Those are all what you might call post-game predictive stats. Teams that win these stats are usually winners of a game, the hard part is predicting them. All these stats tend to happen because of the flow of the game. Teams ahead run the ball more controlling the clock and teams behind tend to take more chances and get more turnovers. If you can make the argument for one team to clearly win the rushing yard battle and turnover battle it is likely you are looking at a game with a big spread.
Best stats for predictive value, at least in my opinion are yards per carry on offense and defense and third down conversions offense and defense. Nothing is certain in value, but these two stats when matching up teams can provide a lot of insight as to who will run the ball well and stick with it and also who will be able to hold the ball for drives.
Best stats for predictive value, at least in my opinion are yards per carry on offense and defense and third down conversions offense and defense. Nothing is certain in value, but these two stats when matching up teams can provide a lot of insight as to who will run the ball well and stick with it and also who will be able to hold the ball for drives.
Offensive yards per carry isn't terribly useful in predicting SU winners. But it can be a useful tool in ferreting out ATS winners. The most important metric for determining the effectiveness of an offense is net passing yards/attempt. But its value in finding ATS winners is limited.
Defensive yards/carry can be a very telling number, both from a SU perspective and an ATS perspective.
Defensive yards/carry can be a very telling number, both from a SU perspective and an ATS perspective.
I think number of possible offensive weapons is a good stat to see. One team may distribute the ball to 11 players per game often, whereas some teams have a much smaller number of players who are involved. The more the merrier. Also, Rushing yards allowed per game says alot about the defensive performance IMO. Even if a team is not very good gainst the pass, they will stay in often if they can shut down the run and keep yards passing against to average.
yards per point is a good stat imo.It can give you good insight into the side and is very helpful for capping totals.What you should do is get the ypp for every team offense and defense.Find the league average to see where they stand.Get it for every game.Use it how you want.L3,hm/rd,etc.To get it just divide their total yards/points they score and do the same for their d.Do not use it just by itself.Points forced and allowed by the d must be accounted for.
All the stats listed in the thread are good.You just have to find what works for you and learn how to assess a value to each one.Capping is tough we are always still learning.
All the stats listed in the thread are good.You just have to find what works for you and learn how to assess a value to each one.Capping is tough we are always still learning.
where do you find red zone efficiency? email me at fbmike@cox.net thankees!
I am not a stats man as any stats can lead down blind alleys, in my experience.
Some years ago I devised a method which would tell me how a team were playing the basics, regardless of the results. Although these didn't take into account turnovers, red zone scoring and final scores, it does help weeding out lucky and unlucky results.
There are always going to be odd results in the NFL but if you bet teams that are playing fundamentally well, taking in consideration the spread, you can pick up some nice winners.
I allot 1 pt for qualifying in the following catagories.
First Downs- 20 or more
Yards per play- 5.0 or more
Rushing Yards - 100 or more
Rushing attempts- 30 or more
Completions- min 18
Comp att- min 30
Completions must be 60% for them to count.
Defensive numbers are a mirror image.
Example: New England last 6 games
(A) NY Jets Off-2 Def-4
(H) Jacksonville 3 5
(H) Miami 1 6
(A) Indianapolis 2 4
(A) Houston 4 5
(H) Dallas 0 6
Now reading these figures, that the Defense has carried this team and only once in 6 games has the Off been above average is no earth shattering news this time of year, but during the season its amazing how they are overlooked.
It could be also said that going into the play-offs, against supposedly better opposition, New England has no margin for error.
To sum up, I only use these figures as a guide, factor in the spread, injuries, weather and a bit of experience, hey presto, a bet.
Sorry got lost, what was the question
Some years ago I devised a method which would tell me how a team were playing the basics, regardless of the results. Although these didn't take into account turnovers, red zone scoring and final scores, it does help weeding out lucky and unlucky results.
There are always going to be odd results in the NFL but if you bet teams that are playing fundamentally well, taking in consideration the spread, you can pick up some nice winners.
I allot 1 pt for qualifying in the following catagories.
First Downs- 20 or more
Yards per play- 5.0 or more
Rushing Yards - 100 or more
Rushing attempts- 30 or more
Completions- min 18
Comp att- min 30
Completions must be 60% for them to count.
Defensive numbers are a mirror image.
Example: New England last 6 games
(A) NY Jets Off-2 Def-4
(H) Jacksonville 3 5
(H) Miami 1 6
(A) Indianapolis 2 4
(A) Houston 4 5
(H) Dallas 0 6
Now reading these figures, that the Defense has carried this team and only once in 6 games has the Off been above average is no earth shattering news this time of year, but during the season its amazing how they are overlooked.
It could be also said that going into the play-offs, against supposedly better opposition, New England has no margin for error.
To sum up, I only use these figures as a guide, factor in the spread, injuries, weather and a bit of experience, hey presto, a bet.
Sorry got lost, what was the question
