2012 MLB O/U Record: 197-191-18, -$1,291 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad bullpen breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Nice 2-1 day yesterday in winning both of my top over/unders, including my continued dominance of the highly underrated Lucas Harrell. Just have to keep on keepin’ on in this Thursday slate...
PittsburghPirates @ Philadelphia Phillies - $39 for $35
AJ Burnett vs Kyle Kendrick
UNDER 8.5
To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a line this high, and surprisingly, it may even go higher right before gametime, as there’s a lot of extra juice on the over. However, I just don’t see it. First, you have AJ Burnett set to deal in today’s afternoon contest, and he’s been featured in unders as much as any pitcher in baseball over the past month-and-change. After all, he’s given up two runs or less in an amazing eight of his past nine outings, and the one where he didn’t, he surrendered just three runs. That being known, it’s obvious Burnett is in a real groove right now, as he continues to live up to my prediction from before the season when I said he would retain some of his old success before he came to New York, where the moronic overreacting fans (Not all of them, some of the smartest fans, too) single-handedly ruined him (Living in NY, I can say that), at least only temporarily. You just can’t teach the talent Burnett has displayed for most of his career and it’s showing again. When he’s mentally locked in, his stuff just takes over opposing batting orders and enables him to cruise in most starts. The only thing I’m worried about, at least concerning Burnett, is that this can be viewed as a higher-pressure situation, which the veteran right-hander obviously does not succeed as much in, as his Pirates are right in the mix for first-place, and in a big finale of a four-gamer with the Phillies in Philadelphia, which is always a tough city to pitch in. Overall, though, I think he’ll be fine. This is vintage AJ Burnett we’ve been witnessing all year long.
Opposing him is the mercurial Kyle Kendrick, who sometimes contributes a solid performance, but a lot of times, he’s on the other end of the spectrum. Lately, especially, Kendrick has been on that wrong end, having given up at least five runs in three of his past four outings. Overall, he sports an ERA in the mid-5’s and a WHIP of 1.58, which does not bode well for any under, let alone in a pitcher’s park like Citizens Bank Park, but while I usually do not have a good vibe for a Kyle Kendrick under, I really feel this one will be different. It’s not like he’s facing a nall-world lineup here today, and when Kendrick is at a point close to rockbottom, he’s shown an ability to turn it around. While he’s not really good, I don’t think he’s as bad as his numbers indicate, as sometimes, a bad slump can kind of take on a life of its own. Kendrick can realize that, and with a somewhat favorable matchup, begin to turn things around, having the luxury of pitching in the National League. I’m going with vibe in that regard, as well as an extra bit of help from the Law of Averages. All three games in this series have seen the over hit so with the aforementioned law, which works more than you think, we could see both offenses come back down to earth, in producing some sort of 6-2/5-1 score on this Thursday afternoon.
Other 6/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Dan Haren vs Brett Cecil OVER 9/9.5 (WHY in the world did Vegas set this line at 9.5? There’s no logical explanation, given both quality pitchers involved, other than the fact that Vegas obviously sharest he same view that I do that this one is inexplicably going well over. They just want to protect themselves and/or bait people into the wrong under bet)
Andrew Cashner vs Dallas Keuchel UNDER 8.5 (This one will have a write-up later on today. LOTS of potential in this one with a line that high)
Trevor Bauer vs Jair Jurrjens UNDER 8.5
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Dollar Amounts for Later Games to Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Nice 2-1 day yesterday in winning both of my top over/unders, including my continued dominance of the highly underrated Lucas Harrell. Just have to keep on keepin’ on in this Thursday slate...
PittsburghPirates @ Philadelphia Phillies - $39 for $35
AJ Burnett vs Kyle Kendrick
UNDER 8.5
To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a line this high, and surprisingly, it may even go higher right before gametime, as there’s a lot of extra juice on the over. However, I just don’t see it. First, you have AJ Burnett set to deal in today’s afternoon contest, and he’s been featured in unders as much as any pitcher in baseball over the past month-and-change. After all, he’s given up two runs or less in an amazing eight of his past nine outings, and the one where he didn’t, he surrendered just three runs. That being known, it’s obvious Burnett is in a real groove right now, as he continues to live up to my prediction from before the season when I said he would retain some of his old success before he came to New York, where the moronic overreacting fans (Not all of them, some of the smartest fans, too) single-handedly ruined him (Living in NY, I can say that), at least only temporarily. You just can’t teach the talent Burnett has displayed for most of his career and it’s showing again. When he’s mentally locked in, his stuff just takes over opposing batting orders and enables him to cruise in most starts. The only thing I’m worried about, at least concerning Burnett, is that this can be viewed as a higher-pressure situation, which the veteran right-hander obviously does not succeed as much in, as his Pirates are right in the mix for first-place, and in a big finale of a four-gamer with the Phillies in Philadelphia, which is always a tough city to pitch in. Overall, though, I think he’ll be fine. This is vintage AJ Burnett we’ve been witnessing all year long.
Opposing him is the mercurial Kyle Kendrick, who sometimes contributes a solid performance, but a lot of times, he’s on the other end of the spectrum. Lately, especially, Kendrick has been on that wrong end, having given up at least five runs in three of his past four outings. Overall, he sports an ERA in the mid-5’s and a WHIP of 1.58, which does not bode well for any under, let alone in a pitcher’s park like Citizens Bank Park, but while I usually do not have a good vibe for a Kyle Kendrick under, I really feel this one will be different. It’s not like he’s facing a nall-world lineup here today, and when Kendrick is at a point close to rockbottom, he’s shown an ability to turn it around. While he’s not really good, I don’t think he’s as bad as his numbers indicate, as sometimes, a bad slump can kind of take on a life of its own. Kendrick can realize that, and with a somewhat favorable matchup, begin to turn things around, having the luxury of pitching in the National League. I’m going with vibe in that regard, as well as an extra bit of help from the Law of Averages. All three games in this series have seen the over hit so with the aforementioned law, which works more than you think, we could see both offenses come back down to earth, in producing some sort of 6-2/5-1 score on this Thursday afternoon.
Other 6/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Dan Haren vs Brett Cecil OVER 9/9.5 (WHY in the world did Vegas set this line at 9.5? There’s no logical explanation, given both quality pitchers involved, other than the fact that Vegas obviously sharest he same view that I do that this one is inexplicably going well over. They just want to protect themselves and/or bait people into the wrong under bet)
Andrew Cashner vs Dallas Keuchel UNDER 8.5 (This one will have a write-up later on today. LOTS of potential in this one with a line that high)
Trevor Bauer vs Jair Jurrjens UNDER 8.5
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Dollar Amounts for Later Games to Be Posted Leading Up To Gametime**