Hellickson -105
Hasn't put together a full game yet...last game he got off to a great start and then after they jumped to a big lead I think he pitched to contact. Guthrie on the other hand has been above the rim so far. Two teams maybe headed in opposite directions.
Gallardo +115
Warning, this if all-out chase mode. I really hate to chase and I've more or less driven it from my game, but when I can't help myself I can't help myself. I hate all the hype surrounding Lohse who is still a very marginal pitcher. Gallardo on the other hand has been rocky of late but has probably been one of the more unlucky pitchers in baseball. Brewers lineup simply can't be this bad. Hate to try to predict ice cold bats will wake up but at the price with the better pitcher on the bump, going to do just that.
Hudson -103
Moseley is not very good. He gets by based on his ballpark and he will have that going in his favor today, but guys like Chris Young and Justin Upton don't really care how far back the fences are...when they get a hold of one it's going to clear just the same. Drew's good early fortune has balanced out of late but he's still not swinging a bad stick. They all rate real strong against guys like Moseley and when you can predict those three will hit it's time to back the D'Backs as I've done successfully all year.
White +180
How on earth can you back the Indians against Weaver right? Well, Weaver's start was pushed back last out and he ended up throwing pretty well against Boston anyway. Now I feel you get a groundball inducing rookie against an overrated lineup pitching for a team everyone is looking to fade against the guy who has been the best pitcher in baseball pitching at his home park. Cleveland is fade material probably over the long haul but there are enough sticks, especially from the left side, to score a few off Weaver. On top of that LAA pen isn't that good and even Walden is just a wild flamethrower. Love the value here.
Need these teams to be road warriors today.
If it rains today at Chruchill I'm probably going with Soldat.
If not probably looking between Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man (though probably underneath) and Shackleford...though I won't completely ignore Archx3, Dialed In or Nehro in the pk-3's. Good luck on Derby day.