The best thread ever posted on the Rx- "trap games"

[ESQAJM]

<table id="post5925037" class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td class="alt1" id="td_post_5925037" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"> I wrote the post below, yesterday on VegasDave's thread. I had previously written two other similar posts in other people's threads picking Oakland last week and Arizona over Dallas the week before. All 3 were straight up underdog winners. Maybe there is something to this. I don't know. But I'll keep it going for a while and see how it plays out. This week I'll make my own thread for it by continuing my posting in this thread.




The best thread that I ever read on this board was one written several years ago by Don Dollars in which he discussed a system of picking "trap" games every week.
These are games that look too easy to be true.
In his thread he picked 1 game a week and hit a winner for 10 weeks in a row. Then he stopped posting.
His record was 10-0.

I've been using some of the basic concepts of his system on and off over the years, but I found myself into it more this year for some reason. I know its been winning for me this season but I have no records. It hit Oakland last week and the winner the week before. I'm not sure which game it was-just that it won-I think it was Arizona over Dallas, but I'm not bothering to check it. I discussed both games in someone else's thread and pointed out that they were "trap" games.

Don Dollars had 3 or 4 criterion of what made a "trap" game.
I remember 2 of them. The basic rules are :

1. Find a team that the public follows and is considered
to be a good team in the public's perception;
2. The betting is coming in heavily on the public's team and the line is moving in the opposite direction.

I think that's what we have here. The public is starting to get behind Buffalo and considers them one of the better teams in the NFL.
Between 85% and 90% of the bets are on Buffalo and yet the line moved down from 1.5 or 2 to 1 where it is now.

I agree with VegasDave and will make this my "trap" play for this week.

Just to get the record straight, I personally like Buffalo to win this game and would have bet them except for this "trap" game system. Therefore I am not giving this game out as a play-I'm just providing information.
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[Jetplane]

Miami was the play anyway > hehe... but yes--those criteria should be used to determine a "trap" game but I didn't feel this was that much of a trap. Trap games are usually associated with *POWER* teams such as INDY/DAL, as according to me anyway.

If you see any more, let us know!

 

[iamunkn0wn]

then are u considering tonites MNF is a "trap game"?:wink:

 

[ESQAJM]

Jet: As I explained above a "trap" game is associated with a team which is a good team in the public's perception. It does not have to be a power team.

Iam: How can you even think its a trap game when the betting % is about 55-45 in favor of Tenn and the line moved from 3.5 to 4. This is normal. If the line would have gone down to 3 or 2.5 then it would be considered as a possible trap game.

 

[EXPCAPPER]

if anything it looks more like a trap for those liking the colts + 4...:nohead:

 

[Jetplane]

Well technically TENN should be a "public" team as they are undefeated at home on MNF.

The line did move from -4 to -3.5; alwhile money is on TENN (reverse movement)

So by your standards it should be a trap game unless ur saying it has to move by > .5 or something. I'm not sure if it is or not. I'm betting the TITANS for a small/normal amount, no big news for me.

 

[powerz]

Well technically TENN should be a "public" team as they are undefeated at home on MNF.

The line did move from -4 to -3.5; alwhile money is on TENN (reverse movement)

So by your standards it should be a trap game unless ur saying it has to move by > .5 or something. I'm not sure if it is or not. I'm betting the TITANS for a small/normal amount, no big news for me.

I think you are trying to ram a square peg into a round hole - where are you seeing -3.5? it is -4 everywhere.

I think you'll see a Tenn Win but no cover - Tenn by 3


gl powers

 

[rolltide]

it's basically 4 everywhere and public is on Tenn by b/w 53-55% from what i saw. hardly a reverse line move

 

[Jetplane]

I think you are trying to ram a square peg into a round hole - where are you seeing -3.5? it is -4 everywhere.

I think you'll see a Tenn Win but no cover - Tenn by 3


gl powers

Yesterday it was at -3.5 for a while, I have LV witnesses lol. But for 98% the line has been live, it's been at -4, yes.

 

[Jetplane]

it's basically 4 everywhere and public is on Tenn by b/w 53-55% from what i saw. hardly a reverse line move

Well, I never know who is a RELIABLE source because money is bet differently everywhere... but they said they saw the % at 40/60 TENN. Which I would have called a mediocre reverse.

 

[swish4290]

this seems like a great system!
post all the trap games you find..:toast:

 

[ESQAJM]

A game wouldn't even be considered a "trap" game unless at least 75% of the money was being bet on it.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

A game wouldn't even be considered a "trap" game unless at least 75% of the money was being bet on it.

I agree you need close to 70% to be a trap. For example, the BYU vs. TCU game a couple weeks ago. 70% were all over BYU and the line moved in their favor 2 more points. The game was over by the 2nd quarter...

Especially when 70% is on the visiting team. I'd love to see the numbers based off that scenario how often the public looses.

 

[Timyg]

A game wouldn't even be considered a "trap" game unless at least 75% of the money was being bet on it.

this has worked great for me this year and in the past on hockey for some reason.... there is a trap game almost every night, ... i normally consider it if it is 65%> but <95% ... sometimes over 95% doesnt mean trap game... it means the pick was just that obvious and the line was messed up to begin with

 

[straightcashhomie]

Good thread.

 

[tbonestk]

DonDollar

From a thread dated around 11/21/2006. I don't have the actual link to that thread, but I did copy this particular post and saved it in my email.:toast::toast::toast:

======================================

Don Dollars' rules for Sucker Bets
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> Don Dollars has a thread in this forum that outlines sucker bets and how to bet against the team that suckers bet on. He has particular rules on how to detect a sucker team and to bet AGAINST the sucker team.

Here are his instructions from that thread. Don Dollars posted these in Post 284 of that thread.

Don Dollars:

Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".

Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.

Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.

So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.

On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.

These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.

RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:

BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5

In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.

Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.

WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?

You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.

This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:

THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.

This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET

 

[pats3peat]

easy bets are hard winners

 

[pats3peat]

bump

 

[A10Expert]

good read, good topic, thanks!

 

[ESQAJM]

tbone: That's the post. I forgot completely about the Pinnacle part. I'll incorporate that in my capping the trap game this week. Any help you want to give on this will be appreciated.