Alright, didn't want to start the day 0-2, although I won back most of what I lost on Norris vs Garcia under with what I said to do - a parlay involving the over of 8 AND St. Louis ML. In any case, that's an under that should've hit, as the Astros' were gift-wrapped two runs, but what can you do? Here's my night card...
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $48 for $40
Clay Buchholz vs David Price
UNDER 7
In the beginning of the season, I wrote about how Clay Buchholz was pretty overrated, and it showed throughout the first few months of the season when he posted an ugly ERA that was hovering around the 5's and 6's. Since then, however, I must admit how Buchholz has won me over with really an admirable run. He's coming off a start in which he held the Blue Jays to one earned run on four hits over seven strong innings - the latest outing in a whole bunch of him that has seen the right-hander record eight quality starts out of his past 11. As a result, I've done a complete "180" with this guy, in believing that he actually can be a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher, albeit not really the stereotypical ace. He's especially looked like one most recently, though, going seven innings or more in each of his past four assignments, and tonight, he's scheduled to face the team he's had more success against than anyone else. His 2.76 ERA in 12 starts against Tampa Bay since 2008 is the third lowest in baseball over that span, and Buchholz has also held the Rays three runs or fewer in 10 of those 12 starts, while tossing five or more innings in all 12... with that kind of successful track record against a team, I'd like to believe that Buchholz' recent extensive run of excellence will continue.
And then on the other side, we have a true legitimate ace - probably one of the top five in all of baseball - that being David Price. Although the Rays' left-hander has made just two starts in September, they've both been dandies for the most part, and he's coming off a tremendous start in New York six days ago so he's on normal rest here. Reading some of his comments regarding this particular start, it's clear he has the Cy Young on his mind, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. If you overthink awards and stuff of that nature, it might throw you off your regular game, but I think Price can be an exception. He's a battle-tested workhorse who also realizes that his team's playoff hopes are starting to faint, making this seemingly a must-win game. Considering how consistent he's been (After all, he DOES lead the Majors with that sparkling 2.54 ERA), it's certainly a good bet to count on a quality start from the Tampa Bay ace, especially since he'll be in his comfortable home setting of Tropicana Field, where he has compiled a remarkable 1.66 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts this season, while also maintaining an ultra impressive .181 opposing batting average. Given all that, it has to be considered a safe bet seeking another terrific outing from Price in his home ballpark. With the line at 7, we're even protected in the event of a 5-2 outcome. Hopefully it doesn't get that close.
Other 9/20 MLB Over/Under Bets I'm Taking:
Tyler Cloyd vs Jeremy Hefner OVER 8 - $23 for $23 (No idea why this is even money)
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $48 for $40
Clay Buchholz vs David Price
UNDER 7
In the beginning of the season, I wrote about how Clay Buchholz was pretty overrated, and it showed throughout the first few months of the season when he posted an ugly ERA that was hovering around the 5's and 6's. Since then, however, I must admit how Buchholz has won me over with really an admirable run. He's coming off a start in which he held the Blue Jays to one earned run on four hits over seven strong innings - the latest outing in a whole bunch of him that has seen the right-hander record eight quality starts out of his past 11. As a result, I've done a complete "180" with this guy, in believing that he actually can be a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher, albeit not really the stereotypical ace. He's especially looked like one most recently, though, going seven innings or more in each of his past four assignments, and tonight, he's scheduled to face the team he's had more success against than anyone else. His 2.76 ERA in 12 starts against Tampa Bay since 2008 is the third lowest in baseball over that span, and Buchholz has also held the Rays three runs or fewer in 10 of those 12 starts, while tossing five or more innings in all 12... with that kind of successful track record against a team, I'd like to believe that Buchholz' recent extensive run of excellence will continue.
And then on the other side, we have a true legitimate ace - probably one of the top five in all of baseball - that being David Price. Although the Rays' left-hander has made just two starts in September, they've both been dandies for the most part, and he's coming off a tremendous start in New York six days ago so he's on normal rest here. Reading some of his comments regarding this particular start, it's clear he has the Cy Young on his mind, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. If you overthink awards and stuff of that nature, it might throw you off your regular game, but I think Price can be an exception. He's a battle-tested workhorse who also realizes that his team's playoff hopes are starting to faint, making this seemingly a must-win game. Considering how consistent he's been (After all, he DOES lead the Majors with that sparkling 2.54 ERA), it's certainly a good bet to count on a quality start from the Tampa Bay ace, especially since he'll be in his comfortable home setting of Tropicana Field, where he has compiled a remarkable 1.66 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts this season, while also maintaining an ultra impressive .181 opposing batting average. Given all that, it has to be considered a safe bet seeking another terrific outing from Price in his home ballpark. With the line at 7, we're even protected in the event of a 5-2 outcome. Hopefully it doesn't get that close.
Other 9/20 MLB Over/Under Bets I'm Taking:
Tyler Cloyd vs Jeremy Hefner OVER 8 - $23 for $23 (No idea why this is even money)
Yup, very nicely done. Should've been 2-0 in the night games as well if not for that brutal bad beat in Buchholz vs Price, that matchup was everything I thought it'd be - a very enjoyable pitcher's duel... until Bailey very uncharacteristically blew the 4-1 lead in the 9th. Couldn't even get a push out of it ugh just ridiculous
Yes! That is my exact logic, which is why when you have a technique with over/unders, you stick with it all year long because those bad beats won't go on forever. I mean, I wish you were here for the first half of the season though... you wouldn't believe how many bad beats I was getting; they were happening almost every day that it was getting ridiculous (With basically no breaks going my way, since I'm much more of an unders guy), but I never changed my technique because of the success I had last year, and I knew they would go away eventually. It's the right bet, and as long as you make the right bet, you will win 7 or 8 times out of ten, so you just gotta keep with that mindset.
I guess I won't sweat this out too much because unlike the first half, the second half of the season hasn't really been bad in terms of bad beats, as bullpens have been much more stable at this point in time. The first half was just a shitshow every night that it was truly unbelievable
