The Ides of March

Zapster · Mar 15, 2004

Three plays for tonight:

Phoenix UNDER 187.5 (Play)
San Antonio OVER 177.5 (Solid)
Orlando UNDER 206 (Play)

I have departed from my 4 to 20 unit play format and am using a 4 tier rating system. Still not sure how the tier will translate into units, but the games have been hitting well enough to inspire me to share them here. The 4 tiers are (from weakest to strongest): pick, play, solid and biggie. "Biggie" would be the equivilent of what I used to call 15-20 unit plays. "Solid" means my calculated total differs from the line by 6 or more points. "Play" means that my alternative systems and my main system all agree and "pick" means my main system likes the game but one or more of my alternatate systems disagrees. By the way all systems must agree in order for the game to be "biggie" or "solid."

So there you have it.....for those of you who kept reading past the listing of the plays, I hope it wasn't TOO boring. Hopefully I can recapture in late season some of what I had in early season. As they say in the backgammon world....."winning is more fun."

SportSavant · Mar 15, 2004

Zap, why dont you consider a % system....

Example you could rate your plays:
1%
1.5%
2%

Three different categories, representing percentage of bankroll, or Percentege of loss tolerance. Just a suggestion but something along those lines can eliminate the need for units altogether.

Zapster · Mar 15, 2004

SpoSav........

I've been so busy trying to re-educate myself in trying to cap these games I haven't had time to try to optimize the proportions of plays.

Fortunately I have all of my data since the last week of February so I can run some permutations and see which one works the best.

Like you though, I work full time....and on top of that I am a single dad....so carving out the time (and focus) to do this is easier said than done. I am (once again) confident that these picks (in the long run) will most likely be in the mid to upper 50's, so I am comfortable posting them again.....and if that is the case, most money management systems will work fine.

When I do come up with an optimal one though, I will be sure to post it.

nytewalker · Mar 15, 2004

zap
did u see the total dropped from 177.5 to 175 at SBG
i wonder why?

nyte

Zapster · Mar 15, 2004

WoW....they don't call it the Ides of Mach for nothing !!

I lose both under because the games go to OT and I lose the over by 1/2 point !!

SportSavant · Mar 15, 2004

sorrz zap, looks like my bad luck is contagious...I hit both my "thread plays" But I needed Lakers under 206.5 & under 110.5....

Plus did you see the bullshit that happened to me that I wrote about in Alan Palmers thread...