Tennis Future- Is there value here?

GreenDoberman · Jan 24, 2005

P.Schnyder +5140
N. Dechy +7000

To win women's Australian Open.

They are playing each other, meaning at worst you would have +5140 to win it.
Now granted they would be underdogs in their last 2 matches, but likely not so bad that you couldn't hedge the other side.

What would they need to be in the semis and finals to make it profitable?
:suomi:

HPark1 · Jan 24, 2005

I probably wouldn't bother. Women's tennis isn't exactly filled with parity. There are maybe 6-8 players who can win these majors and then there is a real drop off in talent.

Although with a number of the elite players injured and now a few eliminated its possible. Looking at the draw my guess is that you would still need some sort of injury to Davenport to get to the finals.

Davenport, S. Williams and the winner of Kuznetsova/Sharapova are the real contenders imo.

GreenDoberman · Jan 24, 2005

Basically the draw is loaded on the bottom half.

Lindsay is not exactly immune to injuries or blowups. She's playing Molik and is not exactly a lead-pipe cinch to win (2/1 on current odds).

If Molik wins, I suspect neither Schnyder/Dechy would be greater than 3/1, with Lindsay more around 4 or 5/1. At worse, we can hedge 1.5 in the other direction.

Granted both girls would be big dogs if they made the finals, but at that point they would have to be either greater than 20 or 30 to 1 to be at less than break even.

I'm looking at it strictly mathematically and see a very low risk chance for profitability.

Obviously, I made the bet and will be rooting for both Dechy and Molik.

HPark1 · Jan 24, 2005

IC your trying to crunch the numbers.

I'm far too lazy to work out exact scenario's to see if grinding out a little profit is possible.

I suppose Molik could beat Davenport, hometown support should help.

I think the best QF bet is Kuznetsova to beat Sharapova. Great odds. Sharapova gets all the attention while Kuznetsova still is slightly under the radar (despite winning her first major last year).

gl

GreenDoberman · Jan 24, 2005

Agree Kuz is good value against Sharapova.

Also, Mauresmo could easily knock off Serena.

HPark1 · Jan 24, 2005

This is a great opportunity for Mauresmo to get over the hump. However S. Williams is 8-1 lifetime against her and Mauresmo has a skill of coming up short in big matches. Talent wise at this point they are pretty equal. I would love to see S. Williams lose, dislike her overall behaviour on and off the court. Would never lay the 70-75 cents on Serena. I agree the only way to go is Mauresmo.

Mens note, I believe Federer will wipe out Agassi tonight. Changing of the guard has already taken place and Federer will use Agassi's name to further cement his place as the number 1 player in the world. Don't be fooled by their last match which went 5 sets before Federer prevailed. It was at the US Open where crowd support and inclement weather helped make this a close score. Federer has beaten Agassi his last 4 matches and in regular conditions he will do so again.

gl