry Wine, Brody’s Cause raced, as usual, towards the back of the pack as the field went the first half mile in a sharp :46 3/5.
Saez turned Brody’s Cause loose approaching the far turn and picked his way through the field before tipping six wide on the turn and hitting the lead in mid-stretch. He outkicked a couple of similar late rallies, including Cherry Wine’s, who managed to get third, to win by 1 ¾ lengths.
Brody’s Cause has had the luxury of training out of his own stall at Churchill Downs since the Blue Grass win and finished up his serious training with a five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 on Saturday, April 30th.
My Man Sam was the other rallying late in the Blue Grass with the Romans runners and finished up strongly to get the place money in just the fourth start of his career for trainer Chad Brown and an ownership group led by Sheep Pond Partners, who also own the great Lady Eli.
My Man Sam made the first three starts of his career over the inner track at Aqueduct, a surface that has historically favored front runners, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. He followed an off the board debut in a sprint with a breathtaking maiden win by eight lengths, a race in which he was nearly 15 lengths behind with a half mile to go. A second place finish by a length to the highly regarded Mat King Coal, who got loose on the lead that day, was his final start before the Blue Grass.
Under Julien Leparoux, My Man Sam had to overcome outside post 14 and eventually passed all but the winner in the Blue Grass while rallying eight wide to get enough points to qualify for the Derby field.
A son of Trappe Shot, My Man Sam will be reunited with Ortiz, Jr. for the Derby as Brown uses him regularly throughout the year. My Man Sam worked a half at Churchill in :49 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Despite being taken off of My Man Sam, Leparoux will ride the Derby, only he’ll be aboard G3 Spiral winner Oscar Nominated for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who has put up a $200,000 supplemental fee and trainer Mike Maker. By Ramsey’s amazing sire Kitten’s Joy, he’ll be making his first start on conventional dirt in the Derby.
Oscar Nominated started out his career in the barn of Bill Mott and was claimed by Maker in start three, a $75,000 maiden claiming win on the turf at Belmont. After finishing second in an entry level allowance contest on the lawn at Churchill under Leparoux, he was given a couple of months off.
Oscar Nominated returned in a couple of minor turf stakes at the Fair Grounds, finishing second by a neck in January before rallying to get the money in the Black Gold in late February. He made his first non-turf start in the Spiral over the Turfway Park Polytrack surface.
Under a perfectly timed ride by Brian Hernandez, Jr., who’ll pilot Tom’s Ready in the Derby, Oscar Nominated raced in mid-pack before swooping down the center of the course to win a multiple horse photo by a neck at 23-1.
Oscar Nominated has been stabled just down the road from Churchill Downs at their sister Training Center but did ship over to work under the Twin Spires, going five panels in 1:00 4/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Three years ago, Lani was born in Kentucky before being whisked away to Japan, where he has raced for Yoko Maeda and trainer Mikio Matsunaga.
By world-class sire Tapit, Lani debuted on the turf last September at 1 ¼ miles. He managed only a fourth place finish and after finishing second in his dirt debut finally broke his maiden at third asking going about nine furlongs off of a seven week rest against 14 rivals. He returned just six days later to win a stakes against 15 rivals going a mile. This year, he returned in a stakes run over a muddy track and finished fourth before shipping to Dubai for the G2 U.A.E. Derby.
Facing just six foes in the 1 3/16 miles contest, including the impressive filly Polar River, Lani broke terribly and spotted the field several lengths before catching up to the pack down the backstretch. He made a prolonged, wide move to get into contention on the far turn and kept on grinding on the outside while Polar River found trouble towards the inside. Lani hit the lead and managed to hold off the previously undefeated Polar River to win by ¾ of a length.
The Derby has been on his connections minds since January, when it is rumored they secured their Louisville hotel rooms. Lani arrived in Kentucky the first week of April and has trained at Churchill for nearly a month in a sometimes unorthodox manner. He’s had just two timed workouts, including three furlongs in :37 4/5 on Wednesday, April 27th and is scheduled to have his final major move during the week. Champion Japanese rider Yutaka Take has ridden him in all but one of his races and will be aboard in the Derby.
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The second of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from Kentucky. The Bluegrass State offers up four runners who to the Derby Gods this season and could supply some of the more mysterious, intriguing contenders. With that said, we will start with a two time G1 winner, Brody’s Cause.
Owned by Albaugh Family Stables and trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause has done his best work in horse country, with all three of his victories coming in the state. After a failed debut on the turf, the son of Giant’s Causeway to win a one mile maiden event at Churchill Downs at over 33-1 with a powerful last-to-first move.
Wheeled back three weeks later, Brody’s Cause put in a similar late rally to win the Breeders’ Futurity in the mud at Keeneland before finishing out his juvenile campaign with a strong third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Romans waited over four months to run him for the first time this year and Brody’s Cause surfaced in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Over a notoriously quirky racing surface, he didn’t raise a hoof as the 2-1 favorite after getting bumped slightly at the start and beat just two in the field of nine, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winner.
He returned to the scene of his greatest score for what would be his final prep and was sent off at 4-1 in the Blue Grass. Under new rider Luis Saez for the first time, as regular rider Corey Lanerie stuck with another Romans runner in Cherry Wine, Brody’s Cause raced, as usual, towards the back of the pack as the field went the first half mile in a sharp :46 3/5.
Saez turned Brody’s Cause loose approaching the far turn and picked his way through the field before tipping six wide on the turn and hitting the lead in mid-stretch. He outkicked a couple of similar late rallies, including Cherry Wine’s, who managed to get third, to win by 1 ¾ lengths.
Brody’s Cause has had the luxury of training out of his own stall at Churchill Downs since the Blue Grass win and finished up his serious training with a five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 on Saturday, April 30th.
My Man Sam was the other rallying late in the Blue Grass with the Romans runners and finished up strongly to get the place money in just the fourth start of his career for trainer Chad Brown and an ownership group led by Sheep Pond Partners, who also own the great Lady Eli.
My Man Sam made the first three starts of his career over the inner track at Aqueduct, a surface that has historically favored front runners, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. He followed an off the board debut in a sprint with a breathtaking maiden win by eight lengths, a race in which he was nearly 15 lengths behind with a half mile to go. A second place finish by a length to the highly regarded Mat King Coal, who got loose on the lead that day, was his final start before the Blue Grass.
Under Julien Leparoux, My Man Sam had to overcome outside post 14 and eventually passed all but the winner in the Blue Grass while rallying eight wide to get enough points to qualify for the Derby field.
A son of Trappe Shot, My Man Sam will be reunited with Ortiz, Jr. for the Derby as Brown uses him regularly throughout the year. My Man Sam worked a half at Churchill in :49 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Despite being taken off of My Man Sam, Leparoux will ride the Derby, only he’ll be aboard G3 Spiral winner Oscar Nominated for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who has put up a $200,000 supplemental fee and trainer Mike Maker. By Ramsey’s amazing sire Kitten’s Joy, he’ll be making his first start on conventional dirt in the Derby.
Oscar Nominated started out his career in the barn of Bill Mott and was claimed by Maker in start three, a $75,000 maiden claiming win on the turf at Belmont. After finishing second in an entry level allowance contest on the lawn at Churchill under Leparoux, he was given a couple of months off.
Oscar Nominated returned in a couple of minor turf stakes at the Fair Grounds, finishing second by a neck in January before rallying to get the money in the Black Gold in late February. He made his first non-turf start in the Spiral over the Turfway Park Polytrack surface.
Under a perfectly timed ride by Brian Hernandez, Jr., who’ll pilot Tom’s Ready in the Derby, Oscar Nominated raced in mid-pack before swooping down the center of the course to win a multiple horse photo by a neck at 23-1.
Oscar Nominated has been stabled just down the road from Churchill Downs at their sister Training Center but did ship over to work under the Twin Spires, going five panels in 1:00 4/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Three years ago, Lani was born in Kentucky before being whisked away to Japan, where he has raced for Yoko Maeda and trainer Mikio Matsunaga.
By world-class sire Tapit, Lani debuted on the turf last September at 1 ¼ miles. He managed only a fourth place finish and after finishing second in his dirt debut finally broke his maiden at third asking going about nine furlongs off of a seven week rest against 14 rivals. He returned just six days later to win a stakes against 15 rivals going a mile. This year, he returned in a stakes run over a muddy track and finished fourth before shipping to Dubai for the G2 U.A.E. Derby.
Facing just six foes in the 1 3/16 miles contest, including the impressive filly Polar River, Lani broke terribly and spotted the field several lengths before catching up to the pack down the backstretch. He made a prolonged, wide move to get into contention on the far turn and kept on grinding on the outside while Polar River found trouble towards the inside. Lani hit the lead and managed to hold off the previously undefeated Polar River to win by ¾ of a length.
The Derby has been on his connections minds since January, when it is rumored they secured their Louisville hotel rooms. Lani arrived in Kentucky the first week of April and has trained at Churchill for nearly a month in a sometimes unorthodox manner. He’s had just two timed workouts, including three furlongs in :37 4/5 on Wednesday, April 27th and is scheduled to have his final major move during the week. Champion Japanese rider Yutaka Take has ridden him in all but one of his races and will be aboard in the Derby.
Derby Contenders - Part 3
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The third of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from the East Coast. We’ll have six in all, three from New York and three from Florida, led by a horse who has had had plenty of success in both states, Mohaymen.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Shadwell Stables, Mohaymen won all three starts as a juvenile, a maiden event at Belmont as well as the G2 Nashua at a mile and G2 Remsen at nine furlongs at Aqueduct, and was a finalist for the Outstanding Two-Year-Old Eclipse Award.
A $2.2 million yearling purchase, the son of super-sire Tapit returned to action after a two month break as a three-year-old and picked up right where he left off, with an easy tally in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, then took the G2 Fountain of Youth with similar ease.
A matchup with Eclipse champ and fellow undefeated runner Nyquist was set in the G1 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. On and off rains throughout the day left the track a gooey mess one minute then drying out muck the next. It was labeled good by the time the main event rolled around. Nyquist didn’t seem to mind the course. Mohaymen did.
Breaking from post 9 under regular rider Junior Alvarado, Mohaymen was bumped several times heading into the first turn and was wide throughout. He took a little run at Nyquist approaching the far turn but was easily turned aside and trudged home fourth, beaten over eight lengths.
Mohaymen seems to have rebounded nicely from his lone defeat, putting in a couple of solid works at Churchill, including a sharp half mile in in :47 2/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Grupo 7C Racing’s Majesto will be seeking his first stakes win in the Derby and has won just once in his six career starts. As a two-year-old, the son of 2000/2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow finished third in his sprint debut at Belmont before a second place finish around two turns a couple of months later in what would be the first of five consecutive starts at Gulfstream Park for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
A pair of sub-par efforts that resulted in a sixth place finish as the 9-5 chalk and third place finish in which he leveled off in the final eighth of a mile preceded a workmanlike maiden tally over a now-stakes winning Dig Deep, under Javier Castellano.
Unlike Mohaymen, Majesto was able to save ground under Castellano in the Florida Derby and parlayed an uneventful journey into a second place finish that concluded with a useful rally along the inside.
Majesto worked twice at Gulfstream Park West, including a one mile breeze, before working at Churchill Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. Emisael Jaramillo, a 39-year-old riding champion from Venezuela who had a fantastic Gulfstream Park Championship Meet, will ride for the first time.
Jaramillo picks up the call on Majesto because Castellano has decided to stick with Destin, one of two Derby contenders for his main man, Todd Pletcher.
A son of Giant’s Causeway, Destin won his debut in October at Belmont, beating Majesto and others before burning a ton of money in an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream when he finished second as the 3-10 favorite.
Pletcher, who won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver, added blinkers and shipped Destin to the Fair Grounds for the G3 LeComte. Destin failed to menace and finished fourth, five lengths behind the winner. Another surface switch followed as Destin found himself in Tampa for the G3 Sam F Davis a month layoff. The move paid off as Destin made the lead turning for home and drew off to a 2 ¼ length score.
He returned to Florida’s west coast for the G2 Tampa Bay Derby at the same 1 1/16 mile distance and showed his affinity for the quirky surface when he made a similar move to the one in the Davis to win by a length with Castellano up.
And that’s been it. Pletcher, usually as by the book as it gets, will unconventionally run Destin for Twin Creeks Racing in the Derby without the benefit of a nine furlong prep off of a 56 day layoff. He’s recorded five works since his last start, four at his winter base of Palm Beach Downs with the most recent being a five furlong move at Churchill in 1:01 1/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Pletcher will also send out the lightly raced, highly talented Outwork in Derby 142 for Mike Repole. Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who’s shown faith in this son of Uncle Mo on two separate occasions this winter and has ridden him in all four starts, has the mount. Velazquez won this in 2011 with Animal Kingdom.
Outwork started his career back in April of last year, winning a 4 ½ furlong maiden event at Keeneland by two lengths. He was away for nearly 10 months before returning to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going six furlongs at Tampa by over four lengths.
Outwork made his stakes/two turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby and led most of the way before getting gunned down by his more seasoned stablemate in deep stretch. In an attempt to keep his prospects separated for the big 100 point, final preps, Pletcher opted to ship Outwork north.
Five years to the day that his sire, who was campaigned by the same connections, lost for the first time, in the G1 Wood Memorial, his son Outwork exacted a bit of redemption. After duking it out on the front-end early, Outwork faced a couple of far turn challenges then held on late to win by a head over the muddy main track at Aqueduct, a photo finish that resulted in Repole bear-hugging Pletcher in the paddock at the Big A once posted.
Outwork was stabled across town from Aqueduct at Pletcher’s Belmont barn before he shipped to Churchill. He went five furlongs in 1:01 on Friday, April 29th and seemed to mover over the track a bit better than most.
The two points Outwork’s detractors will make are that it was the slowest running of the nine furlong Wood Memorial in its’ 92 year history and that he won the aforementioned photo over a maiden, Trojan Nation.
Trainer Patrick Gallagher decided to send Trojan Nation east from California for the Wood Memorial for owners Julie Gilbert and Dr. Aaron Sones in spite of the fact that the son of Street Cry, sire of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, was winless in five prior starts.
In fact, Trojan Nation had mustered just a third place finish from three juvenile starts and a couple of third place finishes as a sophomore, with the last four coming around two turns.
But in the centerpiece of the Aqueduct meeting, Trojan Nation caught a muddy track that he apparently loved and got a solid half-mile of :46 4/5 to close into. And close he did, coming from last, nearly 20 lengths behind the leaders down the backstretch along the rail, to come within a head bob of taking the G1 staple under Aaron Gryder.
Gallagher waited a few days before committing the maiden to a run for the roses. No maiden has won the Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933. He’s done the bulk of his training at Santa Anita, including a six furlong work in 1:12 3/5 on Thursday, April 28th.
Shagaf looks to get back on track after a fifth place finish in the Wood Memorial, the first defeat in his short career for Shadwell and trainer Chad Brown.
Shagaf, a son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini, won his lone start last year, a one mile maiden event at Aqueduct by six easy lengths before returning nine weeks later to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going the same distance at Gulfstream by two lengths.
The G3 Gotham over the inner track at Aqueduct served as Shagaf’s foray into graded stakes company as well as his first start around two turns. Shagaf saved ground going 1 1/16 miles and tipped out in the stretch before grinding out a 1 ¼ length victory over the maiden Laoban, who was loose on the lead from the rail on a day inside speed reigned supreme.
Shagaf stayed in New York to prepare for the Wood Memorial and was sent off the slight 9-5 favorite. He had just Trojan Nation beat down the backside and began to move up approaching the turn, swung out for the drive but did little more than spin his wheels in the mud from the quarter pole home.
Shagaf has had just a couple of works, both at Churchill since, including a :47 4/5 half mile move on Friday, April 29th. Joel Rosario, who piloted Orb to a popular Derby victory in 2013, replaces Irad Ortiz, Jr. who has ridden him in all of his prior starts. He’ll ride Brown’s other contender, My Man Sam.
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The third of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from the East Coast. We’ll have six in all, three from New York and three from Florida, led by a horse who has had had plenty of success in both states, Mohaymen.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Shadwell Stables, Mohaymen won all three starts as a juvenile, a maiden event at Belmont as well as the G2 Nashua at a mile and G2 Remsen at nine furlongs at Aqueduct, and was a finalist for the Outstanding Two-Year-Old Eclipse Award.
A $2.2 million yearling purchase, the son of super-sire Tapit returned to action after a two month break as a three-year-old and picked up right where he left off, with an easy tally in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, then took the G2 Fountain of Youth with similar ease.
A matchup with Eclipse champ and fellow undefeated runner Nyquist was set in the G1 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. On and off rains throughout the day left the track a gooey mess one minute then drying out muck the next. It was labeled good by the time the main event rolled around. Nyquist didn’t seem to mind the course. Mohaymen did.
Breaking from post 9 under regular rider Junior Alvarado, Mohaymen was bumped several times heading into the first turn and was wide throughout. He took a little run at Nyquist approaching the far turn but was easily turned aside and trudged home fourth, beaten over eight lengths.
Mohaymen seems to have rebounded nicely from his lone defeat, putting in a couple of solid works at Churchill, including a sharp half mile in in :47 2/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Grupo 7C Racing’s Majesto will be seeking his first stakes win in the Derby and has won just once in his six career starts. As a two-year-old, the son of 2000/2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow finished third in his sprint debut at Belmont before a second place finish around two turns a couple of months later in what would be the first of five consecutive starts at Gulfstream Park for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
A pair of sub-par efforts that resulted in a sixth place finish as the 9-5 chalk and third place finish in which he leveled off in the final eighth of a mile preceded a workmanlike maiden tally over a now-stakes winning Dig Deep, under Javier Castellano.
Unlike Mohaymen, Majesto was able to save ground under Castellano in the Florida Derby and parlayed an uneventful journey into a second place finish that concluded with a useful rally along the inside.
Majesto worked twice at Gulfstream Park West, including a one mile breeze, before working at Churchill Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. Emisael Jaramillo, a 39-year-old riding champion from Venezuela who had a fantastic Gulfstream Park Championship Meet, will ride for the first time.
Jaramillo picks up the call on Majesto because Castellano has decided to stick with Destin, one of two Derby contenders for his main man, Todd Pletcher.
A son of Giant’s Causeway, Destin won his debut in October at Belmont, beating Majesto and others before burning a ton of money in an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream when he finished second as the 3-10 favorite.
Pletcher, who won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver, added blinkers and shipped Destin to the Fair Grounds for the G3 LeComte. Destin failed to menace and finished fourth, five lengths behind the winner. Another surface switch followed as Destin found himself in Tampa for the G3 Sam F Davis a month layoff. The move paid off as Destin made the lead turning for home and drew off to a 2 ¼ length score.
He returned to Florida’s west coast for the G2 Tampa Bay Derby at the same 1 1/16 mile distance and showed his affinity for the quirky surface when he made a similar move to the one in the Davis to win by a length with Castellano up.
And that’s been it. Pletcher, usually as by the book as it gets, will unconventionally run Destin for Twin Creeks Racing in the Derby without the benefit of a nine furlong prep off of a 56 day layoff. He’s recorded five works since his last start, four at his winter base of Palm Beach Downs with the most recent being a five furlong move at Churchill in 1:01 1/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Pletcher will also send out the lightly raced, highly talented Outwork in Derby 142 for Mike Repole. Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who’s shown faith in this son of Uncle Mo on two separate occasions this winter and has ridden him in all four starts, has the mount. Velazquez won this in 2011 with Animal Kingdom.
Outwork started his career back in April of last year, winning a 4 ½ furlong maiden event at Keeneland by two lengths. He was away for nearly 10 months before returning to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going six furlongs at Tampa by over four lengths.
Outwork made his stakes/two turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby and led most of the way before getting gunned down by his more seasoned stablemate in deep stretch. In an attempt to keep his prospects separated for the big 100 point, final preps, Pletcher opted to ship Outwork north.
Five years to the day that his sire, who was campaigned by the same connections, lost for the first time, in the G1 Wood Memorial, his son Outwork exacted a bit of redemption. After duking it out on the front-end early, Outwork faced a couple of far turn challenges then held on late to win by a head over the muddy main track at Aqueduct, a photo finish that resulted in Repole bear-hugging Pletcher in the paddock at the Big A once posted.
Outwork was stabled across town from Aqueduct at Pletcher’s Belmont barn before he shipped to Churchill. He went five furlongs in 1:01 on Friday, April 29th and seemed to mover over the track a bit better than most.
The two points Outwork’s detractors will make are that it was the slowest running of the nine furlong Wood Memorial in its’ 92 year history and that he won the aforementioned photo over a maiden, Trojan Nation.
Trainer Patrick Gallagher decided to send Trojan Nation east from California for the Wood Memorial for owners Julie Gilbert and Dr. Aaron Sones in spite of the fact that the son of Street Cry, sire of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, was winless in five prior starts.
In fact, Trojan Nation had mustered just a third place finish from three juvenile starts and a couple of third place finishes as a sophomore, with the last four coming around two turns.
But in the centerpiece of the Aqueduct meeting, Trojan Nation caught a muddy track that he apparently loved and got a solid half-mile of :46 4/5 to close into. And close he did, coming from last, nearly 20 lengths behind the leaders down the backstretch along the rail, to come within a head bob of taking the G1 staple under Aaron Gryder.
Gallagher waited a few days before committing the maiden to a run for the roses. No maiden has won the Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933. He’s done the bulk of his training at Santa Anita, including a six furlong work in 1:12 3/5 on Thursday, April 28th.
Shagaf looks to get back on track after a fifth place finish in the Wood Memorial, the first defeat in his short career for Shadwell and trainer Chad Brown.
Shagaf, a son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini, won his lone start last year, a one mile maiden event at Aqueduct by six easy lengths before returning nine weeks later to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going the same distance at Gulfstream by two lengths.
The G3 Gotham over the inner track at Aqueduct served as Shagaf’s foray into graded stakes company as well as his first start around two turns. Shagaf saved ground going 1 1/16 miles and tipped out in the stretch before grinding out a 1 ¼ length victory over the maiden Laoban, who was loose on the lead from the rail on a day inside speed reigned supreme.
Shagaf stayed in New York to prepare for the Wood Memorial and was sent off the slight 9-5 favorite. He had just Trojan Nation beat down the backside and began to move up approaching the turn, swung out for the drive but did little more than spin his wheels in the mud from the quarter pole home.
Shagaf has had just a couple of works, both at Churchill since, including a :47 4/5 half mile move on Friday, April 29th. Joel Rosario, who piloted Orb to a popular Derby victory in 2013, replaces Irad Ortiz, Jr. who has ridden him in all of his prior starts. He’ll ride Brown’s other contender, My Man Sam.
Derby Contenders - Part 4
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The fourth of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the three runners from Louisiana and the three from Arkansas. Steve Asmussen, recently announced as one of four new inductees to the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, trains two of these contenders, Gun Runner and Creator.
Gun Runner has done little wrong in his five start career for his owners, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm. As a juvenile, he won his first two starts, including a one mile maiden event at Churchill, before finishing fourth in the G2 KJC in the slop after making the lead in mid-stretch.
He returned from a near three month break in the G2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds with new rider Florent Geroux. He saved ground in midpack before moving up approaching the turn and grabbing the lead in the stretch, holding on by just half a length after visibly tiring late.
By Candy Ride, Gun Runner drew the rail in his final prep, the G2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs. Under a masterful ride by Geroux, he sat just a couple of lengths off the early pace, made an aggressive move to the leaders on the turn and opened up a two length lead in the stretch. Instead of tiring, however, Gun Runner turned it on and powered home a 4 ½ length winner.
Gun Runner shipped to Churchill soon after his last win and will come into the Derby off of a 42 day layoff, He’s worked every Monday since April 4th, typical Asmussen, including an easy half mile in :50 2/5 on Monday May 2nd.
Stablemate Creator will have half that time between starts as he took the Oaklawn Park route to Louisville for owners WinStar Farm. And speaking of time, Creator took it to break his maiden, losing all four starts last year and his first this year before finally getting it done in his Oaklawn debut with a solid last to first move.
Asmussen thought enough of this son of the great Tapit, who sired 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, to run him right back in the G2 Rebel. As usual, Creator set up camp towards the rear of the field from his rail draw but closed nicely towards the center of the track to finish third, beaten just three lengths.
Creator stamped himself a serious Derby contender last out with an impressive 1 ¼ length tally in the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Taken back to last by Ricardo Santana, Jr., Creator had just three horses beat on the far turn before exploding through the back, as opposed to going around them, to win going away under his pumped up jock.
He too went straight to Churchill after his race and has worked just twice, including a :50 3/5 half on Monday, May 2nd.
Suddenbreakingnews is one of the more consistent runners in the field, compiling three wins and four runner-up finishes in his eight race career for owner Samuel Henderson and trainer Donnie Von Hemel.
Suddenbreakingnews, a gelded son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, made five starts as a two-year-old and won twice, including a minor stakes race at Remington Park before closing out the season at that track with a second place finish in the Springboard Mile in the slop under regular rider Luis Quinonez.
After a two month break, Suddenbreakingnews returned in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn and thrust himself into the Derby spotlight with a sparkling last to first move in the field of 14. He tried to do the same in the Rebel bud didn’t fire as strongly, perhaps a product of some far turn traffic trouble.
It was a different story in the Arkansas Derby last out when he was actually a couple of lengths closer than he had been of late and came charging with his late run but proved to be no match for Creator.
He’s worked just once since his last start, a solid five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th.
Whitmore has had a productive winter for his ownership group that includes Harry Rosenblum and Bob LaPenta in spite of the fact that his lone win was in an entry level allowance contest.
A gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect, Whitmore raced twice as a juvenile, winning his debut before an off the board finish in the G3 Delta Jackpot, two months before that win at Oaklawn to start the season for his trainer Ron Moquett.
Whitmore has been the victim of circumstance in a couple of his starts this year. He looked home free in the Southwest before Suddenbreakingnews came calling and made a menacing move at Cupid in the Rebel before being held at bay, ultimately finishing second in both.
Last out in the Arkansas Derby, the plan was the keep him a bit closer than he had been in his prior two efforts but he clipped heels several jumps out of the gate and was once again forced to settle towards the rear of the field. He came with his usual rally but was forced to settle for third after rallying down the six-path and brushing with Creator in the stretch under Irad Ortiz, Jr.
With Ortiz committed to My Man Sam, Whitmore’s connections have reached out to three time Derby winner Victor Espinoza. He won his first Derby in 2002 with War Emblem and the last two runnings with California Chrome and American Pharoah. He finished up his major preparation on Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill.
G M B Racing will be represented by a couple of runners in the Derby, Mo Tom from the barn of trainer Tom Amoss and Tom’s Ready, who’s trained by Dallas Stewart.
Last year, Mo Tom won twice and finished third twice from four starts. A win in the Street Sense at Churchill going a mile was followed by a third place finish in the KJC.
Amoss took Mo Tom, a son of Uncle Mo, down to the Fair Grounds for the winter and Mo Tom won first out as a sophomore, coming from far back to take the G3 LeComte. Then things got interesting.
Mo Tom came charging along the inside in the Risen Star and looked like he’d get to Gun Runner but was forced to steady in traffic and couldn’t get outside in time, settling for third.
A similar fate awaited Mo Tom in the Louisiana Derby, though it’s tough to say if he’d have gotten to the winner. What can be said is his rider Corey Lanerie did the exact same thing, getting him hemmed up along the inside when he could have swung clear of traffic, and cost him at least two placings when he finished a tough luck fourth.
Amoss flipped out and took Lanerie off of another of his runners, one that found the winners’ circle, just 20 minutes before the race. After some deliberation it was decided that Lanerie would amazingly keep the mount. Mo Tom finished up his major work with a half mile at Churchill in :48 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Toms Ready has had a far less eventful campaign. A son of More Than Ready, he’s won just once in nine starts, a seven furlong maiden event at Churchill last fall. In all he ran six times as a two-year-old and was second to his stablemate in the Street Sense.
He started this season in similar fashion, as he was second to Mo Tom in the LeComte before failing to fire in the Risen Star.
Last out, he overcame some trouble at the start and managed to work his way into contention while staying out of trouble to finish second, over four lengths behind the winner at over 30-1.
Longshots in big races has become a bit of a specialty for Stewart, who trained Golden Soul and Commanding Curve to finish second in the Derby in 2013 and 2014 at over 30-1 and Tale of Verve to do the same last year in the Preakness. Tom’s Ready blazed five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will ride.
By Anthony Stabile
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 142 on May 7th at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The fourth of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the three runners from Louisiana and the three from Arkansas. Steve Asmussen, recently announced as one of four new inductees to the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, trains two of these contenders, Gun Runner and Creator.
Gun Runner has done little wrong in his five start career for his owners, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm. As a juvenile, he won his first two starts, including a one mile maiden event at Churchill, before finishing fourth in the G2 KJC in the slop after making the lead in mid-stretch.
He returned from a near three month break in the G2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds with new rider Florent Geroux. He saved ground in midpack before moving up approaching the turn and grabbing the lead in the stretch, holding on by just half a length after visibly tiring late.
By Candy Ride, Gun Runner drew the rail in his final prep, the G2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs. Under a masterful ride by Geroux, he sat just a couple of lengths off the early pace, made an aggressive move to the leaders on the turn and opened up a two length lead in the stretch. Instead of tiring, however, Gun Runner turned it on and powered home a 4 ½ length winner.
Gun Runner shipped to Churchill soon after his last win and will come into the Derby off of a 42 day layoff, He’s worked every Monday since April 4th, typical Asmussen, including an easy half mile in :50 2/5 on Monday May 2nd.
Stablemate Creator will have half that time between starts as he took the Oaklawn Park route to Louisville for owners WinStar Farm. And speaking of time, Creator took it to break his maiden, losing all four starts last year and his first this year before finally getting it done in his Oaklawn debut with a solid last to first move.
Asmussen thought enough of this son of the great Tapit, who sired 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, to run him right back in the G2 Rebel. As usual, Creator set up camp towards the rear of the field from his rail draw but closed nicely towards the center of the track to finish third, beaten just three lengths.
Creator stamped himself a serious Derby contender last out with an impressive 1 ¼ length tally in the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Taken back to last by Ricardo Santana, Jr., Creator had just three horses beat on the far turn before exploding through the back, as opposed to going around them, to win going away under his pumped up jock.
He too went straight to Churchill after his race and has worked just twice, including a :50 3/5 half on Monday, May 2nd.
Suddenbreakingnews is one of the more consistent runners in the field, compiling three wins and four runner-up finishes in his eight race career for owner Samuel Henderson and trainer Donnie Von Hemel.
Suddenbreakingnews, a gelded son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, made five starts as a two-year-old and won twice, including a minor stakes race at Remington Park before closing out the season at that track with a second place finish in the Springboard Mile in the slop under regular rider Luis Quinonez.
After a two month break, Suddenbreakingnews returned in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn and thrust himself into the Derby spotlight with a sparkling last to first move in the field of 14. He tried to do the same in the Rebel bud didn’t fire as strongly, perhaps a product of some far turn traffic trouble.
It was a different story in the Arkansas Derby last out when he was actually a couple of lengths closer than he had been of late and came charging with his late run but proved to be no match for Creator.
He’s worked just once since his last start, a solid five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th.
Whitmore has had a productive winter for his ownership group that includes Harry Rosenblum and Bob LaPenta in spite of the fact that his lone win was in an entry level allowance contest.
A gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect, Whitmore raced twice as a juvenile, winning his debut before an off the board finish in the G3 Delta Jackpot, two months before that win at Oaklawn to start the season for his trainer Ron Moquett.
Whitmore has been the victim of circumstance in a couple of his starts this year. He looked home free in the Southwest before Suddenbreakingnews came calling and made a menacing move at Cupid in the Rebel before being held at bay, ultimately finishing second in both.
Last out in the Arkansas Derby, the plan was the keep him a bit closer than he had been in his prior two efforts but he clipped heels several jumps out of the gate and was once again forced to settle towards the rear of the field. He came with his usual rally but was forced to settle for third after rallying down the six-path and brushing with Creator in the stretch under Irad Ortiz, Jr.
With Ortiz committed to My Man Sam, Whitmore’s connections have reached out to three time Derby winner Victor Espinoza. He won his first Derby in 2002 with War Emblem and the last two runnings with California Chrome and American Pharoah. He finished up his major preparation on Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill.
G M B Racing will be represented by a couple of runners in the Derby, Mo Tom from the barn of trainer Tom Amoss and Tom’s Ready, who’s trained by Dallas Stewart.
Last year, Mo Tom won twice and finished third twice from four starts. A win in the Street Sense at Churchill going a mile was followed by a third place finish in the KJC.
Amoss took Mo Tom, a son of Uncle Mo, down to the Fair Grounds for the winter and Mo Tom won first out as a sophomore, coming from far back to take the G3 LeComte. Then things got interesting.
Mo Tom came charging along the inside in the Risen Star and looked like he’d get to Gun Runner but was forced to steady in traffic and couldn’t get outside in time, settling for third.
A similar fate awaited Mo Tom in the Louisiana Derby, though it’s tough to say if he’d have gotten to the winner. What can be said is his rider Corey Lanerie did the exact same thing, getting him hemmed up along the inside when he could have swung clear of traffic, and cost him at least two placings when he finished a tough luck fourth.
Amoss flipped out and took Lanerie off of another of his runners, one that found the winners’ circle, just 20 minutes before the race. After some deliberation it was decided that Lanerie would amazingly keep the mount. Mo Tom finished up his major work with a half mile at Churchill in :48 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.
Toms Ready has had a far less eventful campaign. A son of More Than Ready, he’s won just once in nine starts, a seven furlong maiden event at Churchill last fall. In all he ran six times as a two-year-old and was second to his stablemate in the Street Sense.
He started this season in similar fashion, as he was second to Mo Tom in the LeComte before failing to fire in the Risen Star.
Last out, he overcame some trouble at the start and managed to work his way into contention while staying out of trouble to finish second, over four lengths behind the winner at over 30-1.
Longshots in big races has become a bit of a specialty for Stewart, who trained Golden Soul and Commanding Curve to finish second in the Derby in 2013 and 2014 at over 30-1 and Tale of Verve to do the same last year in the Preakness. Tom’s Ready blazed five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will ride.
Kentucky Derby post draw complete, morning line odds released
Get your Mint Julips and weird fancy hats ready because the post draw for the 2016 Kentucky Derby is complete and we have Mike Battaglia 's morning line odds for the "Run for the Roses".
As expected, Nyquist opens post-draw as the favorite (3-1) with Exaggerator as the second favorite (8-1). After the top two there are a slew of good horses at 10/1 and 12/1.
Here are the post positions and odds for the full field:
1. Trojan Nation (50-1)
2. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
3. Creator (10-1)
4. Mo Tom (20-1)
5. Gun Runner (10-1)
6. My Man Sam (20-1)
7. Oscar Nominated (50-1)
8. Lani (30-1)
9. Destin (15-1)
10. Whitmore (20-1)
11. Exaggerator (8-1)
12. Tom's Ready (30-1)
13. Nyquist (3-1)
14. Mohaymen (10-1)
15. Outwork (15-1)
16. Shagaf (20-1)
17. Mor Spirit (12-1)
18. Majesto (30-1)
19. Brody's Cause (12-1)
20. Danzing Candy (15-1)
Get your Mint Julips and weird fancy hats ready because the post draw for the 2016 Kentucky Derby is complete and we have Mike Battaglia 's morning line odds for the "Run for the Roses".
As expected, Nyquist opens post-draw as the favorite (3-1) with Exaggerator as the second favorite (8-1). After the top two there are a slew of good horses at 10/1 and 12/1.
Here are the post positions and odds for the full field:
1. Trojan Nation (50-1)
2. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
3. Creator (10-1)
4. Mo Tom (20-1)
5. Gun Runner (10-1)
6. My Man Sam (20-1)
7. Oscar Nominated (50-1)
8. Lani (30-1)
9. Destin (15-1)
10. Whitmore (20-1)
11. Exaggerator (8-1)
12. Tom's Ready (30-1)
13. Nyquist (3-1)
14. Mohaymen (10-1)
15. Outwork (15-1)
16. Shagaf (20-1)
17. Mor Spirit (12-1)
18. Majesto (30-1)
19. Brody's Cause (12-1)
20. Danzing Candy (15-1)
Kentucky Derby betting odds horse-by-horse preview and picks
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year marks the 142nd Kentucky Derby. The last time we saw back-to-back Triple Crown winners was in 1977 and 1978. With American Pharoah’s Triple Crown victory still fresh in our minds, perhaps this year will prove history does repeat itself.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:
1. Trojan Nation (Jockey – Aaron Gryder, 50-1): Drew the dreaded rail post and for a maiden runner, this is practically a death sentence. Like many others in here, he’ll be closing from far back. His pedigree states he should take well to the distance.
2. Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez, 20-1): Another closer who may appreciate the added furlongs and longer stretch. He’s a graded stakes winner who has only been worse than second once. Drawing inside isn’t the worst, but the No. 2 hole has not been a favorable post with the last No. 2 horse winning in 1978.
3. Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr, 10-1): He quietly ran the third-highest Beyer speed figure last time out. He’s coming fresh off of a win in the Arkansas Derby and will likely appreciate the added furlongs to make his move late.
4. Mo Tom (Corey Lanerie, 20-1): This colt has often been left with too much work to do in the stretch, so he’s certainly hoping for room to run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s had legitimate excuses in his last couple of races and seems to have the raw talent necessary but will need some racing luck.
5. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux, 10-1): Has been perfect since Geroux took over riding. It’s been over 20 years since a horse has won the Kentucky Derby exiting a win in the Louisiana Derby and if you’re one for trends, he has that going against him. He’s already raced over the Churchill surface which is always an added bonus. He’s one who will like to sit closer to the pace.
6. My Man Sam (Irad Ortiz Jr, 20-1): He has only raced in one graded stakes event, the Blue Grass, where he finished second to Brody’s Cause. In that race, he overcame a wide trip out of the far outside post. Like many others in here, he’ll be hoping for a favorable pace scenario and will be attempting to close late.
7. Oscar Nominated (Julien Leparoux, 50-1): He’s never ran on the dirt before and his sire is known to produce turf runners, so we question how he will take to the dirt surface. He’ll likely be the longest price on the board Saturday and for good reason. A positive about this one is that he’s coming off two straight wins.
8. Lani (Yutaka Take, 30-1): The huge wild card who’s Kentucky bred but based out of Japan. His pedigree undoubtedly indicates he wants to go a mile and a quarter. Broke poorly in his last start and rallied from last to win the UAE Derby. He’s shown a history of being highly temperamental, but the raw talent is certainly there.
9. Destin (Javier Castellano, 15-1): He’s coming off breaking the track record at Tampa Bay Downs in the G2 Derby. This colt has won two straight and is one of only three others to post a Beyer figure of 100 or more. Trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to give this one eight weeks off. He’ll certainly be fresh.
10. Whitmore (Victor Espinoza, 20-1): He’s had a couple of wide trips and was squeezed at the start of the Arkansas Derby in his last start, so he may have been forced to race from much farther back than intended. He certainly has the hot jockey in Espinoza, who is going for his third Derby victory in a row. This gelding returns to the track he broke his maiden at.
11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 8-1): This colt blew by Mor Spirit in his last start in the final turn, producing one of the most visually impressive performances out of a three year old this year. He’ll likely be positioned mid pack pending a good break and we anticipate he’ll have every shot to make a good, clean run in the stretch.
12. Tom’s Ready (Brian Hernandez Jr, 30-1): Raced very poorly in the Risen Star, but came back to finish second last time out in the Louisiana Derby to Gun Runner. His only win has come against other maidens, so a finish in the money would be surprising to most. Huge long shot.
13. Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez, 3-1): He has shown racing versatility with wins coming from off the pace, wire-to-wire, and off stalking trips. He also boasts an undefeated record after excelling at two and now three years old. He hasn’t shown flashy victories, but he’s gotten the job done every single time. Hard to fault a consistent winner.
14. Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado, 10-1): Suffered his first career defeat last time out to Nyquist. One can argue this $2.2 million purchase didn’t take well to the “good” track surface at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. The huge questions in here are: will he handle the distance? And is he capable of a bounce-back performance following a subpar effort?
15. Outwork (John Velazquez, 15-1): One of a few in here who have shown some early speed. He’s quietly won three of four races including a victory in the Wood Memorial last time out. I question his ability to handle the distance. With others closing late, I think this one may be involved early but slowly start fading as others make their move.
16. Shagaf (Joel Rosario, 20-1): One can argue he did not take well to the sloppy track in the Wood Memorial. He’s another who looks like they will struggle getting the extra furlongs the Derby provides. His pedigree certainly supports the argument that he’s better suited at shorter distances.
17. Mor Spirit (Gary Stevens, 12-1): Has been first or second in all of his career starts. Seems like most of the speed horses drew outside, which isn’t necessarily the worst for their running style. I don’t think he’ll be on the lead, but he’ll be within a couple lengths off the front early on and hoping to hang on for a piece late.
18. Majesto (Emisael Jaramilla, 30-1): It took him five starts to break his maiden, but he was runner-up in the Florida Derby in his first start against graded stakes company. Bred to handle the distance, he’ll be one of many in here closing late.
19. Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez, 12-1): Consistency is an issue with this horse. He ran excellent in the Blue Grass but also could not have looked worse two starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby. He doesn’t need the cleanest of breaks, because he’ll be closing from far, far, far back. With his best effort, he’s definitely capable.
20. Danzing Candy (Mike Smith, 15-1): Finally, a horse who will attempt to wire the field like he did in the San Felipe two starts back. He has working to his advantage that few others in here are even interested in being closer to the pace, let alone on the lead. Having Mike Smith aboard is always a positive, but there are obvious distance concerns surrounding this one. He’ll be left with not much choice but to go to the front and hope to linger for a piece.
Also Eligible: Laoban (50/1), Cherry Wine (30/1)
Picks: 1. Nyquist. 2. Destin. 3. Mohaymen. 4. Exaggerator. 5. Lani
By MONIQUE VÁG
This year marks the 142nd Kentucky Derby. The last time we saw back-to-back Triple Crown winners was in 1977 and 1978. With American Pharoah’s Triple Crown victory still fresh in our minds, perhaps this year will prove history does repeat itself.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:
1. Trojan Nation (Jockey – Aaron Gryder, 50-1): Drew the dreaded rail post and for a maiden runner, this is practically a death sentence. Like many others in here, he’ll be closing from far back. His pedigree states he should take well to the distance.
2. Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez, 20-1): Another closer who may appreciate the added furlongs and longer stretch. He’s a graded stakes winner who has only been worse than second once. Drawing inside isn’t the worst, but the No. 2 hole has not been a favorable post with the last No. 2 horse winning in 1978.
3. Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr, 10-1): He quietly ran the third-highest Beyer speed figure last time out. He’s coming fresh off of a win in the Arkansas Derby and will likely appreciate the added furlongs to make his move late.
4. Mo Tom (Corey Lanerie, 20-1): This colt has often been left with too much work to do in the stretch, so he’s certainly hoping for room to run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s had legitimate excuses in his last couple of races and seems to have the raw talent necessary but will need some racing luck.
5. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux, 10-1): Has been perfect since Geroux took over riding. It’s been over 20 years since a horse has won the Kentucky Derby exiting a win in the Louisiana Derby and if you’re one for trends, he has that going against him. He’s already raced over the Churchill surface which is always an added bonus. He’s one who will like to sit closer to the pace.
6. My Man Sam (Irad Ortiz Jr, 20-1): He has only raced in one graded stakes event, the Blue Grass, where he finished second to Brody’s Cause. In that race, he overcame a wide trip out of the far outside post. Like many others in here, he’ll be hoping for a favorable pace scenario and will be attempting to close late.
7. Oscar Nominated (Julien Leparoux, 50-1): He’s never ran on the dirt before and his sire is known to produce turf runners, so we question how he will take to the dirt surface. He’ll likely be the longest price on the board Saturday and for good reason. A positive about this one is that he’s coming off two straight wins.
8. Lani (Yutaka Take, 30-1): The huge wild card who’s Kentucky bred but based out of Japan. His pedigree undoubtedly indicates he wants to go a mile and a quarter. Broke poorly in his last start and rallied from last to win the UAE Derby. He’s shown a history of being highly temperamental, but the raw talent is certainly there.
9. Destin (Javier Castellano, 15-1): He’s coming off breaking the track record at Tampa Bay Downs in the G2 Derby. This colt has won two straight and is one of only three others to post a Beyer figure of 100 or more. Trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to give this one eight weeks off. He’ll certainly be fresh.
10. Whitmore (Victor Espinoza, 20-1): He’s had a couple of wide trips and was squeezed at the start of the Arkansas Derby in his last start, so he may have been forced to race from much farther back than intended. He certainly has the hot jockey in Espinoza, who is going for his third Derby victory in a row. This gelding returns to the track he broke his maiden at.
11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 8-1): This colt blew by Mor Spirit in his last start in the final turn, producing one of the most visually impressive performances out of a three year old this year. He’ll likely be positioned mid pack pending a good break and we anticipate he’ll have every shot to make a good, clean run in the stretch.
12. Tom’s Ready (Brian Hernandez Jr, 30-1): Raced very poorly in the Risen Star, but came back to finish second last time out in the Louisiana Derby to Gun Runner. His only win has come against other maidens, so a finish in the money would be surprising to most. Huge long shot.
13. Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez, 3-1): He has shown racing versatility with wins coming from off the pace, wire-to-wire, and off stalking trips. He also boasts an undefeated record after excelling at two and now three years old. He hasn’t shown flashy victories, but he’s gotten the job done every single time. Hard to fault a consistent winner.
14. Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado, 10-1): Suffered his first career defeat last time out to Nyquist. One can argue this $2.2 million purchase didn’t take well to the “good” track surface at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. The huge questions in here are: will he handle the distance? And is he capable of a bounce-back performance following a subpar effort?
15. Outwork (John Velazquez, 15-1): One of a few in here who have shown some early speed. He’s quietly won three of four races including a victory in the Wood Memorial last time out. I question his ability to handle the distance. With others closing late, I think this one may be involved early but slowly start fading as others make their move.
16. Shagaf (Joel Rosario, 20-1): One can argue he did not take well to the sloppy track in the Wood Memorial. He’s another who looks like they will struggle getting the extra furlongs the Derby provides. His pedigree certainly supports the argument that he’s better suited at shorter distances.
17. Mor Spirit (Gary Stevens, 12-1): Has been first or second in all of his career starts. Seems like most of the speed horses drew outside, which isn’t necessarily the worst for their running style. I don’t think he’ll be on the lead, but he’ll be within a couple lengths off the front early on and hoping to hang on for a piece late.
18. Majesto (Emisael Jaramilla, 30-1): It took him five starts to break his maiden, but he was runner-up in the Florida Derby in his first start against graded stakes company. Bred to handle the distance, he’ll be one of many in here closing late.
19. Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez, 12-1): Consistency is an issue with this horse. He ran excellent in the Blue Grass but also could not have looked worse two starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby. He doesn’t need the cleanest of breaks, because he’ll be closing from far, far, far back. With his best effort, he’s definitely capable.
20. Danzing Candy (Mike Smith, 15-1): Finally, a horse who will attempt to wire the field like he did in the San Felipe two starts back. He has working to his advantage that few others in here are even interested in being closer to the pace, let alone on the lead. Having Mike Smith aboard is always a positive, but there are obvious distance concerns surrounding this one. He’ll be left with not much choice but to go to the front and hope to linger for a piece.
Also Eligible: Laoban (50/1), Cherry Wine (30/1)
Picks: 1. Nyquist. 2. Destin. 3. Mohaymen. 4. Exaggerator. 5. Lani
Kentucky Derby Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
The preps have been run, the works are done and now it's time to get it on.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 142nd Kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasn’t won this race in over eighty years and that’s because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, he’s picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didn’t love. Not sure I’d bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.
2 – Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldn’t find the winners’ circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasn’t done anything to overly impress me. If you’re on social media, however, you’ll know he is a darling of many and sort of the “wise-guy” horse you see every single year so he’ll probably take some money. It’s a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, I’m just not sold he can finish first or second.
3 – Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, I’m most impressed with him because he’s made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. He’s never seven, eight or nine wide. He’s right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. It’s awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: He’s provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. He’s another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he won’t be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.
5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didn’t really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside don’t have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two he’s had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasn’t run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but it’s worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the “deep closers,” he’s the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope I’m right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. He’s never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distance…..on the grass. There aren’t too many I’m completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.
8 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This year’s mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. He’s taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that he’s beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that he’s by Tapit. That’s all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesn’t figure to be much better. I’m tossing him.
9 – Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and he’s never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you don’t attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcher’s record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellano’s will lead to this horse taking some money and he’s an easy toss for me.
10 – Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that he’s won both of his sprints and he’s winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But he’s had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while I’m not saying he’ll be forwardly placed I feel like he’ll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. It’s doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I don’t like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics – take back and make one big run – in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
12 - Tom’s Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racings’ biggest stages. After that, I don’t have a lot of good things to say, if any. He’s won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesn’t want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.
13 – Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as he’s undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. He’s by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. I’m not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if you’re trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. He’s going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. I’m trying to beat him on top but understand if you don’t.
14 – Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didn’t feel like the “real Mohaymen” as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying he’s had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didn’t like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought he’d win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There aren’t many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, he’s my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!
15 – Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. He’s got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldn’t be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesn’t get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If you’re looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in its’ 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horse’s sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
16 – Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didn’t like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didn’t kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. It’s tough to bank on that in here. I’ve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse – break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run – and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I don’t think he’ll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.
17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. He’s already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldn’t be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. He’ll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.
18 – Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldn’t be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so I’m certainly not using him in here.
19 - Brody’s Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. He’s gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I don’t envision that happening here. Post shouldn’t hurt as he’ll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I don’t think he’s good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didn’t have enough points to get in. That’s who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but that’s not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but I’m going to let him beat me.
20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster he’s gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, we’re in for a serious opening half mile or so as he’ll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are “owners,” and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.
21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in he’ll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesn’t bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, he’s a maiden. No thanks.
22 – Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I don’t know where they’ve seen this “stuff” before because I’ve never been a fan but that’s what makes this world go around. I’ll pass
By Anthony Stabile
The preps have been run, the works are done and now it's time to get it on.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 142nd Kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasn’t won this race in over eighty years and that’s because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, he’s picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didn’t love. Not sure I’d bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.
2 – Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldn’t find the winners’ circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasn’t done anything to overly impress me. If you’re on social media, however, you’ll know he is a darling of many and sort of the “wise-guy” horse you see every single year so he’ll probably take some money. It’s a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, I’m just not sold he can finish first or second.
3 – Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, I’m most impressed with him because he’s made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. He’s never seven, eight or nine wide. He’s right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. It’s awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: He’s provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. He’s another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he won’t be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.
5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didn’t really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside don’t have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two he’s had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasn’t run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but it’s worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the “deep closers,” he’s the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope I’m right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. He’s never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distance…..on the grass. There aren’t too many I’m completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.
8 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This year’s mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. He’s taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that he’s beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that he’s by Tapit. That’s all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesn’t figure to be much better. I’m tossing him.
9 – Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and he’s never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you don’t attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcher’s record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellano’s will lead to this horse taking some money and he’s an easy toss for me.
10 – Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that he’s won both of his sprints and he’s winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But he’s had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while I’m not saying he’ll be forwardly placed I feel like he’ll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. It’s doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I don’t like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics – take back and make one big run – in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.
12 - Tom’s Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racings’ biggest stages. After that, I don’t have a lot of good things to say, if any. He’s won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesn’t want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.
13 – Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as he’s undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. He’s by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. I’m not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if you’re trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. He’s going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. I’m trying to beat him on top but understand if you don’t.
14 – Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didn’t feel like the “real Mohaymen” as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying he’s had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didn’t like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought he’d win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There aren’t many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, he’s my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!
15 – Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. He’s got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldn’t be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesn’t get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If you’re looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in its’ 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horse’s sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.
16 – Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didn’t like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didn’t kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. It’s tough to bank on that in here. I’ve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse – break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run – and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I don’t think he’ll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.
17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. He’s already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldn’t be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. He’ll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.
18 – Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldn’t be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so I’m certainly not using him in here.
19 - Brody’s Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. He’s gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I don’t envision that happening here. Post shouldn’t hurt as he’ll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I don’t think he’s good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didn’t have enough points to get in. That’s who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but that’s not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but I’m going to let him beat me.
20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster he’s gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, we’re in for a serious opening half mile or so as he’ll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are “owners,” and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.
21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in he’ll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesn’t bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, he’s a maiden. No thanks.
22 – Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I don’t know where they’ve seen this “stuff” before because I’ve never been a fan but that’s what makes this world go around. I’ll pass
Twenty need-to-know betting notes for the 142nd Kentucky Derby
By ANDREW CALEY
The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby will happen at the fabled Churchill Downs this Saturday and after seeing American Pharoah begin his march to capturing the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, what does this year's batch of thoroughbreds have in store for us?
With 20 horses hitting the posts for this year's Run for the Roses, we give you 20 must-read betting tidbits and notes to help you handicap the "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports."
1. Victor Espinsoza will attempt to become the first jockey to win the Derby in three consecutive years after riding both American Pharoah and California Chrome to vicotry in the previous two years. Espinosza will be riding Whitmore this time around and is currently 20-1 to win the race.
2. Nyquist is currently the 3/1 favorite. The favorite has won the Race for the Roses the last three years in a row. Nyquist will break from the No. 13 post.
3. The No. 13 post has had just four winners in 69 starts in history of the Derby. The latest winner was Smarty Jones in 2004.
4. The favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 54 times. That is just over 38 percent of the time.
5. Nyquist will also be the 27th horse to enter the Kentucky Derby undefeated. Just seven of the previous 26 horses to enter the race undefeated went on to win the Race for the Roses, with the latest being Big Brown in 2008.
6. The long shots to win this year's Derby are Trojan Nation in post 1, Oscar Nominated in post 7, both at 50-1. The last time a horse at 50-1 or greater odds won the Kentucky Derby, was in 2009 when Mine That Bird accomplished the feat. Giacomo also won in 2005 at 50/1. The largest longshot to win the Derby was Donerail at 91/1 in 1913.
7. You also don't want to get drawn to the inside post. Or any of three inside posts for that matter. There have only been four wins from these positions since 1978. Ferdinand won from the No. 1 post in 1986, Affirmed from the No. 2 post in 1978 and Real Quiet from the No. 3 in 1998. That's bad news for Trojan Nation (50/1), Suddebreakingnews (20/1) and Creator (10/1) whom are in the No. 1, 2 and 3 posts respectively.
8. Meanwhile the position you want is the No. 10 spot. It has the highest winning percentage (11.4) since 1930, recording nine winners in 79 starts from that gate. The last winner from the 10 Gate was Giacomo in 2005. And wouldn't you know it, Victor Espinoza riding Whitmore at 20/1 is in that spot.
9. The second best starting gate is the No. 5 hole. It has nine winners in 86 starts since 1930 with the last winner being California Chrome in 2014. This year that spot belongs to Gun Runner, who shows decent value at 10-1.
10. The winning margin has been less than 2 3/4 lengths in the last six Kentucky Derby's and there have been just four victories greater than 4 lengths since 1986. William Hill US has posted the winning margin prop with 1/2 lengths to 1/2 lengths as the favorite to cash at 9/5, followed by 1 3/4 lengths to 3 lengths at 5/2. 10 lengths or more is 100/1.
11. The record for longest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby is eight lengths, accomplished by four horses. Old Rosebud in 1914, Johnstown in 1939, Whirlaway in 1941 and Assault in 1946.
12. Twenty-five horses have won the Kentucky Derby by a margin of a neck or shorter, with nine winning bya nose. William Hill US has a horse to win this year's race by a head or a neck at 7-2 and by a nose at 20-1.
13. Unfortunately history says Mor Spirit, even at just 12-1, won't win the race. He will start from the "cursed" No. 17 position. No horse has ever won the Derby from this position in 37 starts.
14. Aside from the No. 17 position the gate that has gone the longest without crowning a winner is No. 14. The last horse to win from that gate was Carry Back in 1961. Good luck to Mohaymen, who is currently 10-1.
15. Lani (30-1), starting from the No. 8 gate, is the latest foreign horse to Race for the Roses. The last non-North American-raced horse to win the Kentucky Derby, was Bold Forbes in 1976.
16. There will be an expected 127,000 Mint Juleps (the tradition beverage of the race) served at this year's Kentucky Derby.
17. Twenty-two Kentucky Derby winners have won the race in gate-to-wire fashion, with the most recent being War Emblem in 2002.
18. Here is a breakdown of how the track has run over the years: 99 “fast” tracks for the Derby (last was 2015), 11 “good” tracks for the Derby (last was 1990), seven “muddy” tracks for the Derby (last was 1989) and “sloppy” tracks for the Derby (last was 2013).
19. All signs point towards a "fast track" for the 2016 edition of the Derby. With clear skies and temperatures in the low 80's when the horses go to post.
20. Last year's Kentucky Derby set the record for most dollars wagered at $137,892,801.
By ANDREW CALEY
The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby will happen at the fabled Churchill Downs this Saturday and after seeing American Pharoah begin his march to capturing the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, what does this year's batch of thoroughbreds have in store for us?
With 20 horses hitting the posts for this year's Run for the Roses, we give you 20 must-read betting tidbits and notes to help you handicap the "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports."
1. Victor Espinsoza will attempt to become the first jockey to win the Derby in three consecutive years after riding both American Pharoah and California Chrome to vicotry in the previous two years. Espinosza will be riding Whitmore this time around and is currently 20-1 to win the race.
2. Nyquist is currently the 3/1 favorite. The favorite has won the Race for the Roses the last three years in a row. Nyquist will break from the No. 13 post.
3. The No. 13 post has had just four winners in 69 starts in history of the Derby. The latest winner was Smarty Jones in 2004.
4. The favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 54 times. That is just over 38 percent of the time.
5. Nyquist will also be the 27th horse to enter the Kentucky Derby undefeated. Just seven of the previous 26 horses to enter the race undefeated went on to win the Race for the Roses, with the latest being Big Brown in 2008.
6. The long shots to win this year's Derby are Trojan Nation in post 1, Oscar Nominated in post 7, both at 50-1. The last time a horse at 50-1 or greater odds won the Kentucky Derby, was in 2009 when Mine That Bird accomplished the feat. Giacomo also won in 2005 at 50/1. The largest longshot to win the Derby was Donerail at 91/1 in 1913.
7. You also don't want to get drawn to the inside post. Or any of three inside posts for that matter. There have only been four wins from these positions since 1978. Ferdinand won from the No. 1 post in 1986, Affirmed from the No. 2 post in 1978 and Real Quiet from the No. 3 in 1998. That's bad news for Trojan Nation (50/1), Suddebreakingnews (20/1) and Creator (10/1) whom are in the No. 1, 2 and 3 posts respectively.
8. Meanwhile the position you want is the No. 10 spot. It has the highest winning percentage (11.4) since 1930, recording nine winners in 79 starts from that gate. The last winner from the 10 Gate was Giacomo in 2005. And wouldn't you know it, Victor Espinoza riding Whitmore at 20/1 is in that spot.
9. The second best starting gate is the No. 5 hole. It has nine winners in 86 starts since 1930 with the last winner being California Chrome in 2014. This year that spot belongs to Gun Runner, who shows decent value at 10-1.
10. The winning margin has been less than 2 3/4 lengths in the last six Kentucky Derby's and there have been just four victories greater than 4 lengths since 1986. William Hill US has posted the winning margin prop with 1/2 lengths to 1/2 lengths as the favorite to cash at 9/5, followed by 1 3/4 lengths to 3 lengths at 5/2. 10 lengths or more is 100/1.
11. The record for longest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby is eight lengths, accomplished by four horses. Old Rosebud in 1914, Johnstown in 1939, Whirlaway in 1941 and Assault in 1946.
12. Twenty-five horses have won the Kentucky Derby by a margin of a neck or shorter, with nine winning bya nose. William Hill US has a horse to win this year's race by a head or a neck at 7-2 and by a nose at 20-1.
13. Unfortunately history says Mor Spirit, even at just 12-1, won't win the race. He will start from the "cursed" No. 17 position. No horse has ever won the Derby from this position in 37 starts.
14. Aside from the No. 17 position the gate that has gone the longest without crowning a winner is No. 14. The last horse to win from that gate was Carry Back in 1961. Good luck to Mohaymen, who is currently 10-1.
15. Lani (30-1), starting from the No. 8 gate, is the latest foreign horse to Race for the Roses. The last non-North American-raced horse to win the Kentucky Derby, was Bold Forbes in 1976.
16. There will be an expected 127,000 Mint Juleps (the tradition beverage of the race) served at this year's Kentucky Derby.
17. Twenty-two Kentucky Derby winners have won the race in gate-to-wire fashion, with the most recent being War Emblem in 2002.
18. Here is a breakdown of how the track has run over the years: 99 “fast” tracks for the Derby (last was 2015), 11 “good” tracks for the Derby (last was 1990), seven “muddy” tracks for the Derby (last was 1989) and “sloppy” tracks for the Derby (last was 2013).
19. All signs point towards a "fast track" for the 2016 edition of the Derby. With clear skies and temperatures in the low 80's when the horses go to post.
20. Last year's Kentucky Derby set the record for most dollars wagered at $137,892,801.
Marco D'Angelo
Analysis:
14 Mohaymen – Top Choice
Mohaymen has run one bad race in his career and that was his last race. Mohaymen raced on a wet track for the first time in his career that day and was caught wide the entire race. If we throw out the Florida Derby you have to consider this horse as he has the perfect style to Win the Derby. He has tactical speed to sit in the perfect stalking position in the second group of horses right off the pacesetters. Being in that stalking position he won’t have to worry about traffic problems like the deep closers in this race may have to deal with. We will be getting a great price because the money will be on Nyquist.
Mohaymen is our Top Choice and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
6 My Man Sam – Longshot Horse
Every year because of the inflated wagering pools I bet 2 horses WPS one horse is my top choice and the other is my Longshot horse. I bet the longshot for half of the amount as I do my Top Choice. My Man Sam is a lightly raced horse with only 4 starts and has license to make a big jump in improvement today. Horses that have 5 or less starts usually haven’t peaked yet and are capable of making a big jump up from one race to the next. I believe My Man Sam is sitting on a big race as I like the way he has progressed in his short career. Chad Brown has taken his time with this colt and in his final prep race he had no shot with the trip he had in Bluegrass. My Man Sam drew PP 14 in a 14 horse field. They went straight to the back of the pack with him and never made a move until coming off the final turn. My Man Sam was flat out flying rallying from 14[SUP]th[/SUP] to 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and closing fast. This was a great set up race for him leading into the derby. He also gets regular Jockey Ortiz back up for this one.
My Man Sam is our Longshot and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
Exacta Wagers Total Bet = $110
$2 Exacta Box 2-6-11-13-14 = $40
$6 Exacta 14 with 2-6-11-13-17 = $30
$3 Exacta 2-6-11-13-17 with 14 = $15
$3 Exacta 6 with 2-11-13-14-17 = $15
$2 Exacta 2-11-13-14-17 with 6 = $10
Trifecta Wagers Total Bet = $200
$1 Trifecta 2-6-11-13-14- with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-4-5-6-11-13-14-17-20 = $140
$1 Trifecta 6-13-14 with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-5-6-11-13-14-17 = $60
Analysis:
14 Mohaymen – Top Choice
Mohaymen has run one bad race in his career and that was his last race. Mohaymen raced on a wet track for the first time in his career that day and was caught wide the entire race. If we throw out the Florida Derby you have to consider this horse as he has the perfect style to Win the Derby. He has tactical speed to sit in the perfect stalking position in the second group of horses right off the pacesetters. Being in that stalking position he won’t have to worry about traffic problems like the deep closers in this race may have to deal with. We will be getting a great price because the money will be on Nyquist.
Mohaymen is our Top Choice and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
6 My Man Sam – Longshot Horse
Every year because of the inflated wagering pools I bet 2 horses WPS one horse is my top choice and the other is my Longshot horse. I bet the longshot for half of the amount as I do my Top Choice. My Man Sam is a lightly raced horse with only 4 starts and has license to make a big jump in improvement today. Horses that have 5 or less starts usually haven’t peaked yet and are capable of making a big jump up from one race to the next. I believe My Man Sam is sitting on a big race as I like the way he has progressed in his short career. Chad Brown has taken his time with this colt and in his final prep race he had no shot with the trip he had in Bluegrass. My Man Sam drew PP 14 in a 14 horse field. They went straight to the back of the pack with him and never made a move until coming off the final turn. My Man Sam was flat out flying rallying from 14[SUP]th[/SUP] to 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and closing fast. This was a great set up race for him leading into the derby. He also gets regular Jockey Ortiz back up for this one.
My Man Sam is our Longshot and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
Exacta Wagers Total Bet = $110
$2 Exacta Box 2-6-11-13-14 = $40
$6 Exacta 14 with 2-6-11-13-17 = $30
$3 Exacta 2-6-11-13-17 with 14 = $15
$3 Exacta 6 with 2-11-13-14-17 = $15
$2 Exacta 2-11-13-14-17 with 6 = $10
Trifecta Wagers Total Bet = $200
$1 Trifecta 2-6-11-13-14- with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-4-5-6-11-13-14-17-20 = $140
$1 Trifecta 6-13-14 with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-5-6-11-13-14-17 = $60
