The Good ol' Sagarin SOS Bowl System

[doyboy408]

I remember following this system a few years back...

SOS System:
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse (unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even worse than theirs.)

Here are the games that meet the system:
(RANK)/TEAM/[STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE]
The team in BOLD is the pick.

(32)Utah[26] vs. (47)Colorado State[102]
(50)BYU[71] vs. (42)Memphis[126]
(76)Illinois[43] vs. (41)Louisiana Tech[78]
(61)NC State[65] vs. (55)UCF[116]
(51)Cincinnati[96] vs. (52)Virginia Tech[48]
(28)Arizona State[38] vs. (45)Duke[81]
(43)Boston College[56] vs. (56)Penn State[61]
(26)Nebraska[62] vs. (18)USC[28]
(33)Boise State[72] vs. (30)Arizona[30]
(10)Michigan State[60] vs. (8)Baylor[58]

 

[sdf]

thanks. we have a thread on this already somewhere down below this one with discussion. looks like we match up on the picks

 

[Kaboom]

Did someone run this for last 2 years ??? Just curious , record wise ???

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Thanks for putting this together........

 

[sparticus]

Bump!

 

[indiana]

DB/408..........thank you for the info here..........good luck with the bowl season........indy

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i personally like the idea of having a new thread for this year but keeping the old thread too..... threads that aren't just people's semi-random picks (including my own) are always appreciated

 

[TheComputerGroup]

1-1 so far, correct? Thanks to Byu's defense.......but I did enjoy the helmet to head swings midfield after the game......smh.

 

[doyboy408]

(1-1)
(32)Utah-3[26] vs. (47)Colorado State[102] WIN
(50)BYU+1.5[71] vs. (42)Memphis[126] LOSE

 

[coffeetea]

I remember following this system a few years back...

SOS System:
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse (unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even worse than theirs.)

Here are the games that meet the system:
(RANK)/TEAM/[STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE]
The team in BOLD is the pick.

(32)Utah[26] vs. (47)Colorado State[102]
(50)BYU[71] vs. (42)Memphis[126]
(76)Illinois[43] vs. (41)Louisiana Tech[78]
(61)NC State[65] vs. (55)UCF[116]
(51)Cincinnati[96] vs. (52)Virginia Tech[48]
(28)Arizona State[38] vs. (45)Duke[81]
(43)Boston College[56] vs. (56)Penn State[61]
(26)Nebraska[62] vs. (18)USC[28]
(33)Boise State[72] vs. (30)Arizona[30]
(10)Michigan State[60] vs. (8)Baylor[58]

Browsing around the CFB forum and came upon this - I have a question why is Illinois a pick since they are not in the top 60 at 76 they are not even borderline pick

GL ALL

 

[dtmad]

La Tech is the go against team

 

[coffeetea]

La Tech is the go against team

Why - Illinois doesn't fit into the system of top 60 teams - they are # 76 so should be automatically eliminated -

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree on Illlinois, and they are the only team that I did not play a samll wager on just for the he** of it and to track the System, which has had some very good results.

 

[dtmad]

Go AGAINST a top 60 team (La tech, #41) whose SOS rating (#78) is worse than #60 unless playing a team whose SOS is worse than theirs. Illinois has a better SOS. Go against La Tech. I can't explain it any better.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i did a fairly quick and dirty on 2012 bowl season... and here's what i came up with. and it's very very interesting although not overall profitable.

there were i think 25 teams that qualified and played in a bowl. 2 played each other so 23 ATS net wins and losses

for the first 12 teams i wrote down (so 12 highest ranked teams that had 60 or worse SOS) they were 10-2 (i.e. sagarin's system worked brutally badly)... the two losses were non-bcs. not completely sure what's non-BCS these days but had at least two ATS wins.

for the next 11 teams, they went 1-10 (sagarin's system worked like a charm)..... fyi, only BCSers were rutgers and NCS. also navy.... lone win was nevada.

a few things. ohio and LM played each other. LM i think was the play but game ended in PUSH anyway. EDIT: i forget which was the play but it was PUSH anyway.

couldn't find OHS, LT, LL, SMU, Ball, MTSU all of which could have gone to bowl... OHS is big omission. on probation? i looked and looked and couldn't find them in game.

anyway, mixed results.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, i did the 2013 bowl season now too..... again not too impressive at the very basic level but alot of interesting stuff when you drill down.

the basic teams are 12-12-1...... but 4 bowl games had both teams on list. the team with the better SOS went 3-1. so i have the system at 11-9-1 when you take out the 4-4 and replace it with 3-1.

again the split between top of the list and bottom of the list is the same. the first 16 teams are 9-6-1. the last 9 are 3-6... again non-bcs not very good.

for simplicity. the last 9 teams are all non-BCS except for maryland. so these teams went 3-6 (fyi, maryland was a L).

if i go up 9 more teams, i get 4-5 with a push. again not totally sure what's non-bcs these days. but i think they are all non-bcs. i will note that navy, an independent, is a W....

then the top tier of 7 teams is 5-2.... losses are BgSU and FSU. wins are louisville, cf, duke, utah state, nc.

so for 2013 and 2012, non-bcs teams look really really bad.... and it's somewhat subjective but you might want to come up with some rule to take marshall off the list (very powerful team last year and this year)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

sorry, maybe i misunderstand the system but i see a ton of teams this year.

here's my list (all the teams. haven't weeded out teams playing each other of which there's tons)

navy
sdsu
nill
marshall
utst
utah? i don't remember writing that one. have to double=check
nevada
LL
Utep
BYU
WM
AF
memphis
sala -how are they in a bowl game with a losing record and sunbelt?
bg
ecu
toledo
ark st
fresno
wk
rice
CM
LT
boise
cincy
duke
bc
psu
nebraska

i count that as about 30 teams...... i will note by BCS conference: ACC (3 duke, bc, ncs), b10 (2 nebraska, penn state), b12 (zero), SEC (zero), pac12 (1 utah)...

is AAC bcs? anyway, i have them at 4 or 5 (memphis, cincy, cf, ecu, houston????)

so 6 big bcs schools. none of them very good...... 24 non-bcs or AAC......

play against anything but better teams in bcs conferences?????

 

[dtmad]

ok, i did the 2013 bowl season now too..... again not too impressive at the very basic level but alot of interesting stuff when you drill down.

the basic teams are 12-12-1...... but 4 bowl games had both teams on list. the team with the better SOS went 3-1. so i have the system at 11-9-1 when you take out the 4-4 and replace it with 3-1.

again the split between top of the list and bottom of the list is the same. the first 16 teams are 9-6-1. the last 9 are 3-6... again non-bcs not very good.

for simplicity. the last 9 teams are all non-BCS except for maryland. so these teams went 3-6 (fyi, maryland was a L).

if i go up 9 more teams, i get 4-5 with a push. again not totally sure what's non-bcs these days. but i think they are all non-bcs. i will note that navy, an independent, is a W....

then the top tier of 7 teams is 5-2.... losses are BgSU and FSU. wins are louisville, cf, duke, utah state, nc.

so for 2013 and 2012, non-bcs teams look really really bad.... and it's somewhat subjective but you might want to come up with some rule to take marshall off the list (very powerful team last year and this year)

Impossible for two teams playing each other to both qualify.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Impossible for two teams playing each other to both qualify.

I meant that i just looked up all teams with Sos of 60 or worse. looked up their bowl records. and then adjusted for the teams playing each other at the end.

i could have looked up all the SoS teams, figured out which teams were the play and did the record.

i just did it in a different order...... same end result

tons and tons of SoS 60 teams play each other this year.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

looking at my chicken scratch when i came up with this year's list.... utah i think is UTEP. so just eliminate Utah. and UTEP was already on the list.