The Cat's NFL Over/Under Bets, Plus More, & Detailed Writeups - Wild Card Rd - Postseason YTD: 0-0 (Regular Season: 119-98-7, 54.8%)

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2013 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 119-98-7 (54.8%), -$418
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*Over/Unders…………….. 36-32-4 (*My main strength)
Sides..….………………….... 15-12-1
Teasers…………………….... 23-20
Props………………………..... 29-28-1
2nd Halves……………….... 7-1
Live………………………....... 4-1
Underdog MLs……………… 1-1
Parlays……………………..... 1-1
Futures……………………….. 3-2-1
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2012 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 139-106-8 (56.7%), +$622
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*Over/Unders…………….. 48-39-2 (*My main strength)
Sides…..……….………….... 14-8-2
Teasers…………………….... 41-27
Props………………………..... 27-22-4
Moneylines……………...... 1-2
2nd Halves……………….... 5-7
Parlays……………………..... 0-1
Futures……………………….. 3-0
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Can’t believe it’s playoff time now, although to be honest, I just haven’t been feeling it mentally over these past few weeks, hence my sudden steep decline into the negative. Not sure what it is, as other than hoping for a deep showing from my Saints, my passion that I usually have for this just hasn’t been there. I’ve had less and less time attributed to this as well (Which is why I’ve barely posted lately), so that’s certainly a reason also. In any case, let’s see if I can muster up something in the Wild Card round, starting with this…


Chiefs/Colts OVER 45 (Bought 2 points) - $38 for $25
Other than a dud against these same Colts a few weeks ago in Kansas City, the Chiefs’ offense has been playing its best ball all year, scoring 24 points or more in five out of their past six (The one exception being the aforementioned contest against Indianapolis). You could actually say the same for the Colts’ offensive unit, as they’ve scored more than three touchdowns in each of their past five games. We all know it’s the hot hand in the playoffs that moves on, meaning those same hot hands are still going strong once they hit the postseason. Alex Smith has been salivating for a chance to prove himself again ever since losing his job in San Francisco, and with him in rhythm, I expect him to keep it up. Luckily in the case of Andrew Luck, this isn’t his first playoff game, as he encountered that experience last year, indicating he’ll be more comfortable in this second go-around after coming up short a year ago, which also means we won’t have to deal with the variable of him potentially having nerves. Therefore, with the variables kept to a minimum, I think both offenses continue to perform at the rate they have been over the past month-and-change, which should add up to an over. It’s also nice we won’t have to worry about any weather conditions, as this one is emanating from the friendly confines of a dome setting. As a result, I’m rolling with the over in this one, albeit while buying two points to protect myself if it’s an always-possible 24-21.


Griff Whalen OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards - $21 for $15
Most people still don’t know about Griff Whalen (How can you not with that awesome name?), but I noticed him right away when he put together a pair of three-catch ballgames in consecutive weeks at the beginning of November on a combined 14 targets. That’s when I realized this guy could become like a better version of Cole Beasley. Whalen has become even more heavily involved in the passing game, securing a whopping 15 catches in the final three weeks of the season (On 20 combined targets), leading me to believe he’ll be a consistent presence from here on out. I say that because when an offense is in rhythm like the Colts are now, they usually keep things consistent as to keep that momentum going, and that means all signs point to Whalen continuing to have a well-defined niche in Indianapolis’ passing attack. In addition, he’s surpassed Darrius Heyward-Bey on the depth chart, which should ensure he continues to attract that high number of targets.


GL to all with their action. Probably not betting the night game, as there’s no need to force anything being a Saints fan, but I still may add a prop or perhaps a live bet at some point later. Geaux Saints.
 
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Last-minute bet:

Chargers +7 - $24 for $20

I have it being close, although I do think the Bengals get over the hump and win this one.
 

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Live over? Do you really feel confident? I was contemplating it, but not sure.
 
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Ahh almost had that live bet. As a result, taking this:

49ers/Packers UNDER 49 (Bought 2.5 points) - $32 for $20

Just a minimum-sized bet because of Kaepernick's mastery of the GB defense. But I think this won't be as fast-paced because of the gameplans dictated by the freezing weather.
 
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Alright 3-2 performance, including 2-0 with game over/unders, and while I only made a little, that at least potentially gets me back in the spirit of football (Aside from Saints games) and puts me in a more confident position again to make bigger bets next week. It's all mental to me and mindset.
 

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