The Cat's NFL Over/Under Bets, Plus More, & Detailed Writeups - Championship Round - Postseason YTD: 5-4-1, +$259

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2013-14 NFL Postseason Betting Record: 5-4-1 (55.5%), +$259
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*Over/Unders…………….. 3-1 (*My main strength)
Sides..….………………….... 1-0-1
Props………………………..... 1-2
Live………………………....... 0-1
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2013 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 119-98-7 (54.8%), -$418
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*Over/Unders…………….. 36-32-4 (*My main strength)
Sides..….………………….... 15-12-1
Teasers…………………….... 23-20
Props………………………..... 29-28-1
2nd Halves……………….... 7-1
Live………………………....... 4-1
Underdog MLs……………… 1-1
Parlays……………………..... 1-1
Futures……………………….. 3-2-1
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2012 NFL Regular Season Betting Record: 139-106-8 (56.7%), +$622
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*Over/Unders…………….. 48-39-2 (*My main strength)
Sides…..……….………….... 14-8-2
Teasers…………………….... 41-27
Props………………………..... 27-22-4
Moneylines……………...... 1-2
2nd Halves……………….... 5-7
Parlays……………………..... 0-1
Futures……………………….. 3-0
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Very happy with how last week went, nailing what was, by far, my biggest bet of the entire season with that Griff Whalen over 2.5 receptions prop, which won with much ease - in the first half. Just as promised, Griff Whalen made a huge impact on the game, even in defeat, as he continues his inevitable emergence into being a legitimate upper echelon dependable slot receiver in the coming years (I made a similar prediction with Cecil Shorts at the end of the 2011 season when he was Jacksonville’s fifth receiver, and re-emphasized that going into last year when no one had heard of him - look how that turned out). In addition, let me remind you how crucial those types of bets are, as there are certain guys that just fall under the radar that Vegas has no clue on, and when you’ve been scouting a guy for over a month before he got any attention, that’s when you pounce on it so I’m thankful I had the opportunity to do so.

Anyway, can’t believe Championship Sunday is today, which is crazy when you think about the fact that this is our last chance to bet football before the almighty Super Bowl. As of now, only have one bet so far, although I think it’s a good one, albeit not nearly as good as the Griff Whalen one from last week, but I strongly recommend it nonetheless…


Tom Brady OVER 23.5 Completions - $69 for $60
I’m happy this bet is available, considering the over/under for the game is way too high for my liking, as is the line (For the record, I love Denver to win outright today, but the spread is also too high for my liking). But this prop bet right here looks beautiful to me, as all we need is the great Tom Brady himself to have a rather pedestrian-for-him type of performance, needing only a meager 24 completions to win this particular bet. And of course, there’s a lot of factors that support it, one of the most important being the fact that this should easily feature some high-scoring outcome, thus only helping our cause if both offensive units are in rhythm. Hell, when is Tom Brady not in rhythm in a high-pressure affair? Furthermore, considering I think Denver will win this game, and possibly be up decisively throughout, that means the Patriots will have to throw from behind, and considering the high-volume passing in such situations for this offense, that, too, also favors a high-volume statistical game from Mr. Brady. The future Hall-of-Famer put up astounding numbers against this same Denver D the last time they met (Albeit under circumstances where New England was trailing big early, but still), and we don’t even need that type of monumental performance from one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of professional football; we just need 24 completions! Win or lose, the passing game will play a huge role in New England’s gameplan today, as it almost always does, and even despite [my correctly boldly predicted, remember] the tremendous rise of one of my favorite players who I never gave up on over the past few years, LeGarrette Blount, you have to expect Brady to leave his mark on this one, as he always does. Like I said, this prop looks beautiful.


In my opinion, this is absolutely the best bet involving the Patriots/Broncos game. As for 49ers/Seahawks, ehh, still not sure what my course of action will be for that one, although I’ll still be pondering it. But this Brady prop is definitely my biggest bet today and something I feel comfortable with. GL to everyone with your action today on this special Championship Sunday… when’s the last time we had the consensus four best teams still alive in the final four? This is how it should be, without complete fluke “championship” teams like the Giants and Ravens hanging on. Wish it was like this more often.
 
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Even though the odds are -130 now, I'm going to add another $20 for $15 on the Brady prop. Good luck to those who have it as well
 

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I think it hits. I don't think NE can compete much less win without Brady throwing against a depleted Denver secondary.
 
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baller, glad we hit both. That Sherman tip was just incredible.

Happy with my 2-0 performance today to make me 7-4 this postseason and up a few hundred. Super Bowl Sunday is always one of the most fun days of the entire calendar year to bet on so I'm really looking forward to that - just as we all are - but that Sunday inbetween absolutely just always feels bizarre without football.
 
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Holy cow, Super Bowl lines are already up on my site, which is unusual for the book I deal with. Anyway, getting some of these in early before the line inevitable changes...

EARLY Super Bowl Bets:

Broncos -2.5 - $44 for $40
DEN/SEA OVER 47 (Bought 0.5 point) - $42 for $35

Obviously, over the next two weeks, there are literally hundreds of other bets to scan and think about leading up to the big day, when I will certainly have more, but just letting you guys know my early course of action. I'm posting these now so you get them at the best possible line, considering it's a guarantee the Broncos line will go up (At least to -4, most likely higher, I'll say), while the over/under should go up as well into the 48/49ish area, before settling no higher than 50.

Interestingly, after seemingly record-setting scoring throughout the year by all NFL teams, who all contributed to what could be dubbed as a Year of Overs, the playoffs have been anything but that, producing mostly unders, including two more today out of two, not to mention being dominant throughout the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds. I don't see that continuing in the Super Bowl. But of course, all of these topics will be beaten to death over the next two weeks, while I hopefully find a prop bet to really sink my teeth into come Feb. 2.
 

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