I wrote this on my blog, HTTP://www.FSUncensored.blogspot.com/ Hinesward also contributes (shocker!) http://fsuncensored.blogspot.com/2008/07/weatherford-report.html
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Weatherford Report
As reported yesterday on Tomahawknation, Drew Weatherford is slated to start for FSU according to Bobby Bowden.This article is not about whether Jimbo Fisher or Bobby Bowden will name the starting quarterback for Florida State.Instead, let us delve into the qualifications of the incumbent.
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; width: 462pt; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="616"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YR
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> GS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ATT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> COM
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YDS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> RAT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ACCRN
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘07
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 318
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 181
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 56.9
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2049
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 118.5
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9TH
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘06
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 318
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 177
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 55.7
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2154
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.8
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 12
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 11
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.5%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 118.1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 7TH
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘05
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 13
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 469
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 276
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 58.5
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3220
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.8
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 18
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 18
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 121.3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 8TH
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> First, realize that 32 starts is an enormous body of evidence for a college quarterback. Weatherford is in the top 2% of starters nationally in starts.I sometimes hesitate to analyze college players because of their inherently small sample sets.Weatherford is the exception because of his extensive body of work.
What can we learn from this table?
Weatherford has never been rated in the top half of the ACC (His highest finish is 7<sup>th</sup>). Usually with a 3 or 4 year starting quarterback one would expect to see improvement. With Weatherford, however, we see consistency: consistently below average quarterbacking. From averaging an interception a game (.97), to having his junior year touchdown total (9) equal half of his total when he was a freshman (18).
Note, however, that I said he failed to improve and that he was consistently below average. I did not say that he hasn’t changed. He has changed. Last season, he stopped taking risks. Not just large risks or unwise risks, but rather, any risk at all. To apply the Drew Weatherford strategy in real life would be avoid going through a green light, or to not venture outside when it is overcast on the off chance it might rain. Notice how both of these analogies severely restrict movement. The same can be said of Weatherford’s stewardship of the Seminole offense. Whether the decision to avoid risk was conscious is not for this article. We aren’t psychologists and don’t pretend to be.
How do we know that Weatherford changed his approach?
Let’s go to his performance (aka the results). Scroll up to the chart. This is where the all important YPA (Yards per Attempt) comes in. If you are unfamiliar with YPA, google it. YPA is an extremely important indicator of quarterback success and strongly correlates to a successful running game. Teams with high Yards per Attempts force defenses to play fewer men close to the line of scrimmage and thus enjoy more space for their running game.
Weatherford’s YPA was 6.8 in both ’05 and ’06. Last year, however, it dropped to a ridiculous 6.4. Putting this in perspective, his 6.8 number was good for 6<sup>th</sup> in the ACC over the past 2 years. Last year’s 6.4 YPA placed him 10<sup>th</sup>, behind the likes of TJ Yates, Thaddeus Lewis, Kyle Wright, and Chris Turner. Yards per attempt measures the expected success a team will have when they drop back to throw. Last year with Weatherford under center, FSU fans could expect to be in the bottom quarter of the ACC.
But maybe the ACC just has an unusual affinity for gaining yards on pass plays?
Let’s see where his performance would rank in the other 5 BCS conferences to make sure we don’t have an anomaly in the ACC..
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Conf
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Weatherford’s 6.4 Yards Per Attempt Rank
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ACC
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10<sup>th</sup> (Bottom quarter)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> SEC
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10<sup>th</sup> (Bottom quarter)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 20%)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big 12
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 1/3<sup>rd</sup>)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Pac 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 20%)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big East
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Last. 8<sup>th</sup> of 8. (7<sup>th</sup> if P. Bostich included)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Well, okay, so the performance would be poor in any conference and absolutely terrible for a 22 year old 3<sup>rd</sup> year starter.
Did Weatherford choose to throw less intermediate and deep routes and thus drop his YPA?
He did get a new offensive coordinator last year. Could it be that Jimbo hates the deep or intermediate route? Uh, no. The YPA’s of Jimbo’s QB’s for the last 3 years he was at LSU: 9.2 (’06), 7.9 (’05), 7.8 (’04). Let’s go ahead and say that Jimbo didn’t decide to suddenly call 23% shorter routes (throwing out the 9.2 year, since that was JaMarcus Russell throwing to stud wideouts, his 6.4 YPA is 23% less than the 7.85YPA Jimbo’s QB’s had in ’04 and ’05 at LSU.) We can definitively say that it wasn’t Jimbo. Look at some youtube video’s of LSU from ’04-’06 and you will see that Jimbo lived off the 15 yard Out, 18 yard square-in, and the seam route. In FSU’s offense these passes are not thrown because Weatherford can’t hit them consistently enough for them to be productive. This still looks like #11’s choice.
Are the stats inflated because of high sack totals?
NO. FSU qb’s took the least sacks among ACC teams in ’07 (22 sacks). Compare that to Virginia Tech, whose QB’s were sacked 54 times yet still posted a 7.6 average.
What could have caused this dramatic change in approach? Several theories work here.
“He was tired of being hit due to a poor offensive line.”
Weatherford has a history of happy feet in the pocket and may have decided to take the easy way out to save his body. Intense competition from Xavier Lee put a premium on Weatherford’s health. One tweak of the leg and he might have waived goodbye to his job. This theory has some merit, but Weatherford has always proven to be a tough kid. He may have a total lack of talent, but he is totally willing to play hurt and has done so several times.
“He is from the Tampa area and wanted to play Dilfer (Ravens edition ) & Brad Johnson (Bucs Edition) football.”
This theory has some merit. Anyone who watches ESPN long enough to get through the Brett Farve will hear the experts extol the virtues of playing low-risk turnover free football. Limiting turnovers at any level is important. Unfortunately, turnovers are much more costly in the NFL due to the conservative nature of play and the drastic change in field position they cause. In college football, turnovers are less important due to the wide open nature of the game. Teams go up and down the field with greater ease in college than the pro’s. While Weatherford may have seen two quarterbacks win super bowls playing coward football during his formative years (He would have been in his late teens when the Ravens and Bucs won), adapting this approach to college football is unwise. An approach should not be overhauled with the goal of limiting turnovers in mind if the result is to stifle the offense. While his interceptions did decrease from 11 to 3, his TD’s also decreased significantly.
Further, Weatherford’s 1% Interception rate is not sustainable over multiple seasons. We have yet to find a passer who had consecutive seasons under 1.75% as a staring quarterback with at least 310 attempts. Essentially, his approach was unwise and lucky. Employed in a similar fashion this year, one could expect a similar number of TD’s coupled with a significant uptick in interceptions.
The final likely reason Weatherford stayed on 12 with the dealer showing 8 is talent.
Over 32 games, we have watched Weatherford throw the football. 1105 passes in all. Scouts have as well. Unfortunately, over that many passes, flaws don’t just come to light, they glow. Every single coach in the ACC has now noticed #11’s weakness. What is that weakness?
Drew Weatherford is one of the worst in terms of arm strength among non-option quarterbacks in the BCS. There are some thows most college quarterbacks cannot make. Then there are the throws Weatherford has been unable to complete over 1105 passes. If Weatherford wants to find the first coach to expose this glaring weakness, he can walk directly to the defensive coaches office and speak with none other than FSU linebackers coach Chuck Amato.
Why coach Amato?Because as the defensive minded head coach of North Carolina state, Amato gave the rest of the ACC the book on Weatherford.Up until the NC State game of ’05, #11 posted decent YPA’s, especially when you consider he was making the first few starts of his career.Fast forward to NC State in ’05 and watch FSU lose 15-20.Look closer though, at the way NC state played him and the resulting trends the game set off.
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Opponent (2005)
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Weatherford’s YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> FSU Yards per Carry
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> First 8 opponents
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 7.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> NC State
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4.7
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> @ Clemson
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4.3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.2
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> @ UF
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.8
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> VT
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2.0
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Penn State
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.0
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Avg of Last 5 games
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 5.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> After Amato
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> -2.0 YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> -2.0 YPC.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This isn’t difficult to tell.Once Chuck Amato laid down the plans on how to dominate Weatherford, every team with average or above average personnel followed.How did this work and what was this Magical plan, and why did it also kill the running game?
I’m not going to fully explain it here because it wouldn’t make sense to the majority of readers. Essentially what he did was play press man, play the safeties very close to the line, and dare the quarterback with the cap-gun arm to throw an accurate pass of over 10 yards. Knowing that he is totally incapable of consistently executing those passes helped his plan. Amato knew. His plan worked on many levels. First, by having so many guys close to the line of scrimmage, he forced Weatherford read more players for a short pass route than he would normally need to do. Second, he let his secondary bait Weatherford into interceptions. Since Weatherford couldn’t zip the ball downfield, his corners and safeties had ample recovery time to make the interception. #11 saw that his wide receivers were open on their intermediate out routes and deep in-cuts, but he couldn’t deliver the ball to them on a consistent basis due to his considerable physical limitations. When Weatherford attempted to make the throws, he was intercepted 3 times. Third, with so many men close to the line of scrimmage, NC State’s players were able to tackle the receiver as soon as Weatherford delivered the short pass. On the same token, having so many men in the “box” completely shut down the running game (23 rushes for 43 yards.) By daring the QB to do something he could not do, Amato was able to dominate the FSU running game and effectively limit whatever semblance of a passing game remained.
A quick historical note-- Some will claim that Randy Shannon, Miami’s current head coach who was Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2005, really laid the plan. That is true in part, but most other teams believed that they would be unable to duplicate Miami’s success. Amato took Miami’s plan, used it with decent but not great athletes (the team had excellent defensive linemen and little else), and proved that it could work.
After the NC State game, the QB finished the season throwing by 4 Touchdowns and 8 interceptions, after throwing for 14 Touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the first 8 games. This strategy has been repeated against Weatherford in the 24 games since FSU lost to NC State in 2005 with varying levels of success. Generally, however, teams with average or better athletes have been able to duplicate the success using the Amato plan and teams with terrible personnel have not been able to produce the same level of success. This is troubling and reveals a greater trend:
Weatherford beats up on bad teams and struggles mightily against everyone else.
Since the NC State game of 2005, Weatherford started 24 games for FSU. 6 of those games were against Non-BCS conference teams and Duke. The remaining 18 show a disgusting record of ineptitude. Let’s go to the Chart:
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Since the “Amato Game”
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ATT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> COMP
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YDS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">W-L RECORD
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Vs. 18 BCs Opponents
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 650
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 338
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> .52
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4000
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.15
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 14
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 20
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">6-12
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Vs. 6 Non-BCS & Duke
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 171
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 116
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> .68
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1374
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 8.04
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 11
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">6-0
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> I don’t even need to comment on this.That is horrific.It is an absolute testament to the quality of FSU’s skill position players and defense that they have had a .500 record in ACC play under the stewardship of Drew Weatherford.
While some (including # 11) are quick to cite the below average offensive line, this excuse fails to account for the above failures. The offensive line has only allowed 26 sacks on average, per year, under Weatherford’s tenure. This is a very good number. Quarterbacks deal with shaky line play in different ways. Some are able to make quick and intelligent reads and deliver the ball. Others are able to actually exploit the massive holes the defense gives them. Finally, others escape the pocket and run. Since he doesn’t read defenses exceptionally well, is unable to make throws that require an above average difficulty level, and is essentially immobile (182 career rushes for -61 yards), Weatherford does none of these things but rather has elected to deliver the ball prematurely. Note that he is not selecting the high percentage pass, but rather the first available option. We find further evidence of this by looking at his consistently average completion percentage (see first chart). If he elected to be smarter with the ball and take only the high percentage passes, as some suggested was the case, then that fact would be evidenced in his performance. As the first chart shows, upon electing to stop taking any risk, Weatherford did not achieve a spike in completion percentage. Rather, he “achieved” a miniscule 1.25% bump. The bottom line is that FSU can expect poor performance no matter the approach. As sad as it is for a major college program to have to pick their poison, that is the reality. Version 1 will bring more risk with slightly more reward and an improved running game, and version 2 will bring a lot of boredom, frustration, a record number of punts and very few turnovers. FSU punted 76 times last year. No matter how you slice it, that is pathetic. No BCS championship team has ever had more than 60 punts in a season. A punt represents a failed drive, and really represents his career at FSU.
Where is the "Leadership"? Surely is would show up somewhere! Oh wait, Leadership is important, but when that's the first term used to describe someone, it is often code for "lacking talent", or "not very good." 6-12 against BCS teams since Amato laid down the gameplan on how to completely shut down Drew's game? That doesn't cut it at FSU. Or it won't under Jimbo, if he can actually make the call!
As a 4-year starter at Florida State, it is sad that Drew Weatherford isn’t even an average starter in his own below average conference. His potential for improvement at this point is negligible. Every snap he takes for this team which is not in contention for a National Title is a snap that is not helping to develop a more talented future FSU QB. That is not to say, however, that FSU is doomed by playing Weatherford...
FSU can win with Weatherford.
With a defense that may be dominant, all FSU needs is a consistent, mature, and conservative effort. If he does what he did last year, and by that I mean keeping a very low (we are not asking for the unrealistically unsustainably low level of ’07) turnover rate, FSU can win 9 of 12 games by playing “Buc/ Raven Ball.”
7/25 UPDATE:
Addressing the concerns of those who feel that deep lobs to Greg Carr count as deep passes for the purposes of this evaluation. They do not and asserting that they do or should reveals the lack of football understanding this site hopes to cure. Many many many people can throw the jump ball. That is a lofted, slow moving pass that doesn't require arm strength.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Weatherford Report
As reported yesterday on Tomahawknation, Drew Weatherford is slated to start for FSU according to Bobby Bowden.This article is not about whether Jimbo Fisher or Bobby Bowden will name the starting quarterback for Florida State.Instead, let us delve into the qualifications of the incumbent.
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; width: 462pt; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="616"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YR
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> GS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ATT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> COM
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YDS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> RAT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ACCRN
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘07
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 318
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 181
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 56.9
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2049
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 118.5
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9TH
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘06
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 318
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 177
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 55.7
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2154
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.8
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 12
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 11
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.5%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 118.1
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 7TH
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ‘05
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 13
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 469
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 276
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 58.5
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3220
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.8
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 18
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 18
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.8%
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 121.3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 8TH
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> First, realize that 32 starts is an enormous body of evidence for a college quarterback. Weatherford is in the top 2% of starters nationally in starts.I sometimes hesitate to analyze college players because of their inherently small sample sets.Weatherford is the exception because of his extensive body of work.
What can we learn from this table?
Weatherford has never been rated in the top half of the ACC (His highest finish is 7<sup>th</sup>). Usually with a 3 or 4 year starting quarterback one would expect to see improvement. With Weatherford, however, we see consistency: consistently below average quarterbacking. From averaging an interception a game (.97), to having his junior year touchdown total (9) equal half of his total when he was a freshman (18).
Note, however, that I said he failed to improve and that he was consistently below average. I did not say that he hasn’t changed. He has changed. Last season, he stopped taking risks. Not just large risks or unwise risks, but rather, any risk at all. To apply the Drew Weatherford strategy in real life would be avoid going through a green light, or to not venture outside when it is overcast on the off chance it might rain. Notice how both of these analogies severely restrict movement. The same can be said of Weatherford’s stewardship of the Seminole offense. Whether the decision to avoid risk was conscious is not for this article. We aren’t psychologists and don’t pretend to be.
How do we know that Weatherford changed his approach?
Let’s go to his performance (aka the results). Scroll up to the chart. This is where the all important YPA (Yards per Attempt) comes in. If you are unfamiliar with YPA, google it. YPA is an extremely important indicator of quarterback success and strongly correlates to a successful running game. Teams with high Yards per Attempts force defenses to play fewer men close to the line of scrimmage and thus enjoy more space for their running game.
Weatherford’s YPA was 6.8 in both ’05 and ’06. Last year, however, it dropped to a ridiculous 6.4. Putting this in perspective, his 6.8 number was good for 6<sup>th</sup> in the ACC over the past 2 years. Last year’s 6.4 YPA placed him 10<sup>th</sup>, behind the likes of TJ Yates, Thaddeus Lewis, Kyle Wright, and Chris Turner. Yards per attempt measures the expected success a team will have when they drop back to throw. Last year with Weatherford under center, FSU fans could expect to be in the bottom quarter of the ACC.
But maybe the ACC just has an unusual affinity for gaining yards on pass plays?
Let’s see where his performance would rank in the other 5 BCS conferences to make sure we don’t have an anomaly in the ACC..
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Conf
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Weatherford’s 6.4 Yards Per Attempt Rank
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ACC
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10<sup>th</sup> (Bottom quarter)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> SEC
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 10<sup>th</sup> (Bottom quarter)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 20%)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big 12
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 1/3<sup>rd</sup>)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Pac 10
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 9<sup>th</sup> (Bottom 20%)
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Big East
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Last. 8<sup>th</sup> of 8. (7<sup>th</sup> if P. Bostich included)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Well, okay, so the performance would be poor in any conference and absolutely terrible for a 22 year old 3<sup>rd</sup> year starter.
Did Weatherford choose to throw less intermediate and deep routes and thus drop his YPA?
He did get a new offensive coordinator last year. Could it be that Jimbo hates the deep or intermediate route? Uh, no. The YPA’s of Jimbo’s QB’s for the last 3 years he was at LSU: 9.2 (’06), 7.9 (’05), 7.8 (’04). Let’s go ahead and say that Jimbo didn’t decide to suddenly call 23% shorter routes (throwing out the 9.2 year, since that was JaMarcus Russell throwing to stud wideouts, his 6.4 YPA is 23% less than the 7.85YPA Jimbo’s QB’s had in ’04 and ’05 at LSU.) We can definitively say that it wasn’t Jimbo. Look at some youtube video’s of LSU from ’04-’06 and you will see that Jimbo lived off the 15 yard Out, 18 yard square-in, and the seam route. In FSU’s offense these passes are not thrown because Weatherford can’t hit them consistently enough for them to be productive. This still looks like #11’s choice.
Are the stats inflated because of high sack totals?
NO. FSU qb’s took the least sacks among ACC teams in ’07 (22 sacks). Compare that to Virginia Tech, whose QB’s were sacked 54 times yet still posted a 7.6 average.
What could have caused this dramatic change in approach? Several theories work here.
“He was tired of being hit due to a poor offensive line.”
Weatherford has a history of happy feet in the pocket and may have decided to take the easy way out to save his body. Intense competition from Xavier Lee put a premium on Weatherford’s health. One tweak of the leg and he might have waived goodbye to his job. This theory has some merit, but Weatherford has always proven to be a tough kid. He may have a total lack of talent, but he is totally willing to play hurt and has done so several times.
“He is from the Tampa area and wanted to play Dilfer (Ravens edition ) & Brad Johnson (Bucs Edition) football.”
This theory has some merit. Anyone who watches ESPN long enough to get through the Brett Farve will hear the experts extol the virtues of playing low-risk turnover free football. Limiting turnovers at any level is important. Unfortunately, turnovers are much more costly in the NFL due to the conservative nature of play and the drastic change in field position they cause. In college football, turnovers are less important due to the wide open nature of the game. Teams go up and down the field with greater ease in college than the pro’s. While Weatherford may have seen two quarterbacks win super bowls playing coward football during his formative years (He would have been in his late teens when the Ravens and Bucs won), adapting this approach to college football is unwise. An approach should not be overhauled with the goal of limiting turnovers in mind if the result is to stifle the offense. While his interceptions did decrease from 11 to 3, his TD’s also decreased significantly.
Further, Weatherford’s 1% Interception rate is not sustainable over multiple seasons. We have yet to find a passer who had consecutive seasons under 1.75% as a staring quarterback with at least 310 attempts. Essentially, his approach was unwise and lucky. Employed in a similar fashion this year, one could expect a similar number of TD’s coupled with a significant uptick in interceptions.
The final likely reason Weatherford stayed on 12 with the dealer showing 8 is talent.
Over 32 games, we have watched Weatherford throw the football. 1105 passes in all. Scouts have as well. Unfortunately, over that many passes, flaws don’t just come to light, they glow. Every single coach in the ACC has now noticed #11’s weakness. What is that weakness?
Drew Weatherford is one of the worst in terms of arm strength among non-option quarterbacks in the BCS. There are some thows most college quarterbacks cannot make. Then there are the throws Weatherford has been unable to complete over 1105 passes. If Weatherford wants to find the first coach to expose this glaring weakness, he can walk directly to the defensive coaches office and speak with none other than FSU linebackers coach Chuck Amato.
Why coach Amato?Because as the defensive minded head coach of North Carolina state, Amato gave the rest of the ACC the book on Weatherford.Up until the NC State game of ’05, #11 posted decent YPA’s, especially when you consider he was making the first few starts of his career.Fast forward to NC State in ’05 and watch FSU lose 15-20.Look closer though, at the way NC state played him and the resulting trends the game set off.
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Opponent (2005)
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Weatherford’s YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> FSU Yards per Carry
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> First 8 opponents
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 7.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> NC State
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4.7
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> @ Clemson
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4.3
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 3.2
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> @ UF
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.8
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> VT
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.4
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2.0
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Penn State
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.0
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Avg of Last 5 games
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 5.6
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1.9
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> After Amato
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> -2.0 YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> -2.0 YPC.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This isn’t difficult to tell.Once Chuck Amato laid down the plans on how to dominate Weatherford, every team with average or above average personnel followed.How did this work and what was this Magical plan, and why did it also kill the running game?
I’m not going to fully explain it here because it wouldn’t make sense to the majority of readers. Essentially what he did was play press man, play the safeties very close to the line, and dare the quarterback with the cap-gun arm to throw an accurate pass of over 10 yards. Knowing that he is totally incapable of consistently executing those passes helped his plan. Amato knew. His plan worked on many levels. First, by having so many guys close to the line of scrimmage, he forced Weatherford read more players for a short pass route than he would normally need to do. Second, he let his secondary bait Weatherford into interceptions. Since Weatherford couldn’t zip the ball downfield, his corners and safeties had ample recovery time to make the interception. #11 saw that his wide receivers were open on their intermediate out routes and deep in-cuts, but he couldn’t deliver the ball to them on a consistent basis due to his considerable physical limitations. When Weatherford attempted to make the throws, he was intercepted 3 times. Third, with so many men close to the line of scrimmage, NC State’s players were able to tackle the receiver as soon as Weatherford delivered the short pass. On the same token, having so many men in the “box” completely shut down the running game (23 rushes for 43 yards.) By daring the QB to do something he could not do, Amato was able to dominate the FSU running game and effectively limit whatever semblance of a passing game remained.
A quick historical note-- Some will claim that Randy Shannon, Miami’s current head coach who was Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2005, really laid the plan. That is true in part, but most other teams believed that they would be unable to duplicate Miami’s success. Amato took Miami’s plan, used it with decent but not great athletes (the team had excellent defensive linemen and little else), and proved that it could work.
After the NC State game, the QB finished the season throwing by 4 Touchdowns and 8 interceptions, after throwing for 14 Touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the first 8 games. This strategy has been repeated against Weatherford in the 24 games since FSU lost to NC State in 2005 with varying levels of success. Generally, however, teams with average or better athletes have been able to duplicate the success using the Amato plan and teams with terrible personnel have not been able to produce the same level of success. This is troubling and reveals a greater trend:
Weatherford beats up on bad teams and struggles mightily against everyone else.
Since the NC State game of 2005, Weatherford started 24 games for FSU. 6 of those games were against Non-BCS conference teams and Duke. The remaining 18 show a disgusting record of ineptitude. Let’s go to the Chart:
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: verdana;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Since the “Amato Game”
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> ATT
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> COMP
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> %
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YDS
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> YPA
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> TD
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> INT
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">W-L RECORD
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Vs. 18 BCs Opponents
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 650
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 338
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> .52
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 4000
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 6.15
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 14
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 20
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">6-12
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> Vs. 6 Non-BCS & Duke
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 171
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 116
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> .68
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 1374
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 8.04
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 11
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top"> 2
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">6-0
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td><td style="vertical-align: top;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> I don’t even need to comment on this.That is horrific.It is an absolute testament to the quality of FSU’s skill position players and defense that they have had a .500 record in ACC play under the stewardship of Drew Weatherford.
While some (including # 11) are quick to cite the below average offensive line, this excuse fails to account for the above failures. The offensive line has only allowed 26 sacks on average, per year, under Weatherford’s tenure. This is a very good number. Quarterbacks deal with shaky line play in different ways. Some are able to make quick and intelligent reads and deliver the ball. Others are able to actually exploit the massive holes the defense gives them. Finally, others escape the pocket and run. Since he doesn’t read defenses exceptionally well, is unable to make throws that require an above average difficulty level, and is essentially immobile (182 career rushes for -61 yards), Weatherford does none of these things but rather has elected to deliver the ball prematurely. Note that he is not selecting the high percentage pass, but rather the first available option. We find further evidence of this by looking at his consistently average completion percentage (see first chart). If he elected to be smarter with the ball and take only the high percentage passes, as some suggested was the case, then that fact would be evidenced in his performance. As the first chart shows, upon electing to stop taking any risk, Weatherford did not achieve a spike in completion percentage. Rather, he “achieved” a miniscule 1.25% bump. The bottom line is that FSU can expect poor performance no matter the approach. As sad as it is for a major college program to have to pick their poison, that is the reality. Version 1 will bring more risk with slightly more reward and an improved running game, and version 2 will bring a lot of boredom, frustration, a record number of punts and very few turnovers. FSU punted 76 times last year. No matter how you slice it, that is pathetic. No BCS championship team has ever had more than 60 punts in a season. A punt represents a failed drive, and really represents his career at FSU.
Where is the "Leadership"? Surely is would show up somewhere! Oh wait, Leadership is important, but when that's the first term used to describe someone, it is often code for "lacking talent", or "not very good." 6-12 against BCS teams since Amato laid down the gameplan on how to completely shut down Drew's game? That doesn't cut it at FSU. Or it won't under Jimbo, if he can actually make the call!
As a 4-year starter at Florida State, it is sad that Drew Weatherford isn’t even an average starter in his own below average conference. His potential for improvement at this point is negligible. Every snap he takes for this team which is not in contention for a National Title is a snap that is not helping to develop a more talented future FSU QB. That is not to say, however, that FSU is doomed by playing Weatherford...
FSU can win with Weatherford.
With a defense that may be dominant, all FSU needs is a consistent, mature, and conservative effort. If he does what he did last year, and by that I mean keeping a very low (we are not asking for the unrealistically unsustainably low level of ’07) turnover rate, FSU can win 9 of 12 games by playing “Buc/ Raven Ball.”
7/25 UPDATE:
"Just got done reading the Weatherford report, tremendous. I hope people take note of your examples of risk, or lack there of. He pulled a 180 in his approach, I think in part due to the criticism he took after his 18 interception campaign and also because he realized he can't complete that pass. Must suck to know that one of your means of lessoning pressure is obsolete because you have a serious physical deficiency; arm strength. Imagine being a QB and coming to the startling realization that you can't THROW for shit. Hmmm, I guess I'll do what I can underneath and maybe nobody will notice."
__ Noted FSU Football Expert and former college football player.Addressing the concerns of those who feel that deep lobs to Greg Carr count as deep passes for the purposes of this evaluation. They do not and asserting that they do or should reveals the lack of football understanding this site hopes to cure. Many many many people can throw the jump ball. That is a lofted, slow moving pass that doesn't require arm strength.
