Thank Bozzie.
We had an avatar bet on the election. Winner got to choose for the other guy.
He got me good. He sucks. But not as bad as Nancy Pelosi, the Supreme Bitch. Hope she offers you guys some $15.00 / pint ice cream when you go visit her in Frisco. She'd poison mine.
Six months of pain for me every time I post.
Did I say Bozzie sucks.
Pretty funny that...
1. this statement wasn't even true when you posted it.
2. the market (sp500) is up every single day but 1 since you posted it, including 6 straight days now.
Not even saying its because Biden is the president. I don't think that just so we are clear before this gets into politics.
I made a killing today as did my dad and my brother both of which were mulling lowering their exposure a week are so ago because they are ultra conservatives and are rooting against Biden imo. And a side note my brother is an attorney very successful and handled bankruptcy for his firm. Obama’s 2nd term they had to let him go he wasn’t billing enough hours lol. He sat on his ass watching CNBC and making a killing on stocks. You guys can sit it out and root for the worst if you like but I’m going full throttle.
agree. I will say I have some cash on the sidelines right now but it’s about 5% of my portfolio. I’ll go ahead and stay invested no matter who the president is. I’m fully aware there will be a pullback at some point but I’m supposed to miss another 30% up in fear of a 20% pullback. Nah, I’ll just keep my money in the market. Keep in mind I’m not a trader, I buy shit with the intention of holding it for years. If someone is a trader then I can kind of understand where they are coming from.
engage his brain? his 17 year contribution to therxforum is keeping bookiereport's SUPER MONSTER record
slimy bitch fights with his family and friends because Trump sends mean tweets. ha ha, what a flake
Oh look Dr. Joyce is back. Someone has a hard on for me. What an obsession. Dumb ass hick.
Page | 2 KEDM March 6, 2021
www.KEDM.com
Kuppy’s Kliff Notes
Too busy to read everything? Kuppy summarizes the most interesting and actionable Event-Driven information of the week/month.
KEDM hadn’t been around long enough for readers to experience how various strategies can go from bleeding capital to stunningly lucrative in a hurry. One of the goals of KEDM is to flag these changes in real time as the best returns tend to be when a strategy goes from terrible to stunningly juicy while no one else is putting it on anymore. With that in mind, look at all the orange on Upcoming Unlock Monitor. IPO unlocks are suddenly where the Alpha is. Sure, you can get a RKT every once in a while when insiders don’t sell enough (see Post Mortem below), but focus on the ones without huge short interest and buybacks and there may be a lot of Alpha; we are working hard to firm up this monitor so stay tuned.
After months of warnings in previous KEDMs, the bottom finally fell out of the Ponzi Sector this week. Despite a late day NASDAQ save on Friday, most of the Ponzis were still down on the day and down dramatically on the week. My hunch is that the top is in for SPACs and to a lesser extent most Ponzis. We probably have a bit of a bounce, failing rally and then lights out. I know these things have 100-200 IV and the siren song of Theta will pull you in, but this is different from prior washouts where writing puts were a gimme. I really think it’s done this time, so be careful. Then again, at over 100 IV, it’s hard to lose money if you are disciplined at rolling down when in the money. Am I shorting? Hell no!! Just watching and mostly laughing. If you want some free money, look at all the pre-deal SPACs with option chains (Announced SPACs). A bunch of them will not complete deals before March and even April expiration; meanwhile, those $10-strike puts just got awful juicy to write as SPAC IVs exploded. 5-15% a month to insure some T-bills seems kinda batshit to me.
Page | 3 KEDM March 6, 2021
I don’t know why I take so much pleasure in the “ARKK of the Ponzis” sinking, but I really do. Oddly, we seemed to have top ticked the Ponzi Sector bubble when we added the Crazy Cathie scanner here at KEDM...
• Removing AM from Fallen Angels as it has effectively doubled since added. I believe the reduced dividend probably caps it here.
• Removing AR from Fallen Angels as it has effectively tripled since added. While there is likely more upside, oil in the $60s will bring on more drilling and additional NGL supply. Despite their protestations, AR is an NGL company (gas is hedged) and I don’t see how NGL pricing as a % of WTI gets much better from here.
• Removing GRPN from Fallen Angels as it has effectively tripled since added.
• Recent Spin-off AAN just announced a $150m buyback. Chart is a nice saucer base that it’s breaking out
of.
• CTHR cluster buy is interesting as I have always thought this business should do better than it has done. There’s new mgmt. in place and insiders keep buying.
The number of busted recent IPOs (Completed IPO Monitor) is suddenly going parabolic (orange highlights). Remember, once it drops below pricing, there’s millions of stranded shares that cap the stock on any move higher and usually become sellers on a move lower. If you’re looking for a low-risk Beta hedge, a basket of these with a stop at pricing is about as good as it gets. Note that pages 37 and 38 also have the upcoming traditional lock-ups in yellow with more on the Unlock Monitor:
• I’m going to flag the AFRM, SNOW and DASH unlocks. They have everything wrong with them except a bit of shorts already positioned. Overvalued concept stock, huge blocks for sale, Ponzi Sector getting pounded and not far off all-time lows at which point every shareholder is stranded.
• 36 secondaries this week. The insiders know to sell when the selling is still good. This sort of supply is finally starting to overwhelm the market. I’m going to once again repeat that when a biotech drug works, you buy the secondary for a pop in the weeks after the offering. In this case, MORF is trading right at pricing.
• Normally when a company changes CEOs, it’s for the better. In the case of TRQ, Rio Tinto fired Ulf Quellman who I met with and thought was the first CEO of that company with an actual backbone. He stood up to Rio Tinto when they looted TRQ and got pushed out. This is a terrible day for corporate governance and makes TRQ simply un-ownable.
• On Bankruptcies, HTZGQ has over a $100m MC despite equity-holders getting zeroed. Not sure if anyone is willing to short this, but if you can hold on, we now know the previously obvious outcome...
Much like when an IPO breaks below pricing, completed SPACs have the magic floor at $10 (except PSTH as Ackman is ‘special’). A surprisingly large number of these have now broken under $10. Same rules as IPOs. Basket Beta shorts with a stop at $10 should do surprisingly well—especially as these are mostly worth a discount to cash raised (that cash will be incinerated or stolen). Want to know how bad it is in SPACville? There’s not one warrant arb situation for the first time in almost a year. Congrats to team KEDM!! We arbed these things away... haha
www.KEDM.com
Page | 4 KEDM March 6, 2021
Kliff Note Post Mortems
• On 10/24 Kuppy added both $AR and $AM to his list of Fallen Angel’s noting the following, “Large production base in Marcellus. Best mgmt team in gas. Working to roll near-term debt maturities. Hedged on gas until 2022. If there is a recovery in NGLs, AR is most exposed. 2nd best way to play gas recovering beyond 2021 besides SD.” Since then, Natural Gas and energy bottomed pushing AR up 200+% and $AM appx. 70%
• Those of you that follow us on Twitter saw our post on $RKT (click here to follow). On 1/23/2021, Kuppy flagged $RKT in his Kliff Notes, saying “RKT unlocks in 2 weeks. There’s a lot of stock potentially coming to market and we are likely past peak cycle earnings that justified the IPO valuation. Chart looks saggy [but] could be interesting as short interest is 32% of the float in anticipation of sloppy trading....If the unlock underwhelms, could go the other way. Feb $20 straddle is $2.70 and probably under $2 as we approach unlock. I expect some pin-action one way or the other.” While off by a month, we got the noted “pin action” when it squeezed 100% in 3 days.
• On 11/7/2020, Kuppy flagged $GRPN on his Fallen Angels list saying, “Turnaround situation with new mgmt. Clean balance sheet and with COVID, I suspect many businesses will push product through GRPN to make up for lost business. Could be attractive turn-around. The Groupon brand is likely worth many multiples of the current price to an acquirer.” The week of Kuppy’s note, the stock bottomed and has since climbed over 200%+
www.KEDM.com
Kuppy’s Kliff Notes
Too busy to read everything? Kuppy summarizes the most interesting and actionable Event-Driven information of the week/month.
KEDM hadn’t been around long enough for readers to experience how various strategies can go from bleeding capital to stunningly lucrative in a hurry. One of the goals of KEDM is to flag these changes in real time as the best returns tend to be when a strategy goes from terrible to stunningly juicy while no one else is putting it on anymore. With that in mind, look at all the orange on Upcoming Unlock Monitor. IPO unlocks are suddenly where the Alpha is. Sure, you can get a RKT every once in a while when insiders don’t sell enough (see Post Mortem below), but focus on the ones without huge short interest and buybacks and there may be a lot of Alpha; we are working hard to firm up this monitor so stay tuned.
After months of warnings in previous KEDMs, the bottom finally fell out of the Ponzi Sector this week. Despite a late day NASDAQ save on Friday, most of the Ponzis were still down on the day and down dramatically on the week. My hunch is that the top is in for SPACs and to a lesser extent most Ponzis. We probably have a bit of a bounce, failing rally and then lights out. I know these things have 100-200 IV and the siren song of Theta will pull you in, but this is different from prior washouts where writing puts were a gimme. I really think it’s done this time, so be careful. Then again, at over 100 IV, it’s hard to lose money if you are disciplined at rolling down when in the money. Am I shorting? Hell no!! Just watching and mostly laughing. If you want some free money, look at all the pre-deal SPACs with option chains (Announced SPACs). A bunch of them will not complete deals before March and even April expiration; meanwhile, those $10-strike puts just got awful juicy to write as SPAC IVs exploded. 5-15% a month to insure some T-bills seems kinda batshit to me.
Page | 3 KEDM March 6, 2021
I don’t know why I take so much pleasure in the “ARKK of the Ponzis” sinking, but I really do. Oddly, we seemed to have top ticked the Ponzi Sector bubble when we added the Crazy Cathie scanner here at KEDM...
• Removing AM from Fallen Angels as it has effectively doubled since added. I believe the reduced dividend probably caps it here.
• Removing AR from Fallen Angels as it has effectively tripled since added. While there is likely more upside, oil in the $60s will bring on more drilling and additional NGL supply. Despite their protestations, AR is an NGL company (gas is hedged) and I don’t see how NGL pricing as a % of WTI gets much better from here.
• Removing GRPN from Fallen Angels as it has effectively tripled since added.
• Recent Spin-off AAN just announced a $150m buyback. Chart is a nice saucer base that it’s breaking out
of.
• CTHR cluster buy is interesting as I have always thought this business should do better than it has done. There’s new mgmt. in place and insiders keep buying.
The number of busted recent IPOs (Completed IPO Monitor) is suddenly going parabolic (orange highlights). Remember, once it drops below pricing, there’s millions of stranded shares that cap the stock on any move higher and usually become sellers on a move lower. If you’re looking for a low-risk Beta hedge, a basket of these with a stop at pricing is about as good as it gets. Note that pages 37 and 38 also have the upcoming traditional lock-ups in yellow with more on the Unlock Monitor:
• I’m going to flag the AFRM, SNOW and DASH unlocks. They have everything wrong with them except a bit of shorts already positioned. Overvalued concept stock, huge blocks for sale, Ponzi Sector getting pounded and not far off all-time lows at which point every shareholder is stranded.
• 36 secondaries this week. The insiders know to sell when the selling is still good. This sort of supply is finally starting to overwhelm the market. I’m going to once again repeat that when a biotech drug works, you buy the secondary for a pop in the weeks after the offering. In this case, MORF is trading right at pricing.
• Normally when a company changes CEOs, it’s for the better. In the case of TRQ, Rio Tinto fired Ulf Quellman who I met with and thought was the first CEO of that company with an actual backbone. He stood up to Rio Tinto when they looted TRQ and got pushed out. This is a terrible day for corporate governance and makes TRQ simply un-ownable.
• On Bankruptcies, HTZGQ has over a $100m MC despite equity-holders getting zeroed. Not sure if anyone is willing to short this, but if you can hold on, we now know the previously obvious outcome...
Much like when an IPO breaks below pricing, completed SPACs have the magic floor at $10 (except PSTH as Ackman is ‘special’). A surprisingly large number of these have now broken under $10. Same rules as IPOs. Basket Beta shorts with a stop at $10 should do surprisingly well—especially as these are mostly worth a discount to cash raised (that cash will be incinerated or stolen). Want to know how bad it is in SPACville? There’s not one warrant arb situation for the first time in almost a year. Congrats to team KEDM!! We arbed these things away... haha
www.KEDM.com
Page | 4 KEDM March 6, 2021
Kliff Note Post Mortems
• On 10/24 Kuppy added both $AR and $AM to his list of Fallen Angel’s noting the following, “Large production base in Marcellus. Best mgmt team in gas. Working to roll near-term debt maturities. Hedged on gas until 2022. If there is a recovery in NGLs, AR is most exposed. 2nd best way to play gas recovering beyond 2021 besides SD.” Since then, Natural Gas and energy bottomed pushing AR up 200+% and $AM appx. 70%
• Those of you that follow us on Twitter saw our post on $RKT (click here to follow). On 1/23/2021, Kuppy flagged $RKT in his Kliff Notes, saying “RKT unlocks in 2 weeks. There’s a lot of stock potentially coming to market and we are likely past peak cycle earnings that justified the IPO valuation. Chart looks saggy [but] could be interesting as short interest is 32% of the float in anticipation of sloppy trading....If the unlock underwhelms, could go the other way. Feb $20 straddle is $2.70 and probably under $2 as we approach unlock. I expect some pin-action one way or the other.” While off by a month, we got the noted “pin action” when it squeezed 100% in 3 days.
• On 11/7/2020, Kuppy flagged $GRPN on his Fallen Angels list saying, “Turnaround situation with new mgmt. Clean balance sheet and with COVID, I suspect many businesses will push product through GRPN to make up for lost business. Could be attractive turn-around. The Groupon brand is likely worth many multiples of the current price to an acquirer.” The week of Kuppy’s note, the stock bottomed and has since climbed over 200%+
Ticker Company Sector
Armstrong Flooring, Inc. produces flooring products. The
Company designs, manufactures, and sells resilient and
wood flooring products for residential, commercial, and -19 2 113 75 institutional construction sectors. Armstrong Flooring
serves customers globally.
AFI
Armstrong Bldg&Construct Flooring Inc Prod-Misc
188 -
Not highly leveraged, new CEO with turnaround plan (big CEO insider buys). Big growing TAM with residential demand taking off/offset by commercial weakness. Q3 sales were weak and SGA elevated as the business transitions. Q4 was an absolute trainwreck. There's reason to believe that there's light at the end of the tunnel and this is the worst of it. If not...?? Sold South Gate property for $76.7 million which dramatically de-levers the business and buys time for the turn-around.
Mid-stream component of AR. Insiders recently dumped all of theirs so dividend cut may be imminent. Still is cheap on cash flow and AR is much healthier than previously. Will be removed next week as it doubled.
Large production base in Marcellus. Best mgmt team in gas. Working to roll near-term debt maturities and recently called 2021 paper. Hedged on gas until 2022. If there is a recovery in NGLs, AR is most exposed. 2nd best way to play gas recovering beyond 2021 besides SD. Q3 results were strong with strong cash flow guidance for Q4. Has unwound some forward FT committments and current committments are now a strong asset vs liability in past as Marcellus basin differentials have blown out. Has successfully completed the roll of the 2021/2022 maturity wall. Recently did an offering to further de-lever. Will be removed next week as it tripled.
Antero Resources Corporation explores, develops, and
produces oil and natural gas. The Company focuses on the
acquisition, development, and production of -4 13 2,976 5,616 unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas properties.
Antero Resources serves customers in the United States.
AR
Antero Oil Comp- Resources Corp Explor&Prodtn
8,915 -
AM
Antero Midstream Corp
Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets. The Company offers gathering and compressions, water distribution,
3 4,512 3,091
7,603 -
Pipelines -2 clearwater facility, fractionation, and pipeline safety
services. Antero Midstream serves customers in North America.
ARLP
coal to United States utilities and industrial users. The
Coal -13
1 735 554
1,301 -
Alliance Resource Partners LP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. produces and markets
Best in class low cost thermal coal play. Reasonably clean balance sheet with focus on de-leveraging. High insider ownership. If nat gas pricing improves, ARLP is likely a multi-bagger, with minimal near-term risk. Q3 results were quite strong with recovering production/sales volume and guidance for 2021 of continued recovery. Focus is on de-leveraging which will reduce interest expense. Once revolver is paid off in Q1/2021, focus is on buying back sr bond at 70c or shares at less than 1x FCF.
Company operates its facilities in Kentucky, Illinois, and Maryland.
BOCH Bank of Cyprus Commer Banks LN Holdings PLC Non-US
Bank of Cyprus Holdings Public Limited Company operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and commercial banking, finance, factoring, investment banking, brokerage, fund management, insurance, and other related services. Bank of Cyprus Holdings se
Armstrong Flooring, Inc. produces flooring products. The
Company designs, manufactures, and sells resilient and
wood flooring products for residential, commercial, and -19 2 113 75 institutional construction sectors. Armstrong Flooring
serves customers globally.
AFI
Armstrong Bldg&Construct Flooring Inc Prod-Misc
188 -
Not highly leveraged, new CEO with turnaround plan (big CEO insider buys). Big growing TAM with residential demand taking off/offset by commercial weakness. Q3 sales were weak and SGA elevated as the business transitions. Q4 was an absolute trainwreck. There's reason to believe that there's light at the end of the tunnel and this is the worst of it. If not...?? Sold South Gate property for $76.7 million which dramatically de-levers the business and buys time for the turn-around.
Mid-stream component of AR. Insiders recently dumped all of theirs so dividend cut may be imminent. Still is cheap on cash flow and AR is much healthier than previously. Will be removed next week as it doubled.
Large production base in Marcellus. Best mgmt team in gas. Working to roll near-term debt maturities and recently called 2021 paper. Hedged on gas until 2022. If there is a recovery in NGLs, AR is most exposed. 2nd best way to play gas recovering beyond 2021 besides SD. Q3 results were strong with strong cash flow guidance for Q4. Has unwound some forward FT committments and current committments are now a strong asset vs liability in past as Marcellus basin differentials have blown out. Has successfully completed the roll of the 2021/2022 maturity wall. Recently did an offering to further de-lever. Will be removed next week as it tripled.
Antero Resources Corporation explores, develops, and
produces oil and natural gas. The Company focuses on the
acquisition, development, and production of -4 13 2,976 5,616 unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas properties.
Antero Resources serves customers in the United States.
AR
Antero Oil Comp- Resources Corp Explor&Prodtn
8,915 -
AM
Antero Midstream Corp
Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets. The Company offers gathering and compressions, water distribution,
3 4,512 3,091
7,603 -
Pipelines -2 clearwater facility, fractionation, and pipeline safety
services. Antero Midstream serves customers in North America.
ARLP
coal to United States utilities and industrial users. The
Coal -13
1 735 554
1,301 -
Alliance Resource Partners LP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. produces and markets
Best in class low cost thermal coal play. Reasonably clean balance sheet with focus on de-leveraging. High insider ownership. If nat gas pricing improves, ARLP is likely a multi-bagger, with minimal near-term risk. Q3 results were quite strong with recovering production/sales volume and guidance for 2021 of continued recovery. Focus is on de-leveraging which will reduce interest expense. Once revolver is paid off in Q1/2021, focus is on buying back sr bond at 70c or shares at less than 1x FCF.
Company operates its facilities in Kentucky, Illinois, and Maryland.
BOCH Bank of Cyprus Commer Banks LN Holdings PLC Non-US
Bank of Cyprus Holdings Public Limited Company operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and commercial banking, finance, factoring, investment banking, brokerage, fund management, insurance, and other related services. Bank of Cyprus Holdings se
