The ATS records of favored BCS teams in week 1

[GoSooners]

This is how the favored teams fared ATS in week one last season.

Home faves 0-3 points 1-1
Away faves 0-3 points 0-1
Home faves 3.5-7 points 2-4
Away faves 3.5-7 points 3-2
Home faves 7.5 to 14 points 7-4
Away faves 7.5 to 14 points 5-1
Home faves 14.5 to 21 points 0-1-1
Away faves 14.5 to 21 points 1-0
Home faves 21+ points 4-2
Away faves 21+ points 0-0

Last season favored teams were 24-16 ATS in week 1 with the over/under 19/21/1. BCS vs non-BCS schools 10-9-1 ATS. The BCS schools were favored in all games except Vandy vs Miami (Ohio) in which Vandy won straight up. In opening games that were conference games the faves went 4-1 ATS and SU. Oregon St. being the only loser vs Stanford.


For those interested in what happened in that strange 2007 season the favorites went 31-16 ATS in week one with the over/under going 19/27/1. The rules changes, combined with the extra bad weather we had in week one that year, combined with some radical new defensive stategies probably accounted for the diparity in totals. BCS vs non-BCS 13-12 ATS. Only 2 of the BCS schools were dogs. And they both lost (Baylor vs TCU & Arizona vs BYU) Minny lost as 14 point home faves to BG. Conference favorites went 3-2 SU and ATS that year.

Home faves 0-3 points 1-0
Away faves 0-3 points 2-2
Home faves 3.5 to 7 points 6-2
Away faves 3.5 to 7 points 5-2
Home faves 7.5 to 14 points 2-3
Away faves 7.5 to 14 points 2-0
Home faves 14.5 to 21 points 5-0
Away faves 14.5 to 21 points 2-1
Home faves 21+ points 6-6
Away faves 21+ points 0-0


Something else to think about in week one are teams who have had to scale back their practices due to injuries leading up to the first game of the season. Some have to scale way back depending on personnel. It can be very important to keep up with the latest news or share your info with this forum that you got on your local message boards or radio/newspapers concerning these teams. These kinds of teams can sometimes be at a big disadvantage in their first week if their practices aren't as crisp as they should be. And I've seen some supposedly good teams in the past who have looked very disorganized and confused in their first game. I can name several teams from last year alone. It usually involves your average to bad coaches. But every once in a while it can happen with the good coaches.. So it's always nice to catch wind of this ahead of time.

 

[ChuckBooms]

Hey GoSooners, correct me if I am wrong, but I think 2007 actually had the regular rules in place. I thought it was 2006 when the rules were changed to that dumb, "let the clock run after KO's" stuff. Then it changed back in 2007. Then last year they ruined things again with this stupid, "Let the clock run every play like the NFL" bullshit.
Maybe I can't remember this correctly. Anyway, thanks for the stats.

 

[GoSooners]

Hey GoSooners, correct me if I am wrong, but I think 2007 actually had the regular rules in place. I thought it was 2006 when the rules were changed to that dumb, "let the clock run after KO's" stuff. Then it changed back in 2007. Then last year they ruined things again with this stupid, "Let the clock run every play like the NFL" bullshit.
Maybe I can't remember this correctly. Anyway, thanks for the stats.

They seem to tweek these rules every year. So it's hard to keep up with it. But doing a little Googling it said they pretty much eliminated the rules that shortened the game in 2006. And went back to the old rules in 2007.. So your right about the clock. I believe the biggest thing that caused those unders was the change in defensive philosophy for most of the Division 1 schools. Most started following what the NFL was doing and started to introduce much more agressive defenses with more complicated blitz schemes. This all started in 2006 among a few teams, and went full bloom in 2007. In 2008 the offenses started to once again adjust to these new blitz schemes. But these agressive defenses were still pretty hard on most of the young rookie QB's. But the over/unders were pretty evenly dispersed in 2008 compared to 2007.

 

[SoonerBS]

They seem to tweek these rules every year. So it's hard to keep up with it. But doing a little Googling it said they pretty much eliminated the rules that shortened the game in 2006. And went back to the old rules in 2007.. So your right about the clock. I believe the biggest thing that caused those unders was the change in defensive philosophy for most of the Division 1 schools. Most started following what the NFL was doing and started to introduce much more agressive defenses with more complicated blitz schemes. This all started in 2006 among a few teams, and went full bloom in 2007. In 2008 the offenses started to once again adjust to these new blitz schemes. But these agressive defenses were still pretty hard on most of the young rookie QB's. But the over/unders were pretty evenly dispersed in 2008 compared to 2007.

Aggressive defenses are almost always going to be tough on rookie QBs. One of the best QBs playing the game in NCAA vs. aggressive defenses is Colt McCoy of Texas.

O/Us were tough last season. I usually do well with O/Us, but I found last season a bit more difficult than usual.

 

[GoSooners]

Aggressive defenses are almost always going to be tough on rookie QBs. One of the best QBs playing the game in NCAA vs. aggressive defenses is Colt McCoy of Texas.

I agree with you about McCoy. He's pretty much seen it all as a QB. I'll be looking hard at teams with the combo of a good offensive line and QB's with at least one full season as a starter under their belts. The good experienced lines (like Texas has) can better read and pick up those complicated blitz schemes better than a young O-Line with no playing time together vs an experienced defensive front. If you have the young line with a rookie QB vs an experienced defensive front, you could possibly have the makings of an under play. We've discussed this before in the Handicapping 101 thread. But I think it is important to have these mismatches if you want to have a better than 50/50 chance to hit the total. Same goes the other way around too. A young defensive front who is still learning the blitz schemes vs an experienced O-Line and QB could lead to some overs depending on the circumstances. Especially if the other team has this same advantage too on offense.. This formula at least gives you a place to start with these totals.

 

[GoSooners]

Something that I did notice from the list above is the short spread faves playing on the road had a harder time covering overall than the teams who were the bigger faves on the road. So even though it may not make much sense, the odds tell me it may actually be a safer play to bet a big away favorite. Maybe because if they are say 14 to 21 point favorites or more, they are much the better team. But the oddsmakers are afraid to set the line at too ridiculous of a number in the first game.. Whereas a team who is a single digit fave is much more on even terms with their opponent for a first game out. And playing on the road in opening games can sometimes be pretty hairy. Especially if a team's offense isn't that experienced. And if your playing in a tough house things can snowball in a hurry. I think a good example of a team with a single digit line travelling on the road for their first game and losing was Va Tech at East Carolina last season. VT was very inexperienced on offense & QB. And once they got behind, things kind of snowballed on them. My bet is the same VT team who lost 27-22 as 9 point faves in that first game would have easily defeated ECU at the end of the season. And you can probably say the same thing about Oregon State going to Stanford in their first game as 3 point faves. There's one of those short lines I was talking about. OSU had a young defense last year going against a pretty good Stanford O-Line... And when things started to go south they couldn't recover in time to beat Stanford and cover the spread. Later in the season they probably would have had no problem beating Stanford. It's those first game jitters with a young team that can be tricky. So one thing that I will be looking for is the young teams who are short line favorites hitting the road for their first games. We usually get at least a couple good betting opportunities a year against these kinds of teams. Hopefully we'll have some in 2009.

 

[UoweDucks]

A good reason to be paying attention in the offseason. We had been discussing that first game OSU/STAN all summer long. It was pegged early on.

 

[jbragg10]

good stuff.

 

[Conan]

A good reason to be paying attention in the offseason. We had been discussing that first game OSU/STAN all summer long. It was pegged early on.

I think that day my peg should have been round instead of square. It was a disgusting comedy of errors that turned my guts. The Beavs out played and outstatted Stanford the entire game but too much wierd shit happened such as when Lyle threw your everyday backwards lateral for a safety late in the 3rd Q which set Stanford up to go ahead by 9 instead of 2 on the first play of the 4th. Later Lyle threw a not quite TD pass to Catchings that he over stretched at the end of the play fumbling over the goal line and out the side of the end zone for a touchback instead of 1st and goal at the Stanford 2. Bah!

The Beavs outgained the trees 500 yds to 300 yds but Gerhardt and Kimble owned the ground and pound so it's not like Stanford did nothing to earn the win. To the credit of those that played them, Stanford showed everyone that they could run the ball and they kept it going all year. Cheap enough lesson for me. But my significant losses like that one tend to fester in my mind. The Beavers also came within 2 sloppy minutes of taking out Utah @ Utah pretty much the same way they blew it @ Stanford. Close but no cigar. (Though they did cover that one.)

I think the only other humbug that stuck out for me last year was that fucking gratuitous TD the trees scored (on Harbaugh's behalf) at the very END of their game at SJSt. They were already up and had it won with about 10 seconds remaining in the game. Instead of Pritchard taking a knee with everyone walking off the field shaking hands, Harbaugh calls a running play and Gerhardt scores with about 5 seconds left in the game... just to fuck with me. I'm sure of it.

At least I predicted correctly that Tomey's Spartans would be stingy and Stanford's defense wouldn't have much to worry about either in a low scoring game.

All of the above was fairly well understood going into last season and a few things are still the same and some things are different. Study study. You can't win them all but you can sure win enough to make it very much worth your time and effort.

What I want to know is should we call this a "study group" or is this just another fancy way of saying detention?

 

[Conan]

One last twist to consider. Oregon St. has been a notoriously slow starting team for the last several years or longer. Pretty much a solid fade in the first week or 2 or 3. But, this year they open vs the Portland St. Vikings. Jerry Glanville has not left the building but he is still pretty irrelevant. That one could turn out pretty messy.

Then it's off to UNLV to take things a little more seriously than opening the year playing a Div 1-AA school. UNLV is in the same boat, opening in W1 vs Sacramento State. Perhaps the Beavers will be the exception to what UNLVs D will be practicing against all during fall camp. The MWC is one spread happy conference and the Beavers play a pro-set. From what little I can gather up to now. UNLV's biggest weakness on D is their pass rush. Not adviseable to slack off there with a couple of hot shot senior QBs playing for the Beavers in addition to some new and improved WRs. Catchings, Rogers and Kjos have played every bit as good as a unit as last season's future Sunday receivers, but this year there is more depth. Canfield looks like he can throw a good bomb too. That's been pretty scarce to find around the Beaver's offense for about 5 years, ever since Derek Anderson wore his size 17 shoes at Reser.

Aside from a promising aerial game, I just don't see UNLV with an answer for Quizz. They will be scrambling their LB's all afternoon chasing after Oregon St's speed to the outside and James Rogers fly sweeps that could break their defense's spirit... when the are not too concerned about Quizz hiding behind a big OL before pounding the middle for 6-8 yards a whack.

In W3 they return home for a revenge game vs. Brian Kelly's Cincinnatti Bearcats. Some people like myself believe that Oregon St.s offense will carry the team early on and as luck would have it, Cincy returns just ONE starting defensemen from last year. If Oregon St. ends up a little weak at the CB posiiton,which is what I think will happen, this game could turn out kind of wild too.

An interesting side note that almost became an interesting side note is that Cincy picked up a USC refugee, WR Vidal Hazelton a few months ago but he won't be eligible to play for them until 2010.

And then in W4, the very well endowed (as some say) Arizona Wildcats come to Reser in all likelihood licking their wounds from an all out assault on their QB and the rest of their offense by the Iowa Hawkeye's D a weel before. And just FYI, Iowa brings plenty of momentum into this season from a strong finish in '08 winning 6 of their last 7 games including an Outback bowl victory over USF and a win over Penn St. during their closing run.

I think the Beavers will be safe once again at home vs the Cats who haven't won a game vs Oregon St. for like 10 years? Focus focus. W4 is both school's conference opener. It should prove to be a bit bloody at Reser. But the Beavers have the kind of personnel that can make a mobile QB pay for it. Speed and more speed, right where a mobil QB doesn't want to know about it. (LB and DE)

I like who steps in for Slade Norris and Victor Butler, Oregon St's pair of marquee DE's, both NFL draftees that reaked havoc on QB's all year. Their replacements are a couple of very talented guys named Ben Terry and Kevin Frahm who have both played like animals during spring practice, even dominant and they have better speed than Norris and Butler.

THE main area of the concern is at cornerback. Back when NFL draftees Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis started at CB for the Beavers they got burnt and burnt often. It took time for them to earn WR's respect as lockdown corners. Tim Clark and Pat Henderson bring experience but they are 1/2 blur slower than the new guys, James Dockery and Brandon Hardin -- Oregon State's corners of tomorrow that must step up today.

It's deja vu all over again for a while as Dockery and Hardin learn their position. Banker's defenses lean heavily on their CB's. They should be OK after a couple months of chalk talks and game reps, but in the meantime, DE's Frahm and Terry would be doing everyone a big favor if they can be extra disruptive getting to opposing QB's and messing up their rhythm as much as possible. That allows Dockery and Hardin get a few extra split seconds in coverage until they get the knack of locking down their man in the one on one.
Nothing to it. (Yeah right) This is one good place to see how well the positions coaches are earning their paychecks.

All in all, I give Oregon State a fine chance of starting out fast for a change. They SHOULD (keyword) be 4-0 before they go to ASU in what looks like a possible baseball score like the Sun Bowl. But I think their key to having a successful season and a better overall record than last year won't be known until after their new DB's have aged a bit which is a good thing.

They have a reasonable chance of starting out 6-0 with a road win @ASU in W5 and then holding service in a revenge game vs Stanford the following week at Reser. But I like their chances in W5 because Sullivan's offense seems like it will be sputtering for a good while and the Sun Devils will have nothing that is as much of a threat as Oregon St's rushing game. Not so much that I think Quizz will put up 140 yards that day though he may. But his presence should open things up for Canfield and a whole mess of other ways Oregon State can move the ball.

Beyond W6, I think the Beavers wll be fortunate to win 3 more games. 4 more wins after W6 may be doable but not likely unless there are some broken bones and ripped up limbs involved. So just in case they go undefeated up to W6, don't go looking for fancy props and futures because I don't think it's going to happen.

 

[GoSooners]

Something else that I found a little interesting that I thought I would share. Basically, every season that I can recall the favorites cover more games than the dogs in the first week of the season. But the second week is another story. This is how it's gone for the favorites in the last 3 years in the second week of the season:

2008: 21-24
2007:19-18
2006:18-20-1

As you can see things even out quite a bit in the second week and even lean towards the dogs in most years. I would say in the first 4 weeks of the season over the course of time things probably even out to more 50/50 for either side. But if the faves covered with say a 30-16 record one week, you can almost bet that the next week the final spreads are going to lean closer towards the dogs. Rarely if ever will you get two 30-16 weeks in a row for one side. Thanks to the media and other factors Las Vegas tends to overadjust or underadjust the next week if one side is too dominant and it sways the lines the other way.. That's how the law of averages works. But really, considering what historically happens in the second week, I'm never very comfortable playing the favorites in that week. I tend to pick and choose very carefully. Especially in the kinds of games that aren't media hyped. Those dogs can be sneaky when you least expect them to. Here's an example of a few games where BCS teams lost ATS vs non-BCS that happened in the second week last season. Some were much closer games than expected. Or the faves lost outright.

Alabama (-29) over Tulane 20-6
Arkansas (-14) over ULM 28-27
Auburn (-18) over Southern Miss 27-13
Colorado (-21) over Eastern Washington 31-24
UCONN (-6) over Temple 12-9
Ohio State (-33) over Ohio 26-14
Nebraska (-27) over San Jose 35-12
Maryland (-13) over Middle Tennessee 14-24
Michigan (-14) over Miami, Ohio 16-6
Miss St. (-30) over SE LA 34-10
NCST (-15) over William & Mary 34-24
Pitt (-13) over Buffalo 27-16
Syracuse (-4) over Akron 28-42
Virginia (-25) over Furman 24-7
West Va (-6) over East Carolina 3-24

 

[SoonerBS]

Last year in Week #1 I bet on 13 favorites and lost two of those. The only "dog" I bet on was Vanderbilt and took them on the ML at +150 and won SU.

In Week 2 I bet on 10 favorites and won 6 of those.

I play the favorites a lot heavier during weeks 1-3 . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

Last year in Week #1 I bet on 13 favorites and lost two of those. The only "dog" I bet on was Vanderbilt and took them on the ML at +150 and won SU.

In Week 2 I bet on 10 favorites and won 6 of those.

I play the favorites a lot heavier during weeks 1-3 . . . . .

Week two can be tricky..When you look at the odds against you on favorites it does make you pause a little bit. I mean in 2008, out of the games we had to choose from concerning BCS conference teams, if we had known what we know now, it would have been hard to pick a favorite with absolute confidence knowing that out of those 45 games 24 were going to be won by the dogs. It doesn't keep me from betting certain faves. But it does make me more cautious. I haven't ever checked the ATS records for week three. But by that time I would think that things will have started evening out a little more.. But history still says that the first two weeks of the season have a definite spread angle with the faves and dogs.. Much more than the rest of the season over the long term.

 

[SoonerBS]

One last twist to consider. Oregon St. has been a notoriously slow starting team for the last several years or longer. Pretty much a solid fade in the first week or 2 or 3. But, this year they open vs the Portland St. Vikings. Jerry Glanville has not left the building but he is still pretty irrelevant. That one could turn out pretty messy.

Then it's off to UNLV to take things a little more seriously than opening the year playing a Div 1-AA school. UNLV is in the same boat, opening in W1 vs Sacramento State. Perhaps the Beavers will be the exception to what UNLVs D will be practicing against all during fall camp. The MWC is one spread happy conference and the Beavers play a pro-set. From what little I can gather up to now. UNLV's biggest weakness on D is their pass rush. Not adviseable to slack off there with a couple of hot shot senior QBs playing for the Beavers in addition to some new and improved WRs. Catchings, Rogers and Kjos have played every bit as good as a unit as last season's future Sunday receivers, but this year there is more depth. Canfield looks like he can throw a good bomb too. That's been pretty scarce to find around the Beaver's offense for about 5 years, ever since Derek Anderson wore his size 17 shoes at Reser.

Aside from a promising aerial game, I just don't see UNLV with an answer for Quizz. They will be scrambling their LB's all afternoon chasing after Oregon St's speed to the outside and James Rogers fly sweeps that could break their defense's spirit... when the are not too concerned about Quizz hiding behind a big OL before pounding the middle for 6-8 yards a whack.

In W3 they return home for a revenge game vs. Brian Kelly's Cincinnatti Bearcats. Some people like myself believe that Oregon St.s offense will carry the team early on and as luck would have it, Cincy returns just ONE starting defensemen from last year. If Oregon St. ends up a little weak at the CB posiiton,which is what I think will happen, this game could turn out kind of wild too.

An interesting side note that almost became an interesting side note is that Cincy picked up a USC refugee, WR Vidal Hazelton a few months ago but he won't be eligible to play for them until 2010.

And then in W4, the very well endowed (as some say) Arizona Wildcats come to Reser in all likelihood licking their wounds from an all out assault on their QB and the rest of their offense by the Iowa Hawkeye's D a weel before. And just FYI, Iowa brings plenty of momentum into this season from a strong finish in '08 winning 6 of their last 7 games including an Outback bowl victory over USF and a win over Penn St. during their closing run.

I think the Beavers will be safe once again at home vs the Cats who haven't won a game vs Oregon St. for like 10 years? Focus focus. W4 is both school's conference opener. It should prove to be a bit bloody at Reser. But the Beavers have the kind of personnel that can make a mobile QB pay for it. Speed and more speed, right where a mobil QB doesn't want to know about it. (LB and DE)

I like who steps in for Slade Norris and Victor Butler, Oregon St's pair of marquee DE's, both NFL draftees that reaked havoc on QB's all year. Their replacements are a couple of very talented guys named Ben Terry and Kevin Frahm who have both played like animals during spring practice, even dominant and they have better speed than Norris and Butler.

THE main area of the concern is at cornerback. Back when NFL draftees Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis started at CB for the Beavers they got burnt and burnt often. It took time for them to earn WR's respect as lockdown corners. Tim Clark and Pat Henderson bring experience but they are 1/2 blur slower than the new guys, James Dockery and Brandon Hardin -- Oregon State's corners of tomorrow that must step up today.

It's deja vu all over again for a while as Dockery and Hardin learn their position. Banker's defenses lean heavily on their CB's. They should be OK after a couple months of chalk talks and game reps, but in the meantime, DE's Frahm and Terry would be doing everyone a big favor if they can be extra disruptive getting to opposing QB's and messing up their rhythm as much as possible. That allows Dockery and Hardin get a few extra split seconds in coverage until they get the knack of locking down their man in the one on one.
Nothing to it. (Yeah right) This is one good place to see how well the positions coaches are earning their paychecks.

All in all, I give Oregon State a fine chance of starting out fast for a change. They SHOULD (keyword) be 4-0 before they go to ASU in what looks like a possible baseball score like the Sun Bowl. But I think their key to having a successful season and a better overall record than last year won't be known until after their new DB's have aged a bit which is a good thing.

They have a reasonable chance of starting out 6-0 with a road win @ASU in W5 and then holding service in a revenge game vs Stanford the following week at Reser. But I like their chances in W5 because Sullivan's offense seems like it will be sputtering for a good while and the Sun Devils will have nothing that is as much of a threat as Oregon St's rushing game. Not so much that I think Quizz will put up 140 yards that day though he may. But his presence should open things up for Canfield and a whole mess of other ways Oregon State can move the ball.

Beyond W6, I think the Beavers wll be fortunate to win 3 more games. 4 more wins after W6 may be doable but not likely unless there are some broken bones and ripped up limbs involved. So just in case they go undefeated up to W6, don't go looking for fancy props and futures because I don't think it's going to happen.

Careful with UNLV. You are correct with everything you said, but there are a couple of things that need to be considered.

1.) UNLV considered last season a success going 5-7 for the season knowing they were playing in a tough conference. This season, they are projected to be a lot better and their sights are set on a goal of going bowling. This is not a team with no hope because of a dismal season last year, this is a team that is satisfied with last season and believes they can do a lot better this year.

2.) They are coming off what the coach is calling "UNLV's best Spring since he has been coaching." Again, attitudes are really good and hopes are high.

3.) Sanford feels like everything is set on offense and feels good about the outlook there. Everything is centered around a solid offensive line -- you know how much I value that fact.

4.) While it is true they are looking for some solid defensive ends, they still bring back 8 starters off last year's defense which should be better just from experience.

5.) They have been practicing all Spring on defending the "spread offense" since several of the teams in the Mountain West have gone to it. This, Sanford says, has made the secondary better and more competitive.

6.) UNLV's offense is going to be a true early test for Oregon State's defense who only brings back 3 starters from last season.

If Oregon State's defense comes around quickly, then they may prove to be way too much for UNLV. But, if they are still a bit green, UNLV will give them a fight at home where they played well last year.

 

[russ1945]

Gs

Do you have any data on road favorites on week two? That might be worth taking a look at.

 

[GoSooners]

Do you have any data on road favorites on week two? That might be worth taking a look at.

Russ...When I get a chance I'll look it up. I would be interested in that myself.

 

[Conan]

Careful with UNLV. You are correct with everything you said, but there are a couple of things that need to be considered.

1.) UNLV considered last season a success going 5-7 for the season knowing they were playing in a tough conference. This season, they are projected to be a lot better and their sights are set on a goal of going bowling. This is not a team with no hope because of a dismal season last year, this is a team that is satisfied with last season and believes they can do a lot better this year.

2.) They are coming off what the coach is calling "UNLV's best Spring since he has been coaching." Again, attitudes are really good and hopes are high.

3.) Sanford feels like everything is set on offense and feels good about the outlook there. Everything is centered around a solid offensive line -- you know how much I value that fact.

4.) While it is true they are looking for some solid defensive ends, they still bring back 8 starters off last year's defense which should be better just from experience.

5.) They have been practicing all Spring on defending the "spread offense" since several of the teams in the Mountain West have gone to it. This, Sanford says, has made the secondary better and more competitive.

6.) UNLV's offense is going to be a true early test for Oregon State's defense who only brings back 3 starters from last season.

If Oregon State's defense comes around quickly, then they may prove to be way too much for UNLV. But, if they are still a bit green, UNLV will give them a fight at home where they played well last year.

Truedat if Oregon St's defense comes together quickly. However I don't know if that is safe to assume in W2. But compared to their typical OOC opponent in recent years (PSU, Boise, Utah, Cincinatti, LSU) it's as if they have been swingng a lead bat while waiting on deck to play UNLV. And it's not in their nature to let up. One thing I can absolutely promise that you will see from their defense is a tenacious pass rush. I should also point out that Oregon St. is nicknamed Linebacker U, for obvious reasons and this group is better than last year. A 2-shot reload is nothing for them. I say that because I've see it early and often. I don't think UNLV can beat them on the ground, and I don't think how well the Rebels OL has been practicing will matter a whole lot.

What I do see clearly is a more mature Beaver offense with very potent weapons all over the field and experienced skill position players stepping up in a big way this past spring to fill the shoes of two highly regarded receivers.

And true, I did point out that Oregon St. uses an offense that UNLV does not practice against, but that was a minor point. The pro-set is a basic textbook NFL offense used many places for eons. It's no stranger to most HC's and in spite of the spread, the T, the shotgun, the pistol, the M-16, whatever, the pro-set is widely seen. HC's who are serious about preparing their players to play on Sunday. Riley has been using that offense for years. It seems to work for them.

Yeah I realize that their last game was a complete bust for their offense and it turned into a boring baseball score. But they won't be missing 3/4 of their skill postion players here like they did in the Sun Bowl. Since that game, the few key offensive players that they needed to replace are WAY covered and then plenty more on top of that.

WR Daryll Catchings has stepped up to fill Sammie Stroughters shoes in practice, perhaps having the best spring of everyone. He's their deep threat with Damola Adeniji backing him up. Adeniji filled in in some spots in '08 and he'll be busier than that this season, Both of them have "hands" for the job and can get deep on patterns in a lick. I think you'll see plenty of deep throws because both Catchings and Adeniji are fast enough to get behind whoever is playing center field. Now with Canfield the probable starter, he's the one with the cannon that can put it out there. This past spring, both Catchings and Adeniji were shagging everthing thrown their way. It was impressive to see as many home runs as they completed... a pleasant change to see with Canfield's arm. It's been a while.

James Rogers is all conference in the slot and he's now a Junior playing with his Soph. brother Quizz, a tandem pair in OSU's backfield. I'm sure you've seen James Rogers run his fly sweep time and time again around the weak side picking up 10 yards over and over with their oponents defenders hopelessly out of position and barely able to contain him even after 1/2 dozen plays that were sprinkled throughout a drive.

They've also got a pretty good TE in Howard Croom, another clutch posession receiver with TE dimensions that grant him the middle of the field against peewee DB's and even LB's. He's also got some pretty decent relief in Brady camp. Between the two of them, there is over 500 lbs of bodies that can be an obstacle to smaller DB's and LB's who can't jump quite high enough to do much about.

Casey Kjos and highly touted Jordan Bishop are stepping in for Shane Morales as the posession receivers and red zone "specialists."

Probably the fastest of all their WR's is James "fly sweep" Rogers. But Quizz, who is perhaps not as fast but much more elusive and harder to bring down because he cuts on a dime and he's got powerful legs that squat 360+ lbs and he's just 5'6" in stilts.

But maybe the main ingredient in the Beaver's offense that dictates game flow is their experience and depth on the OL, two of whom are all pac-10 worthy. I honestly don't think UNLV has the speed or a DL with enough talent or experience to handle a top notch Beaver OL anchored in the middle by all Pac-10 candidate C Alex Linnenkohl and Sr. LG Gregg Peat. (the only senior) They are pretty much the same guys that opened holes for their all-American freshman RB Quizz Rogers to the tune of 1300+ yards on the ground last year.

They are better than '08. Toss in 4* recruit, RG Michael Philipp who is expected to start if not heavily worked into the rotation and their OL is starting to resemble a star studded cast, in a conference with OL's the likes of USC and Cal. The Beaver OL stands shoulder to shoulder with the best of them.

I got myself all wrapped up in writng up their offense because they just get no respect. After Quizz, who are they anyway? In a nutshell, the Beaver's offense is an experinced and very talented group of mostly no-names that are extremely difficult to hold down in one place long enough to get a 3 and out. They averaged a respectable 30ppg and statistically they finished around #30 offensively with a little over 400 ypg average. I see them as a little better than that, perhaps because they are loaded to the gills in offensive weaponry that can strike from anywhere on the field, maybe even deep down the sidelines a few time this year with Sean Canfields arm providing the distance. But like you seem to be SBS, I am damn curious to see what their DC Mark Banker has cooking, and how long will it need to cook?

UNLV was basically the MWC's little bully. Aside from beating ASU. They dominated and destroyed the MWC's weak sisters and got their asses whupped good by everyone else. Scratch ASU from UNLV's list of notable victories. Everyone got a piece of ASU last year. So it stands. The Rebels may find a piece or two of the puzzle but they are a long ways from solving it.

I think if all goes splendidly well for UNLV, it will take more than 30 points to determine a winner. Oregon State can score that many in one half, easily. I can't say the same is true for UNLV. They are outclassed here and UNLV has not beaten an opponent with any class for a long time. Not last year and probably not this year.

Actually, scratch every thing I said if they will allow it, I have not yet seen a first down.

 

[GoSooners]

Do you have any data on road favorites on week two? That might be worth taking a look at.

Russ...Here is the data on how the road favorites have done in week 2.

From the 2006-2008 seasons the BCS conference road faves were 16-14-1

Not much of a trend there. But it does tell me that in many cases the road fave is not at a big disadvantage in that second week. Probably because in most cases this is a BCS team's first road game. And teams tend to be very focused in their first road trip of the season. And they also tend to improve quite a bit from the first to the second week. I found that most of these favored teams that lost ATS on the road were either big double digit favorites of 14 points or more. Or were very small faves of a FG or less. The teams who were anywhere from 7 to 10 point favorites tended to do better.


One other stat that you all might find interesting is the teams who get a late start to the season. I'm talking about starting their first game in every other team's second week.

From 2006-2008 8 teams got late starts. And they went 1-7 ATS with the lone win ATS coming with Florida State against West Carolina. I went back two more years to 2004. And since then in the last 5 years the late starters are 5-14-1 ATS.

I found that in most of the games where the late starter covered they were getting quite a few points in almost every game. And I also found that the teams they played and covered against had for the most part struggled that season. Especially early on..

SoonerBS...I think you mentioned something about TCU getting a late start this year against Virginia. This is definitely a game to keep an eye on. Hopefully we'll get a favorable line with Virginia.