The Annual Jaypaw Slide...

[jaypaw]

13wins-26 losses on the season (an even 33%!)

(7 for 20 ATS (1 push))
(1 for 2 buying points (buying didnt help either bet))
(3 for 10 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [-120])
(2 for 7 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)

Just wanted to update this so noone misses out on a good fade opportunity.

I'm gonna try to pull out of this but the harder I try the worse it gets - so fade away!

[This message was edited by Jaypaw on January 19, 2004 at 02:49 PM.]

 

[jaypaw]

CONNECTICUT 11 Pittsburgh
TEXAS TECH 7 1/2 Oklahoma

Looking at Pittsburgh and Texas Tech.

Any thoughts?


Oklahoma is finished as far as I can see and 11 is big number against this pittsburgh team - they havent really had any major competition but they should be able to hang in this one even though its at "the mall"...

 

[Birdman]

Jaypaw: Stop the slide. Pitt undefeated coming to UCoon means one thing. Huskies will play at high level for entire game(until up by 25+). Loss to UNC Saturday will provide Calhoun ammo to get squad's undivided attention. Pitt has played nobody and needed overtime to beat a young, weak Miami team on the road. Huskies win big.

I think 7.5 is too much for Tech to lay Sooners. Okla has been in a rough patch lately but against better teams than Tech. Sampson, Sooners HC, knows the import of this game and I expect baskets to be hard to come by for both teams. Lubbock squad relies too much on Emmitt and if his game is below normal to any degree, this will be a hard game for Tech to win. Okla has talent that is young. There will be a game(and soon) that the frosh backcourt steps it up for Sooners. Is tonight the night?

I'll give you a four team teaser and Huskies are definetly one of the legs.

 

[Birdman]

Jaypaw:

4 team teaser

UConn
Prov
Utah
UNCW

 

[jaypaw]

I see yer home today birdman...

Thanks for the help.

I'm taking any advice I can get.


I dont know much about Utah or UNCW but the providence one scares me. I know they "only" have to win by 11, but I usually try to avoid such high spreads in the 4 teamers.

Do you know anything about loyola-chi that would lead you to guarentee a blowout by prov? I stay away from those because once a team establishes themselves with a 10 to 20 pt lead - and have proven that there is no way they will lose the game, sometimes they back off...

Lemme know what you think.

I'm all ears tonight because I gotta dig myself outta this hole and apparently I am incapable of doing it on my own...

 

[jaypaw]

Copied my comments from JW's thread:

I'm looking at Pitt and Texas Tech - but Birdman advises me otherwise on both. Any thoughts about those two games?

My reasoning was that Oklahoma seems to be finished by all accounts now that they are showing what they are made of against a better tier of competition (last 4 games 1-3, at margins -3Princeton, +27CT, +21OKState, and +4Missouri). Admittedly Tech is a step down from some of those teams but I wouldn't put them at the bottom by any means. Tech BEAT OKState by 21, Minnesota by 17, Utah by 11, and so on.

The -7.5 is a lot of points so I'm considering spending a few bucks to buy it down to 4.5 just in case. Clearly using OkState as a guide this should be no contest - but I know that in reality shit happens so thats why I'd play it safe (if I play this one at all).

I like Pitt because I think that if you take out meaningless games from Uconn's schedule they arent really doing as great as the media has them cracked up to be. Losing to oGeorgia Tech and North Carolina is a place to start - but Only beating rutgers by 1? Squeaking by Yale by only 10? Beating Rice by 9? and Nevada by 14? And you're asking them to beat Pittsburgh by 10, undefeated - having faced Miami, ND, Florida State, Bama, Rutgers, Georgia, Penn State, and Virginia Tech (winning these games by an average of just under 12 pts)?

Am I getting suckered into these two? Or am I using good judgement?

HELP

 

[jaypaw]

Going with the gut... again.

Texas Tech -4.5 (bought 3 to -170)
Pitt +11.5


Also this 4 teamer:
Pittsburgh +21½, Mon@7:00p
North Carolina Wilmington +1, Mon@7:00p
Providence -11½, Mon@8:00p
Texas Tech +2½, Mon@9:00p


Thanks for the input dudes. See you tomorrow in "The Slide Continues".

 

[Birdman]

Sorry Jaypaw about UNCW. Bad beat in teaser as they shot 6-14 from line when they avg 70% from stripe. Towson shot 65% from stripe which is above their avg. I mention FT% because that is one statistic your opponent can not affect--similar to playing an opponent in golf head to head.

Good call on Pitt-Panthers got a solid team and their pt guard from NYC is pretty darn good and will get better (more consistent) with experience.

 

[jaypaw]

Holy cow birdman

I'm not worried about the loss on the 4 teamer - a least I picked up 2 ATS... Even though I wasted the bought points on TTU.

I gotta keep sticking to my guns and maybe I'll continue to post 2-1 days till I break even. Maybe.

 

[jaypaw]

15wins-27 losses on the season (35.7%!)

(8 for 21 ATS (1 push))
(2 for 3 buying points (buying didnt help yet))
(3 for 11 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [-120])
(2 for 7 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)