I don't because of the defense. Good addition with new DC but not sure Chavis has the talent to compete week in and week out in the tough SEC West. A&M's defense was bad last year, especially against the run. When you are rated 102nd nationally in total defense (2014) and are competing against teams like Alabama 12th, Arkansas 10th, Auburn 64th, LSU 9th, Ole Miss 13th and Mississippi State 84th you have some problems.
John Chavis is one of the best defensive coordinators in college football. He will improve the Aggie D but not sure he can revitalize enough to make a huge difference this season.
Sumlin's MO seems to be good offense/poor defense as a head coach.
Interesting Stat: Texas A&M is just 0-9 ATS after an open date. Alabama fits the bill this year on October 17th.
Sumlin's MO seems to be good offense/poor defense as a head coach.
Interesting Stat: Texas A&M is just 0-9 ATS after an open date. Alabama fits the bill this year on October 17th.
If A$M wins less than 8 games I think it will be a disaster for their recruiting. A program like A&M in the SEC needs to keep up their recruiting momentum or they can go down the shitter in a hurry. Especially being in the West. I think their season will depend more on how much the perennial powers in that division are down this year more than anything else. We already know what we're going to get with the Aggies...
I personally don’t see much value in the Under at that price. I expect A&Mto be in the 7-9 win range, so there is little wiggle room from the totalwith a heavily juiced Under. The Aggies should be vastly improved on defense,especially against the run. The defensive line is solid and deep and theaddition of Chavis will certainly have a positive impact. The secondary isstill a disaster and the pass defense will continue to be a problem.
Offensively, A&M will be strong again and have a highprobability of being a top three-four offense in the conference. One factor Iconsider when looking at totals is the special teams, where A&M shouldexcellent, quite possibly the best within the SEC. An excellent or poor specialteams unit can certainly be a factor in stealing or costing a team a victory. Inaddition, recruiting has remained excellent in the top four of the conference thelast two years and top ten in the nation.
Their schedule is about as favorable as a team can hope whenyou play in the SEC West. Cross over games at Vandy and hosting a potentiallydown South Carolina and only two true road games in division. I have four gameswith an incredibly high probability of winning v Ball State, v Nevada, vWestern Carolina and at Vanderbilt. Throw in another two I would rate highprobability wins v Mississippi State and v South Carolina. At this point, youneed A&M to go 1-5 in their remaining six games to cash the Under, where 2-4 or 3-3would be the most probable scenario leaving Texas A&M at 8-4 or 9-3.
Those six games are v Arizona State (in Houston), v Arkansas(in Arlington), v Alabama, at Mississippi, v Auburn and at LSU. I’m probably inthe minority, but I’d rate the entire SEC West razor close, sans MississippiState. I expect A&M to be quite solid this season and am personally passingon the total, but I do find more value in the Over 8 compared to the heavily juiced Under 8.
Just my $0.02.
Best of luck with whatever you decide.
Offensively, A&M will be strong again and have a highprobability of being a top three-four offense in the conference. One factor Iconsider when looking at totals is the special teams, where A&M shouldexcellent, quite possibly the best within the SEC. An excellent or poor specialteams unit can certainly be a factor in stealing or costing a team a victory. Inaddition, recruiting has remained excellent in the top four of the conference thelast two years and top ten in the nation.
Their schedule is about as favorable as a team can hope whenyou play in the SEC West. Cross over games at Vandy and hosting a potentiallydown South Carolina and only two true road games in division. I have four gameswith an incredibly high probability of winning v Ball State, v Nevada, vWestern Carolina and at Vanderbilt. Throw in another two I would rate highprobability wins v Mississippi State and v South Carolina. At this point, youneed A&M to go 1-5 in their remaining six games to cash the Under, where 2-4 or 3-3would be the most probable scenario leaving Texas A&M at 8-4 or 9-3.
Those six games are v Arizona State (in Houston), v Arkansas(in Arlington), v Alabama, at Mississippi, v Auburn and at LSU. I’m probably inthe minority, but I’d rate the entire SEC West razor close, sans MississippiState. I expect A&M to be quite solid this season and am personally passingon the total, but I do find more value in the Over 8 compared to the heavily juiced Under 8.
Just my $0.02.
Best of luck with whatever you decide.
I'd go over. I think Chavis is +7 to that defense (they perform 7 points better) and they return quite a few players. They will be bigger at DT and they will be solid off the end rushing the QB. Of their 8 SEC games they are gonna be facing 5 first time starters I believe and 3 of those will be roadies in College Station. I also don't think many of the SEC defenses which are rebuilding are going to slow down the Aggies offense. Plus you get a bowl game for another win. I don't think Chavis would have taken the job if he did not think there was building blocks to work with. He was making good money in Red Stick with LSU.
Bowl games don't count for regular season wins. I think it's a 50/50 proposition with this over/under. I'm still not convinced that Sumlin is the kind of coach that is going to find success in the SEC West. Chavis SHOULD improve them. At least we won't see as many players out of position. But it's proven to be difficult for any quality defensive coordinators to find a lot of success over the long haul with offensive minded teams like this. This is a big season for the Aggies. They are getting dangerously close to reverting back into Big 12-like obscurity...Does Johnny Football have any eligibilty left?
