2012 MLB O/U Record: 233-223-23, -$1,505 (Been making bigger bets this year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
2-2 day yesterday, which unfortunately doesn’t tell the whole story, as I was 100-percent right on three of the four starting pitching matchups, as usual. I mean, Nolasco vs Correia over 8.5 was 4-3 in the fifth inning, but just with my usual luck, I couldn’t get anything out of either bullpen the entire game, even with the Marlins having first and third in the ninth with one out and Jose Reyes up (You know if I had the under in this game, the bullpens would have immediately given it up), which is especially disheartening when one of said bullpens, that being Miami’s, regularly gets tagged. About even for the day anyway so it means nothing in the grand landscape of it all, other than me taking each game with personal pride, so let’s just move on to what could be a very promising Saturday…
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $83 for $80
Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb
OVER 7.5/8 ($58 for $55 on O7.5, $25 for $25 on O8)
Little bit of a fishy line, but I’ll gladly take the bait, as I had a strong vibe on the over well before I even saw the line (For newer readers, I always examine each pitching matchup in great depth BEFORE looking at the lines; it’s a technique I highly recommend because if you look at them simultaneously, the number can greatly affect your opinion rather than focusing on the actual pitchers involved, which won’t lead to any consistent success. Trust me). I don’t see what Vegas’ fascination with Alex Cobb is all about - simply put, the guy is just a very hittable pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners (1.41 WHIP) and doesn’t record many strikeouts. That’s obviously not a recipe for being able to thrive consistently, yet the lines usually seem lower than they should be whenever he takes the mound. I’ve been saying this since I watched a couple of his starts last year - Alex Cobb pans out as nothing more than a serviceable bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, and given Seattle’s recent offensive surge, not to mention being significantly better against right-handers than left-handers, this appears to be a spot where the Marinerscan continue their hot scoring ways (35 runs in their last 5 games... Alex Cobb is going to put a complete stop to that? How?) and put a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Without question, the line being as low as it is probably has more to do with the opposing starter in this game, that being the somewhat underrated Jason Vargas, who I’ve always classified as just a very nice pitcher to have in your rotation. He’s also usually consistent, as evident in him registering 13 quality starts out of his 20 total starts this season, which is about on par with a solid quality start percentage that he has maintained throughout his career. However, we’re taking the over here, and despite my kind words towards the Mariners’ southpaw, there is still good reasoning in the belief that he can contribute considerably to this over. The most important split stat concerning Vargas, as has been throughout his seven year career, is that he’s always been much worse on the road than at home. In fact, for his career, there’s almost a full two-run difference in his ERA (5.33 compared to 3.59), and that trend has continued significantly in 2012, as his road numbers (5.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) fall well short of his home performance (2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). Vargas has produced four consecutive starts allowing three runs or less, and I believe he’s due to at least give up a few runs here in Tampa. After all, that may be all we need, so long as Cobb does his part in getting hounded, and if that’s the case, my envisioned 6-2/7-2 outcome will come to fruition.
Other 7/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook OVER 8 - $46 for $40
Carlos Zambrano vs AJ Burnett UNDER 8 - $38 for $35
Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson UNDER 8 - $21 for $20
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Should also have a write-up for Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister over 9, and perhaps one for Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker over, when the line drops to 7)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
2-2 day yesterday, which unfortunately doesn’t tell the whole story, as I was 100-percent right on three of the four starting pitching matchups, as usual. I mean, Nolasco vs Correia over 8.5 was 4-3 in the fifth inning, but just with my usual luck, I couldn’t get anything out of either bullpen the entire game, even with the Marlins having first and third in the ninth with one out and Jose Reyes up (You know if I had the under in this game, the bullpens would have immediately given it up), which is especially disheartening when one of said bullpens, that being Miami’s, regularly gets tagged. About even for the day anyway so it means nothing in the grand landscape of it all, other than me taking each game with personal pride, so let’s just move on to what could be a very promising Saturday…
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (Best Bet) - $83 for $80
Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb
OVER 7.5/8 ($58 for $55 on O7.5, $25 for $25 on O8)
Little bit of a fishy line, but I’ll gladly take the bait, as I had a strong vibe on the over well before I even saw the line (For newer readers, I always examine each pitching matchup in great depth BEFORE looking at the lines; it’s a technique I highly recommend because if you look at them simultaneously, the number can greatly affect your opinion rather than focusing on the actual pitchers involved, which won’t lead to any consistent success. Trust me). I don’t see what Vegas’ fascination with Alex Cobb is all about - simply put, the guy is just a very hittable pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners (1.41 WHIP) and doesn’t record many strikeouts. That’s obviously not a recipe for being able to thrive consistently, yet the lines usually seem lower than they should be whenever he takes the mound. I’ve been saying this since I watched a couple of his starts last year - Alex Cobb pans out as nothing more than a serviceable bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, and given Seattle’s recent offensive surge, not to mention being significantly better against right-handers than left-handers, this appears to be a spot where the Marinerscan continue their hot scoring ways (35 runs in their last 5 games... Alex Cobb is going to put a complete stop to that? How?) and put a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Without question, the line being as low as it is probably has more to do with the opposing starter in this game, that being the somewhat underrated Jason Vargas, who I’ve always classified as just a very nice pitcher to have in your rotation. He’s also usually consistent, as evident in him registering 13 quality starts out of his 20 total starts this season, which is about on par with a solid quality start percentage that he has maintained throughout his career. However, we’re taking the over here, and despite my kind words towards the Mariners’ southpaw, there is still good reasoning in the belief that he can contribute considerably to this over. The most important split stat concerning Vargas, as has been throughout his seven year career, is that he’s always been much worse on the road than at home. In fact, for his career, there’s almost a full two-run difference in his ERA (5.33 compared to 3.59), and that trend has continued significantly in 2012, as his road numbers (5.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) fall well short of his home performance (2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). Vargas has produced four consecutive starts allowing three runs or less, and I believe he’s due to at least give up a few runs here in Tampa. After all, that may be all we need, so long as Cobb does his part in getting hounded, and if that’s the case, my envisioned 6-2/7-2 outcome will come to fruition.
Other 7/21 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook OVER 8 - $46 for $40
Carlos Zambrano vs AJ Burnett UNDER 8 - $38 for $35
Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson UNDER 8 - $21 for $20
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
(Should also have a write-up for Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister over 9, and perhaps one for Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker over, when the line drops to 7)