The falling price of oil

[Willie99]

what's causing it? nobody can be certain, but we can address the two biggest beliefs / myths floating around out there.

1) Was it President Bush removing executive restrictions on offshore drilling? plausible.

Since the price started to drop the day he removed such restrictions, proving the commitment to tap our own resources is real. If speculation is a driving force (I believe it is part of the equation), long term speculators can't be happy about the real potential for increased supply. I've said many times that prices would drop as soon as we talk about tapping our own reserves.

2) Was it concerns about a recession?

Is news about a sluggish economy new? The individuals that believe it's because of poor economic news have been emphasizing bad economic news for a long time now. The markets are miles ahead of the news.

I especially love the suggestion that the Treasury Secretary saying there was inflationary pressures hurting the economy that brought the price down. Do you think traders didn't know rising energy prices would cause inflation? Is that really what people were thinking?

The President's actions? possible

Bad economic news? not a chance in hell

 

[DarrylParsons]

How about lower consumption by Euros and Americans?

 

[Brooklynbomber]

willie99 how about:

1) $145 oil was/is seriously fucking things up, needed to be cut down at all costs. Let's float a story in our media placing the blame on the "speculators". Than, using that momentum we will pass legislation, relying on the Democratic controlled Congress, to place unprecedented restrictions amongst said "speculators in our controlled COMEX markets. Also we will use "FED" Repos to go short ourselves

2) There were A TON of $130 oil calls that were big time in the money...........the writers of those calls were JPM....aka the FED themselves.

anyways that's what is going on....still a $12 war premium, maybe $3 "speculator" premium. That said, depends on a number of different vairiables, but the more they artificially take it down, the more it will bounce back, ala a coiled spring.

you ain't heard the last of this oil bull in 2008 just yet

 

[PatPatriot]

what's causing it? nobody can be certain, but we can address the two biggest beliefs / myths floating around out there.

But whats happening for sure is that your not hearing about it.

I hope some of you dopes start paying attention to what you DON'T hear from the left wing media.

 

[Willie99]

How about lower consumption by Euros and Americans?

Well, that didn't just start on the day the price starting dropping, but that's certainly a factor.

 

[Willie99]

Jdog, I agree there was a big run up, but most of the predictions were that oil was going higher still, and very few expected such a rapid decline.

I also agree it can increase again.

As for a "war premium", I'm not so sure about that. Production from the ME has not decreased during this run up, but world wide demand is jumping.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

stop printing money at an unprecedented YOY pace of 18% and that solves half the problemhno:

 

[tiznow]

Bad economic news? not a chance in hell

winna winna chicken dinna :nohead:

well to be fair not the bad economic news itself

instead the lower consumption that comes along with both higher prices and a shitty economy

gas consumption in US down 13 weeks in a row yoy

 

[Willie99]

So Tiz, oil traders just didn't realize that dramatically higher gas and energy prices would cause inflationary pressures and hurt the economy until last week?

I just don't see that as the cause, I can't see it as the cause. Traders are miles ahead of the "economic views" of the day.

 

[tiznow]

semgroup (they were heavy short) near bankrupcy could have potentially been a catalyst too

who knows everybody always looking for a reason

all i do know is if you see 50 dollar oil anytime soon its cause we are in a global depression in which people are standing in line at soup kitchens and living on the streets.....rather than buying stuff and consuming gas.....probably not happening but just making a point alot of people miss about oil.....

lower oil won't be bullish over the long haul like everybody thinks....

high oil means consumption is high so consumption of goods within the economy is high

plus all the commodity related companies that make up the SPX and many other world economies like canada, brazil, mexico, venezula, aussie depend on the commodity boom

 

[Willie99]

Actually Tiz, while the war was being mismanaged and the economy was growing and humming along at full employment, gas prices were increasing at a more moderate rate.

When the surge stabilized the Middle East and the economy started to slow, the price of oil skyrocketed. It seems to me the price of oil has had an inverse relationship with the variables most people like to credit for the change in prices.

Anyhow, I know there are scores of variables in play. IMHO, it's not the economy and it's not the war that are the driving force at this time, because that would mean the price is ass backwards. You would also have to believe traders lack foresight, which is something they absolutely rely upon for survival. I do believe both variables will have some long term influence, just not controlling influence.

 

[seelfin22]

You really need to watch his videos

Energy non Crisis part 1 of 8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk

Energy non Crisis book

http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis.html

Lindsay Williams "Syndrome of Control"

Part 1/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j5_2LMZ5vU

Part 2/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrek7t_E ... re=related

Part 3/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sveia2QQ ... re=related

Part 4/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5AynkXe ... re=related

Part 5/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfTQwZrh ... re=related

Part 6/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO43TvGO ... re=related

Part 7/7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEUuSDMK ... re=related

WE'RE GONNA BOMB IRAN, & THERES NOTHING YOU CAN DO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIPART47 ... re=related

PREPARE FOR THE COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au0Y3TDs ... re=related

 

[Willie99]

Put something in words please. Tell us where "you" stand and why.

 

[tiznow]

Actually Tiz, while the war was being mismanaged and the economy was growing and humming along at full employment, gas prices were increasing at a more moderate rate.

When the surge stabilized the Middle East and the economy started to slow, the price of oil skyrocketed. It seems to me the price of oil has had an inverse relationship with the variables most people like to credit for the change in prices.

Anyhow, I know there are scores of variables in play. IMHO, it's not the economy and it's not the war that are the driving force at this time, because that would mean the price is ass backwards. You would also have to believe traders lack foresight, which is something they absolutely rely upon for survival. I do believe both variables will have some long term influence, just not controlling influence.

helicopter ben cut interest rates, bailed out people left and right.....oil recent run was an inflation hedge more than anything

plus the jews potential bombing of iran and such didn't help matters...seems like that sentiment is slowly wearing away now

 

[random1323]

The falling price of the ridiculously over priced oil.

 

[Willie99]

The falling price of the ridiculously over priced oil.

OK, that too is part of the equation, IMHO.

However, some were calling for as much as $ 300 per barrel.

 

[Willie99]

Two more variables Tiz that influence the price.

Geez, every time that bozo in Iran threatens somebody the price goes up, same thing with Chavez.

 

[tiznow]

hey willie when you feeling giddy again be sure to post a when will stock market be black in 2008 tread so i know to flip back to my shorts

thanks in advance

sorry can't help myself, welcome back

:toast:

 

[Willie99]

Come on Tiz, you gotta know by now I'm not a short term guy. I truly do not even pay attention to the DOW, or the day to day rumblings of experts that probably understand about as much of this stuff as you or I.

Everything you see today, we've already survived it and prospered after it. Chit man, I even survived a 20% decline in one fuckin day man.

You've got just over three months my teddy bear friend, as soon as the election is over and economic coverage regains a little balance, the lifetime of growth continues.

 

[tiznow]

as soon as election is over LMAO

obama yo mama set to play the roll of FDR

you are right we will live to see another day either way

but dow sub 10000 coming with little doubt