The Blue Ribbon Yearbook has arrived!

[GoSooners]

Got mine today ladies and germs. I just started looking at it. But here's what their top 25 looks like:

1.Ohio State
2.Georgia
3.USC
4.Oklahoma
5.Missouri
6.Florida
7.Clemson
8.LSU
9.Texas
10.Auburn
11.West Virginia
12.Texas Tech
13.Virginia Tech
14.Tennessee
15.BYU
16.Illinois
17.Kansas
18.Arizona St.
19.USF
20.Oregon
21.Michigan
22.Rutgers
23.Wisconsin
24.Cincinnati
25.Wake Forest

There are a couple I disagree with..Cincy, Michigan and Texas are probably rated a tad too high..And maybe Florida and USF a bit too low..But overall I think they have it about right.

 

[ToujoursPret]

Mine arrived today, too. My first one ever. Was wondering why it was $22.00 - lot's more than the others. Now I know. Only advertising is in the cover. Will need more than one holiday to read it.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Yep, got mine this week also and have been reading/capping the MAC most of today.

Mentioned to Coach LT to pick up a copy, but he for sure isnt going to since I informed him BR is picking Georgia over Florida.

BR also doesnt write about pointspreads, angles, and trends that alot of gamblers like to read.

BR is for cappers that want information from a credible source, in its purest form.



:fballch3:

 

[Jetplane]

Go Georgia!

 

[GoSooners]

With 4 SEC teams in the top 10 something's gotta give. And OSU number 1 and not another Big 10 team until you get way down to #16 Illinois..Looks like they have free reign to win their conference. The only thing holding them back is USC. Same with USC..The next closest team is #18 ASU.

 

[Jetplane]

I don't know if they play USF or not... but OSU could potentially have problems with their squad.

 

[Conan]

This list actually makes a lot of sense.

The more I think about it, the more some scenarios likely to happen this season seem to be taking shape.

First offf, there's the USC/OSU game.

Basically winner take all unless USC squeaks one out or barely escapes a loss vs OSU and Georgia lays a solid thumping on ASU. Georgia prevails but for how long? So the winner of the OSU-USC game ends up with the spoils of the SEC wars. Probability tells me that it will be USC... but then compare the Trojan's schedule to OSU's, especially conference play. Advantage OSU. But should they lose the USC game, running the table with an easy schedule might not mean enough.

Add to that the Georgia/ASU game which presents an opportunity for the Bulldogs to rise above everyone else pretty conclusively if they can survive their conference.

The possibility presents itself that we might not have an undefeated #1 team this year. I'd give USC the best shot from the top few teams with OSU next if they can beat USC, get past Wisky and perhaps one other B-10 spoiler. However USC will have a tougher road than the rest, save for the gauntlet Georgia has to run to survive with zero or just one loss.

I just hope we don't get a rash of losses at the top to confuse everything and piss off a lot of teams that were arguably just as deserving as the two that got in last season.

HAH! I'm probably dreaming that the BCS will have it so easy.

 

[GreenDoberman]

I don't get the Blue Ribbon for football but pick up a copy of the basketball yearbook faithfully every year from the Gambler's Book Store. If the football is anywhere near the quality of the basketball it is well worth the price.

 

[hm2.0]

I used to pick up BR for b-ball and also for football until it went on brief hiatus.

Don't get me wrong, it's a quality publication, but I don't think it's required reading.

CFN provides a more concise preview. Yeah, they need an editor - Fiutak, in particular, needs to take some remedial english courses - but it's good and free.

http://cfn.scout.com/

 

[CoachCB]

Is Clemson going to be that good??

---

 

[GoSooners]

Is Clemson going to be that good??

---

Clemson is talented enough to win the ACC...But the big thing that could keep them from getting in the BCS Championship game is a cupcake OOC schedule, along with the conference in general probably being a bit down this year..My best guess is they'll win the conference and end up playing in the Orange Bowl.

 

[GoSooners]

Clemson is talented enough to win the ACC...But the big thing that could keep them from getting in the BCS Championship game is a cupcake OOC schedule, along with the conference in general probably being a bit down this year..My best guess is they'll win the conference and end up playing in the Orange Bowl.

Sorry, I was looking at Clemson's last year's schedule..This year's looks much better with Bama and SC as their OOC teams. If they can beat those two teams and win their conference, then would could be talking about BCS title game..

 

[SundayTiger]

I got my BR yearbook this week as well. I am a first time user of the yearbook, and bought it out of recommendation from people at theRX. Been reading thru it, mostly of teams that I follow and think there is alot of great unbiased info in it.

I see some of you guys are already capping. My question is, how can you even begin to cap games before you see a line?

 

[Conan]

I got my BR yearbook this week as well. I am a first time user of the yearbook, and bought it out of recommendation from people at theRX. Been reading thru it, mostly of teams that I follow and think there is alot of great unbiased info in it.

I see some of you guys are already capping. My question is, how can you even begin to cap games before you see a line?

I think when the games are lined, some people will already have a feel for the game. Good value will stick out like a sore thumb. That's the idea.

 

[SoonerBS]

I got my BR yearbook this week as well. I am a first time user of the yearbook, and bought it out of recommendation from people at theRX. Been reading thru it, mostly of teams that I follow and think there is alot of great unbiased info in it.

I see some of you guys are already capping. My question is, how can you even begin to cap games before you see a line?

I have had several posters ask me this on my site, so I'll give you my posted answer to them:

First, my handicapping begins by gathering info and researching teams from the start of April whenever they start their Spring football sessions. You cannot learn everything you need to know from these sessions, but you do get some idea as to what the coaches are going to use personnel-wise for the upcoming season. You can also gather some info on what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they intend to run if they have intentions of changing them from the previous season. From April to the start of the first game, it is also important to keep a log of injuries, suspensions, transfers and other business that causes the absence of key personnel on each team. I usually spend the Summer reading articles about each team from the internet, Phil Steele's magazine, and Blue Ribbon Magazine.

Secondly, I try to find some great situations through the season for each team where there will likely be mismatches, "look ahead" spots, or revenge games that I can play on. This helps me to assess further the strengths and weaknesses of each team so I can increase my knowledge on them. This also helps me to know what teams are likely to be "fade" teams for the season, "play on" teams for the season, "UNDER" teams for the season, and "OVER" teams for the season.

Thirdly, I look for factors that will help me in my evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of teams. Personally, my handicapping of strength and weakness in a team begins with the offensive and defensive lines. Skill players, no matter how great they are, cannot perform without solid offensive lines. A good case of this was Colt McCoy for Texas. In 2006, Texas fans were touting his greatness due to the fantastic season he had as a freshman. What was not observed was the fact that he was playing behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever to play at Texas. Last season, many of those offensive linemen moved on. McCoy's numbers and production took a nose-dive because his protection was not as great with the weakness of the offensive line (that should improve this season by the way . . . ). Defensively, offenses can establish the run game against a weak defensive line. If a team can establish the run game, it opens the entire offense up to success. So, the lines are important to me whenever I start to assess how strong a team will be. Of course, you have to have good skill players as well (QB, RB, and WR). From there the linebacking corps and defensive backs need to be assessed. A team with a piss-poor defensive backfield will be slaughtered when playing a good passing team (Anyone remember Louisville last season?) Also, special team play has become very important in college football and should be assessed for the strength and weakness of a team. Other factors are coaching and roster depth (you can find this in Phil Steele's magazine).

By the time I come to the games and through the season, I look for situations (revenge, look-ahead, previous game let-downs, rivalry, etc.) to help me decide whether a line is worth playing. I am mostly a "situational" player myself. I love to play against teams in "look ahead" spots where they are going to be playing somebody better than their present opponent and I love to play on teams that lost or didn't cover the week before because they played well below their potential. I also like to fade teams in a game where the week before they played way over their heads.

I look at factors such as power rankings and trends in games to see if anything is way out of whack with a line. However, last season wreaked havoc on power ratings. BUT, last season was an unusual season and I don't think we are likely to see it as a norm.

There is also an element that cannot be explained by numbers, trends or situations. It's called the "gut" factor. Last year in Bowl season, I dropped a lot of my normal handicapping (mainly because it didn't produce well last year) and went mostly to the "gut" factor. I relied more on my knowledge of the strength and weaknesses of teams and played on teams that I felt were more powerful and likely to cover the spread. It ended up being vastly productive! Even more interesting is the fact that I used this same factor whenever I switched over to capping the NBA. The results were to end the season at 60% (would have been even better had I quit before the playoffs started -sigh-). I can't explain to you how to go by your gut instincts. In fact, some people's guts stink! (Pardon the pun). My gut instincts are always based on nearly 10 months of continual research and knowledge on college football.

Lastly, how do we judge whether a line is worth playing or not? Let me start by mentioning this -- Vegas is very good at setting lines on games. I think (and this is what I learned from last season) that we need to stop analyzing lines as much as simply accepting that the line is right. Now, we need to ask ourselves, since the line is right, which team, because of situations, strengths, weaknesses, offensive and defensive schemes, personnel, or otherwise is most likely to play better than the other and cover the line. I know that sounds too simplistic, but I think sometimes we make this more difficult than we need to do. Again, this has to be done by having knowledge on the teams playing and looking for motivating factors that might give one team an edge over others. Let me help you eliminate some games: it's not wise to play on a "road" favorite laying a bunch of points ever, I don't care how good they are and how great the line may look. Always play on teams that have a great chance of winning the game straight up and are catching points at home (you will not likely find this situation often, but occasionally it does occur.) Do not play on teams that are in a "rebuilding" year at the beginning of the season. However, monitor their progress because the losses they had the beginning of the season can easily turn into wins at the end of the season as the team gets more experience and plays better. Vegas usually sets good "dog" lines on these teams because of the way they started their season. Do not play on teams that have sucked all season long but catch what looks like a great line in one of their closing games.Whenever you have games where two teams of equal strengths and situations are playing and the line is close to a "pick 'em", play on the team with the most capable coach. Again, you need to have knowledge of the teams and coaches to implement this. Do not play against teams that are playing their last home game of the season. Also known as "Senior Day." These teams are usually highly motivated and need to be played on rather than against. Fade teams that are playing their first game on the road with a new starting QB.

 

[SoonerBS]

One of the things I might add to the above thoughts is that during the month of August through December, I am on the ESPN Insider "site lines" daily to read local newspaper articles on teams. It's there that you get a lot of thoughts from players and coaches on where their heads are at about the previous game and the upcoming game. It helps to know if motivation is high or low. You can pick up a lot of valuable info this way. It's time consuming, but worth it.

 

[FairWarning]

I was reading post 15 off your site last night Sooner. Good stuff for everyone. Lays a good outline to the season, what to look for.

 

[mrhognuts2]

sooner,where is yer forum?..........a good soldier is always prepared....'keep the continue'

 

[SoonerBS]

sooner,where is yer forum?..........a good soldier is always prepared....'keep the continue'

Out of respect to this site and its rules I will not be mentioning it. I post a lot of the same things on both forums during the offseason anyway.

:toast:

 

[Jetplane]

sooner,where is yer forum?..........a good soldier is always prepared....'keep the continue'

"PROFILE"

And BS, I really do hear you on the "line is right" concept. When I adjust the line, it's because of those other factors that you mentioned. Vegas is just uncanny with their lines--but when I find positives and negatives... I move the line at my discretion to paint the picture of who has the edge on the line. The best of us who may find a HUGE EDGE have found ourselves on the losing end also.