Hi folks. I feel that I owe it back to the community to give you guys my two cents in my area of expertise: The Terps. Here's my prediction/preview on our OT win over James Madison and here's my thread on our 32-31 loss to Middle Tennessee State.
As of right now, two starters are likely out, though Ralph Friedgen hasn't announced it yet. Obviously our #1 CB Nolan Carroll (leg) is out for the season, and both senior safety Jamari McCollough (ankle) and junior offensive lineman Bruce Campbell (turf toe) are probably out. McCollough and Campbell haven't been officially ruled out, but they did both miss last week's loss to MTSU.
After one of Friedgen's worst losses ever, a 32-31 last-minute loss to the visiting Blue Raiders, he said that there were 31 plays that didn't go as planned. That just made me laugh, as 31 plays is about one full quarter of the game.
I was more worried about MTSU QB Dwight Dasher being a mobile threat than I should have been. He only ran for 26 yards on us, but it was their passing game that killed us. Dasher threw for 324 yards against the Terps, who are now allowing 466 yards per game on defense (266 passing, 200 rushing).
Yet, for the first time of the season, Maryland finally forced a few turnovers: two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Unfortunately, the Terps lost three fumbles and had an interception of their own.
The rest of the Maryland schedule is going to get harder, and I don't see more than two or three wins coming out of this schedule for the Terps. @ Wake Forest, Virginia, @ Duke, @ North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, @ Florida State and Boston College. At the rate the Terps are playing, it may be a 3-9 season.
Onto the Rutgers game. The Scarlet Knights come in as 2.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -140. The biggest question mark about this game is whether or not Rutgers freshman QB Tom Savage will be ready to go.
Savage has played pretty well as a true freshman but missed the final 13 minutes of Rutgers' 23-15 win over Florida International after taking a big hit to his head. He's been listed as questionable and hasn't been given an official prognosis if he'll miss the game one way or the other.
Rutgers opened the season with a crushing loss to Cincinnati and followed that up with a blowout win over Howard. They beat FIU 23-15, but led 23-0 in the fourth quarter before Savage was knocked out. I think the "narrow win" over FIU is being played up a bit too much here as the game was three possessions before FIU added two scores.
The Rutgers o-line has allowed 9 sacks between the Cincy/FIU games, but Maryland has barely been able to get their hands on the quarterback. Obviously the underlying factor is whether or not Savage will start or even play, but he has three starts under his belt and the Scarlet Knights are grooming him to be the QB of the future, a la Mike Teel.
Taking a look at Maryland's first three games, they have allowed the following "big plays". I categorize big plays as a 10+ yard gain. Here they are:
30 total gains of 10-19 yards.
11 total gains of 20-29 yards.
5 total gains of 30-39 yards.
4 total gains of 40+ yards.
That's 50 total plays in 5 games that have resulted in gains of 10+ yards against the Terps. And despite the blowout loss to California, it wasn't like all of those plays happened in Week 1. Maryland allowed 16 plays of 10+ yards to James Madison and 18 plays of 10+ yards to Middle Tennessee State. Of that number, 33 of them have come in the air (and 17 rushing).
Rutgers is a team with big play potential. Excluding their creampuff game against Howard, they put up 16 plays of 10+ yards against FIU and 18 plays of 10+ yards against Cincinnati.
Prediction: Rutgers wins, probably by more than a field goal. They have more talent on both sides of the ball than Maryland, and the Terps cannot stop anyone at all on defense. I like a play on Rutgers -2.5 and the -140 moneyline. However, that is a bit dicier if Savage is ruled out, so possibly listen for that announcement. I do still think Rutgers wins either way, though.
As of right now, two starters are likely out, though Ralph Friedgen hasn't announced it yet. Obviously our #1 CB Nolan Carroll (leg) is out for the season, and both senior safety Jamari McCollough (ankle) and junior offensive lineman Bruce Campbell (turf toe) are probably out. McCollough and Campbell haven't been officially ruled out, but they did both miss last week's loss to MTSU.
After one of Friedgen's worst losses ever, a 32-31 last-minute loss to the visiting Blue Raiders, he said that there were 31 plays that didn't go as planned. That just made me laugh, as 31 plays is about one full quarter of the game.
I was more worried about MTSU QB Dwight Dasher being a mobile threat than I should have been. He only ran for 26 yards on us, but it was their passing game that killed us. Dasher threw for 324 yards against the Terps, who are now allowing 466 yards per game on defense (266 passing, 200 rushing).
Yet, for the first time of the season, Maryland finally forced a few turnovers: two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Unfortunately, the Terps lost three fumbles and had an interception of their own.
The rest of the Maryland schedule is going to get harder, and I don't see more than two or three wins coming out of this schedule for the Terps. @ Wake Forest, Virginia, @ Duke, @ North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, @ Florida State and Boston College. At the rate the Terps are playing, it may be a 3-9 season.
Onto the Rutgers game. The Scarlet Knights come in as 2.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -140. The biggest question mark about this game is whether or not Rutgers freshman QB Tom Savage will be ready to go.
Savage has played pretty well as a true freshman but missed the final 13 minutes of Rutgers' 23-15 win over Florida International after taking a big hit to his head. He's been listed as questionable and hasn't been given an official prognosis if he'll miss the game one way or the other.
Rutgers opened the season with a crushing loss to Cincinnati and followed that up with a blowout win over Howard. They beat FIU 23-15, but led 23-0 in the fourth quarter before Savage was knocked out. I think the "narrow win" over FIU is being played up a bit too much here as the game was three possessions before FIU added two scores.
The Rutgers o-line has allowed 9 sacks between the Cincy/FIU games, but Maryland has barely been able to get their hands on the quarterback. Obviously the underlying factor is whether or not Savage will start or even play, but he has three starts under his belt and the Scarlet Knights are grooming him to be the QB of the future, a la Mike Teel.
Taking a look at Maryland's first three games, they have allowed the following "big plays". I categorize big plays as a 10+ yard gain. Here they are:
30 total gains of 10-19 yards.
11 total gains of 20-29 yards.
5 total gains of 30-39 yards.
4 total gains of 40+ yards.
That's 50 total plays in 5 games that have resulted in gains of 10+ yards against the Terps. And despite the blowout loss to California, it wasn't like all of those plays happened in Week 1. Maryland allowed 16 plays of 10+ yards to James Madison and 18 plays of 10+ yards to Middle Tennessee State. Of that number, 33 of them have come in the air (and 17 rushing).
Rutgers is a team with big play potential. Excluding their creampuff game against Howard, they put up 16 plays of 10+ yards against FIU and 18 plays of 10+ yards against Cincinnati.
Prediction: Rutgers wins, probably by more than a field goal. They have more talent on both sides of the ball than Maryland, and the Terps cannot stop anyone at all on defense. I like a play on Rutgers -2.5 and the -140 moneyline. However, that is a bit dicier if Savage is ruled out, so possibly listen for that announcement. I do still think Rutgers wins either way, though.
