2012 MLB O/U Record: 117-116-10, -$510
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Wow, yesterday was quite… humbling. It’s a real shame, as I produced two real quality best bets, one the result of my bold prediction of Bud Norris’continued evolution transforming into a superstar pitcher turning out true. All we needed was Matt Garza, along with his then-2.58 ERA and then-1.04 WHIP, to give a semi-decent effort against a team he has owned throughout his entire career, not to mention one of the lower-ranked offenses in the league that was already missing their most dynamic player (Not their best) Jordan Schafer. I don’t care what the result was; that was as good a bet as you can come up with, as long asy our bold stipulation turns out true, which it did in Bud Norris tallying up another seven shutout innings to continue his impressive streak of only allowing one earned run in 26 innings. But Garza inexplicably got rocked, and the worst part was that it was all MENTAL, as every run he gave up came with two outs. In fact, in each of those rallies, there was originally nobody on base with two outs, so after allowing a walk and a hit in each situation, he just imploded, and voila, despite the low number of hits, he enabled the Astros cash in via the long ball. That could’ve been so easily avoidable, making that loss incredibly frustrating. As for Santana vs Bedard, all the evidence pointed to an under with a line as high as 7, and it’s just unfortunate that disgusting Mets lineup that didn’t even have some of their key starters, and instead plating more than half of a lineup that regularly hits under .220, was able toget four runs off Bedard right away. But you keep your head up and move on…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Beachy vs Mat Latos
OVER 7/7.5 (Waiting to see if it drops to 7. Will still take if it stays 7.5)
I’m not going to say if this is my best bet for the day just yet, as I’m still not sure of my full gameplan for tonight’s slate after I was clearly rattled from last night’s action. In any case, Mat Latos is a guy I know very well, as I jumped on his bandwagon as soon as he made his debut in 2009. After watching him initially, I thought there was no way this guy wouldn’t develop into an ace, especially pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and of course, he became just that for the Padres. Unfortunately, when he was traded to Cincinnati this past offseason, I acquired the vibe that his performance would suffer, and that’s been the case as well, as evident in his gross 4.63 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. My over/under stats back up my knowledge on him as well, as I was7-2-1 on his over/unders last year, and am out to a 2-0 start with him in 2012. The thing that makes Latos so easy to bet on, especially at this point in time, is because he ADMITTED to feeling the pressure of being a cornerstone franchise pitcher playing on a new team. He also admitted he’s still in the process of making adjustments, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s still feeling pressure of being a player that was traded to a team for four players (Obviously it's in the front of his mind), well, it easily affects him mentally, and it’s definitely showing in his 2012 statline. Considering this is set to air on MLB Network, that could be another mental obstacle for Mr. Latos, so I see Atlanta bouncing back from last night’s offensive dismal effort to tag him for a few.
Then there’s Brandon Beachy, who is just pitching out of this world. Does he have the stuff to be a consistent upper-rotation pitcher in this league? Yes he does. I don’t necessarily think he’s going to be an ace-caliber pitcher at any point in his career, but the potential is there, and going based on stats, he might be the best pitcher in 2012 thus far. After all, when you’re 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through eight starts to begin the season, you’re just in complete control of everything. Of course, he’s not that good, and it’s inevitable that his performance will start to come down a bit, which I anticipate begins taking place tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He pitched there once last year and had modest success over six innings in a no-decision, but I just see this as one of those nights where the Reds have their bats going. I’d wait for the line to drop to 7, though, which it has a very good chance of doing.
Other 5/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Travis Wood vs JA Happ UNDER 8
RA Dickey vs James McDonald UNDER 7
Luke Hochevar vs Phil Hughes OVER 9
CJ Wilson vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 6.5/7 (Waiting for line to go up to 7. Willstill take if it stays 6.5)
PJ Walters vs Gavin Floyd OVER 8/8.5 (Waiting for line to go down to 8. Will stilltake if it stays 8.5)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Wow, yesterday was quite… humbling. It’s a real shame, as I produced two real quality best bets, one the result of my bold prediction of Bud Norris’continued evolution transforming into a superstar pitcher turning out true. All we needed was Matt Garza, along with his then-2.58 ERA and then-1.04 WHIP, to give a semi-decent effort against a team he has owned throughout his entire career, not to mention one of the lower-ranked offenses in the league that was already missing their most dynamic player (Not their best) Jordan Schafer. I don’t care what the result was; that was as good a bet as you can come up with, as long asy our bold stipulation turns out true, which it did in Bud Norris tallying up another seven shutout innings to continue his impressive streak of only allowing one earned run in 26 innings. But Garza inexplicably got rocked, and the worst part was that it was all MENTAL, as every run he gave up came with two outs. In fact, in each of those rallies, there was originally nobody on base with two outs, so after allowing a walk and a hit in each situation, he just imploded, and voila, despite the low number of hits, he enabled the Astros cash in via the long ball. That could’ve been so easily avoidable, making that loss incredibly frustrating. As for Santana vs Bedard, all the evidence pointed to an under with a line as high as 7, and it’s just unfortunate that disgusting Mets lineup that didn’t even have some of their key starters, and instead plating more than half of a lineup that regularly hits under .220, was able toget four runs off Bedard right away. But you keep your head up and move on…
**Dollar Amounts To Be Posted Later Leading Up To Gametime**
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Beachy vs Mat Latos
OVER 7/7.5 (Waiting to see if it drops to 7. Will still take if it stays 7.5)
I’m not going to say if this is my best bet for the day just yet, as I’m still not sure of my full gameplan for tonight’s slate after I was clearly rattled from last night’s action. In any case, Mat Latos is a guy I know very well, as I jumped on his bandwagon as soon as he made his debut in 2009. After watching him initially, I thought there was no way this guy wouldn’t develop into an ace, especially pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and of course, he became just that for the Padres. Unfortunately, when he was traded to Cincinnati this past offseason, I acquired the vibe that his performance would suffer, and that’s been the case as well, as evident in his gross 4.63 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. My over/under stats back up my knowledge on him as well, as I was7-2-1 on his over/unders last year, and am out to a 2-0 start with him in 2012. The thing that makes Latos so easy to bet on, especially at this point in time, is because he ADMITTED to feeling the pressure of being a cornerstone franchise pitcher playing on a new team. He also admitted he’s still in the process of making adjustments, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s still feeling pressure of being a player that was traded to a team for four players (Obviously it's in the front of his mind), well, it easily affects him mentally, and it’s definitely showing in his 2012 statline. Considering this is set to air on MLB Network, that could be another mental obstacle for Mr. Latos, so I see Atlanta bouncing back from last night’s offensive dismal effort to tag him for a few.
Then there’s Brandon Beachy, who is just pitching out of this world. Does he have the stuff to be a consistent upper-rotation pitcher in this league? Yes he does. I don’t necessarily think he’s going to be an ace-caliber pitcher at any point in his career, but the potential is there, and going based on stats, he might be the best pitcher in 2012 thus far. After all, when you’re 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through eight starts to begin the season, you’re just in complete control of everything. Of course, he’s not that good, and it’s inevitable that his performance will start to come down a bit, which I anticipate begins taking place tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He pitched there once last year and had modest success over six innings in a no-decision, but I just see this as one of those nights where the Reds have their bats going. I’d wait for the line to drop to 7, though, which it has a very good chance of doing.
Other 5/22 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Travis Wood vs JA Happ UNDER 8
RA Dickey vs James McDonald UNDER 7
Luke Hochevar vs Phil Hughes OVER 9
CJ Wilson vs Graham Godfrey UNDER 6.5/7 (Waiting for line to go up to 7. Willstill take if it stays 6.5)
PJ Walters vs Gavin Floyd OVER 8/8.5 (Waiting for line to go down to 8. Will stilltake if it stays 8.5)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**