2012 MLB O/U Record: 133-131-12, -$843
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Solid 4-2 performance yesterday to return to my Monday form. Wish I had more on my best bet Sale vs Moore under, as Chris Sale continues to look phenomenal, especially after striking out 15 in the win. And as much as I love Matt Moore’s potential, I’m glad he lost that pitcher’s duel because instead of potentially getting a feeling of content from a win (Since he’s still improving from his early-season struggles), he instead can simply take solace in the fact that he had a real quality start against a good offense, which will continue to make him hungry in the near-future going forward in living up to the ace-caliber potential that I know he has. That’ll be a nice ship to explore in five or so days in his next start (I don’t look ahead at the schedule. My technique requires me to take everything one day at a time and not know any pitching matchups until the late night before). In any case, here’s today’s card, which surprisingly doesn't feature the game with my boy Eric Stults for once...
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet)
Joe Saunders vs Ryan Vogelsong
OVER 7
I’ve been real solid with late Tuesday night games this year so I’m hoping that trend continues on this specific Tuesday night, as my best bet involves one of those such games, and on MLB Network no less. Here we have a pitching matchup between two quality pitchers that really have gained their nice reputations more so from “knowing how to pitch” rather than overpowering opposing lineup. That’s something I believe will favor the offensive side of things in this particular contest featuring a clash between two solid offenses that I think can get it going. Based on Joe Saunders’ string of recent starts, the Giants offense might be able to strike significantly, as Saunders has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts, one of those being an outing where the Giants pummeled him for six runs and tens hits over five innings, while only striking out once. I’ve always thought Saunders was a real quality pitcher as an Angel, but his best days are behind him, and as a result,I don’t think he can continue at his current 3.79 ERA pace, which is why his numbers have started to suffer this month.
RyanV ogelsong is certainly a real quality pitcher at this point in time, as evident in the 2012 he’s registered so far. With his sparkling 2.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, Vogelsong is proving that 2011 was no fluke, in which he put together one oft he greatest random comeback stories in all my years as a diehard baseball fan. After all, when this guy was floundering around in Pittsburgh in 2006, did you think he would ever re-surface in the Major Leagues again, let alone as an all-star? It still boggles my mind even a year later. Vogelsong is indeed good, but his K:BB ratio is more lingering on the average side (38:23), which I feel could spark a live Diamondbacks’ offense to get it going here tonight. I love their lineup and the weapons they have; they’re so stacked that a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who is the real deal in terms of a legit power hitter, doesn’t even get consistent playing time. I think the worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, so you’ve got to go over 7 in this one.
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
Justin Verlander vs Daniel Bard
UNDER 8.5
Speaking of MLB Network games, here we have the other one from this Tuesday night slate, and while I’ve mentioned several times before to not let the over/under line dictate your opinion on a game, well, this might be one of the rare exceptions (Although I also have a vibe on it). Look at the relatively high line and look at who’s set to deal for the Tigers tonight: The one and only Justin Verlander. There’s always a sense of comfort when taking an under involving the American League Cy Young, especially while he’s been able to prove that he’s still as dominant as last year. At 5-2 with a 2.15 ERA, 0.81WHIP (!), and a 75:15 K:BB ratio in 75 innings, Verlander looks poised to repeat his incredible 2011 campaign. As for this specific matchup, he’s already dominated the Red Sox once this year, which he did on Opening Day over eight shutout frames, and when it comes to pitching at Fenway Park, he was dominant there as well last year in limiting the Red Sox to three runs over eight innings, while striking out nine and walking none. Every indication points tothe usual Justin Verlander showing up tonight (Especially as he tries to rescues the Tigers from their woes concerning their overall record), and when that happens, the under is always in good shape - no matter how low it is.
Obviously,the much bigger issue in securing this under will in fact be securing a good performance from Daniel Bard. First, let me caution you in saying that while I do study every matchup and every Major League pitcher of every day over the course of a full season, Daniel Bard is probably one of the guys that I know least about. Not necessarily stuff-wise, but in terms of his mindset, which in my technique of betting, is the most important factor. After all, this is a young man who has been shifted back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, the latter of which he made a name for himself. Starting, however? Not so much, as his 4.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP are not pretty numbers. At the very least, Bard is coming off one of his best starts of the season, in which he went into hitter-friendly Camden Yards and limited the first-place Orioles to two runs over five-plus fine innings. That certainly HAS to be a momentum boost, whichis critical going into a matchup against another slugging offense like Detroit’s. If Bard has any potential to be a good starter, this has to be a spot where he shows up and continues his development into becoming just that. With a line as high as 8.5, there is margin for error to play with, which makes me feel a bit more comfortable. Forming a nice building block in his last start, let’s just hope Bard doesn’t regress and gives us a decent outing here.
Other 5/29 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Will Smith vs Justin Masterson OVER 8.5 (At the current moment, Will Smith, to me at least, comes off as a clown with not much potential. He was rocked in his MajorLeague debut at Yankee Stadium, then simply cites his off debut as, “Bad location and they hit ‘em. They hit ‘em a long ways.” Maybe it’s just my vibe but Smith might need a few more starts before he maybe becomes relevant; his mentality seems off, too.)
Homer Bailey vs Charlie Morton OVER 8 (I see each team scoring at least three runs in this Tuesday night affair at PNC Park. That said, you have to play the percentages and just hope it doesn’t end 4-3, which is also a likely scenario. If not, then we win this over.)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Solid 4-2 performance yesterday to return to my Monday form. Wish I had more on my best bet Sale vs Moore under, as Chris Sale continues to look phenomenal, especially after striking out 15 in the win. And as much as I love Matt Moore’s potential, I’m glad he lost that pitcher’s duel because instead of potentially getting a feeling of content from a win (Since he’s still improving from his early-season struggles), he instead can simply take solace in the fact that he had a real quality start against a good offense, which will continue to make him hungry in the near-future going forward in living up to the ace-caliber potential that I know he has. That’ll be a nice ship to explore in five or so days in his next start (I don’t look ahead at the schedule. My technique requires me to take everything one day at a time and not know any pitching matchups until the late night before). In any case, here’s today’s card, which surprisingly doesn't feature the game with my boy Eric Stults for once...
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet)
Joe Saunders vs Ryan Vogelsong
OVER 7
I’ve been real solid with late Tuesday night games this year so I’m hoping that trend continues on this specific Tuesday night, as my best bet involves one of those such games, and on MLB Network no less. Here we have a pitching matchup between two quality pitchers that really have gained their nice reputations more so from “knowing how to pitch” rather than overpowering opposing lineup. That’s something I believe will favor the offensive side of things in this particular contest featuring a clash between two solid offenses that I think can get it going. Based on Joe Saunders’ string of recent starts, the Giants offense might be able to strike significantly, as Saunders has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts, one of those being an outing where the Giants pummeled him for six runs and tens hits over five innings, while only striking out once. I’ve always thought Saunders was a real quality pitcher as an Angel, but his best days are behind him, and as a result,I don’t think he can continue at his current 3.79 ERA pace, which is why his numbers have started to suffer this month.
RyanV ogelsong is certainly a real quality pitcher at this point in time, as evident in the 2012 he’s registered so far. With his sparkling 2.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, Vogelsong is proving that 2011 was no fluke, in which he put together one oft he greatest random comeback stories in all my years as a diehard baseball fan. After all, when this guy was floundering around in Pittsburgh in 2006, did you think he would ever re-surface in the Major Leagues again, let alone as an all-star? It still boggles my mind even a year later. Vogelsong is indeed good, but his K:BB ratio is more lingering on the average side (38:23), which I feel could spark a live Diamondbacks’ offense to get it going here tonight. I love their lineup and the weapons they have; they’re so stacked that a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who is the real deal in terms of a legit power hitter, doesn’t even get consistent playing time. I think the worst-case scenario for this game is 5-2, so you’ve got to go over 7 in this one.
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
Justin Verlander vs Daniel Bard
UNDER 8.5
Speaking of MLB Network games, here we have the other one from this Tuesday night slate, and while I’ve mentioned several times before to not let the over/under line dictate your opinion on a game, well, this might be one of the rare exceptions (Although I also have a vibe on it). Look at the relatively high line and look at who’s set to deal for the Tigers tonight: The one and only Justin Verlander. There’s always a sense of comfort when taking an under involving the American League Cy Young, especially while he’s been able to prove that he’s still as dominant as last year. At 5-2 with a 2.15 ERA, 0.81WHIP (!), and a 75:15 K:BB ratio in 75 innings, Verlander looks poised to repeat his incredible 2011 campaign. As for this specific matchup, he’s already dominated the Red Sox once this year, which he did on Opening Day over eight shutout frames, and when it comes to pitching at Fenway Park, he was dominant there as well last year in limiting the Red Sox to three runs over eight innings, while striking out nine and walking none. Every indication points tothe usual Justin Verlander showing up tonight (Especially as he tries to rescues the Tigers from their woes concerning their overall record), and when that happens, the under is always in good shape - no matter how low it is.
Obviously,the much bigger issue in securing this under will in fact be securing a good performance from Daniel Bard. First, let me caution you in saying that while I do study every matchup and every Major League pitcher of every day over the course of a full season, Daniel Bard is probably one of the guys that I know least about. Not necessarily stuff-wise, but in terms of his mindset, which in my technique of betting, is the most important factor. After all, this is a young man who has been shifted back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, the latter of which he made a name for himself. Starting, however? Not so much, as his 4.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP are not pretty numbers. At the very least, Bard is coming off one of his best starts of the season, in which he went into hitter-friendly Camden Yards and limited the first-place Orioles to two runs over five-plus fine innings. That certainly HAS to be a momentum boost, whichis critical going into a matchup against another slugging offense like Detroit’s. If Bard has any potential to be a good starter, this has to be a spot where he shows up and continues his development into becoming just that. With a line as high as 8.5, there is margin for error to play with, which makes me feel a bit more comfortable. Forming a nice building block in his last start, let’s just hope Bard doesn’t regress and gives us a decent outing here.
Other 5/29 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Will Smith vs Justin Masterson OVER 8.5 (At the current moment, Will Smith, to me at least, comes off as a clown with not much potential. He was rocked in his MajorLeague debut at Yankee Stadium, then simply cites his off debut as, “Bad location and they hit ‘em. They hit ‘em a long ways.” Maybe it’s just my vibe but Smith might need a few more starts before he maybe becomes relevant; his mentality seems off, too.)
Homer Bailey vs Charlie Morton OVER 8 (I see each team scoring at least three runs in this Tuesday night affair at PNC Park. That said, you have to play the percentages and just hope it doesn’t end 4-3, which is also a likely scenario. If not, then we win this over.)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
