2012 MLB O/U Record: 302-274-34, -$1,292 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
The good times are still going, as not only did I record yet another, yaawn, 3-0 night on Monday; not only did I extend my current winning streak to EIGHT (Dating back to my last Friday night game), I also accomplished a nifty milestone, attaining my 300th win of the season, which is always a cool benchmark to reach. Just as important, last night’s performance pushed me to 49-30-7 (62%) for the month of August, which doesn’t really surprise me, considering the final two months of the season last year were two of my most profitable. Another interesting item to point out is that on August 1st, I had an ultra-rare 0-for-3 night, meaning I’m actually a remarkable 49-27-7 since August 2nd. Whatever, enough patting of my own back, as this is a “What have you done for me lately?” endeavor, and it is that sense of urgency I approach each day with, so here we go with, unfortunately, one of the final evenings in this wonderful summer month…
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $150 for $125
Matt Cain vs Bud Norris
UNDER 7.5
If you’re a regular reader of mine, you can pretty much skip this upcoming longgg paragraph, as I’m about to pimp Bud Norris in the usual fashion that I do seemingly every five days. If you’re a newer reader who’s starting to give me a shot, then you might want to pay close attention, because this analysis you’re about to read is as good as you will find ANYWHERE concerning the incredibly underrated Bud Norris. Yes, he is actually my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, so there is always that possibility that personal bias clouds better judgment, which has happened before, as it has with every gambler and their favorite players, but I assure you this will not be the case here. First off, it should be common knowledge that Mr. Norris is actually quite a very good pitcher. I don’t care that his ERA currently sits at 5.19, I don’t care that his record is 5-11, and I don’t care that his WHIP has ballooned all the way to an unsightly 1.46. If anything, we should be happy with those numbers because there’s no way the Bud Norris that I know, the same Bud Norris I have studied intently since his Major League debut in the summer of 2009, probably more than 99-percent of people out there, including people who work in the Astros organization, will end up with similar statistics. I just can’t envision that at all, even from watching him this year. See, you truly have to watch these games to understand a pitcher and gain a legitimate beat on them, which is what I have on Bud. It’s a lost art, as I see wayyy too many people, not just on here, but anywhere, even outside of gambling, that lean too much on statistics and not enough on actually, you know, watching the games. Furthermore, you have to lean on human psychology - look at their bodylanguage, read their quotes, track their mannerisms. THAT is how you get to know a pitcher, not from just reading boxscores. And the vibe I get from Norris is that, despite his team being on pace for a historically bad season (The worst in franchise history, actually), he has not given up on his personal season - not at all. He acknowledges wanting to end it strong; he’s a very prideful and proud pitcher, which surprisingly isn’t something you can say for a lot of starters out there. The best thing about Norris’ 2012 season that allows me to retain my full confidence in him is how he has maintained his always-impressive high strikeout rate (130 Ks in 131 IP), which has always been a major strength throughout his career. That tells me he still possesses his above-average velocity and ability, which can translate into success again over the final month-and-change of this season. Best of all, we’re catching him in a very good spot. One, he’s coming off a very nice start (Albeit with uncharacteristically only one strikeout), in which he limited St. Louis (Whom he’s always been good against) to three runs over six innings, which doesn’t sound that great, but I watched that game and there were a couple of fluke things involved, such as losing the lead over a wild pitch. He also only walked one, which is a good sign as well. It’s important because he’s one of the more confidence-oriented pitchers out there, and since his last outing was an encouraging one, it no doubt served in helping re-build his confidence. Furthermore, there is no question Bud Norris is a much better pitcher at home. It’s a trend I notice every year and the split stats show it again this year: On the road, he’s 2-10 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Yikes. But at home? 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. I mean, it’s not always this drastic, but there’s always a significant discrepancy between his home and away splits, so the trend is a very real one: Bud Norris is simply much better within the confines of Minute Maid Park, and that’s something I expect to continue through tonight’s assignment.
Wow, after all that, you’d think it was about the much more decorated and well-known Matt Cain, who is actually also the more reliable starter as it pertains to this under. I mean, I don’t really need to go on a long spiel concerning the Giants’ excellent right-hander, but here’s a reminder. For the season, Cain is 13-5 with a sweet 2.83 ERA and a sparkling 1.01 WHIP. Like his counterpart tonight, Cain also possesses that excellent strikeout rate (159 Ks in 174 IP), and unlike Norris, he keeps the walks to a minimum (Only 33 free passes). Most importantly concerning tonight’s outlook, he’s facing a team that he owns - and you can almost say literally. After all, Cain did throw a perfect game against this same Astros squad only two months ago, and even after that in a start in July, he held them to one earned run over six-plus innings, while striking out six as well. I don’t see how it’s possible that this current Astros lineup can strike Cain for more than two runs, and even two runs would be generous. I usually look for the positives in a team or a player, but I can’t stick up for Houston any longer after what they’ve done to their organization this year - it is absolutely horrendous when you have Steve Pearce, who had trouble even making those awful Pirate teams from 2009 and 2010, suddenly bat in the heart of your order every single day. Guys like Scott Moore and Justin Maxwell (I always thought J-Max was a bit underrated, though) are cast-offs who get significant time batting in valuable spots in the lineup. That being said, I ask again: Just HOW is this team going to plate more a few runs against the great Matt Cain? I hate to say things are a lock because nothing ever is, but this is as close to one as you’re going to see: The Astros, just as they’ve proven multiple times this year, cannot hit a lick off the San Francisco ace. As a result, all we have to do is depend on a quality start, or even just a fine one, from Norris (Or do we? We can win with a 6-1 outcome), which I’m very confident we will get from him in this Tuesday night Houston setting.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - $46 for $40
Ricky Romero vs Phil Hughes
UNDER 9.5
Well, I wrote so much on my best bet that I’m actually fatigued, so I’ll try and keep this one to a minimum. This under actually has a little similarity to the one detailed above, as Ricky Romero, who has been worse than Bud Norris, is in a very similar scenario, except he’ll be matched up against a familiar foe on the road in one of the hardest ballparks to pitch in. Even so, I have confidence in Romero’s abilities. For years ever since his rookie campaign, Romero has been a dependable entity, even while spending all of his time in the feisty American League East, so I know he just hasn’t simply lost his talent. Yes, his numbers are horrendous, and he is coming off a start in which he walked a career-high eight (How does that even happen?), but from everything I read, he’s determined to turn this thing around and end his season on a positive note. He’s similar to Norris in that regard in that he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher; he’s almost a perfectionist of sorts, if you’ve ever watched his body language on the mound and how upset he gets, based on situations that potentially dictate his performance throughout the game. Concerning tonight, though, I had a good vibe that he’ll have a much-improved start, despite having to face the mightyYankees, who actually will be without a critical piece this evening in Mark Teixeira, so that’s a step forward there in the right direction already. As for Phil Hughes, he’s simply just been rock-solid. His numbers for the year don’t look extraordinary or anything, but you can say they have for, surprisingly, his home split stats, in which he’s registered a nice 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while going 9-3 in 13 starts at Yankee Stadium. I was hoping the line for this game would be 10, which protects us if it’s 6-4/7-3, but I think 9.5 should also be enough to secure this under victory.
Other 8/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Johnny Cueto vs Wade Miley OVER 8 - $22 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
The good times are still going, as not only did I record yet another, yaawn, 3-0 night on Monday; not only did I extend my current winning streak to EIGHT (Dating back to my last Friday night game), I also accomplished a nifty milestone, attaining my 300th win of the season, which is always a cool benchmark to reach. Just as important, last night’s performance pushed me to 49-30-7 (62%) for the month of August, which doesn’t really surprise me, considering the final two months of the season last year were two of my most profitable. Another interesting item to point out is that on August 1st, I had an ultra-rare 0-for-3 night, meaning I’m actually a remarkable 49-27-7 since August 2nd. Whatever, enough patting of my own back, as this is a “What have you done for me lately?” endeavor, and it is that sense of urgency I approach each day with, so here we go with, unfortunately, one of the final evenings in this wonderful summer month…
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $150 for $125
Matt Cain vs Bud Norris
UNDER 7.5
If you’re a regular reader of mine, you can pretty much skip this upcoming longgg paragraph, as I’m about to pimp Bud Norris in the usual fashion that I do seemingly every five days. If you’re a newer reader who’s starting to give me a shot, then you might want to pay close attention, because this analysis you’re about to read is as good as you will find ANYWHERE concerning the incredibly underrated Bud Norris. Yes, he is actually my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, so there is always that possibility that personal bias clouds better judgment, which has happened before, as it has with every gambler and their favorite players, but I assure you this will not be the case here. First off, it should be common knowledge that Mr. Norris is actually quite a very good pitcher. I don’t care that his ERA currently sits at 5.19, I don’t care that his record is 5-11, and I don’t care that his WHIP has ballooned all the way to an unsightly 1.46. If anything, we should be happy with those numbers because there’s no way the Bud Norris that I know, the same Bud Norris I have studied intently since his Major League debut in the summer of 2009, probably more than 99-percent of people out there, including people who work in the Astros organization, will end up with similar statistics. I just can’t envision that at all, even from watching him this year. See, you truly have to watch these games to understand a pitcher and gain a legitimate beat on them, which is what I have on Bud. It’s a lost art, as I see wayyy too many people, not just on here, but anywhere, even outside of gambling, that lean too much on statistics and not enough on actually, you know, watching the games. Furthermore, you have to lean on human psychology - look at their bodylanguage, read their quotes, track their mannerisms. THAT is how you get to know a pitcher, not from just reading boxscores. And the vibe I get from Norris is that, despite his team being on pace for a historically bad season (The worst in franchise history, actually), he has not given up on his personal season - not at all. He acknowledges wanting to end it strong; he’s a very prideful and proud pitcher, which surprisingly isn’t something you can say for a lot of starters out there. The best thing about Norris’ 2012 season that allows me to retain my full confidence in him is how he has maintained his always-impressive high strikeout rate (130 Ks in 131 IP), which has always been a major strength throughout his career. That tells me he still possesses his above-average velocity and ability, which can translate into success again over the final month-and-change of this season. Best of all, we’re catching him in a very good spot. One, he’s coming off a very nice start (Albeit with uncharacteristically only one strikeout), in which he limited St. Louis (Whom he’s always been good against) to three runs over six innings, which doesn’t sound that great, but I watched that game and there were a couple of fluke things involved, such as losing the lead over a wild pitch. He also only walked one, which is a good sign as well. It’s important because he’s one of the more confidence-oriented pitchers out there, and since his last outing was an encouraging one, it no doubt served in helping re-build his confidence. Furthermore, there is no question Bud Norris is a much better pitcher at home. It’s a trend I notice every year and the split stats show it again this year: On the road, he’s 2-10 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Yikes. But at home? 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. I mean, it’s not always this drastic, but there’s always a significant discrepancy between his home and away splits, so the trend is a very real one: Bud Norris is simply much better within the confines of Minute Maid Park, and that’s something I expect to continue through tonight’s assignment.
Wow, after all that, you’d think it was about the much more decorated and well-known Matt Cain, who is actually also the more reliable starter as it pertains to this under. I mean, I don’t really need to go on a long spiel concerning the Giants’ excellent right-hander, but here’s a reminder. For the season, Cain is 13-5 with a sweet 2.83 ERA and a sparkling 1.01 WHIP. Like his counterpart tonight, Cain also possesses that excellent strikeout rate (159 Ks in 174 IP), and unlike Norris, he keeps the walks to a minimum (Only 33 free passes). Most importantly concerning tonight’s outlook, he’s facing a team that he owns - and you can almost say literally. After all, Cain did throw a perfect game against this same Astros squad only two months ago, and even after that in a start in July, he held them to one earned run over six-plus innings, while striking out six as well. I don’t see how it’s possible that this current Astros lineup can strike Cain for more than two runs, and even two runs would be generous. I usually look for the positives in a team or a player, but I can’t stick up for Houston any longer after what they’ve done to their organization this year - it is absolutely horrendous when you have Steve Pearce, who had trouble even making those awful Pirate teams from 2009 and 2010, suddenly bat in the heart of your order every single day. Guys like Scott Moore and Justin Maxwell (I always thought J-Max was a bit underrated, though) are cast-offs who get significant time batting in valuable spots in the lineup. That being said, I ask again: Just HOW is this team going to plate more a few runs against the great Matt Cain? I hate to say things are a lock because nothing ever is, but this is as close to one as you’re going to see: The Astros, just as they’ve proven multiple times this year, cannot hit a lick off the San Francisco ace. As a result, all we have to do is depend on a quality start, or even just a fine one, from Norris (Or do we? We can win with a 6-1 outcome), which I’m very confident we will get from him in this Tuesday night Houston setting.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - $46 for $40
Ricky Romero vs Phil Hughes
UNDER 9.5
Well, I wrote so much on my best bet that I’m actually fatigued, so I’ll try and keep this one to a minimum. This under actually has a little similarity to the one detailed above, as Ricky Romero, who has been worse than Bud Norris, is in a very similar scenario, except he’ll be matched up against a familiar foe on the road in one of the hardest ballparks to pitch in. Even so, I have confidence in Romero’s abilities. For years ever since his rookie campaign, Romero has been a dependable entity, even while spending all of his time in the feisty American League East, so I know he just hasn’t simply lost his talent. Yes, his numbers are horrendous, and he is coming off a start in which he walked a career-high eight (How does that even happen?), but from everything I read, he’s determined to turn this thing around and end his season on a positive note. He’s similar to Norris in that regard in that he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher; he’s almost a perfectionist of sorts, if you’ve ever watched his body language on the mound and how upset he gets, based on situations that potentially dictate his performance throughout the game. Concerning tonight, though, I had a good vibe that he’ll have a much-improved start, despite having to face the mightyYankees, who actually will be without a critical piece this evening in Mark Teixeira, so that’s a step forward there in the right direction already. As for Phil Hughes, he’s simply just been rock-solid. His numbers for the year don’t look extraordinary or anything, but you can say they have for, surprisingly, his home split stats, in which he’s registered a nice 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while going 9-3 in 13 starts at Yankee Stadium. I was hoping the line for this game would be 10, which protects us if it’s 6-4/7-3, but I think 9.5 should also be enough to secure this under victory.
Other 8/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Johnny Cueto vs Wade Miley OVER 8 - $22 for $20
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**