2012 MLB O/U Record: 181-177-16, -$1,505 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless bad breaks concerning the bullpens, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another 5-1 day yesterday - my second in the past three days - which is a strong sign I’m getting back into my consistent rhythm. The unfortunate thing was that I barely made any money, as that one loss was my best bet Diamond vs Correia under 8.5, although I wasn’t really wrong with the pitching matchup, as each pitcher went over five innings and they gave up a combined four runs, in helping it be 2-0 in the 6th inning… Before this year, an under as high as 8.5 with those parameters in a National League park would hit AT LEAST 75-percent of the time, but as the theme of this year continues, bullpens continue to get pounded and blow countless unders every single day. Let’s see what today has in store…
(Posting this early because I have one of the afternoon games. Additional games and write-ups to be posted later)
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) -$108 for $90
Bruce Chen vs Jordan Lyles
UNDER 9
This isn’t at all a flashy pitching matchup in the finale of this interesting Royals/Astros series, but it should be one that is just good enough to get under that 9 at Minute Maid Park on this Wednesday afternoon. At first glance, it appears to simply only be a matchup of two guys sporting an ERA north of 5, and that’s actually something we can use in our favor, as these are two hurlers who are better than that and should see their final statline finish below that when all is said and done. This sentiment could especially be applied to Bruce Chen, who, aside from being one of the nicest people in the game, is actually also one of the most underrated as well. With an ERA below 4.20 in each of the past two seasons, it’s easy to believe that Chen is one of the more underappreciated pitchers in all of baseball, as despite not being overpowering, he manages to survive well for himself in the superior American League. Coming off his worst start in quite some time, when he was pelted for six runs in 1.2 IP (Including two home runs allowed), Chen will be much poised to bounce back from that, and should have a leg up on the competition today, considering the Astros have the worst batting average in the National League against left-handed pitching. This is a solid spot for Chen today, as since his intelligence and ability of knowing how to pitch ranks as one of his high strengths, I think he’ll be able to capitalize quite well on his assignment for today.
Opposing him is the more unknown variable, that being youngster Jordan Lyles, who is yet to really take off at this point in his still-early Major League career - but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Lyles has a good track record in the minor leagues, and while it hasn’t been able to fully translate at the Major League level just yet, he has shown flashes of being a fine pitcher, registering three quality starts out of his seven total outings thus far in 2012. He was impressively on his way towards one in his last start in Texas, which is about the toughest thing a pitcher can do, but Lyles ran into a bad fifth inning (Done in by some errors also), in which up to that point, he was shutting them out. I believe the skill is there for Lyles to stick consistently in the Major Leagues, it’s just about putting it all together in one start on a regular basis. I hope he recognizes that and was able to take more good away from bad from his last start, when he wasa ctually dominating the best lineup in baseball for the first four innings. The potential is there, and with the line as high as 9, we have some room to play with, but if Lyles is able to bounce back very effectively from his past few so-so starts, we may not even need that extra margin for error. Let’s get that under.
**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Another big bet of mine today is Francisco Liriano vs Erik Bedard under 8/8.5 so start thinking about it. Writeup will come later)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another 5-1 day yesterday - my second in the past three days - which is a strong sign I’m getting back into my consistent rhythm. The unfortunate thing was that I barely made any money, as that one loss was my best bet Diamond vs Correia under 8.5, although I wasn’t really wrong with the pitching matchup, as each pitcher went over five innings and they gave up a combined four runs, in helping it be 2-0 in the 6th inning… Before this year, an under as high as 8.5 with those parameters in a National League park would hit AT LEAST 75-percent of the time, but as the theme of this year continues, bullpens continue to get pounded and blow countless unders every single day. Let’s see what today has in store…
(Posting this early because I have one of the afternoon games. Additional games and write-ups to be posted later)
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) -$108 for $90
Bruce Chen vs Jordan Lyles
UNDER 9
This isn’t at all a flashy pitching matchup in the finale of this interesting Royals/Astros series, but it should be one that is just good enough to get under that 9 at Minute Maid Park on this Wednesday afternoon. At first glance, it appears to simply only be a matchup of two guys sporting an ERA north of 5, and that’s actually something we can use in our favor, as these are two hurlers who are better than that and should see their final statline finish below that when all is said and done. This sentiment could especially be applied to Bruce Chen, who, aside from being one of the nicest people in the game, is actually also one of the most underrated as well. With an ERA below 4.20 in each of the past two seasons, it’s easy to believe that Chen is one of the more underappreciated pitchers in all of baseball, as despite not being overpowering, he manages to survive well for himself in the superior American League. Coming off his worst start in quite some time, when he was pelted for six runs in 1.2 IP (Including two home runs allowed), Chen will be much poised to bounce back from that, and should have a leg up on the competition today, considering the Astros have the worst batting average in the National League against left-handed pitching. This is a solid spot for Chen today, as since his intelligence and ability of knowing how to pitch ranks as one of his high strengths, I think he’ll be able to capitalize quite well on his assignment for today.
Opposing him is the more unknown variable, that being youngster Jordan Lyles, who is yet to really take off at this point in his still-early Major League career - but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Lyles has a good track record in the minor leagues, and while it hasn’t been able to fully translate at the Major League level just yet, he has shown flashes of being a fine pitcher, registering three quality starts out of his seven total outings thus far in 2012. He was impressively on his way towards one in his last start in Texas, which is about the toughest thing a pitcher can do, but Lyles ran into a bad fifth inning (Done in by some errors also), in which up to that point, he was shutting them out. I believe the skill is there for Lyles to stick consistently in the Major Leagues, it’s just about putting it all together in one start on a regular basis. I hope he recognizes that and was able to take more good away from bad from his last start, when he wasa ctually dominating the best lineup in baseball for the first four innings. The potential is there, and with the line as high as 9, we have some room to play with, but if Lyles is able to bounce back very effectively from his past few so-so starts, we may not even need that extra margin for error. Let’s get that under.
**Will Add More Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Another big bet of mine today is Francisco Liriano vs Erik Bedard under 8/8.5 so start thinking about it. Writeup will come later)