The post position draw for the 2016 Kentucky Derby will begin at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday. You can watch as Derby-favorite Nyquist and his fellow competitors are assigned which gate they'll start in by tuning into NBCSN or streaming it online with NBC Sports Live Extra.Does post position matter at the Kentucky Derby? That's a more difficult question to answer than you might think.
Since Churchill Downs instituted the starting gate in 1930, one of the best spots to draw was No. 1, along the rail, Christina Moore recently showed at America's Best Racing. The winning horse has broke from there 9.3 percent of the time, making it the third-best gate.
Sounds great. Until you look at more recent data. The winning horse hasn't come out of the first gate since Ferdinand in 1986. You probably don't want to start anywhere on the inside at all, really. The second spot, with seven winners in 86 years, hasn't produced one since Affirmed in 1978. For the third post, you have to go back to Real Quiet in 1998. Horses too far to the inside can be squeezed and face a more physically and mentally taxing race.
Horses from the outside -- in the auxiliary gate, 15-20 -- appear to face the difficult task of running the farthest distance, but not being in the crush at the rail has been beneficial, especially recently.
So where do you want to draw?
According to Moore, the fifth spot is a good one. More than 10 percent of winners broke from there since 1930 and an astounding 17.6 percent since 1999. The 15th -- where American Pharoah began last year -- and 16th spots have also both been strong recently, with three winners each since 1999. So ideally, you'd like to be somewhere in the middle there.
The morning-line odds will be announced following the draw. Right now, Florida Derby winner Nyquist is the betting favorite at around 3/1, while Mohaymen and Santa Anita winner Exaggerator round out the top three at near 4/1 and 6/1, respectively.
Since Churchill Downs instituted the starting gate in 1930, one of the best spots to draw was No. 1, along the rail, Christina Moore recently showed at America's Best Racing. The winning horse has broke from there 9.3 percent of the time, making it the third-best gate.
Sounds great. Until you look at more recent data. The winning horse hasn't come out of the first gate since Ferdinand in 1986. You probably don't want to start anywhere on the inside at all, really. The second spot, with seven winners in 86 years, hasn't produced one since Affirmed in 1978. For the third post, you have to go back to Real Quiet in 1998. Horses too far to the inside can be squeezed and face a more physically and mentally taxing race.
Horses from the outside -- in the auxiliary gate, 15-20 -- appear to face the difficult task of running the farthest distance, but not being in the crush at the rail has been beneficial, especially recently.
So where do you want to draw?
According to Moore, the fifth spot is a good one. More than 10 percent of winners broke from there since 1930 and an astounding 17.6 percent since 1999. The 15th -- where American Pharoah began last year -- and 16th spots have also both been strong recently, with three winners each since 1999. So ideally, you'd like to be somewhere in the middle there.
The morning-line odds will be announced following the draw. Right now, Florida Derby winner Nyquist is the betting favorite at around 3/1, while Mohaymen and Santa Anita winner Exaggerator round out the top three at near 4/1 and 6/1, respectively.
