The dog says...when the super bowl lines came out BEFORE the games were played last week....

[3pointdog]

it showed Carolina -3 over Denver... now it is at -5.5...and climbing... and crossed 4 (6th most common number NFL games fall on)

I really think this line is getting inflated based on the car/arz game... and money is pouring in on Carolina everyday like a broken faucet..

I would have to play Denver or no play ... cant back Carolina when it looks so obvious... I really think if they opened the line at -6.5 you would still see the same money on Carolina...Public is blind and saw Carolina disassemble the Cardinals. Denver is a lot better then Arizona. Better Defense / Better QB.... They are also very healthy now...

Not my money... I'll gladly take the points here with Denver, please and thank you....!

One more thing... EXPERIENCE=DENVER

Good Luck to those that follow the dog...


thoughts/ comments always welcome

 

[justanobserver]

I was adamantly against the thought that Kubiak and Phillips could develop a succesful gameplan against Brady and Bellichick, and boy was i wrong, somebody around there is hitting all the right buttons and i am rolling with them.

 

[Cantpickem]

It might go to 6.5 so wait awhile if you want Denver

 

[sendacash]

With near 80% of the action thus far coming in for Carolina it looks like this game is being bet by the book in that if you like the favorite, bet it early and if you like the dog just wait for the best number. I do like the experience factor for Denver, the fact that they have been here before and have a chance to redeem themselves after being embarassed in SB 48 a couple years ago. Maybe all the hype and pressure will get to Cam & company, I thought his response yesterday was somewhat interesting, playing the race card regarding black QBs, saying they never seen anything like this with his Superman shirt on, etc..

 

[3pointdog]

My book just hit -6....

 

[sendacash]

I can understand all the love for Carolina, after all they are 17-1 and have dominated in the playoffs thus far. Looking at Denver, if you go back to the 2nd half against Cincinnati when they were down 2 scores, the Broncos at that time actually had a greater chance of missing the playoffs than they did of grabbing the #1 seed. And now here they are back in the Super Bowl, kind of crazy if you think about it. I do think Peyton has looked a lot better in the last couple weeks he had zero interceptions after leading the NFL in that category over the course of a shortened season. The 12 yard scramble for 1st down against the Patriots was something I don't recall seeing from Manning during his time in Denver. That being said Manning did miss a couple wide open receivers for touchdowns that really could have closed out that game against New England. It will be interesting to see if the league's only 5 time MVP continues to embrace his role as 'game manager' and if that will be enough riding the Denver defense to take down the NFL's newest MVP.

 

[ekg222004]

it showed Carolina -3 over Denver... now it is at -5.5...and climbing... and crossed 4 (6th most common number NFL games fall on)

I really think this line is getting inflated based on the car/arz game... and money is pouring in on Carolina everyday like a broken faucet..

I would have to play Denver or no play ... cant back Carolina when it looks so obvious... I really think if they opened the line at -6.5 you would still see the same money on Carolina...Public is blind and saw Carolina disassemble the Cardinals. Denver is a lot better then Arizona. Better Defense / Better QB.... They are also very healthy now...

Not my money... I'll gladly take the points here with Denver, please and thank you....!

One more thing... EXPERIENCE=DENVER

Good Luck to those that follow the dog...


thoughts/ comments always welcome

I can not remember Superbowl where you followed the line move and actually won. So I think you are on to something. Shit even this playoff season following the line moves from opening line to closing have been horrible.

 

[PigskinArmor]

My book just hit -6....

I wonder if this will this get to 7 ever?

 

[mudman]

I wonder if this will this get to 7 ever?

Looks like it just might.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I can not remember Superbowl where you followed the line move and actually won. So I think you are on to something. Shit even this playoff season following the line moves from opening line to closing have been horrible.

There's been several past couple years........not the past 2 tho......in 2012, the line opened 49ers -5.5 & within 1 hour, it was -3.5, & stayed around -4 until game day & closed -5.......smart money was on Ravens & cashed & the people that followed the line movement also cashed......

2011 Giants opened +3.5 vs Pats, line went to +3 fast, & stayed there until kickoff........

2010 Gbay opened Pk & closed -2.5 vs Pitt, line movement cashed........

2013 the line movement was way off & wrong.......2014 didn't have much movement.......line went from Pk, to -1 for each team & then back to Pk.

IMO, its a tough game to figure out for the spread.........I think Carolina wins SU, but Denver may keep it close for a cover.

 

[Samhain]

The Public is betting Carolina like they have Monday after the Superbowl Newspaper.
Don't think the line comes into play at all.
Based on all of this early action, Denver will win the Superbowl!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

The Public is betting Carolina like they have Monday after the Superbowl Newspaper.
Don't think the line comes into play at all.
Based on all of this early action, Denver will win the Superbowl!

Do you really think the public bets the SB this early? The public starts betting a few days before the SB......mainly on Friday, Saturday & the day if the SB.

IMO, this early movement is pro bettors betting Carolina.

 

[Samhain]

Do you really think the public bets the SB this early? The public starts betting a few days before the SB......mainly on Friday, Saturday & the day if the SB.

IMO, this early movement is pro bettors betting Carolina.

I actually believe the Books are playing a trick on the bettors.
I'm sorry to say, but this has "Sucker" written all over it.
If Carolina wins and covers, then I'm wrong. But I don't think I am.
This smells like the Undefeated Patriots vs. the Giants.

 

[KAPTHAT]

everyone is the public

 

[bodyforlife]

Unfortunately the only thing the "experience" factor tells you if you're comparing to the team a couple of years ago is they know how to lose.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I actually believe the Books are playing a trick on the bettors.
I'm sorry to say, but this has "Sucker" written all over it.
If Carolina wins and covers, then I'm wrong. But I don't think I am.
This smells like the Undefeated Patriots vs. the Giants.

The line in the Pats vs Giants 2007 SB came down like 3 points, that's right, the sharp early bettors bet the heck out of the line........& the Pats were undefeated.

Carolina is not undefeated......& I would agree with you if Carolina was 18-0......but they're not.

 

[nyzman]

everyone is the public

While I don't disagree Caro is a popular pick..I find it hard to put too much faith in consensus reports, they are easily misleading

80 "public" guys each bet 500 on Caro
80x500= 40000 bet on Caro

20 "sharps" bet 2000 on Denver
20x2000= 40000

Money is even...
However a consensus would show 80% on caro

I

 

[cashflow50]

doesn't sports insights and other premium shops publish these kinds of consensus #s including $$ % bets? They have monitors for all offshores and vegas right?

 

[3pointdog]

The line in the Pats vs Giants 2007 SB came down like 3 points, that's right, the sharp early bettors bet the heck out of the line........& the Pats were undefeated.

Carolina is not undefeated......& I would agree with you if Carolina was 18-0......but they're not.

I honestly don't think there is much difference in 18-0 and 17-1. Both teams play and just want to win.

Only ones who really care are the '72 dolphins....!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

While I don't disagree Caro is a popular pick..I find it hard to put too much faith in consensus reports, they are easily misleading

80 "public" guys each bet 500 on Caro
80x500= 40000 bet on Caro

20 "sharps" bet 2000 on Denver
20x2000= 40000

Money is even...
However a consensus would show 80% on caro

I

This is right.......but the thing is, its not the scenario in this game because the line has moved 2.5 points, which means, the big sharp money is on Carolina.

Let's see what happens next week around this time