2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 5-6, -$101
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, after being on a roll, all of a sudden I find myself on a 3-game losing streak, my first in over a month, but that’s no big deal. See, if this were the regular season still, I’d be more concerned because I’m a perfectionist - I expect to win every day because of the knowledge I possess, the extreme studying I do, and the fact that I thrive on the more routine, mundane games of the baseball season. Postseason? Not as much because each game is its own standalone variable that involves a lot more than any regular season game, featuring more starting pitchers I’m not as strong with, since my best work is done with those lesser-known, under-the-radar pitchers (Paul Maholm, Bud Norris, James McDonald, Blake Beavan, Henderson Alvarez, Chris Volstad, the list goes on forever), so I don’t get too wrapped up in playoff games. As I learned last year, I’m an okay guy in playoff over/unders, while trying to take that to the next level this year. At the end of the day, without question, as I warned everyone beforehand, I am much, much better during the regular season when everything is A LOT more predictable, but we’ll see what happens as this postseason continues to unfold (I was 5-1-1 in last year’s World Series over/unders so I’ll certainly be looking forward to that, at least). In any case, let’s move on to the final day of the Divisional Series round on this Friday evening…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Best Bet) -$52 for $40
Adam Wainwright vs Gio Gonzalez
UNDER 7
There’s a popular expression out there acknowledging that “going to the well once too often” will result in failure. Hopefully, that is not the case with the second serving of this specific pitching matchup in this intensely-competitive Cardinals/Nationals series. To little surprise, here we are in the deciding fifth game of a series between two teams that were more so built on starting pitching than anything else. And, in my opinion, that is exactly what will decide it. Which pitcher will flinch first? You could argue that will be the main storyline as we watch this Game 5 matchup, which could result in yet another duel between the two terrific starters set to toe the rubber (Except with this one hopefully lasting more than five innings for both).
Gio Gonzalez, in my mind, is the 2012 NL Cy Young. In the first game of this series, he didn’t really pitch like one, which makes you wonder this question: What are the odds the favorite for this year’s Cy Young, with how remarkably consistent he’s been this WHOLE season, struggles in his only two playoff starts? I believe there’s a very slim chance of that happening, and there’s a lot of reasoning to back an outstanding start from the former Athletics’ ace. One, Gio Gonzalez is the real deal. Anybody out there who thinks otherwise - that his 2012 season was a “fluke” - is a fool because then that means you’re completely ignoring the large body of impressive work he registered throughout his notable time in Oakland. Gonzalez, as I’ve been reminding you guys throughout the year, was an underrated unders machine during his tenure as an Athletic, especially in the summer of 2010 when he was constantly dominating opposing line-ups (Even when he was pitching away from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum), so his great success this year should not be considered a coincidence at all. If you still don’t believe in him, you better start doing so because without question, Gonzalez will be a mainstay as one of the top aces in baseball for awhile. Period. He foreshadowed it in Oakland, and in just his first season with a new team - not to mention in a much higher-pressure situation - he passed with flying colors while establishing that he is here to stay as a perennial all-star pitcher. Secondly, he’s had significant success against the Cardinals this year. In fact, his first career shutout took place this season against this very same team back in late-August, and although he uncharacteristically walked seven hitters in Game 1, he still only allowed one hit. You have to assume he won’t walk that number again, or even close to it, as it was his first career playoff start, so it’s only human nature to be a bit uncharacteristic. Now, this being his second career playoff start, we should see more of the norm from him, especially since he’ll be on normal days’ rest this time (He had too many days of rest going into Game 1, which he admitted threw him off his routine and he even approached his pitching coach about that specific issue), and also due to him being at home tonight, where he has been especially excellent this year. He even mentioned how he made adjustments getting used to pitching in the postseason, so with that all being said, we should see Gio Gonzalez at the top of his game. I don’t think the pressure of starting in an elimination game will phase him.
If there’s a pitcher we don’t have to worry about pressure phasing him, that would certainly be the other pitcher in this hopeful duel, that being Adam Wainwright. In fact, believe it or not, his attitude is the No. 1 reason I’m looking forward to taking this under with him in it. “Of course I wish we would have won [Thursday], but you know what? This is every pitcher’s dream, I would say,” Wainwright said heading into this start. “Every competitor’s dream is to go into huge moments like that, so I look forward to the challenge.” As soon as I read that from Wainwright, I was sold right away for this bet. Right away. Being someone who implements human psychology into my betting more than most, my eyes lit up when I read that. Do you have any idea how significant that is? Most of the time, regarding an elimination game, you get the same generic clichés from pitchers. What Adam Wainwright said there, though, is FAR from generic. And it's rare. In fact, you WANT to specifically bet on pitchers with that attitude. Trust me, it is rare when a starting pitcher says something like that. Now, of course, attitude isn’t everything, and if Wainwright was entering this game with some sort of slump, specifically his pre-all-star-break string, I’d have my doubts. But clearly, he is feeling like his old self, which is kind of miraculous if you think about it because if you were following this wonderful 2012 baseball season since Day One, you’d notice that Wainwright actually struggled throughout the first couple of months while trying to re-gain his old form following his surgery (Very similar to the journey of Josh Johnson this year). In fact, Wainwright had a near-5 ERA going into July! Obviously, that is very significant, being that it was three months of the season, but what did he do? Just kept working, just kept pitching his game, and from the all-star break, it certainly showed in his stats, as he was 7-5 in 15 starts with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That is the Adam Wainwright we’ve grown accustomed to over the years, and it has translated into the postseason as well, where he contributed a solid effort in Game 1, while striking out 10. That is impressive, and with his attitude as a legitimate competitor - certainly more than most - going into this assignment, you have to believe he’ll continue that type of success. After all, starting pitchers are at their best when they are specifically looking forward to a start. Based on his attitude, and his extensive run of quality pitching over these past few months, I feel very good about Adam Wainwright - as should Cardinal fans be as well - going into tonight.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Well, after being on a roll, all of a sudden I find myself on a 3-game losing streak, my first in over a month, but that’s no big deal. See, if this were the regular season still, I’d be more concerned because I’m a perfectionist - I expect to win every day because of the knowledge I possess, the extreme studying I do, and the fact that I thrive on the more routine, mundane games of the baseball season. Postseason? Not as much because each game is its own standalone variable that involves a lot more than any regular season game, featuring more starting pitchers I’m not as strong with, since my best work is done with those lesser-known, under-the-radar pitchers (Paul Maholm, Bud Norris, James McDonald, Blake Beavan, Henderson Alvarez, Chris Volstad, the list goes on forever), so I don’t get too wrapped up in playoff games. As I learned last year, I’m an okay guy in playoff over/unders, while trying to take that to the next level this year. At the end of the day, without question, as I warned everyone beforehand, I am much, much better during the regular season when everything is A LOT more predictable, but we’ll see what happens as this postseason continues to unfold (I was 5-1-1 in last year’s World Series over/unders so I’ll certainly be looking forward to that, at least). In any case, let’s move on to the final day of the Divisional Series round on this Friday evening…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (Best Bet) -$52 for $40
Adam Wainwright vs Gio Gonzalez
UNDER 7
There’s a popular expression out there acknowledging that “going to the well once too often” will result in failure. Hopefully, that is not the case with the second serving of this specific pitching matchup in this intensely-competitive Cardinals/Nationals series. To little surprise, here we are in the deciding fifth game of a series between two teams that were more so built on starting pitching than anything else. And, in my opinion, that is exactly what will decide it. Which pitcher will flinch first? You could argue that will be the main storyline as we watch this Game 5 matchup, which could result in yet another duel between the two terrific starters set to toe the rubber (Except with this one hopefully lasting more than five innings for both).
Gio Gonzalez, in my mind, is the 2012 NL Cy Young. In the first game of this series, he didn’t really pitch like one, which makes you wonder this question: What are the odds the favorite for this year’s Cy Young, with how remarkably consistent he’s been this WHOLE season, struggles in his only two playoff starts? I believe there’s a very slim chance of that happening, and there’s a lot of reasoning to back an outstanding start from the former Athletics’ ace. One, Gio Gonzalez is the real deal. Anybody out there who thinks otherwise - that his 2012 season was a “fluke” - is a fool because then that means you’re completely ignoring the large body of impressive work he registered throughout his notable time in Oakland. Gonzalez, as I’ve been reminding you guys throughout the year, was an underrated unders machine during his tenure as an Athletic, especially in the summer of 2010 when he was constantly dominating opposing line-ups (Even when he was pitching away from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum), so his great success this year should not be considered a coincidence at all. If you still don’t believe in him, you better start doing so because without question, Gonzalez will be a mainstay as one of the top aces in baseball for awhile. Period. He foreshadowed it in Oakland, and in just his first season with a new team - not to mention in a much higher-pressure situation - he passed with flying colors while establishing that he is here to stay as a perennial all-star pitcher. Secondly, he’s had significant success against the Cardinals this year. In fact, his first career shutout took place this season against this very same team back in late-August, and although he uncharacteristically walked seven hitters in Game 1, he still only allowed one hit. You have to assume he won’t walk that number again, or even close to it, as it was his first career playoff start, so it’s only human nature to be a bit uncharacteristic. Now, this being his second career playoff start, we should see more of the norm from him, especially since he’ll be on normal days’ rest this time (He had too many days of rest going into Game 1, which he admitted threw him off his routine and he even approached his pitching coach about that specific issue), and also due to him being at home tonight, where he has been especially excellent this year. He even mentioned how he made adjustments getting used to pitching in the postseason, so with that all being said, we should see Gio Gonzalez at the top of his game. I don’t think the pressure of starting in an elimination game will phase him.
If there’s a pitcher we don’t have to worry about pressure phasing him, that would certainly be the other pitcher in this hopeful duel, that being Adam Wainwright. In fact, believe it or not, his attitude is the No. 1 reason I’m looking forward to taking this under with him in it. “Of course I wish we would have won [Thursday], but you know what? This is every pitcher’s dream, I would say,” Wainwright said heading into this start. “Every competitor’s dream is to go into huge moments like that, so I look forward to the challenge.” As soon as I read that from Wainwright, I was sold right away for this bet. Right away. Being someone who implements human psychology into my betting more than most, my eyes lit up when I read that. Do you have any idea how significant that is? Most of the time, regarding an elimination game, you get the same generic clichés from pitchers. What Adam Wainwright said there, though, is FAR from generic. And it's rare. In fact, you WANT to specifically bet on pitchers with that attitude. Trust me, it is rare when a starting pitcher says something like that. Now, of course, attitude isn’t everything, and if Wainwright was entering this game with some sort of slump, specifically his pre-all-star-break string, I’d have my doubts. But clearly, he is feeling like his old self, which is kind of miraculous if you think about it because if you were following this wonderful 2012 baseball season since Day One, you’d notice that Wainwright actually struggled throughout the first couple of months while trying to re-gain his old form following his surgery (Very similar to the journey of Josh Johnson this year). In fact, Wainwright had a near-5 ERA going into July! Obviously, that is very significant, being that it was three months of the season, but what did he do? Just kept working, just kept pitching his game, and from the all-star break, it certainly showed in his stats, as he was 7-5 in 15 starts with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That is the Adam Wainwright we’ve grown accustomed to over the years, and it has translated into the postseason as well, where he contributed a solid effort in Game 1, while striking out 10. That is impressive, and with his attitude as a legitimate competitor - certainly more than most - going into this assignment, you have to believe he’ll continue that type of success. After all, starting pitchers are at their best when they are specifically looking forward to a start. Based on his attitude, and his extensive run of quality pitching over these past few months, I feel very good about Adam Wainwright - as should Cardinal fans be as well - going into tonight.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**