2012 MLB O/URecord: 22-23-2 (Started 2-7 so now you see me getting back into my rhythm)
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Third straight winning day yesterday after going 3-1-1, although I really should’ve been 4-0-1. I lost the Darvish vs Blackburn over by a half-run because the Twins couldn’t score with second and third and NO outs in the 9th, with the Rangers defense playing back, willing to sacrifice a run or two, since they were up four. But of course, the lowly Twins couldn’t even put the ball in play, and those runners were stranded. That’s why I never let my losing record get into my head in the early parts of this season, as bad breaks like thishave plagued me throughout the year already, but after this 9-4-2 stretch over the past few days, I feel like I’m getting back to my level. And I will continue that run and cross .500 today on what looks like a very good slate, one of which that will have my biggest bet of the season…
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (Biggest Bet of the Year)
Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek
UNDER 9.5
Wow,w hat a vibe I had for this game, and when I get really excited for an over/under, the results are almost always good. My jubilation came even beforeI saw the line, which is absolutely a half-run higher than it should be, as Iwas ready to load up even if the under was 9. Let me explain why I love this game so much.
First, we have Brian Matusz starting for Baltimore, and despite getting out to a rocky start to his 2012 season versus the Yankees, I still really, really like this spot for him. For one, he had a nice Spring Training, posting a 3.65 ERA in six starts, while registering 22 strikeouts in just under 25 innings. Furthermore, his off-start against rival New York may have only lasted four innings, but he was doing fine until he had one bad inning in the fourth. A lot of times, a pitcher’s start is often misconstrued because of one bad inning, so I can onlyhope Matusz didn’t lose any sort of confidence after an effective spring. He’s been a high-end prospect for awhile now, and I know he’s still capable of becoming a quality pitcher, which he has shown flashes of throughout the past couple of years. He’ll be at least fine here.
Facing the Oriole southpaw is Kyle Drabek, another player who has always had high potential as a top prospect, yet still hasn’t reached that level. Unlike Matusz, though, Drabek got out to a nice start for his 2012 season - a great sign for someone who struggled so much last year that he was sent down - when he allowed only three hits and one run over five-plus innings against the mighty Red Sox, picking up the win in the process. With that comes confidence,and Drabek has showed signs of becoming a dominant pitcher; there’s a reason hewas once a top prospect, especially when he came over from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay deal as the main player Toronto received in the trade. In addition, Drabek had a good spring so it appears perhaps he is on the road to fulfilling his potential this year, and with his confidence at a high right now, pitching at home, I’m confident he can build off his first start very successfully.
Let me repeat: This is my biggest bet of the season. It may actually end up as my biggest bet for the entire season, even as the months of the season pass by; that’s how strong my vibe is on this game. If there’s one bet you take from me in thee arly going, make it this one and go under 9.5.
Wow, I am so into this game that I just feel like I can’t write about any other game. In any case, here are my other bets on this beautiful Jackie Robinson Day (Which might be somewhat of a variable in a few games, by the way), which pale in comparison to the one above.
Other 4/15/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Mike Leakevs Ross Detwiler OVER 8
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8.5
Matt Moore vs Felix Doubront UNDER 9.5
Kevin Correia vs Ryan Vogelsong OVER 7
Chris Narveson vs Brandon Beachy OVER
Jerome Williams vs Ivan Nova OVER 10
JA Happ vs Anibal Sanchez UNDER 7.5
Graham Godfrey vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 (Remember what I said about Beaven being my No.1 sleeper this year. Small bet, though)
And just an aside on why I’m more dedicated and passionate when it comes to baseball over/unders than anybody else: When I was looking at these games last night and saw Happ vs Sanchez, the first thing I thought of was how they faced last year on a Sunday. Then I realized off the top of my head that they faced last year on the second Sunday of the season in Florida and the end result was an under… today is the second Sunday of the season as well with the same exact scenario. I mean, it’s only a small bet because the line is low (And I LOVE Happ as much as any pitcher in the bigs), but just something interesting to consider. How many other people in the country realized that fact off the top of their head?
**MayAdd More MLB Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
2011 MLB O/URecord: 366-270-42 (Proof & 27-Page Documentation Available Upon Request)
Third straight winning day yesterday after going 3-1-1, although I really should’ve been 4-0-1. I lost the Darvish vs Blackburn over by a half-run because the Twins couldn’t score with second and third and NO outs in the 9th, with the Rangers defense playing back, willing to sacrifice a run or two, since they were up four. But of course, the lowly Twins couldn’t even put the ball in play, and those runners were stranded. That’s why I never let my losing record get into my head in the early parts of this season, as bad breaks like thishave plagued me throughout the year already, but after this 9-4-2 stretch over the past few days, I feel like I’m getting back to my level. And I will continue that run and cross .500 today on what looks like a very good slate, one of which that will have my biggest bet of the season…
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (Biggest Bet of the Year)
Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek
UNDER 9.5
Wow,w hat a vibe I had for this game, and when I get really excited for an over/under, the results are almost always good. My jubilation came even beforeI saw the line, which is absolutely a half-run higher than it should be, as Iwas ready to load up even if the under was 9. Let me explain why I love this game so much.
First, we have Brian Matusz starting for Baltimore, and despite getting out to a rocky start to his 2012 season versus the Yankees, I still really, really like this spot for him. For one, he had a nice Spring Training, posting a 3.65 ERA in six starts, while registering 22 strikeouts in just under 25 innings. Furthermore, his off-start against rival New York may have only lasted four innings, but he was doing fine until he had one bad inning in the fourth. A lot of times, a pitcher’s start is often misconstrued because of one bad inning, so I can onlyhope Matusz didn’t lose any sort of confidence after an effective spring. He’s been a high-end prospect for awhile now, and I know he’s still capable of becoming a quality pitcher, which he has shown flashes of throughout the past couple of years. He’ll be at least fine here.
Facing the Oriole southpaw is Kyle Drabek, another player who has always had high potential as a top prospect, yet still hasn’t reached that level. Unlike Matusz, though, Drabek got out to a nice start for his 2012 season - a great sign for someone who struggled so much last year that he was sent down - when he allowed only three hits and one run over five-plus innings against the mighty Red Sox, picking up the win in the process. With that comes confidence,and Drabek has showed signs of becoming a dominant pitcher; there’s a reason hewas once a top prospect, especially when he came over from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay deal as the main player Toronto received in the trade. In addition, Drabek had a good spring so it appears perhaps he is on the road to fulfilling his potential this year, and with his confidence at a high right now, pitching at home, I’m confident he can build off his first start very successfully.
Let me repeat: This is my biggest bet of the season. It may actually end up as my biggest bet for the entire season, even as the months of the season pass by; that’s how strong my vibe is on this game. If there’s one bet you take from me in thee arly going, make it this one and go under 9.5.
Wow, I am so into this game that I just feel like I can’t write about any other game. In any case, here are my other bets on this beautiful Jackie Robinson Day (Which might be somewhat of a variable in a few games, by the way), which pale in comparison to the one above.
Other 4/15/12MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking (In Order)
Mike Leakevs Ross Detwiler OVER 8
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Luis Mendoza OVER 8.5
Matt Moore vs Felix Doubront UNDER 9.5
Kevin Correia vs Ryan Vogelsong OVER 7
Chris Narveson vs Brandon Beachy OVER
Jerome Williams vs Ivan Nova OVER 10
JA Happ vs Anibal Sanchez UNDER 7.5
Graham Godfrey vs Blake Beaven UNDER 7 (Remember what I said about Beaven being my No.1 sleeper this year. Small bet, though)
And just an aside on why I’m more dedicated and passionate when it comes to baseball over/unders than anybody else: When I was looking at these games last night and saw Happ vs Sanchez, the first thing I thought of was how they faced last year on a Sunday. Then I realized off the top of my head that they faced last year on the second Sunday of the season in Florida and the end result was an under… today is the second Sunday of the season as well with the same exact scenario. I mean, it’s only a small bet because the line is low (And I LOVE Happ as much as any pitcher in the bigs), but just something interesting to consider. How many other people in the country realized that fact off the top of their head?
**MayAdd More MLB Over/Unders Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**