The 10 worst contracts in MLB
Rangers' deal with Fielder among biggest mistakes in recent years
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
Money makes the world go 'round. A literalist might say it's actually a combination of angular momentum and gravitational forces, but in any trade in baseball, the discussion involves dollars, not Johannes Kepler. Trades in baseball are rarely just a player-for-player matter because significant consideration is given to the contracts that will also be swapped. Teams are usually reluctant to trade their young stars for very good reasons, so the principles in most deadline trades involve veteran players either on the verge of a new contract or with a substantial existing one.
Not every contract will work out for a team, of course. Even a contract that seemed like a good idea at the time has a risk of backfiring for the signing team. Using the ZiPS projection system, we ranked the least desirable contract burdens in baseball by the difference between the player's projected value (based on his expected current dollar value on the free-agent market) and what he actually is scheduled to be paid.
1. Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (minus-$122 million)The Tigers may have made some ill-advised moves this past offseason (coughDoug Fister trade cough), but one good move they did make was unloading Fielder's contract to the Rangers with cash to pick up Ian Kinsler and his smaller remaining contract. Fielder's contract looked like a significant issue going into the season; he was approaching 30 years old and was coming off a down 2013 season. After he required season-ending surgery on a herniated disk in his neck, it's looking worse.
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2. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (minus-$120 million)Albert Pujols is back! At least, that's what a lot of headlines declared at the end of April after his OPS hit 1.000. Now? Not so much. Pujols is having a solid season both offensively and defensively, but he still isn't even at the level of his debut season for the Angels in 2012. Essentially, he's an above-average first baseman at age 34 ... with $180 million remaining on his contract.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (minus-$83 million)Although Cabrera has been unarguably one of the most feared sluggers in baseball in recent years, the Tigers took a gigantic risk in signing him to an extension two years before he would have hit free agency. Cabrera's gigantic extension, the richest in baseball history for a player not named Alex Rodriguez, starts at his age-33 season. Superstars on Cabrera's level of superstardomaren't immune to aging. Mike Ilitch, the Tigers' 85-year-old team owner, has actuarial-related reasons not to be concerned about the middle or end of Cabrera's new deal, but that might not be a consolation for Detroit's general manager five years from now.
4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (minus-$68 million)The Howard contract has fallen to fourth, but only because it's almost halfway paid; it's still a disaster of a contract. A terrible deal at the time of the signing, it ended up being even worse than expected and now looks to be a total loss for the organization.
5. Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers (minus-$66 million)Choo was the ZiPS projection system's least favorite contract last winter, and while his recent injuries have no doubt contributed to his OPS hovering just above .700, players on the wrong side of 30 tend to have an increased risk of injury, which must be taken into consideration. Although ZiPS thinks Choo will still have seasons in which he contributes, the Rangers spent too much for a player with old-player skills.
6. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (minus-$65 million)The idea was that at first base, Mauer would make up for his lack of power with his high BA/OBP skills and stay healthier than he did behind the plate. So far, neither has happened. Given that Mauer is hitting .271 with only three homers, the odds that he hits like John Olerud for the rest of his big contract are looking long.
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (minus-$63 million)We talked a lot about Kemp last week, so there's no need to rehash the tale of Kemp's decline from superstar center fielder to Josh Willingham. Kemp can still contribute to a major league team, but if the Dodgers are expecting anything in return, they will have to eat a serious chunk of his remaining deal.
8. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees (minus-$59 million)Unlike his first big contract with the Rangers, A-Rod's second deal really will go down as one of the worst in MLB history. The good news is that he signed in 2007, so the debacle has only three more years left. He has declined for years offensively and defensively, and coming off his suspension, he'd go into his age-39 season next year having missed an entire season. ZiPS projects only 1.4 WAR remaining for A-Rod. With a $6 million bonus for hitting home run No. 660 -- he's currently at 654 -- it's unlikely to make much of a difference if the Yankees try to play A-Rod in 2015 or just eat the rest of the deal.
9. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (minus-$59 million)Sabathia is the first (and only) pitcher in the top 10 bad-contract rankings. One could argue that teams are getting better at evaluating injury risk for pitchers, keeping relatively few recent hurler contracts from becoming gigantic boondoggles. Sabathia has lost a considerable amount of weight for health reasons, but he certainly seemed more durable as an overweight pitcher. With a rich history of durable pitchers with girth in baseball, perhaps the Yankees should encourage him to eat a few more cheeseburgers while recovering from knee surgery.
10. Carl Crawford, Los Angeles Dodgers (minus-$57 million)There might be a team willing to pay $60 million or so for an injury-prone fourth outfielder. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Dodgers, that team is most likely the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although there's at least a chance that another team is highly optimistic on Matt Kemp's remaining upside and gives him an aggressive valuation, it's very unlikely that anyone would do the same for Crawford.
Rangers' deal with Fielder among biggest mistakes in recent years
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider
Money makes the world go 'round. A literalist might say it's actually a combination of angular momentum and gravitational forces, but in any trade in baseball, the discussion involves dollars, not Johannes Kepler. Trades in baseball are rarely just a player-for-player matter because significant consideration is given to the contracts that will also be swapped. Teams are usually reluctant to trade their young stars for very good reasons, so the principles in most deadline trades involve veteran players either on the verge of a new contract or with a substantial existing one.
Not every contract will work out for a team, of course. Even a contract that seemed like a good idea at the time has a risk of backfiring for the signing team. Using the ZiPS projection system, we ranked the least desirable contract burdens in baseball by the difference between the player's projected value (based on his expected current dollar value on the free-agent market) and what he actually is scheduled to be paid.
1. Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (minus-$122 million)The Tigers may have made some ill-advised moves this past offseason (coughDoug Fister trade cough), but one good move they did make was unloading Fielder's contract to the Rangers with cash to pick up Ian Kinsler and his smaller remaining contract. Fielder's contract looked like a significant issue going into the season; he was approaching 30 years old and was coming off a down 2013 season. After he required season-ending surgery on a herniated disk in his neck, it's looking worse.
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2. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (minus-$120 million)Albert Pujols is back! At least, that's what a lot of headlines declared at the end of April after his OPS hit 1.000. Now? Not so much. Pujols is having a solid season both offensively and defensively, but he still isn't even at the level of his debut season for the Angels in 2012. Essentially, he's an above-average first baseman at age 34 ... with $180 million remaining on his contract.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (minus-$83 million)Although Cabrera has been unarguably one of the most feared sluggers in baseball in recent years, the Tigers took a gigantic risk in signing him to an extension two years before he would have hit free agency. Cabrera's gigantic extension, the richest in baseball history for a player not named Alex Rodriguez, starts at his age-33 season. Superstars on Cabrera's level of superstardomaren't immune to aging. Mike Ilitch, the Tigers' 85-year-old team owner, has actuarial-related reasons not to be concerned about the middle or end of Cabrera's new deal, but that might not be a consolation for Detroit's general manager five years from now.
4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (minus-$68 million)The Howard contract has fallen to fourth, but only because it's almost halfway paid; it's still a disaster of a contract. A terrible deal at the time of the signing, it ended up being even worse than expected and now looks to be a total loss for the organization.
5. Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers (minus-$66 million)Choo was the ZiPS projection system's least favorite contract last winter, and while his recent injuries have no doubt contributed to his OPS hovering just above .700, players on the wrong side of 30 tend to have an increased risk of injury, which must be taken into consideration. Although ZiPS thinks Choo will still have seasons in which he contributes, the Rangers spent too much for a player with old-player skills.
6. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (minus-$65 million)The idea was that at first base, Mauer would make up for his lack of power with his high BA/OBP skills and stay healthier than he did behind the plate. So far, neither has happened. Given that Mauer is hitting .271 with only three homers, the odds that he hits like John Olerud for the rest of his big contract are looking long.
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (minus-$63 million)We talked a lot about Kemp last week, so there's no need to rehash the tale of Kemp's decline from superstar center fielder to Josh Willingham. Kemp can still contribute to a major league team, but if the Dodgers are expecting anything in return, they will have to eat a serious chunk of his remaining deal.
8. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees (minus-$59 million)Unlike his first big contract with the Rangers, A-Rod's second deal really will go down as one of the worst in MLB history. The good news is that he signed in 2007, so the debacle has only three more years left. He has declined for years offensively and defensively, and coming off his suspension, he'd go into his age-39 season next year having missed an entire season. ZiPS projects only 1.4 WAR remaining for A-Rod. With a $6 million bonus for hitting home run No. 660 -- he's currently at 654 -- it's unlikely to make much of a difference if the Yankees try to play A-Rod in 2015 or just eat the rest of the deal.
9. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (minus-$59 million)Sabathia is the first (and only) pitcher in the top 10 bad-contract rankings. One could argue that teams are getting better at evaluating injury risk for pitchers, keeping relatively few recent hurler contracts from becoming gigantic boondoggles. Sabathia has lost a considerable amount of weight for health reasons, but he certainly seemed more durable as an overweight pitcher. With a rich history of durable pitchers with girth in baseball, perhaps the Yankees should encourage him to eat a few more cheeseburgers while recovering from knee surgery.
10. Carl Crawford, Los Angeles Dodgers (minus-$57 million)There might be a team willing to pay $60 million or so for an injury-prone fourth outfielder. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Dodgers, that team is most likely the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although there's at least a chance that another team is highly optimistic on Matt Kemp's remaining upside and gives him an aggressive valuation, it's very unlikely that anyone would do the same for Crawford.
