The 7 states that will decide the election

[D2bets]

I got it at Obama 238, McCain 227 with these states in the balance:

Ohio (20)
Michigan (17)
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)

I think some of the other tossups aren't so much. Florida, NC, Ind, Mizz are going McCain. Minn, Iowa, Penn, Wisc are going Obama. If any of these flip then it's in a blowout anyway.

Leans on Obama to win Michigan and New Mexico = 22
Leans on McCain winning Virginia and New Hampshire = 17

McCain really needs Michigan (and Ohio). If he doesn't then Obama is at 255 needing 14 out of the 56 left on the board.

If McCain wins Michigan and Ohio (and Va) then Obama is in trouble.

 

[D2bets]

And by the way the 269-269 scenario is pretty easy to see. Mich gets Obama to 255. Lots of ways to 14:
a. Colorado (9) + New Mexico (5)
b. Colorado (9) + Nevada (5)
c. Nevada (5) + New Mexico (5) + New Hampshire (4)

Scenario a is quite possible.

 

[TheRightSide]

D2 McCain has a shot in Mchigan. The socialist gov and a Detroit Mayor that is a thug will not help Obama. Maybe the UAW will wake up and figure that the dems have fucked them over with the energy policies. But UAW people are pretty dumb so you never know.

 

[D2bets]

D2 McCain has a shot in Mchigan. The socialist gov and a Detroit Mayor that is a thug will not help Obama. Maybe the UAW will wake up and figure that the dems have fucked them over with the energy policies. But UAW people are pretty dumb so you never know.

Yeah I agree. That's why I have it among the 7 to watch. That is McCain's best chance at a real steal. If he does it and holds onto Ohio then he probably wins. Big big ifs.

 

[TheRightSide]

Well he won't name Romney the VP but he will be in this state alot. People have seen what a socialist will do to this country.

 

[Seymour]

Ohio seems like the most important state this year - just the facts around here - Ohio polls

<TABLE class=data><TBODY><TR><TD class=noCenter>Quinnipiac</TD><TD>08/17 - 08/24</TD><TD>1234 LV</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>44</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +1</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>Columbus Dispatch</TD><TD>08/12 - 08/21</TD><TD>2102 RV</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>41</TD><TD class=spread>McCain +1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>Rasmussen</TD><TD>08/18 - 08/18</TD><TD>700 LV</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>43</TD><TD class=spread>McCain +5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Seymour]

McCain could get Ohio but I doubt Michigan

 

[JoeContrarian]

Although the polls look very tight, the pool of undecideds is deeper than it appears, imo.

I don't think there are 48% solidly behind McCain and 47% backing Obama. I think there's a very large pool of 'leaners' on both sides who could turn this election into a blowout. With no incumbent, lot's of folks will make up their minds during the debates. Hence the current Democrat pitch of "McSame."

Fundamentally, I don't think Obama is a stronger candidate than John Kerry -- certainly John Kerry had far more headwind at this point -- while at the same time John McCain has a deeper pool of voters to tap into than George W. Bush did in '04.

What did Pat Patriot predict? 40 state victory for McCain? Hmmmm...

All I can say is I'm really looking forward to the debates.

 

[C-Gold]

Obama did horrible against the blue collar Ohio voters, west virginia, kentucky etc. That will really hurt him in those areas.

I think Osama still takes Michigan, and Mccain keeps va.

Ohio is the big battle.

 

[C-Gold]

I also think Hillary would have already been picking furnature for the white house if she was running. The dems have to make things difficult.

 

[D2bets]

Obama did horrible against the blue collar Ohio voters, west virginia, kentucky etc. That will really hurt him in those areas.

I think Osama still takes Michigan, and Mccain keeps va.

Ohio is the big battle.

Give Michigan to Obama and Ohio/Va to McCain and we're at 260 McCain, Obama 255 with Colorado, New Mex, Nevada, NH pending. Tie anyone?

 

[roadreeler57]

Obama wont take Ohio...The McCain Anti Obama ads are running strong here & they cut out to a commercial & cut off the whole Convention when Obama speaks.... http://baldwin08.com

 

[gtc08]

Give Michigan to Obama and Ohio/Va to McCain and we're at 260 McCain, Obama 255 with Colorado, New Mex, Nevada, NH pending. Tie anyone?

i like obama to win colorado new mexico. nevada i dont know, nh i think obama.

 

[D2bets]

i like obama to win colorado new mexico. nevada i dont know, nh i think obama.

If Obama wins MI, CO, NM, NH then he has 273 and doesn't even need Ohio. If he wins those w/o NH it's 269.

Basically, McCain MUST have Ohio. Obama would win it easily with it, but has other routes to victory. McCain has to hit a 5-team parlay to win.

 

[gtc08]

i dont even have michigan as a battleground state. the states composition, make up, and values are democratic not republican. michigan has gone blue the last 4 elections.

 

[D2bets]

i dont even have michigan as a battleground state. the states composition, make up, and values are democratic not republican. michigan has gone blue the last 4 elections.

Could Romney possibly make a difference?

If you have Mich going Obama, how many EV's do you have as basically locks for Obama? I got 255 and that doesn't even include NM which probably is close to a lock.

 

[gtc08]

id say locks are all the kerry states except new hampshire. id also consider iowa a lock, a state that went red in 2004

 

[cutacrossshorty]

One thing to note about Ohio. Unlike 2004, the Republicans don't control the apparatus that enabled them to deny the votes of about 1/4 million voters (most of which came from heavily Democratic precincts around Columbus and Cleveland). In other words, it should be close to being a fair process in Ohio this time.

 

[Mistermj]

One thing to note about Ohio. Unlike 2004, the Republicans don't control the apparatus that enabled them to deny the votes of about 1/4 million voters (most of which came from heavily Democratic precincts around Columbus and Cleveland). In other words, it should be close to being a fair process in Ohio this time.

Here you go again with baseless allegations and lies...meanwhile ACORN is trying to steal the election in Wisconsin again enabling election workers to make false voter registrations.

 

[barman]

...meanwhile ACORN is trying to steal the election in Wisconsin again enabling election workers to make false voter registrations.

Sure...sure they are.

Luckily you and Your People will expose them and put a stop to any such shennanigans, thereby preserving the integrity of the Cheese Vote for 08